Has Dubas failed at his job?

[ALine]

There's zero reason to assume that any marner deal now will be a huge L. And considering the flat cap, a marner deal makes a ton of sense. Sorry but when you say riding it out is "all you can do", that's just wrong and shows a lack of imagination.

Stands to reason if it makes sense for us to move the contract now, it doesn't make a whole heck of a lot for a team to acquire him now.

I see a marner trade now being like the Phaneuf deal. A collection of much lesser pieces for about a cap equal trade, just expiring sooner. No one major piece, current or futures, to be had. Last years playoff woes and contract aside, he is still one of the leagues best u25 player and is a significant part of the team.

What sort of deal do you imagine teams would bring to the table for Marner?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Stands to reason if it makes sense for us to move the contract now, it doesn't make a whole heck of a lot for a team to acquire him now.

I see a marner trade now being like the Phaneuf deal. A collection of much lesser pieces for about a cap equal trade, just expiring sooner. No one major piece, current or futures, to be had. Last years playoff woes and contract aside, he is still one of the leagues best u25 player and is a significant part of the team.

What sort of deal do you imagine teams would bring to the table for Marner?

Not true at all. The problem with Marner (for us) is that he has a huge cap hit and he's been a disappointment in the playoffs. There are teams that care more about real dollars then cap space, don't have cup aspirations but they do want to make the playoffs and sell tickets. Marner's an entertaining player so he'll help sell tickets and he's great during the regular season so he'll help make the playoffs. He's also much cheaper in terms of real dollars than in terms of cap hit so ... bottom line is that Marner isn't worth as much to us as he would be to some other teams.

Don't kid yourself, if we were willing to part with Marner, we'd get a ton back for him.

 

[mydnyte]

Thats fair that Hyman wasn't a threat or that a lot of plays could have been finished by someone with more skill but whatever line he played on seemed to get elevated. Also, how many goals were scored because of his puck retrieval skills or being able to keep the play in the offensive zone because of his relentlessness? Almost offsets it.

Having said that. Im glad we didnt over pay him and someone else did. His play style won't age well and I wouldn't have given him more than 3 years at around 4M. I look forward to having some of our young talent like Amriov who might be able to be Matthews left flank for years to come. With our cap, having young players like he and Robertson in the top 6 on ELCs is gonna be huge

we didnt actually score many goals from his puck retrieval skills, because he never passed the puck, i swear, 1/2 his assists are from failed shot attempts that got to Matthews by accident.
Hyman is an analytic guys's wet dream, and thats why he 'elevated' every line he was on, because the possession stats went through the roof, because he always 'had' the puck, though, it was typically pinned against the boards, but, statistically, he was superman in that regard.

I agree whole heartedly that our ELC players are going to be a key component, but, we need to make sure we dont rush them, as I'd love to see Robertson on the top line LW spot, but, he cant handle it physically at all, and Amirov should be a min of 2 seasons out before he even gets a look at this side of the pond.
If we are lucky, we sig one long term and cheap, otherwise, we use the Chi approach when they werealways Cup contenders, and build up the young guy's stats and trade them away before they get expensive, restock, rinse, repeat.

 

[ULF_55]

I blame management more than the player. We can't really blame Marner for being who he is. It's like asking a watercolour artist to build a house.

They had to evaluate the player and know what they were getting, and still chose to pay $11m.

Marner has always been this player. He's a winger who plays a soft, outside skill game, takes a lot of risks with the puck, is turnover prone and hasn't really changed his style since he played junior.

You know you're getting a flashy point-producer who is going to put butts in seats during the regular season but is going to struggle to have an impact when teams buckle down defensively and refs throw away whistles.

Hard to argue against your point that management who drafted the these players are accountable for their drafting. Now of course Dubas didn't draft marner, but management did.

Whether Dubas overpaid marner by 2 million should be irrelevant unless your argument is he is just mailing it in as he's got his money and isn't hungry enough because it isn't about winning, his ultimate goal was the cash and not the Cup.

I'm not sure that is the case, I could be wrong but I think if marner was making $9mm per year, he's still play the same way.

 

[ULF_55]

Not true at all. The problem with Marner (for us) is that he has a huge cap hit and he's been a disappointment in the playoffs. There are teams that care more about real dollars then cap space, don't have cup aspirations but they do want to make the playoffs and sell tickets. Marner's an entertaining player so he'll help sell tickets and he's great during the regular season so he'll help make the playoffs. He's also much cheaper in terms of real dollars than in terms of cap hit so ... bottom line is that Marner isn't worth as much to us as he would be to some other teams.

Don't kid yourself, if we were willing to part with Marner, we'd get a ton back for him.

He has what in real money over the next 4 years, $25mm?

So a team without Cap constraints would get him for 6.3 per season for the next 4 years?

Take into account the other team would be moving contract(s) out on top of that and the Leafs could take up to $11mm incoming.

I think you are correct they could get a good return and I think there'd be quite a few teams lining up to bid for him.

 

[ALine]

Not true at all. The problem with Marner (for us) is that he has a huge cap hit and he's been a disappointment in the playoffs. There are teams that care more about real dollars then cap space, don't have cup aspirations but they do want to make the playoffs and sell tickets. Marner's an entertaining player so he'll help sell tickets and he's great during the regular season so he'll help make the playoffs. He's also much cheaper in terms of real dollars than in terms of cap hit so ... bottom line is that Marner isn't worth as much to us as he would be to some other teams.

Don't kid yourself, if we were willing to part with Marner, we'd get a ton back for him.

I wasn't so aware of the 'real dollar' situation.
So the ducks, yotes, sabres, devils, preds, flames, maybe a dallas or philly tier of teams should be the ones to look at. Still hard to see that one great piece coming back but some interesting 4 quarters for a loonie type of deal.
Calgary in particular I think could be a good trade partner. Checks your boxes and has some guys that I could see filling out the middle six and defence nicely.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I wasn't so aware of the 'real dollar' situation.
So the ducks, yotes, sabres, devils, preds, flames, maybe a dallas or philly tier of teams should be the ones to look at. Still hard to see that one great piece coming back but some interesting 4 quarters for a loonie type of deal.
Calgary in particular I think could be a good trade partner. Checks your boxes and has some guys that I could see filling out the middle six and defence nicely.

IMHO we don't need one great piece coming back. Even after trading Marner we still have 3 awesome forwards but we'd also be able to ice a deeper much better balanced lineup. When was the last time a player that young, coming off a 1st all-star type season who's locked up for 4 years at a bargain price in real dollar terms was even available? The answer is probably never so I do believe we would get back a TON for him.

Marner's a supremely talented player and I'd be sad to see him go but we haven't had success with him and with the cap remaining flat for a while yet, it's hard to see us going far with this top heavy lineup. Trading him is obviously a gamble, but it's a gamble I think we should take because rolling the dice with the same top heavy core is also a gamble and we've done nothing but roll craps with this core so far.

 

[ALine]

IMHO we don't need one great piece coming back. Even after trading Marner we still have 3 awesome forwards but we'd also be able to ice a deeper much better balanced lineup. When was the last time a player that young, coming off a 1st all-star type season who's locked up for 4 years at a bargain price in real dollar terms was even available? The answer is probably never so I do believe we would get back a TON for him.

Well i have been trying to find an example of what a marner trade would look like, but Ill take your word for it and stop looking for an answer that doesn't exist.

not that I particularly want to trade him for the record. Like I said, I'm good with the 'ride it out' plan. I still believe in the boys

 

[ACC1224]

Well i have been trying to find an example of what a marner trade would look like, but Ill take your word for it and stop looking for an answer that doesn't exist.

not that I particularly want to trade him for the record. Like I said, I'm good with the 'ride it out' plan. I still believe in the boys

It seems like the kind of deal that will be looked back on as a mistake. It can be added to the long list of mistakes this team has compiled, possibly at the top of the list.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It seems like the kind of deal that will be looked back on as a mistake. It can be added to the long list of mistakes this team has compiled, possibly at the top of the list.

Nonsense.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well i have been trying to find an example of what a marner trade would look like, but Ill take your word for it and stop looking for an answer that doesn't exist.

not that I particularly want to trade him for the record. Like I said, I'm good with the 'ride it out' plan. I still believe in the boys

Players that good and that young hardly ever get traded so examples are hard to find. The closest example might be the Lindros trade. Quebec was in a tough spot because they were basically forced to trade him but they still were able to extract a huge return and it worked out very well for them indeed. Marner's not quite as valuable now as Lindros was then but he's not that far behind either.

 

[Trapper]

Hard to argue against your point that management who drafted the these players are accountable for their drafting. Now of course Dubas didn't draft marner, but management did.

Whether Dubas overpaid marner by 2 million should be irrelevant unless your argument is he is just mailing it in as he's got his money and isn't hungry enough because it isn't about winning, his ultimate goal was the cash and not the Cup.

I'm not sure that is the case, I could be wrong but I think if marner was making $9mm per year, he's still play the same way.

That’s the real problem isn’t it?
When Dubas put the core together (and I say Dubas) because the guy that pays the big dollars is the thatguy, what are you willing to accept?
They all play that way which is the issue.

If it wasn’t an issue, then we wouldn’t hear Shanahan say killer instinct, harder to play against, etc. These guys aren’t it. They will bring regular season hockey to the playoffs. A knife to a gun fight. I mean one time, 2 times ok. But 5 times? That pretty much defines how they play for me.

 

[ToneDog]

That’s the real problem isn’t it?
When Dubas put the core together (and I say Dubas) because the guy that pays the big dollars is the thatguy, what are you willing to accept?
They all play that way which is the issue.

If it wasn’t an issue, then we wouldn’t hear Shanahan say killer instinct, harder to play against, etc. These guys aren’t it. They will bring regular season hockey to the playoffs. A knife to a gun fight. I mean one time, 2 times ok. But 5 times? That pretty much defines how they play for me.

Not sure I would say 5 times but if they insist on bringing knives to a gun fight and Dubas refuses to go in a different direction, the solution is to surround them with players that will bring guns to a gun fight.

 

[Dekes For Days]

When was the last time a player that young, coming off a 1st all-star type season who's locked up for 4 years at a bargain price in real dollar terms was even available?

That should probably tell you something. Players like that aren't traded because it's a horrible move.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

But Tavares still wasn't needed when he signed. That cap space was better suited elsewhere (like defense) and he cost himself more cap space by ensuring Matthews/Marner would have higher contract demands. He had a team of elite young players, you surround them with middle 6/2nd pair vets

Tavares overall probably cost the team $15m in cap space per year

There's nothing wrong with our defence, our top 4 has been the best its ever been since 2004.

Tavares is absolutely needed. There's a gaping hole that on that 1B line if he's not healthy.

 

[4thline]

Players that good and that young hardly ever get traded so examples are hard to find. The closest example might be the Lindros trade. Quebec was in a tough spot because they were basically forced to trade him but they still were able to extract a huge return and it worked out very well for them indeed. Marner's not quite as valuable now as Lindros was then but he's not that far behind either.

I'd argue that Seguin/Carter/Richards were all in the ballpark, hell at the end of this season even Nash is only 2-3 years older

 

[The CyNick]

Not true at all. The problem with Marner (for us) is that he has a huge cap hit and he's been a disappointment in the playoffs. There are teams that care more about real dollars then cap space, don't have cup aspirations but they do want to make the playoffs and sell tickets. Marner's an entertaining player so he'll help sell tickets and he's great during the regular season so he'll help make the playoffs. He's also much cheaper in terms of real dollars than in terms of cap hit so ... bottom line is that Marner isn't worth as much to us as he would be to some other teams.

Don't kid yourself, if we were willing to part with Marner, we'd get a ton back for him.

A first, a roster player with a decent sized contract, a prospect (not an elite one) and some other filler (likely picks)

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'd argue that Seguin/Carter/Richards were all in the ballpark, hell at the end of this season even Nash is only 2-3 years older

Maybe, depends on how big the ballpark is I guess.

A first, a roster player with a decent sized contract, a prospect (not an elite one) and some other filler (likely picks)

LOL.

 

[4thline]

Maybe, depends on how big the ballpark is I guess.

Seguin was younger and not as proven, but I think the other two are fair, especially once you factor in size/position/playoff performance/ and perception advantages.

C's with size, two way play, in Carter's case a major goal scoring advantage, and reps for playoff grit/ leadership likely close the production gap against a playmaking wing. And come next offseason I think Nash enters that conversation, as he was always viewed as more than his production should have dictated, whereas leaguewide Marner is viewed as less. Still quite a haul

 

[Racer88]

Not sure I would say 5 times but if they insist on bringing knives to a gun fight and Dubas refuses to go in a different direction, the solution is to surround them with players that will bring guns to a gun fight.

I’m not sure you can surround them with those players with all the money tied up in the expensive 3 1/2

 

[Gary Nylund]

Seguin was younger and not as proven, but I think the other two are fair, especially once you factor in size/position/playoff performance/ and perception advantages.

C's with size, two way play, in Carter's case a major goal scoring advantage, and reps for playoff grit/ leadership likely close the production gap against a playmaking wing. And come next offseason I think Nash enters that conversation, as he was always viewed as more than his production should have dictated, whereas leaguewide Marner is viewed as less. Still quite a haul

I don't follow the rest of the league that closely TBH so I guess I'll take your word for it. Not sure how Marner is viewed around the league but I'd guess he's viewed as at least a top 20 or so player in the league, and one that is very entertaining and will help sell tickets. He's also under contract for four more years (prime years) for a bargain cash wise so to a team that values real dollars over cap space, that adds to his value. He's also young, coming off a 1st all-star season and just entering his prime so I'd be surprised if those other players measured up to that, value wise.

 

[ToneDog]

I’m not sure you can surround them with those players with all the money tied up in the expensive 3 1/2

I agree but our GM and President think they will (not can) win with this core.

 

[Racer88]

There's nothing wrong with our defence, our top 4 has been the best its ever been since 2004.

Tavares is absolutely needed. There's a gaping hole that on that 1B line if he's not healthy.

He is needed now that he is taking up 11 million of the available cap but the question still remains would the team be better off with a couple of 5.5 million dollar players or 3- 3.75 million dollar players etc etc instead of him

 

[Racer88]

I agree but our GM and President think they will (not can) win with this core.

I know……scary isn’t it.

 

[geo25]

He is needed now that he is taking up 11 million of the available cap but the question still remains would the team be better off with a couple of 5.5 million dollar players or 3- 3.75 million dollar players etc etc instead of him

Dosen't he have a NTC that kicks in next year?