Value of: Getting Matt Murray out of Toronto

[Sypher04]

I never realized the actual problem with Murray’s deal is that it’s back loaded. So while the cap hit isn’t huge he’s owed 8 million in actual salary. That’s going to cost a lot of move I would think. At least a first is going. Chicago is a likely destination for him id think.

Not a chance.

 

[Nylanderthal]

You honestly expect to run with 7 D and 12 F? They are going to eat almost all of that cap hit up, and Samsonov still needs a contract.

You're also just assuming that Murray gets a year ending injury before the start of your season? Or is this a Robidias Island situation?

100% robidas island situation and I don’t see a problem with 1 spare, when they want ti change the line up they can paper transaction holmberg down and bring in another forward.
Most teams don’t carry 3 full spares on the team. It’s a waste of cap quite franky.

 

[SI90]

They’re probably going to have to do something similar to the Marleau trade.

 

[pth2]

They’re probably going to have to do something similar to the Marleau trade.

Leaf fans better hope a deal is already in place, otherwise any GM worth his salt will see them coming and jack up the price.

It's part of the reason I suspect a first will be required: a cheap price would mean the other team is at risk of jumping ship should a better offer come up.

 

[Sun God Nika]

They’re probably going to have to do something similar to the Marleau trade.

Murray can not be bought out after being acquired.

 

[Ace]

Most of those teams are probably Canadian teams anyways so that doesn't matter much. They'll find a taker, and it won't cost a 1st or a good prospect.

Well we know one is Buffalo. Genius blocked himself from the one place he would still be wanted and playing.

 

[Cancuks]

Why didn't they buy Murray out when they had the chance?

 

[pth2]

Why didn't they buy Murray out when they had the chance?

I'm guessing they have a plan already in place, but that they would only execute if their signed UFAs. Buying out earlier means pain next year, which might have beeen unnecessary.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Why didn't they buy Murray out when they had the chance?

There is a second buyout period /opportunity coming .

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Treliving is not doing his job very well if it costs us more than Dubas paid for him last year.

I think it will end up being Timmins and another decent prospect with the Leafs will get back a depth goalie and maybe some one-way contracts. Something like Murray + Timmins + Abruzzese/Steeves for Stauber + Hardman. If Murray stays healthy, he is a valuable asset that some team would certainly take a chance on at the TDL if he comes at 50%.

And given the way he has talked about the lack of picks, I certainly think he'd rather navigate a 2 million dollar cap penalty with Matthews and Nylander extensions than give up a 1st or even a 2nd. Buying out Murray is a lot more reasonable than it was for Treliving to buyout Monahan (since he'd have a 2.5 mill cap hit this year + 2 mill in the 2nd year).

 

[HuGort]

With the recent signings, Leafs are quite a bit over the cap.

Samsonov/Woll are their guys.

Murray is all but gone, but has negative value.

Quite a few teams have a bit of cap and won't contend this year (Montreal, Detroit, Arizona, etc.)

How much to get rid of him? Late 1st? 2nd (Toronto next 2nd rounder is in 2027)? 3rd? Prospect?

Late first sounds like. Similar to Marleau

 

[Chet Manley]

Treliving is not doing his job very well if it costs us more than Dubas paid for him last year.

I think it will end up being Timmins and another decent prospect with the Leafs will get back a depth goalie and maybe some one-way contracts. Something like Murray + Timmins + Abruzzese/Steeves for Stauber + Hardman. If Murray stays healthy, he is a valuable asset that some team would certainly take a chance on at the TDL if he comes at 50%.

And given the way he has talked about the lack of picks, I certainly think he'd rather navigate a 2 million dollar cap penalty with Matthews and Nylander extensions than give up a 1st or even a 2nd. Buying out Murray is a lot more reasonable than it was for Treliving to buyout Monahan (since he'd have a 2.5 mill cap hit this year + 2 mill in the 2nd year).

Dubas paid for him to play. Murray didn't live up to that and I can't see any other GM thinking he will. What the Leafs paid means nothing.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Late first sounds like. Similar to Marleau

How exactly does it sound like that ? Basis ?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Dubas paid for him to play. Murray didn't live up to that and I can't see any other GM thinking he will. What the Leafs paid means nothing.

There was also more term + money.

Not to mention that if a team decided to retain 50% on Murray right now, he probably gets positive value. We can't afford to do that, but another team may be able to.

 

[KrakenSabresMike]

Not a chance.

How exactly does it sound like that ? Basis ?

8 million in real money + 5 mil in cap hit when no one has a ton of space - and you’re actually over the cap without the trade with your actual goalie still needing a contract ( aka you can’t afford not to trade him so someone else can put you over the barrel + the actual cap and $ costs)

 

[Vitto79]

Not sure why he’s not bought out already

 

[Folignos Helmet]

Murray, Muzzin contract and something minor for Gibson at 50% retained.

Anaheim gets to floor and saves some money in future years. Murray can play 20 games alongside Dostal and whoever else.

Leafs can send Samsonov RFA rights to another teams looking for goalie help.

 

[HABitual Fan]

Without knowing his 10 team NTC it is hard to figure out a deal that would work, I expect if he is moved it will be a 3 way trade with the middle team brokering the deal to get him to a destination he agrees to with 50% retention on the contract in exchange for assets.

Something like

Toronto 1st '24 top 10 protected and Murray for Montreal 3rd
Murray retained at 50% to a team he wants to go to for a '24 2nd

Toronto clears 100% of his cap hit
Montreal gets a 1st and a 2nd pick
3rd team gets Murray at 50%

I will add that I think at his relative young age for a goalie, Murray will be looking to rebound and get a new contract, he won't want to go to a team where he will be getting shelled during their rebuild, hence the need for the retention on his contract to go to a team closer to the cap ceiling.

 

[BB88]

I think it won't take more than a second. Maybe less. I can't see why Anaheim isn't the ones to do it. They need a goalie anyway, and have tons of cap space. heck, they aren't even at the floor yet.

With how much Toronto is over every team can take advantage of Toronto.

Nobody will want Murray, they’d want to trade for the quality players so good look with making it worth it for team accepting to take Murray

 

[KevinRedkey]

There was also more term + money.

Not to mention that if a team decided to retain 50% on Murray right now, he probably gets positive value. We can't afford to do that, but another team may be able to.

Dude... No.

Murray has zero positive value at any cap hit. Sens fans were SHOCKED Toronto took him at all. No other GM is making that mistake without at least a 2nd round pick (or equivalent) coming back as a sweetener.

If he was a UFA his phone would have rang 2-3 times and at least one of those calls would have been a wrong number calling about the other Matt Murray.

 

[Number 57]

3rd and a 6th was the cost to dump 2 years.

Can't be higher than that for 1 year. Worst case a buyout solves the problem this year

I don't know where you're getting this. Calgary had to pay a 1st to get rid of Sean Monahan just one year ago. And Monahan can actually play (when healthy)

It cost the Islanders a future 2nd rounder to get out of Bailey's deal and Murray makes about the same with the same term. That's probably going to be the cost to get out of his deal as well.

They don't have a 2nd for the next 3 years

 

[KevinRedkey]

Murray, Muzzin contract and something minor for Gibson at 50% retained.

Anaheim gets to floor and saves some money in future years. Murray can play 20 games alongside Dostal and whoever else.

Leafs can send Samsonov RFA rights to another teams looking for goalie help.

Muzzin has negative value
Murray has negative value
'Something minor' has minor value

Gibson at 50% has major of value

How does that equation add up exactly?

They don't have a 2nd for the next 3 years

I forget his name because idk anything about him, but they picked a guy in the 2nd in 2022. My guess is that guy will be the equivalent to a 2nd in value and therefore the one traded alongside Murray if it happens.

Maybe minor ads in the form of late round picks on either side, but that's that's the basis of what I see happening.

 

[Grinner]

They’re not trading nylander++ for 33yo karlsson @ 11.5x4. Go to sleep

Wake up! He did say at 35% retained

 

[TheBeastCoast]

8 million in real money + 5 mil in cap hit when no one has a ton of space - and you’re actually over the cap without the trade with your actual goalie still needing a contract ( aka you can’t afford not to trade him so someone else can put you over the barrel + the actual cap and $ costs)

And the Leafs can just buy him out. Oh wow over such a barrel the Leafs are!

 

[Sinbad]

It cost the Islanders a future 2nd rounder to get out of Bailey's deal and Murray makes about the same with the same term. That's probably going to be the cost to get out of his deal as well.

The difference is Bailey was only owed $3.5 m for the upcoming season in actual dollars, Murray’s cap hit is actually less but he is owed $8m in actual dollars for the upcoming season. The difference of $4.5m in actual monies paid will drive the price up and reduce the number of potential landing spots.