General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

[Raccoon Jesus]

Cases in Hawaii and Minnesota have been confirmed where the infected hadn't recently traveled abroad. The Minnesota case predates South Africa's announcement about omicron so maybe the spike starting in mid-November is based in part on omicron.

When I saw numbers spike out of nowhere and the Omicron announcement that was my first instinct, 'no way this isn't already here.'

Gonna be optimistic and speculate this is the last surge before it burns out into an endemic annoyance like the flu.

 

[Lt Dan]

When I saw numbers spike out of nowhere and the Omicron announcement that was my first instinct, 'no way this isn't already here.'

Gonna be optimistic and speculate this is the last surge before it burns out into an endemic annoyance like the flu.

I am thinking cold more than flu. Colds are coronaviruses after all . But WTF do I know? I am the first to admit that I am a dumbass

Cases in Hawaii and Minnesota have been confirmed where the infected hadn't recently traveled abroad. The Minnesota case predates South Africa's announcement about omicron so maybe the spike starting in mid-November is based in part on omicron.

I , personally, am not so sure of this, but as I states above I am a dumbass

Aside from AZ and NM, the coldest parts of the country are having outbreaks, while the warmer portions are, so far, holding on.

The timing is correct for another wave as well. We shall see how much Omicron was involved in this vs weather and timing.

 

[Kudelski37]

This requires more thought than I time for right now. The map shows areas by # of cases per Capita. If you look at 7 day averages for cases, several red states have double digit decreased while some yellow/orange states have double digit increases. If it were simply based on weather based habits/actions, I would think the wave(s) would follow a similar start and profile as last fall/winter. Last fall/winter cases rose from September until mid-January, with small drops around Thanksgiving and late December, when vaccine distribution picked up. This year is different with a large decrease in October followed by a plateau and a second increase over the last 2-3 weeks. It would be very interesting if it weren't killing people.

 

[Lt Dan]

This requires more thought than I time for right now. The map shows areas by # of cases per Capita. If you look at 7 day averages for cases, several red states have double digit decreased while some yellow/orange states have double digit increases. If it were simply based on weather based habits/actions, I would think the wave(s) would follow a similar start and profile as last fall/winter. Last fall/winter cases rose from September until mid-January, with small drops around Thanksgiving and late December, when vaccine distribution picked up. This year is different with a large decrease in October followed by a plateau and a second increase over the last 2-3 weeks. It would be very interesting if it weren't killing people.

I would counter with timing being the largest factor

Our summer wave was also much later this year

Covid waves like many things are cyclical and it is not just in the US
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trying-sense-covids-mysterious-2-121821028.html



The map show case rate per 100k but also factors in things like infection rate

The case rate is highest in the coldest states

Some of these states also have the highest Vaxx numbers in the nation

Look at VT specifically they are tied with Mass for the highest vaxx rate and they are both states
experiencing the worst of the surge right now. Now also look at RI, Maine, PA and NJ
All some of the highest vaxed states , also some of the coldest

 

[Kudelski37]

I would counter with timing being the largest factor
View attachment 486804
Our summer wave was also much later this year

Covid waves like many things are cyclical and it is not just in the US
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trying-sense-covids-mysterious-2-121821028.html



The map show case rate per 100k but also factors in things like infection rate

The case rate is highest in the coldest states
View attachment 486806

Some of these states also have the highest Vaxx numbers in the nation
View attachment 486808
Look at VT specifically they are tied with Mass for the highest vaxx rate and they are both states
experiencing the worst of the surge right now. Now also look at RI, Maine, PA and NJ
All some of the highest vaxed states , also some of the coldest
View attachment 486809

If weather, and being inside to avoid the cold/heat, is a major factor, then I don't see how a seasonal wave would be months late/early. The weather and how people react to it hasn't changed in the last year. Maybe the vaccine has decoupled the waves from weather? The seasonal wave is now mostly among the unvaccinated/immune compromised while the vaccinated have waves based on variants. Just a guess from an engineer.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

RE: Omicron variant; while it's still too early to draw conclusions, some of the initial data appears promising ("promising" meaning perhaps this strain is in-fact slightly less lethal, if more transmissible):

Explainer-Could the Omicron variant bring milder illness? (msn.com)

 

[Lt Dan]

If weather, and being inside to avoid the cold/heat, is a major factor, then I don't see how a seasonal wave would be months late/early. The weather and how people react to it hasn't changed in the last year. Maybe the vaccine has decoupled the waves from weather? The seasonal wave is now mostly among the unvaccinated/immune compromised while the vaccinated have waves based on variants. Just a guess from an engineer.

I did start my post with timing being the biggest factor. The waves are behind where they were the last year , but worldwide the waves are still predictable
if you didn't read this, please do

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trying-sense-covids-mysterious-2-121821028.html

 

[Lt Dan]

Cases higher
Hosp up 7 from yesterday
ICU up 1

 

[RonM11]

U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker

Infection rate in Orange County two days ago was 1.00, now it's 1.05. Anything over 1.1 is considered exponential growth.

Cases per 100K in Orange County two days ago was 7.3, now it's 9.0. We may be seeing the beginning of a spike in this county.

Cases in Los Angeles County for yesterday was 1,970. Just three days ago, it was about a third of that.

The spike for the country started three weeks ago.

 

[RonM11]

I am thinking cold more than flu. Colds are coronaviruses after all . But WTF do I know? I am the first to admit that I am a dumbass




I , personally, am not so sure of this, but as I states above I am a dumbass

Aside from AZ and NM, the coldest parts of the country are having outbreaks, while the warmer portions are, so far, holding on.

The timing is correct for another wave as well. We shall see how much Omicron was involved in this vs weather and timing.

You are right about coronaviruses typically causing common colds. The four historical coronaviruses identified in humans are labeled as B814, 229E, IBV, and OC43, which all cause colds and in some cases, minor respiratory distress. (See link below.)

I heard it last year on TV in passing: speculation that a localized and deadly epidemic in the United States in the early 1890s was caused by either 229E or OC43 as the suspected virus. If this is true, this might be what we will eventually see what happens with SARS-CoV-2, just unfortunately on a much larger scale.

If I can find a reference article, I'll post it.

Coronavirus - Wikipedia

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

I would counter with timing being the largest factor
View attachment 486804
Our summer wave was also much later this year

Covid waves like many things are cyclical and it is not just in the US
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trying-sense-covids-mysterious-2-121821028.html



The map show case rate per 100k but also factors in things like infection rate

The case rate is highest in the coldest states
View attachment 486806

Some of these states also have the highest Vaxx numbers in the nation
View attachment 486808
Look at VT specifically they are tied with Mass for the highest vaxx rate and they are both states
experiencing the worst of the surge right now. Now also look at RI, Maine, PA and NJ
All some of the highest vaxed states , also some of the coldest
View attachment 486809

Just since I can add some insight on this from having the personal perspective of living in Maine, there's a stark rural/urban split as far as the vaccination rates go. Not surprisingly, the virus is spreading most here in the least vaccinated parts of the state, which seems to be reflective of the broader trend that unvaccinated pockets of the country are what's keeping this thing going in the US. We've had a pretty sustained peak overall here for several months now, though it finally seems to be slowing down a bit (but who knows what will happen with Omicron seeming to spread twice as fast as Delta and rendering immunity from prior infection seemingly useless).

(Cumberland County is where the largest "metropolitan" city is in the state, Portland.)

 

[RonM11]

Kind of related to what we were talking to about above...229E makes an appearance.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/04/omicron-coronavirus-transmissible-cold-variant/

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

"Promising news" so far RE: this variant:

Most early Omicron cases are mild, WHO says (nypost.com) (by the way: I had to chuckle at that second picture - when I got my booster last Friday night, I literally didn't even feel it, and my daughter asked, "Did you know they just stuck you??." And I hate needles).

South African rand firmer on early signs Omicron causing mild infections | Reuters (by the way 2: nice coins).

 

[Bandit]

I am thinking cold more than flu. Colds are coronaviruses after all . But WTF do I know? I am the first to admit that I am a dumbass

I , personally, am not so sure of this, but as I states above I am a dumbass

Joe Rogan, is that you?

 

[Lt Dan]

Joe Rogan, is that you?

LOl no. My name is not Joe.

I can tell you, if I had his cheddar, I wouldn't be on here. I would be like the Aerosmith album and be on Permanent Vacation

 

[Lt Dan]

This was Friday

Today

Once again. we don't yet know what it timing, the weather, Omicron, and what is Bryan Adams' fault but it very much appears that the winter wave is here

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It's always Bryan Adams' fault

 

[Lt Dan]

Almost 500 cases per day , which is the most cases....

Hosp down big from Friday 176---> 169
ICU up 1


We will see if today was an anomaly later in the week. Remember that tomorrow is low test number/case count day

 

[Lt Dan]

"Promising news" so far RE: this variant:

Most early Omicron cases are mild, WHO says (nypost.com) (by the way: I had to chuckle at that second picture - when I got my booster last Friday night, I literally didn't even feel it, and my daughter asked, "Did you know they just stuck you??." And I hate needles).

South African rand firmer on early signs Omicron causing mild infections | Reuters (by the way 2: nice coins).

I got covid arm from my booster


It was a little more swollen that this with a smaller surface area

 

[cyclones22]

The booster definitely did a number on my arm this time around. 3 hours later and my arm hurt, which wasn't the case at all until much later on the previous 2 shots. Overall side effects lasted for about 30 hours, same as shot #2.

 

[Lt Dan]

The booster definitely did a number on my arm this time around. 3 hours later and my arm hurt, which wasn't the case at all until much later on the previous 2 shots. Overall side effects lasted for about 30 hours, same as shot #2.

Hmmm....

It is (Still) so crazy to me how different everyone's reactions are

My experience

Shot 1- an hour later. Covid confusion. I was emailing my assistant and she called me and asked WTH was wrong with me. I read the email I sent her and it was in tongues. the next morning It felt like I had drank a bottle of tequila the night before and I was running a few . 8 hours later...all good. Also a massive bruise that looked the British planes in ww2

Shot 2- Nothing! Literally like a I got placebo

Shot 3- Covid arm. Shot on Wed. Reaction Thu- now. Much less severe each day. Itchy and a little warm to the touch

 

[cyclones22]

Yeah, for me, shot #1 was arm pain during sleep the first night then a slightly "off" feeling the following day. Shot #2 my arm barely hurt and it was chills the first night for a few hours, then damn it's hot in there for a few hours, then bouts of feeling normal and off then getting a headache. Then feeling 100% the following morning. Shot #3 was my arm hurts already? Then nothing until I woke up the following morning feeling a little off but functional. Took a couple of Advil and ran errands etc. But that evening, chills before sleep, woke up hot 3 hours later, felt a little off in the morning, but 100% by lunch time.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

J&J here. 1st shot late-April (mid-day) - felt OK the rest of the day itself, but the next day, had my worst headache ever and my thighs felt like poisoned Jell-o (oddly, though, no arm soreness). Felt "OK" the after waking up the next day. J&J booster last Friday night; extremely mild (honestly barely perceptible) headache a few hours later at bedtime, and thighs were a bit sore the next day, but not even close to serious enough to not go swimming with my kids at our local 'Y' - and again, oddly, no arm pain whatsoever.

 

[RonM11]

I got covid arm from my booster


It was a little more swollen that this with a smaller surface area

No worries, LT. That's just a mild reaction to the "GPS chip" in the vaccine. You should be good to go once the RNA settles down from being all f***ed up (a/k/a "altered").

 

[KINGS17]

RE: Omicron variant; while it's still too early to draw conclusions, some of the initial data appears promising ("promising" meaning perhaps this strain is in-fact slightly less lethal, if more transmissible):

Explainer-Could the Omicron variant bring milder illness? (msn.com)

In general, viruses want to live. If a virus can successfully evolve without you even knowing it is there (i.e. you don't get sick), it will do it. In the process the virus gets passed from person to person without people even realizing it.