Has Cale Makar already surpassed a prime Erik Karlsson in just his first 4 years?

[majormajor]

Fair enough. But again… he was 4th in scoring overall. There’s just no way to square that Makar is that dominant offensively- yet.

I don’t like to use GA stats. And I said so when someone was using it to defend Karlsson. I’d much rather relative shot metrics. As I said, - going off memory- Karlsson’s weren’t great but not terrible either. I haven’t looked at Makar’s.

xGA is expected goals against, it is a shot metric that uses shot location. The analysts that were using corsi five years ago have now all switched to xG.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Loving the part where the EK fans are using on-ice goals against vs. Makar....

I'm old enough to remember EK leading the league in this stat and being close multiple times. If you want to suggest that makes Makar a bad defender....

Literally nobody is saying Makar is a bad defender. Nobody. You just made that up out of thin air, so congrats.

People are binging up GA because the claim was made that Karlsson did not have the defensive game that Makar had. The GA in their two playoff runs suggest that this is false. The eye test suggests this is false. Literally everything suggests this is false, except for people who didn't watch Karlsson in his prime.

 

[Stephen]

Year/ pts/ games/ league rank /defenseman rank/ team rank
Karlsson
11-12 78/81/11/1/2
13-14 74 /82 /14/1/1
14-15 66/82/23/1/1
15-16 82/82/4/1/1
16-17 71/77/17/2/1
Makar
20-21 44/44/52/6/4
21-22 86/77/21/2/4

Just off boxscore, Makar got to Karlsson's worst prime season this year, and doesn't match yet 15/16 Karlsson..

I think the problem begins and ends with "just off the boxscore."

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

xGA is expected goals against, it is a shot metric that uses shot location. The analysts that were using corsi five years ago have now all switched to xG.

Okay cool. Post the numbers. Pick the best seasons for both. And thanks for putting up an argument that makes sense.

 

[MK9]

There is an asinine amount of posts lately willing to elevate young players to foolish status levels with only a handful of years into their careers. It's ridiculous and out of touch.

 

[Esq]

He has surpassed Karlsson. Now on to debating him vs Lidstrom.

I think you'll be debating that one with yourself only.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I think the problem begins and ends with "just off the boxscore."

I hope you didn't hurt yourself from the effort thinking up this scintillating analysis.

 

[DFAC]

Not yet but he will pretty soon

 

[majormajor]

Okay cool. Post the numbers. Pick the best seasons for both. And thanks for putting up an argument that makes sense.

I did - they're in the same table I linked to in the previous post. At naturalstattrick you can see all the corsi, goals, and xG results in the same table, organized any which way you want.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Well Makar can actually play defense

I keep hearing this but can he really? How does one have 5 points in a game and end up -1?

Makar is freaking amazing. He’s so good id trade Drai for him 1:1. But let’s not go super overboard and act like he’s a 2-way dominant d man. He’s not. And that’s okay.

 

[Stephen]

I hope you didn't hurt yourself from the effort thinking up this scintillating analysis.

If you're falling back on the statistical argument based on Karlsson's work up till 27 vs a guy who is 23, I don't think you're comparing apples to apples. Like at all. Secondly, the basis of Makar's greatness is completely independent of a stats line because his on ice play is just an exclamation mark.

But if we want to compare Makar vs Karlsson on one interesting point, he's already tied Karlsson in playoff points with 53. And done so in 49 games only vs 67.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

He’s still on his ELC. Makar is the best defenseman I’ve ever seen (give or take Lindstrom but they play completely different games). But, he just hasn’t accomplished what Erik Karlsson has accomplished.

After this season, he could have 1 more Conn Smyth and Stanley Cup than Karlsson will ever have though. And I do think Makar could be looked at as a top 5 D of all time when it’s all said and done.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I keep hearing this but can he really? How does one have 5 points in a game and end up -1?

Makar is freaking amazing. He’s so good id trade Drai for him 1:1. But let’s not go super overboard and act like he’s a 2-way dominant d man. He’s not. And that’s okay.

How many of those goal against were actually his fault?

I don’t know how you can watch that series and not think Makar is a two-way force. He outperformed McDavid who was white hot heading into the series.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I did - they're in the same table I linked to in the previous post. At naturalstattrick you can see all the corsi, goals, and xG results in the same table, organized any which way you want.

Thanks for posting. It’s a disaster trying to read on my phone. I’ll check it in my pc tomorrow.

 

[Taluss]

If you're falling back on the statistical argument based on Karlsson's work up till 27 vs a guy who is 23, I don't think you're comparing apples to apples. Like at all. Secondly, the basis of Makar's greatness is completely independent of a stats line because his on ice play is just an exclamation mark.

But if we want to compare Makar vs Karlsson on one interesting point, he's already tied Karlsson in playoff points with 53. And done so in 49 games only vs 67.

Again like I asked someone earlier. Out of curiosity if you really want to take that stance. Do you truly think prime EK wouldn’t put up the same numbers on that stacked team?

 

[Stephen]

I keep hearing this but can he really? How does one have 5 points in a game and end up -1?

Makar is freaking amazing. He’s so good id trade Drai for him 1:1. But let’s not go super overboard and act like he’s a 2-way dominant d man. He’s not. And that’s okay.

Does a defenseman who is generating offense at the rate of a Connor McDavid in a close out game need to play like Ryan McDonagh?

 

[Connor McConnor]

How many of those goal against were actually his fault?

I don’t know how you can watch that series and not think Makar is a two-way force. He outperformed McDavid who was white hot heading into the series.

I watched the series and saw Makar on a line with MacK Landy and Rantanen and they were basically even against a 2 man show. His ability to drive offense when going against our bottom 6 was one of the biggest differences in the series and has nothing to do with his defensive ability.

Like I said, I think Makar is amazing but no I don’t think he’s very good defensively and that is totally okay, he doesn’t need to be.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

If you're falling back on the statistical argument based on Karlsson's work up till 27 vs a guy who is 23, I don't think you're comparing apples to apples. Like at all. Secondly, the basis of Makar's greatness is completely independent of a stats line because his on ice play is just an exclamation mark.

But if we want to compare Makar vs Karlsson on one interesting point, he's already tied Karlsson in playoff points with 53. And done so in 49 games only vs 67.

It’s not apples to apples though. Karlsson played in a lower scoring league on far worse teams. I’d expect Makar to have better raw playoff stats.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

the statistical argument based on Karlsson's work up till 27 vs a guy who is 23,

So you agree that Makar hasn't surpassed Karlsson at this time, but may in the future?

Secondly, the basis of Makar's greatness is completely independent of a stats line because

If you say so.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I watched the series and saw Makar on a line with MacK Landy and Rantanen and they were basically even against a 2 man show. His ability to drive offense when going against our bottom 6 was one of the biggest differences in the series and has nothing to do with his defensive ability.

Like I said, I think Makar is amazing but no I don’t think he’s very good defensively and that is totally okay, he doesn’t need to be.

Well, I guess we watched a different series then.

I think Makar’s defensive game is a huge reason the Avs won. How many times did McDavid even beat him 1v1? Makar was making winning plays on the penalty kill consistently.

Makar’s defence is insanely underrated on this board. He’s excellent defensively. I think he resembles Bourque a lot more than Karlsson.

 

[jj cale]

I'm surprised this belief that Makar is not good defensively is still here, I find him really good there, as I did with Karlsson, their skating alone let's them get the puck out of their zone when it enters and they break up a lot of plays down there with it also. Sure they can at times look bad defensively because they are very active offensively and when things go awry it just really sticks out when a mistake is made , but you take that every day with the offense and good defense they do bring, and if you watch them all game they do.

or maybe I should say "did" in Karlssons case, I';m talking prime Karlsson when I mention him.

 

[Stephen]

So you agree that Makar hasn't surpassed Karlsson at this time, but may in the future?

If you say so.

No, no. Cale Makar is straight up better than Erik Karlsson. Turn on your TV, watch highlights on YouTube and just enjoy the action.

 

[Stephen]

It’s not apples to apples though. Karlsson played in a lower scoring league on far worse teams. I’d expect Makar to have better raw playoff stats.

I don't even necessarily subscribe to the idea that Makar's greatness is because of his production. It's because when you watch Avs games, he jumps out on a team full of superstars.

 

[Taluss]

I think Makar is an absolute stud and will pass EK. But I think as of now if you put prime EK on this Avs team and Makar on the Sens team EK had to deal with this convo would be in favour of EK for sure.

I don't even necessarily subscribe to the idea that Makar's greatness is because of his production. It's because when you watch Avs games, he jumps out on a team full of superstars.

Thats meaningless. Prime Ek would also stand out.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don't even necessarily subscribe to the idea that Makar's greatness is because of his production. It's because when you watch Avs games, he jumps out on a team full of superstars.

With all due respect, your “watch the YouTube highlights” arguments aren’t convincing.

I think Makar is awesome. He’s something special. But it’s going overboard to say he’s already better than prime Karlsson.

I believe he can get there. He’s great. But people are getting ahead of themselves. Let’s give him a couple of years before crowning him.