Has Cale Makar already surpassed a prime Erik Karlsson in just his first 4 years?

[Lays]

I wonder if people consider Fox to be above prime EK65 as well. He has an even better argument than Makar

 

[majormajor]

The "he plays for the Avalanche" critique is certainly something that merits further investigation. Go ahead and find out how much he depends on his teammates. But for whatever reason the folks that say that don't bother to look any further into it, as if his team alone means he can't possibly be better than prime EK. End of story.

As a singular talent with incredible 1 on 1 skill, Cale Makar is actually the furthest from being dependent on his teammates as you can possibly be. You can look at Makar's career scoring rates by Avalanche teammate and he actually has scored at a higher rate with 3rd liners and 2nd liners than with the top guns that are supposedly helping his career. Unless you think J.T. Compher is some hidden elite talent that would have buoyed prime EK too, then it sure appears that Cale Makar is the one doing the carrying. He simply scores more when he has the puck more, and doesn't have to share it. I've never seen a D with that type of profile.

I'm not saying that he'd actually be a better player on a weaker team, but more people would recognize how good he is. Put him on a team with no elite top line and it won't slow him down at all.

 

[TheRarestDangles]

Sorry, I mistook you for someone who might be a serious poster. My mistake.

Have a nice night.

I agree. Cale plays for the Avs so his numbers don't count.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The "he plays for the Avalanche" critique is certainly something that merits further investigation. Go ahead and find out how much he depends on his teammates. But for whatever reason the folks that say that don't bother to look any further into it, as if his team alone means he can't possibly be better than prime EK. End of story.

As a singular talent with incredible 1 on 1 skill, Cale Makar is actually the furthest from being dependent on his teammates as you can possibly be. You can look at Makar's career scoring rates by Avalanche teammate and he actually has scored at a higher rate with 3rd liners and 2nd liners than with the top guns that are supposedly helping his career. Unless you think J.T. Compher is some hidden elite talent that would have buoyed prime EK too, then it sure appears that Cale Makar is the one doing the carrying. He simply scores more when he has the puck more, and doesn't have to share it. I've never seen a D with that type of profile.

I'm not saying that he'd actually be a better player on a weaker team, but more people would recognize how good he is. Put him on a team with no elite top line and it won't slow him down at all.

1. Nobody is saying he can’t be better because of the team he’s on. That’s just as dumb as saying he’s better because he’s in the finals and Karlsson never got there. It’s simply a factor that should be considered.

2. You are dead wrong when you say he scores more. No he doesn’t. Karlsson dominated at a higher level by far. It doesn’t make sense to look at raw numbers, you should look at how they compare RELATIVELY to the league they were in. Karlsson was far more dominant.

So… I don’t see how you can make the case that he’s surpassed Karlsson. Not at this point anyway.

 

[majormajor]

1. Nobody is saying he can’t be better because of the team he’s on. That’s just as dumb as saying he’s better because he’s in the finals and Karlsson never got there. It’s simply a factor that should be considered.

2. You are dead wrong when you say he scores more. No he doesn’t. Karlsson dominated at a higher level by far. It doesn’t make sense to look at raw numbers, you should look at how they compare RELATIVELY to the league they were in. Karlsson was far more dominant.

So… I don’t see how you can make the case that he’s surpassed Karlsson. Not at this point anyway.

Considering that Cale Makar is a much better defensive player, I would think prime EK would have needed to have a much better scoring pace relative to league average in order to compensate for it.

EK's best season was 2015/16 when he was point per game and league scoring dipped to the lowest point in our era. League scoring is 13.4% higher this year (3.14/2.77). Makar's scoring pace was 11.7% higher this year than EK's peak. So that's almost the same peak scoring relative to league average.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

I wonder if people consider Fox to be above prime EK65 as well. He has an even better argument than Makar

No he does not.

Makar > Karlsson > Fox

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Cale Makar has as many playoff points right now as Erik Karlsson has in his entire career. I think when people look back post career of both players it’s going to be Makar.

Even Karlsson’s greatest postseason run is being eclipsed by Makar in his 3rd season.

 

[TheRarestDangles]

Cale Makar has as many playoff points right now as Erik Karlsson has in his entire career. I think when people look back post career of both players it’s going to be Makar.

Even Karlsson’s greatest postseason run is being eclipsed by Makar in his 3rd season.

Yeah bro but he like plays for the AVS. Karlsson played for the Senators, so his points are worth double what Makar's are worth. See how smart I sound @Lafleurs Guy?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Considering that Cale Makar is a much better defensive player, I would think prime EK would have needed to have a much better scoring pace relative to league average in order to compensate for it.

I don’t think you’ve demonstrated that Makar Is better defensively at all. If you have some evidence though, please provide it.

And, yes Karlsson was significantly more dominant offensively.

EK's best season was 2015/16 when he was point per game and league scoring dipped to the lowest point in our era. League scoring is 13.4% higher this year (3.14/2.77). Makar's scoring pace was 11.7% higher this year than EK's peak. So that's almost the same peak scoring relative to league average.

If Karlsson was putting up points in a low scoring era, then it stands to reason that his 82 points are much more impressive than Makar’s 86.

Karlsson was 4th in scoring… overall. Significantly ahead of the next closest blueliner. Was Makar even ahead of Josi this year? He certainly wasn’t the 4th highest scorer let alone top ten.

 

[Lays]

No he does not.

Makar > Karlsson > Fox

Interested to hear how Makar has surpassed EK65 but Fox hasn’t

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

It's close now but there's almost no way makar doesn't surpass him. Makar very well may be the first generational dman we've had in a long time. 22 points in 14 games as a dman is ridiculous. If he wins the conn smythe I'd say he's surpassed him.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Loving the part where the EK fans are using on-ice goals against vs. Makar....

I'm old enough to remember EK leading the league in this stat and being close multiple times. If you want to suggest that makes Makar a bad defender....

 

[Stephen]

The "he plays for the Avalanche" critique is certainly something that merits further investigation. Go ahead and find out how much he depends on his teammates. But for whatever reason the folks that say that don't bother to look any further into it, as if his team alone means he can't possibly be better than prime EK. End of story.

As a singular talent with incredible 1 on 1 skill, Cale Makar is actually the furthest from being dependent on his teammates as you can possibly be. You can look at Makar's career scoring rates by Avalanche teammate and he actually has scored at a higher rate with 3rd liners and 2nd liners than with the top guns that are supposedly helping his career. Unless you think J.T. Compher is some hidden elite talent that would have buoyed prime EK too, then it sure appears that Cale Makar is the one doing the carrying. He simply scores more when he has the puck more, and doesn't have to share it. I've never seen a D with that type of profile.

I'm not saying that he'd actually be a better player on a weaker team, but more people would recognize how good he is. Put him on a team with no elite top line and it won't slow him down at all.

For me, Cale Makar's casual dominance pops out on the ice when he's out there with Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Kadri, Toews, whomever fans want to attribute his success to. When he receives a drop pass and he's bringing up the rear you can feel him tilting the ice. He's a bright star that shines brighter than his superstar teammates. It's really special.

 

[abo9]

I don’t think you’ve demonstrated that Makar Is better defensively at all. If you have some evidence though, please provide it.

And, yes Karlsson was significantly more dominant offensively.

If Karlsson was putting up points in a low scoring era, then it stands to reason that his 82 points are much more impressive than Makar’s 86.

Karlsson was 4th in scoring… overall. Significantly ahead of the next closest blueliner. Was Makar even ahead of Josi this year? He certainly wasn’t the 4th highest scorer let alone top ten.

(Mod)

Arguments in favour of Karlsson being better at his peak are numerous. Makar doesn't have anything on peak Karlsson except the subjective idea that he's better defensively (can someone demonstrate it concretely?).

After all, we're talking peak karlsson, not career wise

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

(Mod)

Arguments in favour of Karlsson being better at his peak are numerous. Makar doesn't have anything on peak Karlsson except the subjective idea that he's better defensively (can someone demonstrate it concretely?).

After all, we're talking peak karlsson, not career wise

Makar is a brilliant defenseman. Won’t surprise me at all if he eventually does pass EK. But not yet.

Terrific playoff run though. He’s probably the leading Conn Snythe contender at this point.

 

[Taluss]

Cale Makar has as many playoff points right now as Erik Karlsson has in his entire career. I think when people look back post career of both players it’s going to be Makar.

Even Karlsson’s greatest postseason run is being eclipsed by Makar in his 3rd season.

So if your going to use this as an argument I’m just curious; If prime EK was in the place of Makar do you really think EK wouldn’t have at least as many points?

 

[majormajor]

If Karlsson was putting up points in a low scoring era, then it stands to reason that his 82 points are much more impressive than Makar’s 86.

I adjusted for era, that's the comment you're replying to.

League scoring is up by 13.4% from peak EK (2015-16) to this year. Makar scored 86 pts in 77 games which is 11.7% higher than peak EK pace. So league adjusted offense is practically the same between peak EK and current Makar.

As for the defense - it is lopsided in Makar's favor. Makar allowed many fewer chances relative to his teammates (xGA/60 Rel) and allowed many fewer goals relative to his teammates (GA/60 Rel) - some of the best relative D stats of any top pair D in the league.

In 2015-16 Karlsson actually gave up .85 goals against more than his teammates per 60 minutes! That's almost an extra goal against every 3 games. You'll see there that he had some years where he was about average defensively, but never better than average defensively.

 

[avsfan9]

Didn't McDavid just score 7 points in 4 games? Makar was on the ice on for 4 goals against last night with a negative xGF%. Is that really shutting down the best player in hockey?

He had 5 points

Karlsson singlehandedly beat the Rangers on 1 leg in 2017. Makar is great and obviously has been dynamite these playoffs, but he's gonna need a bit more of a track record to justify claims like the thread title. Anyone arguing otherwise has a very short memory or didn't actually watch prime Karlsson. I will say that he very much reminds me of Karlsson before his injuries.

Track record? He’s literally being called the best d man since Bobby Orr by a lot of hockey representatives

 

[Megapint]

I see at least 3 Norris trophies in his future min.

2 cups

Future HOFer

 

[Laphroaig]

I think the answer is a resounding yes and I'm a Sens fan who thinks that Karlsson was much better defensively than many fans realize. I just don't think his defense is even close to Makar's. Makar is brilliant on both ends of the ice.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I adjusted for era, that's the comment you're replying to.

League scoring is up by 13.4% from peak EK (2015-16) to this year. Makar scored 86 pts in 77 games which is 11.7% higher than peak EK pace. So league adjusted offense is practically the same between peak EK and current Makar.

As for the defense - it is lopsided in Makar's favor. Makar allowed many fewer chances relative to his teammates (xGA/60 Rel) and allowed many fewer goals relative to his teammates (GA/60 Rel) - some of the best relative D stats of any top pair D in the league.

In 2015-16 Karlsson actually gave up .85 goals against more than his teammates per 60 minutes! That's almost an extra goal against every 3 games. You'll see there that he had some years where he was about average defensively, but never better than average defensively.

I don’t see how you can try to argue that he’s better offensively when he’s not even the highest scoring blueliner this year. And he’s certainly not in the top ten for the league. So no, that doesn’t jive. Karlsson was significantly more dominant offensively. -At this point anyway.

As I said earlier, I’m not really a fan of the GA\60 stat as it doesn’t account for things like goaltending. I’d prefer the possession numbers. That gives you a better picture of things. Karlsson’s defensive numbers weren’t the best but they weren’t the worst either.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Track record? He’s literally being called the best d man since Bobby Orr by a lot of hockey representatives

Which frankly… doesn’t make sense at this point. He hasn’t demonstrated that he’s in EK’s class much less Orr’s. He’s having a great playoff and looks awesome… but they’re getting ahead of themselves.

 

[majormajor]

I don’t see how you can try to argue that he’s better offensively when he’s not even the highest scoring blueliner this year. And he’s certainly not in the top ten for the league. So no, that doesn’t jive. Karlsson was significantly more dominant offensively. -At this point anyway.

You should be using leaguewide scoring to compare eras. If you're thinking that Makar isn't as good because he plays at the same time as Fox and Josi, you have to account for the possibility that this era simply has better elite D than 2015. League scoring would be up by a lot more than 13% if the top D were merely reflecting the ease of scoring in this era.

As I said earlier, I’m not really a fan of the GA\60 stat as it doesn’t account for things like goaltending. I’d prefer the possession numbers. That gives you a better picture of things. Karlsson’s defensive numbers weren’t the best but they weren’t the worst either.

Okay then use xGA/60 Rel. Karlsson never outperformed his teammates defensively. Makar just did, by a lot.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You should be using leaguewide scoring to compare eras. If you're thinking that Makar isn't as good because he plays at the same time as Fox and Josi, you have to account for the possibility that this era simply has better elite D than 2015. League scoring would be up by a lot more than 13% if the top D were merely reflecting the ease of scoring in this era.

Fair enough. But again… he was 4th in scoring overall. There’s just no way to square that Makar is that dominant offensively- yet.

Okay then use xGA/60 Rel. Karlsson never outperformed his teammates defensively. Makar just did, by a lot.

I don’t like to use GA stats. And I said so when someone was using it to defend Karlsson. I’d much rather relative shot metrics. As I said, - going off memory- Karlsson’s weren’t great but not terrible either. I haven’t looked at Makar’s.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Year/ pts/ games/ league rank /defenseman rank/ team rank
Karlsson
11-12 78/81/11/1/2
13-14 74 /82 /14/1/1
14-15 66/82/23/1/1
15-16 82/82/4/1/1
16-17 71/77/17/2/1
Makar
20-21 44/44/52/6/4
21-22 86/77/21/2/4

Just off boxscore, Makar got to Karlsson's worst prime season this year, and doesn't match yet 15/16 Karlsson..