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General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

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2 days in a row of all good news?!?!?!?

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Under 500 cases!
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Hosp down from 225 yesterday
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ICU down from 53 yesterday
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I think we have earned this!
 
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Except I have a hard time trusting OC reporting. They are similar to Florida's.

The infection rate has been well over 1 for three weeks now. It's scary as hell. We are on the precipice of another surge if the infection rate doesn't abate.

Infection Rate.png
 
RonM11 said:
Except I have a hard time trusting OC reporting. They are similar to Florida's.

The infection rate has been well over 1 for three weeks now. It's scary as hell. We are on the precipice of another surge if the infection rate doesn't abate.

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We are on the precipice of another surge just based on temperature and cycles.

One thing to remember is there is a delay in all of the numbers

Cases- about a week
Hospitalization about 24 hours
Deaths- weeks

Other than cases leading to hosp when lead to deaths, I put the least creedence clearwater revival in the case numbers. But my prediction is that we should start seeing the hospital numbers shoot up in about 2 weeks
In my really bad opinion, the real goal here is to protect the hospital system. It was BAD last winter. Hopefully this winter is much better.
 
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No, I agree with you about protecting the hospital system. That's not a bad opinion. That's the real tragedy of this pandemic. When the hospital systems fail across the country, and hospital staff has to choose who lives and who dies, that is where our health system is badly exposed. It's scary as hell. Something I for sure have never experienced, and hope to never ever again.
 
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Our numbers in NorCal are steady. Really the ICU hasn't changed since August. I coded someone this morning. Landed on my unit and in about 3 minutes, already on chest doing compressions. Got a pulse back but now anoxic ( brain dead). Could have been watching their favorite tv show now and instead resuscitated and on a few drips to stay alive long enough for family to come to the window and say goodbye. Horrible way to go. At least it isn't dragged out for weeks though..fast. All we can ask for if you're gonna go.

Be grateful for everyday. It can all change in a moment. Make smart decisions too. Vaccines help.
 
Nationally, cases right now are much lower than this time last year 73k v 128k, respectively. The cases have been in the 70-75k range for the last 3 weeks. Last year we were in the middle of 4 straight months (Sept-Jan) of rising cases, excluding reduced testing over the holidays. Fingers crossed that the mix of vaccinated and recovered provides enough immunity to keep from having a large spike like last year.
This is using 7day average for 11/11 from the Washington Post.
 
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Kudelski37 said:
Nationally, cases right now are much lower than this time last year 73k v 128k, respectively. The cases have been in the 70-75k range for the last 3 weeks. Last year we were in the middle of 4 straight months (Sept-Jan) of rising cases, excluding reduced testing over the holidays. Fingers crossed that the mix of vaccinated and recovered provides enough immunity to keep from having a large spike like last year.
This is using 7day average for 11/11 from the Washington Post.
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I think that it is largely an effect of timing.
These waves are about the same around the world and our summer surge was much later this year than last (about 5 weeks)
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I think this wave is gonna really gain fuel after thanksgiving for not just timing, but traveling and Tgiving.

I hope I am wrong, but.....
 
I wonder if all the hampered air travel is going to be a blessing in disguise.

I was going to fly out to NC in Dec to visit some friends and do Kings/Canes but been rethinking it a bit lately. More because of fares/flights/layovers than covid, but still.
 
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Papa Mocha 15 said:
Our numbers in NorCal are steady. Really the ICU hasn't changed since August. I coded someone this morning. Landed on my unit and in about 3 minutes, already on chest doing compressions. Got a pulse back but now anoxic ( brain dead). Could have been watching their favorite tv show now and instead resuscitated and on a few drips to stay alive long enough for family to come to the window and say goodbye. Horrible way to go. At least it isn't dragged out for weeks though..fast. All we can ask for if you're gonna go.

Be grateful for everyday. It can all change in a moment. Make smart decisions too. Vaccines help.
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Papa. Hadn’t previously noted/realised that you were on the front line of Covid to this degree. I’m in the UK but just to say I appreciate everything you and your colleagues around the world have been doing since this started. Really I mean it, you have all been through so much, done so much and it is something I’ll never forget.

I hope that doesn’t sound patronising in any way.
 
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Statto said:
Papa. Hadn’t previously noted/realised that you were on the front line of Covid to this degree. I’m in the UK but just to say I appreciate everything you and your colleagues around the world have been doing since this started. Really I mean it, you have all been through so much, done so much and it is something I’ll never forget.

I hope that doesn’t sound patronising in any way.
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Thanks. Ya, it's been interesting. I post here cause it gets crap off my chest, clears my head when I need to vent and dive back in, but also cause I'd like to think it helps show what the news isn't showing so we can consider and discuss.

At the end of the day, vaccinated or unvaccinated, we're all people and patients have families that are depending on them. Some of this has been entirely preventable and with all the misinformation out there, I think we could have done much better than we have so I pick those fights when I have the time and inclination to do so. But thanks for saying as much. It goes both ways here. You all have given me a lot of room to create some space, clear my own head and consider different POVs so it helps make me better as well in terms of mindset. I can drop it here and leave it here knowing it's out of my system. So right back at ya :)
 
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Nationwide, not so much.

Cases rising from the plateau, as was totally expected. We are in for a brutal winter, in more ways than one.
 

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RonM11 said:
Nationwide, not so much.

Cases rising from the plateau, as was totally expected. We are in for a brutal winter, in more ways than one.
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US COVID-19 cases and deaths by state | USAFacts
I really suck at posting links, but compared this time last year to today, covid cases has been cut in half in the 7-day average cases from 155k to 75., but the Covid deaths count has not dropped as much.

An interesting place that has had few deaths is Africa. Compared to the US, with a population of 1.3 Billion, they have had about 220K deaths compared to the US who has a population of roughly 360 million and have had 754k death. Im sure there are some under reporting, but that is a huge disproportion.
 
KingsofLA said:
US COVID-19 cases and deaths by state | USAFacts
I really suck at posting links, but compared this time last year to today, covid cases has been cut in half in the 7-day average cases from 155k to 75., but the Covid deaths count has not dropped as much.

.
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Yes, but.... Ron is correct.

The waves are off from a year ago. The summer wave much later this time.


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I have zero doubt that we will have a winter wave. I am guessing that it will really start in early December and that Thanksgiving will be the kindling.

the death count is still high because it is really the lagging indicator. Not only does it take time for a case or hospitalized patient to die but the death is weeks or sometimes months old by the time it is reported

Case numbers are generally 5-7 days old (from the date of the swab)
Hosp and ICU are 1 day old.
 
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KingsofLA said:
US COVID-19 cases and deaths by state | USAFacts
I really suck at posting links, but compared this time last year to today, covid cases has been cut in half in the 7-day average cases from 155k to 75., but the Covid deaths count has not dropped as much.

An interesting place that has had few deaths is Africa. Compared to the US, with a population of 1.3 Billion, they have had about 220K deaths compared to the US who has a population of roughly 360 million and have had 754k death. Im sure there are some under reporting, but that is a huge disproportion.
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The median age in Africa is 19.7. For the ages of 50+ in the USA, there have been ~700k deaths through 11/10/21, per the CDC. Age is a major factor in covid deaths.
 
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LT Dan said:
Yes, but.... Ron is correct.

The waves are off from a year ago. The summer wave much later this time.


upload_2021-11-12_8-49-29-png.479470


I have zero doubt that we will have a winter wave. I am guessing that it will really start in early December and that Thanksgiving will be the kindling.

the death count is still high because it is really the lagging indicator. Not only does it take time for a case or hospitalized patient to die but the death is weeks or sometimes months old by the time it is reported

Case numbers are generally 5-7 days old (from the date of the swab)
Hosp and ICU are 1 day old.
Click to expand...
Is that a summer wave or a Delta/going back to school wave? Living in Virginia, some school systems started back up in early August. Almost all of the kids returned to in class learning and normal social distancing.
 
Kudelski37 said:
Is that a summer wave or a Delta/going back to school wave? Living in Virginia, some school systems started back up in early August. Almost all of the kids returned to in class learning and normal social distancing.
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IMO The name isn't really important .
I think the cause is the Delta and then timing. But the waves are lasting roughly the same time, regardless of country and they seem to be inevitable.

I think there is at least one more wave coming. Whether it is fueled with weather, Holiday gatherings or a new variant, it is coming


Edit
It is starting. I am guessing this is weather driven, but I am also not right between the ears, so we shall see
Minnesota COVID-19 deaths top 9,000 as new cases soar
 
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