Has Dubas failed at his job?

[Trapper]

Not sure I would say 5 times but if they insist on bringing knives to a gun fight and Dubas refuses to go in a different direction, the solution is to surround them with players that will bring guns to a gun fight.

Trouble is you are paying these guys major dollars to get it done.
If you keep having to bring in guys to play the way they should be, you probably don’t have a wise investment on the core.

It was Kucherov with a fractured rib and Hedman with a torn miniscus. Not just Johnny 4th line.

 

[Racer88]

Dosen't he have a NTC that kicks in next year?

He had it right from the start as far as that goes but I have called it a mistake to have signed Tavares in the first place. That said he could have mitigated the pain by negotiating properly with Marner and matthews.
He risked everything on the Tavares deal on 2 assumptions
#1 that he could get Matthews and Marner at workable amounts
#2 that the cap would continue to grow.
Both assumptions were wrong

 

[4thline]

I don't follow the rest of the league that closely TBH so I guess I'll take your word for it. Not sure how Marner is viewed around the league but I'd guess he's viewed as at least a top 20 or so player in the league, and one that is very entertaining and will help sell tickets. He's also under contract for four more years (prime years) for a bargain cash wise so to a team that values real dollars over cap space, that adds to his value. He's also young, coming off a 1st all-star season and just entering his prime so I'd be surprised if those other players measured up to that, value wise.

Just focusing on Carter/Richards,
they were 25 at the time of the deals, so also young/just entering their prime
contractually they were on the current equivalent of ~7.3m x 8
Over the previous 3 seasons Carter was 6th in the league in goals, Richards 28th, they were 25th/26th in points

Carter had a bit of a playoff ghost rep, but Richards was seen as the posterboy playoff captain warrior, fresh off a gold medal with Canada at the olympics.

He (Marner) is definitely a higher profile producer, but I think the playstyles and league preference close the gap enough.

Nash there's no real statistical case to be made. The NHL had a love affair with his size and skillset and almost unanimously decided that his production was being brought down in Columbus.

I don't think any of the 3 templates would be outlandish next off season

Nash- Future 1st+ 1st round pick prospect + Top 6 forward + Young top 9 forward
Richards - top 2-3 prospect in hockey + young top 9 forward with rare skillset
Carter- Top 10 pick, young former top 10 pick producing as a top 6 player

 

[Ashdown2]

He had it right from the start as far as that goes but I have called it a mistake to have signed Tavares in the first place. That said he could have mitigated the pain by negotiating properly with Marner and matthews.
He risked everything on the Tavares deal on 2 assumptions
#1 that he could get Matthews and Marner at workable amounts
#2 that the cap would continue to grow.
Both assumptions were wrong

people need to stop, playing this imaginary game like you knew covid would happen and the cap would be stagnant for 2 years. This after a 15 straight years of 2 to 5 mil PER YEAR increase in the cap.
just stop its a stupid narrative.

 

[ToneDog]

people need to stop, playing this imaginary game like you knew covid would happen and the cap would be stagnant for 2 years. This after a 15 straight years of 2 to 5 mil PER YEAR increase in the cap.
just stop its a stupid narrative.

Not true but close.

 

[Racer88]

people need to stop, playing this imaginary game like you knew covid would happen and the cap would be stagnant for 2 years. This after a 15 straight years of 2 to 5 mil PER YEAR increase in the cap.
just stop its a stupid narrative.

Nobody is saying they knew that COVID would happen, it’s just that he shouldn’t have put all his eggs in one basket. He should have been responsible in predicting future growth. He is the only GM that spent 50% of the cap on 4 similar players. He risked everything and has now put us in a very tough spot. Other teams that are up against the cap have more balanced teams.

 

[noo]

Not true but close.

Damn.. looking at that, the cap would have been around 85 million, at least, going into this year.. and with the new TV contracts it could have been one of the 4-5 million jumps next year, or maybe even more..?

That's an extra 4.5 million this year at minimum, and probably 10 million by next year..

Wouldn't be bargain shopping so hard if that was the case lol

 

[Canadian Finn]

who would have thunk it.

a millennial GM who couldn't handle his finances and now doesn't have enough money to pay the bills.

you don't spend what you don't have, assuming you will have it in the future.

 

[ToneDog]

Damn.. looking at that, the cap would have been around 85 million, at least, going into this year.. and with the new TV contracts it could have been one of the 4-5 million jumps next year, or maybe even more..?

That's an extra 4.5 million this year at minimum, and probably 10 million by next year..

Wouldn't be bargain shopping so hard if that was the case lol

They are not stupid. Proba9bly crunched the numbers and predicted a steady rise in the cap. Problem now is that they are standing pat with the core even though they know the cap will remain virtually flat for who know how long?

 

[ACC1224]

Damn.. looking at that, the cap would have been around 85 million, at least, going into this year.. and with the new TV contracts it could have been one of the 4-5 million jumps next year, or maybe even more..?

That's an extra 4.5 million this year at minimum, and probably 10 million by next year..

Wouldn't be bargain shopping so hard if that was the case lol

The bargain signings league wide the last few years would have just received more salary to eat up some of the difference.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Nobody is saying they knew that COVID would happen, it’s just that he shouldn’t have put all his eggs in one basket. He should have been responsible in predicting future growth. He is the only GM that spent 50% of the cap on 4 similar players. He risked everything and has now put us in a very tough spot. Other teams that are up against the cap have more balanced teams.

Simply not true. If you tried to prove it besides just saying "because I said so", you will quickly realize how strong Leafs are on paper. Simple go to cap friendly and scan some rosters. Literally going to be one team you're truly scared of: Tampa.

Playoff choking is the one and only concern. We won't know what this team is until round 1.

 

[Canadian Finn]

actually, making the playoffs would be the primary concern.

only then can we look to get past the first round.

I'm not convinced this team of misfit losers is going to make the playoffs.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

actually, making the playoffs would be the primary concern.

only then can we look to get past the first round.

I'm not convinced this team of misfit losers is going to make the playoffs.

Which rosters in the Atlantic do you think are better? Tampa and Florida have cases but as of today none of the other 5 have anywhere close to as much depth.

 

[Canadian Finn]

I've learned what your roster says (especially before the season starts) doesn't provide much validity when it comes to making the playoffs.

too many years staring at rosters during preseason before I realized the roster isn't going to determine much of anything.

 

[egd27]

Damn.. looking at that, the cap would have been around 85 million, at least, going into this year.. and with the new TV contracts it could have been one of the 4-5 million jumps next year, or maybe even more..?

That's an extra 4.5 million this year at minimum, and probably 10 million by next year..

Wouldn't be bargain shopping so hard if that was the case lol

Maybe......but if the cap went up as you propose, so would the demands of the players and their agents. So it may not be as big a difference as you think.

 

[Racer88]

Simply not true. If you tried to prove it besides just saying "because I said so", you will quickly realize how strong Leafs are on paper. Simple go to cap friendly and scan some rosters. Literally going to be one team you're truly scared of: Tampa.

Playoff choking is the one and only concern. We won't know what this team is until round 1.

Hahahahah. Strong on paper means absolutely nothing. I live in the real world. They are a mirage after the expensive 4.
They have patchwork goaltending, the defence is going to have to rely on rookies and bargain players.
When 38 year old Spezza is their best forward after the expensive 4, I wouldn’t consider great on paper

 

[noo]

They are not stupid. Proba9bly crunched the numbers and predicted a steady rise in the cap. Problem now is that they are standing pat with the core even though they know the cap will remain virtually flat for who know how long?

Yeah.. sadly it looks like another 3-5 years of cap going up by 1 mil max...

I like that they're keeping the core though.. for this year anyways.. we'll see how it plays out, hopefully they can f***n step it up!

The bargain signings league wide the last few years would have just received more salary to eat up some of the difference.

Maybe......but if the cap went up as you propose, so would the demands of the players and their agents. So it may not be as big a difference as you think.

Yeah, so let's see using this year, same 4.5 million increase..

Bunting/Gabriel might go from 750k each to like.. 1.25 mil?
Ritchie goes from 2.5 to maybe 3 - 3.5..

Extra paid: 1.5 - 2 million

That leaves another 2.5 - 3 million.. not really much, true.. especially when players cost more.. but you can replace one of those guys with someone who costs ~4-5

So yeah, it's not really a huge difference and would probably still be bargain hunting.. but could have one player that's quite a bit better than the ones you got now

 

[Ashdown2]

actually, making the playoffs would be the primary concern.
only then can we look to get past the first round.
I'm not convinced this team of misfit losers is going to make the playoffs.

Nobody is saying they knew that COVID would happen, it’s just that he shouldn’t have put all his eggs in one basket. He should have been responsible in predicting future growth. He is the only GM that spent 50% of the cap on 4 similar players. He risked everything and has now put us in a very tough spot. Other teams that are up against the cap have more balanced teams.

you cant say "no one knew covid" and then follow up with predicting future growth.
At the time using current projections the cap should be close to 90 million now. so it wouldnt be 50% and so on and so on .... Leafs are the only team in the league that had to sign top talents in the league pre covid. the UFA class of 2019 IF FULLLL of horrifying contracts because of this.

 

[ottomaddox]

people need to stop, playing this imaginary game like you knew covid would happen and the cap would be stagnant for 2 years. This after a 15 straight years of 2 to 5 mil PER YEAR increase in the cap.
just stop its a stupid narrative.

I agree, but not every GM spends to the cap. Some are prudent, and some are told by owners to be prudent.

Let's pretend the cap didn't flatten. Why must Dubas spend to the limit? Isn't it wise to leave a little for the trade deadline, ufas, etc?

 

[sparxx87]

Maybe......but if the cap went up as you propose, so would the demands of the players and their agents. So it may not be as big a difference as you think.

Exactly. An example would be all these 8-9M contracts for D men would likely be 10-11M. Reilly’s agent is asking for 10-11, not 8-9.

People keep talking about the cap inflating but Marner and Matthews got 5 and 6 year deals. An organization needs to go 8 years to really get value at the back end when they go so high on cap dollars. Those 3 $11M contracts are all top 10 in the league… Where did they expect them to be in 3 years?

 

[SnizzNasty88]

He has absolutely failed miserably. One of the worst GMs in the league by far. He's done a few good things but mostly bad and has not a single result to show for it. I knew we were doomed the minute we pushed Sweet Sweet Lou out the door. An absolutely brutal and disgustingly bad move by ShanaSCAM. Please don't make me type all of Dubass' terrible errors I'll be typing for an hour.

 

[The CyNick]

people need to stop, playing this imaginary game like you knew covid would happen and the cap would be stagnant for 2 years. This after a 15 straight years of 2 to 5 mil PER YEAR increase in the cap.
just stop its a stupid narrative.

Covid is no excuse. It's the same cap for every team. Every team who is operating close to the cap would like to have a rising cap as I'm sure Dubas would. Lou would like to have more cap space, yet he keeps crushing playoff success. Tampa definitely would like more room and they are managing to be in the middle of a dynasty is a flat cap world.

 

[Sniper99]

He has absolutely failed miserably. One of the worst GMs in the league by far. He's done a few good things but mostly bad and has not a single result to show for it. I knew we were doomed the minute we pushed Sweet Sweet Lou out the door. An absolutely brutal and disgustingly bad move by ShanaSCAM. Please don't make me type all of Dubass' terrible errors I'll be typing for an hour.

I dont think hes "One of the worst GM's" anymore. Probably THEE worst at this point.

gets fleeced at contract negotiation time. Promised Nylander he wouldnt trade him if he re-signed. Cute.
Trades 1st's for guys that are gone at end of season or are injury prone

Oh but hey hes good with analytics.

 

[HEAVY DUTY]

no. but he's definitely sucked at it.

 

[Racer88]

Covid is no excuse. It's the same cap for every team. Every team who is operating close to the cap would like to have a rising cap as I'm sure Dubas would. Lou would like to have more cap space, yet he keeps crushing playoff success. Tampa definitely would like more room and they are managing to be in the middle of a dynasty is a flat cap world.

All true but a few misguided souls want to excuse Dubas because COVID held the cap flat