Has Dubas failed at his job?

[Throw More Waffles]

Evaluating Marner seems pretty tricky at this point.



You're overthinking this. All I said was that up to this point in their careers, Aho and Rantanen have both played better than Marner in the playoffs. Does that mean that they're "better players"? That would be a different discussion but before changing the subject, why don't first say if you agree or disagree with what I said?

As far as McDavid vs Rantanen, if I had to pick one of them to play for me in the playoffs if they started a week from now, I take McDavid easily. Now you could argue that Rantanen has outplayed him in the playoffs, maybe that's true and maybe it's not true but it's at least an interesting discussion. But even if it is true, that doesn't mean it will be true going forward and IMO there isn't a single GM in the NHL that would choose Rantanen over McDavid. Now ask those same GM's who they would take between Marner/Aho/Rantanen if the playoffs started a week from now, it would be more interesting. My guess is that some might choose Marner but he would get the least votes between the 3.

As far as Aho not even being on the same level as Marner, yeah I don't think that's true at all. I guess you could say that Marner has been a tier above Aho during the regular season but in the playoffs, the opposite is true. So who's the better player? I guess it depends what you value more, regular season performace or playoff performance. You might feel differently but I think the playoffs are more important myself.

I wouldn’t even necessarily say that Marner is better than Aho in the regular season, though I will concede Marner had a better season last year. The year prior? Aho paced for 45 goals. And I was told about a million times in the matthews contract threads that goals are much more valuable than assists.

And even if under the same aav/contract, if Dubas offered Marner straight up for Rantanen he’d be met with hysterical laughter and then a click.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I think it was a superficial 108pt pace team propped up by Matthews unsustainable shooting percentage.

And something called the north division.

 

[Dekes For Days]

But even if it is true, that doesn't mean it will be true going forward

Good advice to remember, especially when talking about production in small samples with no context.

Now ask those same GM's who they would take between Marner/Aho/Rantanen if the playoffs started a week from now, it would be more interesting. My guess is that some might choose Marner but he would get the least votes between the 3.

I would certainly hope GMs would have better decision-making than people on HFboards.

I guess you could say that Marner has been a tier above Aho during the regular season but in the playoffs, the opposite is true.

Man, those 3 games against the worst defensive team in the league playing their 3rd best goalie sure did skew some perceptions of playoff Aho.

 

[kb]

And something called the north division.

Where the 4th place team went to the finals and beat Vegas far easier than they beat the Leafs? That North division?

 

[myleafs]

Marner is overpaid by 1-2 million, we all know this.

Why bring up McDavid whose production drops off like crazy in the playoffs (which is always the knock on Marner), as someone who is not overpaid? Apply the same rules all around.

Marner is also better than Aho and Rantanen.

I am also not sure how much more Couturier would get on the open market, didn't he have a bad year? This contract does have a good chance of being negative value soon.

Last 2 seasons...
McDavid 8 gms 6g 7a 13pts
Marner 12 gms 0g 8a 8pts

 

[myleafs]

Obviously, there has been failure.

However, failure doesn't lie solely on Dubas shoulders, much of what is on this team is still from previous managements decisions, and of course injuries didn't just impact those players brought in but took out their 2nd. best center.
If marner and Matthews cannot accept they were part of the problem, then another failure might be retaining players who aren't accountable.

Another complete disaster this season will see at least one major change.

What is on this team is still from Previous managements decisions? Explain? This team is all Dubas.

 

[egd27]

What is on this team is still from Previous managements decisions? Explain? This team is all Dubas.

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly come to mind instantly. Dermott was also drafted under Lou I believe.

 

[Trapper]

This should be the last year for Mr. Can and we will.

He signed these 4 forwards to big dollars while he still had Kadri/Rielly/Anderson/Brown/Hyman under solid, lower contracts. While he still had depth in Kapanen/Johnsson/etc. Draft picks, etc.

Now the cap is flat, all the above save Rielly are gone (and he’s UFA) and we have absolutely zero playoff success attached to it. Each failure worse than the last.

So Mr. we Can and we will is gambled and lost.

 

[ToneDog]

Last 2 seasons...
McDavid 8 gms 6g 7a 13pts
Marner 12 gms 0g 8a 8pts

Take away his 3 assists during the CBJ collapse of game #4 and it is pretty ugly.

 

[myleafs]

Marner is also better than Aho and Rantanen.

I am also not sure how much more Couturier would get on the open market, didn't he have a bad year? This contract does have a good chance of being negative value soon.

Hmm I don't think so.
Rantanen 6'4 215lbs is a better goal scorer than Marner, points wise is closing the gap quickly and he shows up and produces in the playoffs (52 pts in 43 gms with 18g) all for almost 2 milly less. I take him over Marner any day of the week.

Aho is more comparable but is the much better goal scorer(45 more goals in 9 more gms), is a ppg his last 3 years and a ppg playoff performer with 2.5 milly less per on his contract. I would also take him over Marner.

 

[myleafs]

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly come to mind instantly. Dermott was also drafted under Lou I believe.

But the decisons to resign and give those contracts was all Dubas. The poster was implying that the problems we face were still somewhat past managements fault.

 

[egd27]

But the decisons to resign and give those contracts was all Dubas. The poster was implying that the problems we face were still somewhat past managements fault.

Well they would be incorrect then.

 

[Racer88]

This should be the last year for Mr. Can and we will.

He signed these 4 forwards to big dollars while he still had Kadri/Rielly/Anderson/Brown/Hyman under solid, lower contracts. While he still had depth in Kapanen/Johnsson/etc. Draft picks, etc.

Now the cap is flat, all the above save Rielly are gone (and he’s UFA) and we have absolutely zero playoff success attached to it. Each failure worse than the last.

So Mr. we Can and we will is gambled and lost.

And no indication that anything is going to be different this year

 

[myleafs]

And no indication that anything is going to be different this year

There is a saying that goes along the lines that most people give up on something when success is just around the corner and if they had just kept at it the success would have happened. I hope in the Leafs case that this applies to them because its pretty clear that this is what the management team is counting on, but man, they are pushing it to the limit.

 

[ULF_55]

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly come to mind instantly. Dermott was also drafted under Lou I believe.

How about all the drafted players on the team from previous management?

How many draft picks from Dubas are over age 20?

 

[Racer88]

There is a saying that goes along the lines that most people give up on something when success is just around the corner and if they had just kept at it the success would have happened. I hope in the Leafs case that this applies to them because its pretty clear that this is what the management team is counting on, but man, they are pushing it to the limit.

I hear ya…..

 

[fahad203]

Hmm I don't think so.
Rantanen 6'4 215lbs is a better goal scorer than Marner, points wise is closing the gap quickly and he shows up and produces in the playoffs (52 pts in 43 gms with 18g) all for almost 2 milly less. I take him over Marner any day of the week.

Aho is more comparable but is the much better goal scorer(45 more goals in 9 more gms), is a ppg his last 3 years and a ppg playoff performer with 2.5 milly less per on his contract. I would also take him over Marner.

Rantanen had a 15 point playoff scoring streak dating back last year

Dude is a beast and anyone thinks Marner is better is just out of mind

Rantanen has 52 points in 45 games in playoffs against teams like Vegas and Blues

 

[nuck]

How about all the drafted players on the team from previous management?

How many draft picks from Dubas are over age 20?

So you would be approaching it from the perspective of some weak pre-Dubas drafting leaving the club without value contracts to offset the overpays? Its a fair argument because if they took Carlo instead of Dermott and Toews instead of Piccinich they might not have had to sign Brodie at $5M per. But he did inherit some depth and unloaded Kadri for a rental and a lesser talent, Mango for an AHL prospect, and Kap for a pick. The common denominator was saving money because of what he spent on Tavares and the big 3. The Euro contracts he had to trade were his own deals and the Kadri return was not what they needed but he had to get retention plus plug the RD hole rather than just get maximum return. The pain from the lack of value deals is more to mitigate Kyle's spending rather than because it was the only way to build a Cup contender. He knew about Zaitsev and Marleau when he signed JT, nothing was sprung on him.

To be clear I am glad Lou is gone but I wish they had waited until after the big 3 were resigned. Dubas without the Tavares signing and a couple million less spent on the big 3 would be showing us a completely different team. One year too early for the boy wonder and that's not on KD at all, its on Shanny. Right now the biggest thing on Dubas back isn't Lou related, its what he did his first two years while figuring out the job.

Lou's pîcks represent Lou's preferences, he didn't bird dog any of them, nor did Kyle and a lot of the scouts who created the Leaf's annual draft lists crossed over the two regimes and even predated Lou. GMs will trend the type of talent their club will select but they aren't going off the board to find truculence or dangles. Tampa just has better scouts than TO

 

[Stephen]

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly come to mind instantly. Dermott was also drafted under Lou I believe.

I don't understand why people tend to draw such clear distinctions between the Lamoriello and Dubas eras when Dubas was the Leafs assistant GM under Lamoriello. Aside from direct day to day Marlies responsibilities, you would assume Dubas did enough in his AGM role in the NHL for Shanahan to say "yep, that's my guy going forward."

 

[ULF_55]

So you would be approaching it from the perspective of some weak pre-Dubas drafting leaving the club without value contracts to offset the overpays? Its a fair argument because if they took Carlo instead of Dermott and Toews instead of Piccinich they might not have had to sign Brodie at $5M per. But he did inherit some depth and unloaded Kadri for a rental and a lesser talent, Mango for an AHL prospect, and Kap for a pick. The common denominator was saving money because of what he spent on Tavares and the big 3. The Euro contracts he had to trade were his own deals and the Kadri return was not what they needed but he had to get retention plus plug the RD hole rather than just get maximum return. The pain from the lack of value deals is more to mitigate Kyle's spending than because it was the only way to build a Cup contender. He knew about Zaitsev and Marleau when he signed JT, nothing was sprung on him.

To be clear I am glad Lou is gone but I wish they had waited until after the big 3 were resigned. Dubas without the Tavares signing and a couple million less spent on the big 3 would be showing us a completely different team. One year too early for the boy wonder and that's not on KD at all, its on Shanny. Right now the biggest thing on Dubas back isn't Lou related, its what he did his first two years while figuring out the job.

Lou's pîcks represent Lou's preferences, he didn't bird dog any of them, nor did Kyle and a lot of the scouts who created the Leaf's annual draft lists crossed over the two regimes and even predated Lou. GMs will trend the type of talent their club will select but they aren't going off the board to find truculence or dangles. Tampa just has better scouts than TO

Yes, some players have been dealt from those drafts, but honestly other than Kadri, who wrote his own ticket out of town, there really isn't any homeruns. Rielly was 5th. overall, so he's just a good pick, and I'm not as high on him as many. I just don't see the required smarts to be a pillar of strength on the blueline.

Dubas didn't get here on his own, and I hold him accountable, but equally I hold the players accountable.

The team is missing a leader, that isn't just on Dubas but on those who came before.

 

[supermann_98]

Marner is overpaid by 1-2 million, we all know this.

Why bring up McDavid whose production drops off like crazy in the playoffs (which is always the knock on Marner), as someone who is not overpaid? Apply the same rules all around.

Marner is also better than Aho and Rantanen.

I am also not sure how much more Couturier would get on the open market, didn't he have a bad year? This contract does have a good chance of being negative value soon.

 

[egd27]

The team is missing a leader, that isn't just on Dubas but on those who came before.

How so?

 

[supermann_98]

Hmm I don't think so.
Rantanen 6'4 215lbs is a better goal scorer than Marner, points wise is closing the gap quickly and he shows up and produces in the playoffs (52 pts in 43 gms with 18g) all for almost 2 milly less. I take him over Marner any day of the week.

Aho is more comparable but is the much better goal scorer(45 more goals in 9 more gms), is a ppg his last 3 years and a ppg playoff performer with 2.5 milly less per on his contract. I would also take him over Marner.

Oh yeah? well Mitch is loved by the players in the dressing room and is great in the community, didn't you see him at Sick Kids Hospital taking pictures with the kids? That's worth an extra $2.5-3m easily, plus he "kills penalties" or something like that too

 

[Racer88]

I sure will be glad when the season starts so we have some fresh stuff to talk about

 

[Menzinger]

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly come to mind instantly. Dermott was also drafted under Lou I believe.

Dermott was taken in the Marner draft when Hunter-Dubas were co-managing things