Value of: Getting Matt Murray out of Toronto

[Nylanderthal]

They have 21 players and are 2.4 million over the cap, without Samsonov, but with Muzzin on the LTIR.

They have a 1st this year, and in two years. No second round picks for the next three years. My guess is prospects being the main sweeteners.

Apparently Nylander, Matthews, Tavares and Marner are all off limits. Rielly only recently signed his career contract. Bertuzzi, Domi, Reaves, Klingberg and Kampf all just signed contracts too. This leaves Jarnkrok, McCabe, Liljegren or Brodie as the second source cap savings.

To sign/call up two more spare skaters, if they move Murray they're dead against the cap, including Muzzin being on the LTIR. That is without Samsonov signed, too.

My guess is they're screwed.

Brodie+Murray+1st+Minten+Niemela to get cap compliant, to Chicago, probably with more going to the Blackhawks. Chicago is short on NHL D, have added some veteran presence for Bedard, and also only have one NHL goalie.

Or they push for Samsonov to elect for arbitration, to open a second buy out window. Buying out Murray and Brodie gets them 4.9 in cap space for Samsonov though, with a cap hit almost as high next year.

Swing and a miss. All they need to do to is make Murray’s cap hit go away and they have 3.05m for Sammy

 

[wankstifier]

Isn't Anaheim the only team not at the floor yet?

 

[Sun God Nika]

Bailey had one year left at 5 mil and was dumped for a future 2nd. Murray has a one year left at 4.6 after the Sens retention. So yeah either a 2nd, or a 3rd + prospect sounds about right.

Bailey was owed 3.5$ in real dollars with a buyout he is owed 2.31 in real dollars over 2 years.

Murray can not be bought out if traded so the team is on the hook to pay 6 in the course of 1 year.

 

[Michoulicious]

Because some just need to get to the cap floor and or need goalies ? Additionally it would come with an asset , just not a first ;..Why would he cost more to trade with one less year of contract to eat and similar on ice results?

It's 6 millions USD in real money, not just cap hit. Real salary is quite higher than the cap hit actually. A cheap team (ex: Arizona) looking to get to the floor won't like the idea of spending even more real money than cap...

 

[pth2]

I suspect Treliving already has a deal lined up, otherwise he'd have painted himself into a corner. He and Hughes have a good working relationship so MTL and TOR might be making more deals now.

Murray + '24 first (top 5 or 10 protected) for Avs '24 second ?

 

[Nylanderthal]

Was he a cap dump last year or the best option for goalie per Dubas?

Both

 

[KevinRedkey]

Because some just need to get to the cap floor and or need goalies ? Additionally it would come with an asset , just not a first ;..Why would he cost more to trade with one less year of contract to eat and similar on ice results?

I agree a 1st is too much but a '3rd and mediocre prospect' is not enough.

Zaitsev was owed ~5.000 in actual dollars and cost Ottawa a 2nd and a 4th to unload. His cap hit was 4.500 for this year + a small ammount of last year.

Murray at 6.000 salary and a 4.688 cap hit should cost somewhere in that range but Toronto doesn't have a 2nd.

For that reason, my guess is Toronto's 2022 2nd rounder (Fraser Minten) might be the best alternative. Him and a 4th rounder would be pretty much equal in terms of "value" to Zaitsev's cost.

 

[Nylanderthal]

I suspect Treliving already has a deal lined up, otherwise he'd have painted himself into a corner. He and Hughes have a good working relationship so MTL and TOR might be making more deals now.

Murray + '24 first (top 5 or 10 protected) for Avs '24 second ?

Habs second would be more in line considering mrazek is worse & had more term and money owed when they moved 25
and him for 38 last year.
Murray + 24 1st for habs 2nd and maybe a 5-7th considering there’s a chance the habs could win big here if the leafs bomb

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Who still needs to get to the floor and could possibly see Murray as a serviceable goalie?

It’s day 2 of free agency . Ridiculous amount of of time to get a taker . I promise they go buy out route if it looks remotely like the going price is a 1 st . Anaheim if they move Gibson , Chicago or Zona seem like possible landing spots ( for varying reasons ) but again market has yet to take full shape this early .

 

[pth2]

Habs second would be more in line considering mrazek is worse & had more term and money owed when they moved 25 and him for 38 last year.

Habs don't own any other 2nd rounders, so this is it.

 

[Michoulicious]

Habs second would be more in line considering mrazek is worse & had more term and money owed when they moved 25 and him for 38 last year.

Difference between Habs (early) 2nd (which they don't possess in 2024 anyways) and Leafs 1st (late 1st) is about the value of a 3rd rounder IMO. Not enough...

Mrazek trade by Dubas was just sorcery. Molson will not pony up 6 millions just for a few spots difference in a draft.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Who still needs to get to the floor and could possibly see Murray as a serviceable goalie?

Chicago seems like the obvious option. They only have Mrazek under contract.

Murray is super overpaid and super injury prone, but I don't think he's a bad goalie. He's just nothing more than an injury prone 1B, which isn't worth even close to what he's making.

I actually think that Murray and a 2024 1st for a 2024 2nd is a totally reasonable deal. The Leafs likely drop from 25 to 40, which is about the value of a mid 2nd rounder. But they're not losing any picks by doing that.

 

[Michoulicious]

It’s day 2 of free agency . Ridiculous amount of of time to get a taker . I promise they go buy out route if it looks remotely like the going price is a 1 st . Anaheim if they move Gibson , Chicago or Zona seem like possible landing spots ( for varying reasons ) but again market has yet to take full shape this early .

I agree Anaheim is a great spot IF they move Gibson. They have to move him though.

 

[pth2]

Chicago seems like the obvious option. They only have Mrazek under contract.

Murray is super overpaid and super injury prone, but I don't think he's a bad goalie. He's just nothing more than an injury prone 1B, which isn't worth even close to what he's making.

I actually think that Murray and a 2024 1st for a 2024 2nd is a totally reasonable deal. The Leafs likely drop from 25 to 40, which is about the value of a mid 2nd rounder. But they're not losing any picks by doing that.

Biggest issue with Montreal is that they'd take Murray to bury him, not to actually play him.
OTOH, if he's good in the AHL maybe he gets a middling pick as a rental at the deadline...

 

[razor ray]

Chicago seems like the obvious option. They only have Mrazek under contract.

Murray is super overpaid and super injury prone, but I don't think he's a bad goalie. He's just nothing more than an injury prone 1B, which isn't worth even close to what he's making.

I actually think that Murray and a 2024 1st for a 2024 2nd is a totally reasonable deal. The Leafs likely drop from 25 to 40, which is about the value of a mid 2nd rounder. But they're not losing any picks by doing that.

I wonder if Chicago could take Muzzin and Murray for a 2024 1st and return a future consideration or a 7th. Not sure how the NTC clause works for this type of trade. If I’m the Leafs I easily do that as that pick will be in the high 20s.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Isn't Anaheim the only team not at the floor yet?

As per CapFriendly yes - and I'm sure they don't seed Murray to get there either. The whole "getting to the floor" thing is overblown.

ANA does make sense if the compensation is interesting enough though.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Isn't Anaheim the only team not at the floor yet?

They’ll be there. New deals for Zegras and Terry incoming

 

[Habsrule]

I think that goalies are a lot harder to move as cap dumps that what forwards or defencemen are. Teams only carry two goalies and most likely Murray would not be the starter or backup on many teams with his inconsistent play and his injury history.

 

[Strangelove]

3rd and a 6th was the cost to dump 2 years.

Can't be higher than that for 1 year. Worst case a buyout solves the problem this year

Last year the Sens found a GM who still believed in Murray (health-wise/performance-wise).

Is there a GM who still believes in Murray?

Also... unless Treliving already had a trade in place... other GMs will smell his desperation now.

And I do believe cap-space is even tighter this year than last.

 

[dredeye]

I never realized the actual problem with Murray’s deal is that it’s back loaded. So while the cap hit isn’t huge he’s owed 8 million in actual salary. That’s going to cost a lot of move I would think. At least a first is going. Chicago is a likely destination for him id think.

 

[Cogburn]

Swing and a miss. All they need to do to is make Murray’s cap hit go away and they have 3.05m for Sammy

How so?

Capfriendly shows 8 million over the cap, with Muzzin's cap hit not LTIR'd. With his cap hit removed, that's 2.4 ish over the cap still, with 7 D, 12 F and Murray and Woll as goalies. If you simply vanish Murray, you're still at 2.4 with one spare D and 1 goalie, without resigning Samsonov. A functional roster of 21 skaters and 2 goalies isn't possible mathematically without another move.

 

[Nylanderthal]

How so?

Capfriendly shows 8 million over the cap, with Muzzin's cap hit not LTIR'd. With his cap hit removed, that's 2.4 ish over the cap still, with 7 D, 12 F and Murray and Woll as goalies. If you simply vanish Murray, you're still at 2.4 with one spare D and 1 goalie, without resigning Samsonov. A functional roster of 21 skaters and 2 goalies isn't possible mathematically without another move.

12F 7D 3.05m for Samsonov.
Move any of timmins lafferty or Jarnkrok and replace with a marginally cheaper player if you can’t squeeze the dollars in.
No need to move a nylander or Brodie, or a 1st for that matter.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

I wonder if Chicago could take Muzzin and Murray for a 2024 1st and return a future consideration or a 7th. Not sure how the NTC clause works for this type of trade. If I’m the Leafs I easily do that as that pick will be in the high 20s.

Why would they trade muzzin? He’s all but retired . Putting him on LTIR is going to happen at no detriment to the on ice product .

 

[Divine]

I wouldn’t mind keeping Matt Murray. If he’s injured, he’s not a problem.

If he isn’t injured for the first time in forever, maybe he can do what Bob did and turn back the clock. No way I trade any significant assets to move him. Why are people considered the oft-injury prone Murray is going to find a season of good health AND suck. He put up .900+ the last two seasons, his problem has always been his availability. People are acting like he was Jack Campbell last season.

 

[Cogburn]

View attachment 725628View attachment 725629
12F 7D 3.05m for Samsonov.
Move any of timmins lafferty or Jarnkrok and replace with a marginally cheaper player if you can’t squeeze the dollars in.
No need to move a nylander or Brodie, or a 1st for that matter.

You honestly expect to run with 7 D and 12 F? They are going to eat almost all of that cap hit up, and Samsonov still needs a contract.

You're also just assuming that Murray gets a year ending injury before the start of your season? Or is this a Robidias Island situation?