Has Cale Makar already surpassed a prime Erik Karlsson in just his first 4 years?

[Freudian]

This (bolded) is false. I don't have access to hockey-reference's stathead tool anymore but if we adjust for league scoring Makar's this season point total stays more or less the same while Karlsson's 15-16 season point total jumps to around 100.

Taking league scoring into account Makar does not have any argument over Karlsson. Yet.

So now we are down to comparing a single season for Karlsson with Makar to determine who is the best player? I guess we should be thankful we are not down to 10 game stretches to describe the dominance of EK65.

 

[flyfysher]

If Makar wins a SC then yes, he will do so in a very tangible manner.

 

[apparentlyclueless]

So now we are down to comparing a single season for Karlsson with Makar to determine who is the best player? I guess we should be thankful we are not down to 10 game stretches to describe the dominance of EK65.

This discussion is about whether Makar has passed peak Karlsson or not. Karlsson's ultimate peak was short, I would say 2015-2017 (his prime was longer and I guess you could also argue he peaked twice, 2011-2013 and 2015-2017 or something like that) so yeah, it makes sense to compare single seasons as well. That season is the benchmark of Karlsson's abilities and Makar has not done anything as impressive yet.

 

[hockeydog23]

Karlsson when he finished 4th in scoring was not competing against the level of scoring talent in the nhl today. Sorry, but peak Jamie Ben and a 36 year old joe Thornton really don’t stack up to todays top scoring forwards. So karlssons top 4 finish is being overhyped. Brent burns was top ten too that year.

Josi this year finished almost top ten in scoring and had most dman points since early 90s. Probably going to get his second Norris this month. Carried a weak team to the playoffs this year, was most important player on nashvilles SCF team. Pretty comparable to these Karlsson achievements being touted in this thread. For those who watched first round, you taking Josi 96 pt likely 2-time Norris winner Josi over Makar?

 

[hockeydog23]

We’ve heard this before… it doesn’t change anything. Stop repeating this like it’s some kind of great point… it’s not.

One guy played for crap teams the other played on stacked ones. Two completely different situations in the playoffs. There’s no way in God’s green earth that Karlsson ( or Makar for that matter) was going to be able to do anything in the playoffs with those scrubs. No chance.

Dude, we’ve heard this before. We get it, the sens weren’t that good in 2017. We know because they had to protect their fourth overall pick the following year. You don’t need to keep reminding us. Stop repeating it like it’s some great point… it’s not.

Sometimes mediocre teams have one or two good players. And sometimes those teams catch lightening in a bottle and make it deep into the playoffs. It happens. It happened last year with Montreal, it happened with Ottawa, it happened in 2012 with Arizona. Should we now be comparing peak Mike Smith to Roy and Brodeur for dragging that team to the WCF?

 

[Alwalys]

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[Alwalys]

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[majormajor]

That's because when he goes out with lower lines, he faces lower defensive lines. Karlsson always faced the top pairings.

That's not true. One of the biggest myths out there. Line matching in the regular season is always a mess and everyone plays against everyone else most of the time. That's the reason analysts have largely dropped qual comp as a variable, it just introduces noise to the models.

I've gone through the scoring rates by teammate before for many defenseman and Cale Makar's career profile isn't like any I've ever seen. It is not normal at all to score that much more with middle sixers.

 

[Alwalys]

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[hockeydog23]

I didn’t miss anything, including the attempt to muddy the waters. I’m not going to spend efforts on that… but feel free to make a separate thread on it. I won’t be joining in.

Feel free to tell me how Makar is already better than prime Karlsson though…

Makar, like Karlsson was, is the best player on his own team. The difference is, the Avs next best player, squarely in his prime, has for years been considered a top 2-3 player in the league.

 

[tacogeoff]

So now we are down to comparing a single season for Karlsson with Makar to determine who is the best player? I guess we should be thankful we are not down to 10 game stretches to describe the dominance of EK65.

well yes because that is what the OP is asking. "

Has Cale Makar already surpassed a prime Erik Karlsson in just his first 4 years?​

we are talking about his prime. that was pretty much his prime.

 

[hockeydog23]

I don't think Karlsson has ever stepped on the ice and not been the best offensive player for his team, which commands the top defensive attention and gameplanning. Not so much for Makar. Makar is a great player but anyone that doesn't think the forward corps helps a lot is just wrong.

And anyone who thinks makar wouldn’t have been the best offensive player for the sens is just wrong.

 

[Alwalys]

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[abo9]

Karlsson when he finished 4th in scoring was not competing against the level of scoring talent in the nhl today. Sorry, but peak Jamie Ben and a 36 year old joe Thornton really don’t stack up to todays top scoring forwards. So karlssons top 4 finish is being overhyped. Brent burns was top ten too that year.

this argument makes no sense because scoring is so clearly up because of other factors than "more talented players".

Multiple players from back then have had better scoring totals. Crosby, Ovechkin, Pavelski are all now in their mid to late 30's and beating their total from 2015-16. Tarasenko too, coming off a huge injury is now beating his career best in point. Are all those guys playing better hockey today than 6-7 years ago?

I mean, Karlsson in 2015-16 was 3 pts away from Crosby who won the Conn Smythe that year. Makar paced for less points than 34 years old Crosby.

And ok, "finished rank" might be flawed. Points adjusted to the same scoring level over 82 games still has EK 2015-16 producing more than Makar this year.

Josi this year finished almost top ten in scoring and had most dman points since early 90s. Probably going to get his second Norris this month. Carried a weak team to the playoffs this year, was most important player on nashvilles SCF team. Pretty comparable to these Karlsson achievements being touted in this thread. For those who watched first round, you taking Josi 96 pt likely 2-time Norris winner Josi over Makar?

He was (marginally) better offensively than Makar this year. Makar's defensive play probab'y makes up for the difference though I agree.

But if Josi wins the Norris, has he not been the best D in the NHL?

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Took a quick look at my team's games vs Colorado to see what the line matching looks like. Mackinnon absolutely draws the hardest matching, and in one game he drew a 84% top pairing matchup while Makar faced almost even matching with all 3 D-pairings. Just in case anyone wanted to try to explore the ridiculous claim that line matching somehow isn't a thing. EDIT: Checked the Edmonton series and again Mackinnon was drawing the top D matchup, not Makar.

Leftwinglock's tool is pretty fantastic. Line Matching | Which Players Are Being Used Against Your Fantasy Hockey Stars? | leftwinglock.com

Makar drew a hefty amount of Connor McDavid in that series, because you know, he’s a defenceman.

 

[Foppberg]

As great of a year that Josi had, there's no way he had a better year than Cale. He had way less to work with in Nashville but he also sucks defensively. Cale is our best offensive & defensive defenseman.

 

[abo9]

As great of a year that Josi had, there's no way he had a better year than Cale. He had way less to work with in Nashville but he also sucks defensively. Cale is our best offensive & defensive defenseman.

should be a no brainer that Makar wins the Norris then

 

[Alwalys]

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[Northern Avs Fan]

That's the point, a defenseman is usually not by far the best offensive player on the team the way Karlsson was, so they don't get gameplanned against the way Karlsson was. Makar is no exception.

As someone who watches plenty of Avalanche hockey, I can tell you with certainty that the coverage always shades to Makar’s side in the offensive zone.

 

[Freudian]

This discussion is about whether Makar has passed peak Karlsson or not. Karlsson's ultimate peak was short, I would say 2015-2017 (his prime was longer and I guess you could also argue he peaked twice, 2011-2013 and 2015-2017 or something like that) so yeah, it makes sense to compare single seasons as well. That season is the benchmark of Karlsson's abilities and Makar has not done anything as impressive yet.

Except completely annihilate Karlssons first three seasons in the league in his first three season in addition to outscore Karlsson both in real and score adjusted numbers. This is with the exception of a single season where Karlsson has 95 points league scoring adjusted compared to Makars current season where he had 92 points league scoring adjusted.

If you compare their post-season numbers Makar dominates no matter how you want to compare. If you want to go by score adjusted numbers Makar is at 1.11 P/GP and 0.88 P/GP. All this is before Makar even has reached his prime.

As for a single season being the benchmark of his abilities, there is a reason we are talking about career years. Is 56 goals the benchmark for Cheechoo? Is Kadri having 87 points in 71 games the benchmark for his abilities or is it just a fluke season where he got really lucky? Perhaps teams should like up to trade for 99 point player J.T Miller. That's who is he, right?

I'd argue that bigger samples are more relevant and interesting than smaller ones but when it comes to EK it's all about one single season or a single playoff and silence about the rest. It's possible Makar also had his career year this year. Who knows. I certainly won't expect him to put up 1.57 P/GP in the playoffs over his career.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

Took a quick look at my team's games vs Colorado to see what the line matching looks like. Mackinnon absolutely draws the hardest matching, and in one game he drew a 84% top pairing matchup while Makar faced almost even matching with all 3 D-pairings. Just in case anyone wanted to try to explore the ridiculous claim that line matching somehow isn't a thing. EDIT: Checked the Edmonton series and again Mackinnon was drawing the top D matchup, not Makar.

Leftwinglock's tool is pretty fantastic. Line Matching | Which Players Are Being Used Against Your Fantasy Hockey Stars? | leftwinglock.com

You've got all the tools and you've almost made it to the finish line. Let's try to put that last few puzzle pieces together my friend.

You've decided to compare MacK to the opposing D. Because star forwards draw the best D matchups. Ok we're good so far.

But when analyzing Makar you inexplicably also compare him to the opposing D, instead of comparing him to the opposing F he should be matching against. Why? Makar is a D and he's being sent out there to match up against the best players in the world.

Game 1 vs Edmonton - Makar plays 78% against McDavid+Draisaitl, 13% against McDavid. That's 91% of the game.

Game 2 vs Edmonton - Makar plays 11% against McDavid+Draisaitl, 54% against McDavid, and 25% against Draisaitl. That's 90% of the game.

Game 3 vs Edmonton - Makar plays 43% against McDavid+Draisaitl, 37% against McDavid, and 20% against Draisaitl. That's 100% of the game.

Game 4 vs Edmonton - Makar plays 68% of the game against McDavid+Draisaitl.

You're facing a really uphill battle if you're going to try to suggest that Makar is getting easy minutes by playing 90% of the game against McDavid and Draisaitl just because the D behind them is fluctuating.

 

[Alwalys]

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[CloutierForVezina]

Follow along the discussion. The claim being addressed is that Makar's scoring rate is higher with weaker players, showing some kind of superiority. It does not. It is just a natural consequence of lower forward lines drawing less defensive attention. This as compared with a team where the D in question is the top offensive player and draws top defensive attention as the focus of the offense.

Follow along the logic.

Being hard matched against the other team's top players is being employed in a shutdown role. Producing at a crazy high rate in a shutdown role is incredibly impressive and DOES show "some kind of superiority".

The point of hockey is to outscore the opponent. Matching up against the other team's best players and outscoring them is literally the most valuable thing you can do in hockey. Makar does that.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Why in the world you would think this makes sense is beyond me. Prime Karlsson’s not in the league right now. His scoring would be higher.

Freaking Josi scored 96 points this year.

"Freaking Josi"...as if he isn't very likely to win a 2nd Norris and join the contemporary ranks of Duncan Kieth and Erik Karlsson himself. You say that like he fluked his way into nearly 100 points. I'm assuming you have watched maybe a game or two of the Preds this year at best. Josi had an excellent year offensively and your slight against him is disingenuous.

Karlsson's infamous top 5 finish in 2015-16 was really impressive but lets not pretend that the level of forward talent i.e. competition for scoring finishes was the same then as it is now. Kane had the best year of his career but even then there was no McDavid, Draisaitl, or Matthews to bump a guy like Karlsson further down the list.

Took a quick look at my team's games vs Colorado to see what the line matching looks like. Mackinnon absolutely draws the hardest matching, and in one game he drew a 84% top pairing matchup while Makar faced almost even matching with all 3 D-pairings. Just in case anyone wanted to try to explore the ridiculous claim that line matching somehow isn't a thing. EDIT: Checked the Edmonton series and again Mackinnon was drawing the top D matchup, not Makar.

Leftwinglock's tool is pretty fantastic. Line Matching | Which Players Are Being Used Against Your Fantasy Hockey Stars? | leftwinglock.com

Coaches chase matchups against forward lines, not D pairs. MacKinnon gets the top D opps because he's on Colorado's top scoring line.

That's the point, a defenseman is usually not by far the best offensive player on the team the way Karlsson was, so they don't get gameplanned against the way Karlsson was. Makar is no exception.

And for your already typed out follow up to the above...the same reason Karlsson was gameplanned against against like that is the same reason he had the inflated production he did. He played on a bad team that leaned on him for everything. Which, yes he did an excellent job of it and it's why he has 2 Norris trophies and will be a HoFer.

HOWEVER, I've been saying this for 10 years now, when you play on a great team you don't get the advantage of being leaned on and therefore jacking up your goal/assists output. O-zone starts, PP minutes, PK minutes, etc...get spread out to the rest of your team. Makar's 25 minutes a night are different than Karlsson's on Ottawa were. Makar isn't out there just playing offense all game like Karlsson was. Karlsson being asked to do it all shows 1) How incredibly talented he was 2) How he could carry a franchise and 3) How bad the Sens were.

All of this is moot anyway. This thread is 23 pages of Sens/Habs fans bickering about Karlsson's woeful circumstances while all you really need to do to have an opinion on the matter is to watch Cale Makar play and it's clear as day he is the 2nd most dynamic player in the league behind Connor McDavid. Watch what Makar is capable of doing out there and I don't know how anyone can say anything other than he's the best defenseman we've seen in an extremely long time. There are too many variables and things that are not 1:1 comparisons if you try and look at this statistically. Scoring and competition is different in 2021-22 than it was in 2015-16 and you're never going to find a clear cut way to compare these two players statistically.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

"Freaking Josi"...as if he isn't very likely to win a 2nd Norris and join the contemporary ranks of Duncan Kieth and Erik Karlsson himself. You say that like he fluked his way into nearly 100 points. I'm assuming you have watched maybe a game or two of the Preds this year at best. Josi had an excellent year offensively and your slight against him is disingenuous.

Karlsson's infamous top 5 finish in 2015-16 was really impressive but lets not pretend that the level of forward talent i.e. competition for scoring finishes was the same then as it is now. Kane had the best year of his career but even then there was no McDavid, Draisaitl, or Matthews to bump a guy like Karlsson further down the list.

Coaches chase matchups against forward lines, not D pairs. MacKinnon gets the top D opps because he's on Colorado's top scoring line.

And for your already typed out follow up to the above...the same reason Karlsson was gameplanned against against like that is the same reason he had the inflated production he did. He played on a bad team that leaned on him for everything. Which, yes he did an excellent job of it and it's why he has 2 Norris trophies and will be a HoFer.

HOWEVER, I've been saying this for 10 years now, when you play on a great team you don't get the advantage of being leaned on and therefore jacking up your goal/assists output. O-zone starts, PP minutes, PK minutes, etc...get spread out to the rest of your team. Makar's 25 minutes a night are different than Karlsson's on Ottawa were. Makar isn't out there just playing offense all game like Karlsson was. Karlsson being asked to do it all shows 1) How incredibly talented he was 2) How he could carry a franchise and 3) How bad the Sens were.

All of this is moot anyway. This thread is 23 pages of Sens/Habs fans bickering about Karlsson's woeful circumstances while all you really need to do to have an opinion on the matter is to watch Cale Makar play and it's clear as day he is the 2nd most dynamic player in the league behind Connor McDavid. Watch what Makar is capable of doing out there and I don't know how anyone can say anything other than he's the best defenseman we've seen in an extremely long time. There are too many variables and things that are not 1:1 comparisons if you try and look at this statistically. Scoring and competition is different in 2021-22 than it was in 2015-16 and you're never going to find a clear cut way to compare these two players statistically.

Gee I wonder why it's a lot of Sens and Habs fans commenting. Maybe it's because they're the ones that watched Karlsson the most? Why would Habs fans be biased towards Karlsson anyway? He played for one of their biggest rivals, if anything they'd be biased against him. The fact that there are so many Habs fans are singing Karlsson's praises actually says quite a bit about how good of a player he was in his prime.