Value of: Habs First Pick

[Frank Drebin]

Spend it however you’d like. If Dubois is only going to consider the Habs in UFA, then I’d just wait it out too.

That’s clearly your assumption. That Dubois is in the bag. In that scenario, don’t do anything but wait until July 2024.

It's foolish to bid against contending teams for a player that would help, but not change the fate of the franchise. We're not buyers right now.

And if we miss on Dubois, you pay market value later on another player. Not today. We can afford to take the risk of missing out on him to get him for free.

 

[McJedi]

It's foolish to bid against contending teams for a player that would help, but not change the fate of the franchise. We're not buyers right now.

And if we miss on Dubois, you pay market value later on another player. Not today. We can afford to take the risk of missing out on him to get him for free.

You won’t be able to make your entire core around guys 19-22 years old today. You’ll have too many guys seeking new deals with 7-8 year term at the same time.

 

[Number 57]

Dvorak won’t have any value to Peg. He’s still an expensive 3C there. His contract is unfortunate on any team that wants efficient allocation of AAV.

Anderson isn’t a great fit either because he’s not a C and Dubois is. I’d save him for the Habs roster or for a trade to a team that has greater need for a physical winger. This isn’t a huge need for Peg.

So adding either to such a trade doesn’t or shouldn’t move the needle for Peg. They’d just be there for AAV matching.

But if Dvorak had to come over, I’d demand the Habs attach a sweetener for dumping that bad contract. So something like Dubois for 15th OA + Dvorak + Barron or Mesar.

15th overall isn’t enough for Dubois straight up. Dvorak has no value at his AAV. So Habs would need to add something to dump that 3C contract.

Actually I'd say 15th overall straight up for Dubois is really fair. He is one year away from free agency, you're not getting more

I was just saying if Winnipeg wants to compete they could have Dvorak as a 2C or 3C (to replace Dubois) and add Anderson too since the Habs are rebuilding. So at least it doesn't make Winnipeg worse by losing Dubois and not replacing him. And we wouldn't ask for the moon

 

[Frank Drebin]

You won’t be able to make your entire core around guys 19-22 years old today. You’ll have too many guys seeking new deals with 7-8 year term at the same time.

I don't care about your opinion on our team. Move along

 

[FerrisRox]

Most are spending less than $4.5mm on their 3C. And he’s not an elite 3C either. Just a run off the mill middle six C in his prime. With NTC kicking in July 1st.

It’s not an intriguing contract. It’s a problematic one.

If it had value, a contender would have traded for him. Especially with Monahan and Toews not getting traded at the deadline. There were not many Cs available this year. And Dvorak didn’t find a new home? Why? Because the market for him is tiny and he’s more valuable to the Habs than anyone else.

Or.... because the Canadiens had no interest in trading him away? I certainly didn't want them to move Dvorak, they had no reason to let him go.

 

[McJedi]

Or.... because the Canadiens had no interest in trading him away? I certainly didn't want them to move Dvorak, they had no reason to let him go.

That makes sense to me. Dvorak as I’ve said often has more value to Montreal than anyone else. I’ve never considered him a realistic trade candidate. Unless the Habs want to dump him. He has a very small market of teams he’s hold appeal with at his AAV. I can’t think of any teams that would trade assets for his full cap hit.

His living his best NHL life in Montreal.

 

[McJedi]

I don't care about your opinion on our team. Move along

Then why are you on the main board. You should move over to the Habs board if you want a bunch of homers telling you want you want to hear. Start a few more Drouin trade threads over there.

 

[McJedi]

Actually I'd say 15th overall straight up for Dubois is really fair. He is one year away from free agency, you're not getting more

I was just saying if Winnipeg wants to compete they could have Dvorak as a 2C or 3C (to replace Dubois) and add Anderson too since the Habs are rebuilding. So at least it doesn't make Winnipeg worse by losing Dubois and not replacing him. And we wouldn't ask for the moon

Ask Winnipeg fans if they’d do Dubois for Dvorak + Anderson.

Sounds awful to me if I’m Winnipeg.

But so does losing Dubois for nothing next summer. I do think he’d have huge value of traded as a rental. He’d fetch at least a 1st + prospect. But Montreal pick 15th overall is good asset. I don’t deny it. Maybe that’s enough. I’ve said many times I’d rather have the Habs leverage here than Pegs. But I think that leverage has limits.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Then why are you on the main board. You should move over to the Habs board if you want a bunch of homers telling you want you want to hear. Start a few more Drouin trade threads over there.

You misunderstood.

It's just your opinion I don't care about. When you start off offering dach + for a year of pld it's pretty clear you don't really have a vested interest in the future of the Montreal canadiens.

So move along, find someone else to bait.

 

[McJedi]

You misunderstood.

It's just your opinion I don't care about. When you start off offering dach + for a year of pld it's pretty clear you don't really have a vested interest in the future of the Montreal canadiens.

So move along, find someone else to bait.

If Dubois is your future, that will require subtraction somewhere else from the roster. The where is the question here.

As well as compensation to Winnipeg.

Sounds mostly like you want your cake and to eat it too.

If you want imaginationland, the Habs specific board is where you can exchange unrealistic expectations.

 

[Frank Drebin]

If Dubois is your future, that will require subtraction somewhere else from the roster.

As well as compensation to Winnipeg.

Sounds mostly like you want your cake and to eat it too.

If you want fantasy land, Habs specific board is where you can exchange unrealistic expectations.

There are better trading partners for Winnipeg than Montreal. I am fine waiting to see if we can add him for free via ufa. If not, we put together a fair offer for a similar player in two or three years time via trade. It makes no sense to pay to add him now when we're clearly not trying to make the playoffs for at least one more year.

Again, go try changing someone else's mind, you're not convincing me that you have the Habs best interests at heart here.

 

[Canadienna]

If Dubois is your future, that will require subtraction somewhere else from the roster. The where is the question here.

As well as compensation to Winnipeg.

Well part of what makes Habs fans hesitant to offer a big package is the possibility of getting him in FA.

Of course that's not a guarantee, so it's a risk reward debate.

I guess the question is how much other teams would offer at the deadline next year, and whether that would be affected by the Montreal rumours.

 

[McJedi]

There are better trading partners for Winnipeg than Montreal. I am fine waiting to see if we can add him for free via ufa. If not, we put together a fair offer for a similar player in two or three years time via trade. It makes no sense to pay to add him now when we're clearly not trying to make the playoffs for at least one more year.

Again, go try changing someone else's mind, you're not convincing me that you have the Habs best interests at heart here.

Why would I. You’d need to have Winnipeg’s interests as well. There is no trade scenario if the deal only works with the Habs in mind. And this is literally about PLDs value.

Well part of what makes Habs fans hesitant to offer a big package is the possibility of getting him in FA.

Of course that's not a guarantee, so it's a risk reward debate.

I guess the question is how much other teams would offer at the deadline next year, and whether that would be affected by the Montreal rumours.

Assume he’s a top rental. So 1st in 2024 + someone like an Owen Tippett level prospect.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Well part of what makes Habs fans hesitant to offer a big package is the possibility of getting him in FA.

Of course that's not a guarantee, so it's a risk reward debate.

I guess the question is how much other teams would offer at the deadline next year, and whether that would be affected by the Montreal rumours.

Winnipeg would be much better off waiting for a tdl deal than whatever the Habs would offer. And the contender that makes a move for him likely won't have room for him long term so he will probably hit ufa

It's a chance I'm more than willing to take. Pld is great but not worth a desperation move like @McJedi is suggesting

And this is literally about PLDs value

Read the thread title bud.

 

[McJedi]

Winnipeg would be much better off waiting for a tdl deal than whatever the Habs would offer. And the contender that makes a move for him likely won't have room for him long term so he will probably hit ufa

It's a chance I'm more than willing to take. Pld is great but not worth a desperation move like @McJedi is suggesting


Read the thread title bud.

You’re right. Someone suggested PLD for 15th pick and that’s where this started.

15th pick for PLD is a good base for a trade IMO.

 

[Frank Drebin]

15th pick for PLD is a good base for a trade IMO

This exact idea was brought up on the homerific Habs board and most of us would do it on the assumption that a long term deal is in the works. I don't know about salary and cap constraints, if we have to dump our not.

Winnipeg could likely do better though.

 

[Buffdog]

You’re right. Someone suggested PLD for 15th pick and that’s where this started.

15th pick for PLD is a good base for a trade IMO.

I'm glad to hear the 15th is a good deal for PLD. That way the Jets can turn around and flip it for another 6'4 220lb 25 year old power centre who can score and plays with grit. After all, they grow on trees apparently.

 

[FerrisRox]

If Dubois is your future, that will require subtraction somewhere else from the roster. The where is the question here.

As well as compensation to Winnipeg.

Sounds mostly like you want your cake and to eat it too.

If you want imaginationland, the Habs specific board is where you can exchange unrealistic expectations.

He's a year away from Unrestricted Free Agency. Why would adding him require a subtraction somewhere else?

They have a bunch of money opening up off their cap and Dubois would be a UFA? Why are they having to subtract?

 

[Frank Drebin]

He's a year away from Unrestricted Free Agency. Why would adding him require a subtraction somewhere else?

They have a bunch of money opening up off their cap and Dubois would be a UFA? Why are they having to subtract?

I would be ok with offering a minor (relatively speaking) asset like mesar or Florida's pick to secure pld, but I don't see why Winnipeg would accept.

I don't have my ear to the ground to know if pld in Montreal as a ufa is a certainty or near to it, but if it was then obviously we just wait

 

[ole ole]

I'm glad to hear the 15th is a good deal for PLD. That way the Jets can turn around and flip it for another 6'4 220lb 25 year old power centre who can score and plays with grit. After all, they grow on trees apparently.

And maybe just maybe the Jets can get that player to sign long term with them and hopefully he doesn't refuse to resign with the Jets and wants to test the FA market at all cost while pining to play for a certain team.

 

[Boondock]

Been some rumours Habs may go off the board with their pick. Guy they like slated to go later in draft. Our pick currently sits at 6th. Wondering what it's value would be to trade down? Ideally something between 8-25th. If a Team close to cap wants to move big contract. We have 20 million in caproom this summer. Could be a match?

Sens got Debrinkat for 7th last year, but this is better draft. Kings got Fiala for 19th. We could look this years version of similar trade. A first line forward plus 19th pick for the 6th? Or something basic like give us a 2nd for you to move up couple slots in draft?

There’s a bit of error to your request. Debrincat was traded for the 7th overall, the 39th overall, and a 2024 3rd round pick. Fiala was traded for the 19th and a prospect with 1st round value (Fabre) so In both these cases the team receiving the player had to include a 1st plus a significant add. Your asking for a first line forward AND a first round pick for just the 6th overall. I know this is considered a better draft, but the difference is maybe just the 6th and no adders for a 1st line player. There is no way you get a Fiala/Debrincat type player and a 1st.

Fiala/Debrincat both had contract uncertainty when they were traded. So I’m sure there’s a player out there with contract uncertainty that could be available but this is part of why they were available in the first place.

 

[Buffdog]

And maybe just maybe the Jets can get that player to sign long term with them and hopefully he doesn't refuse to resign with the Jets and wants to test the FA market at all cost while pining to play for a certain team.

Whole lot of assumptions here

My bet is that PLD isn't as fixated on MTL as Habs fans think. He has a list of places he wants to be and has informed chevy. He'll deal him to one of those teams and he'll extend.

I think MTL is on that list but they're not the only team. You guys will be saying "we could have had our long coveted francophone star for X but assumed we'd get him for nothing and here we are sucking still"

 

[FerrisRox]

I would be ok with offering a minor (relatively speaking) asset like mesar or Florida's pick to secure pld, but I don't see why Winnipeg would accept.

I don't have my ear to the ground to know if pld in Montreal as a ufa is a certainty or near to it, but if it was then obviously we just wait

I don't see why Montreal would offer it. I would much prefer to have Mesar or the first round pick. Makes more sense for Dubois to wait if he wants to join the Canadiens. The team is much better with those assets. I don't see how it's desirable for Dubois to join the Canadiens one year earlier than he could as a free agent when the team will still not be competitive and the price of adding him is nice pieces for the future.

 

[Michoulicious]

Winnipeg should just trade him as a rental to another team. Everybody knows he'll sign in Montreal in a year as a UFA.

No reason for Montreal to spend assets for him, Winnipeg will certainly get a late 1st + prospect at the next year trade deadline for him as a rental, he's an excellent player. Montreal won't be in a position to be a buyer anyways.

 

[SwedishFire]

Been some rumours Habs may go off the board with their pick. Guy they like slated to go later in draft. Our pick currently sits at 6th. Wondering what it's value would be to trade down? Ideally something between 8-25th. If a Team close to cap wants to move big contract. We have 20 million in caproom this summer. Could be a match?

Sens got Debrinkat for 7th last year, but this is better draft. Kings got Fiala for 19th. We could look this years version of similar trade. A first line forward plus 19th pick for the 6th? Or something basic like give us a 2nd for you to move up couple slots in draft?

Ceci or Yamamoto, equppied with a 3rd and a 4th. We are very low on high picks...