General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

[KingLB]

You're probably rich and can afford it.

Pretty sure he is AA’s agent, so probably brought in a cool $250k this year in commission.

 

[MBH]

That is the hope and I think that is the one thing everyone can agree with since this pandemic started...

but we also thought this back in June and this summer was far deadlier than I think anything thought.

A big variable this summer though was a total lack of lockdowns and very limited mandates nationwide.
If history repeats itself , this winter could theoretically be much worse.
Obviously none of us hope for this nor have a crystal ball.

This is Michigan's # of ICU patients.
I'm a big believer in the seasonal spread of the virus.
Within the next few weeks, we should have a really good idea of what this winter will look like in Michigan.
If we start plateauing soon? I think we can say we're putting COVID in the rearview mirror.
If we're just starting to ramp up right now? I'm not sure what to think.

I think that, given the openness of society, it would still be progress to match the totals from last winter.
But I hope, for many reasons, we improve on them.

 

[MBH]

You're probably rich and can afford it.

Haha.
Oh yeah.
That's funny.

 

[KINGS17]

Haha.
Oh yeah.
That's funny.

Sorry, I thought you may have been someone with a new user name who has posted here before. My remark was slathered in sarcasm sauce.

 

[MBH]

Pretty sure he is AA’s agent, so probably brought in a cool $250k this year in commission.

HAHA.
I like watching AA play.

IMO, he's not actually injured.
I suspect he's sitting out because he doesn't want to risk injury in camp since he only has a one-year deal.
Two years ago, he hurt his back crashing into the boards in a pre-season game during what should have been his big contract year - and he never skated right all year. Returned from injury - was demoted from his 2C job within a week. Saw his icetime crater.
Had he been able to match that 30-20-50 season, AA would probably be earning $5M a year.
Instead, he's earning considerably less.

AA needs a big year if he's ever going to make serious money. This is probably his last good chance to have that season and prove he's worth a longer term deal.

 

[MBH]

Sorry, I thought you may have been someone with a new user name who has posted here before. My remark was slathered in sarcasm sauce.

I don't take offense.
I'm from Canada orginally and support universal health care.
Obamacare is a disaster. But it does offer some peace of mind.

 

[Bandit]

We pay $780 a month for Obamacare.
Husband/Wife.
Mostly doesn't kick in until we spend $6000 out of pocket.
If I spend $6000 (only happened once), that doesn't count towards any care my wife receives. She needs to spend $6000, too, before it kicks in for her.

Yup, it's awful.

 

[Lt Dan]

This is Michigan's # of ICU patients.
I'm a big believer in the seasonal spread of the virus.
Within the next few weeks, we should have a really good idea of what this winter will look like in Michigan.
If we start plateauing soon? I think we can say we're putting COVID in the rearview mirror.
If we're just starting to ramp up right now? I'm not sure what to think.


View attachment 468483

I think that, given the openness of society, it would still be progress to match the totals from last winter.
But I hope, for many reasons, we improve on them.

This is a great article about covid's cycles
Trying to Make Sense of COVID's Mysterious 2-Month Cycle



Nationwide....I think the winter wave will start in about 30-45 days

MI's timeline looks to be a little behind the US as a whole...

We know that the virus likes and thrives in cold and has these "2 month cycles" that are really closer to 75 days

When this next wave start will partially depend on weather, timing (relative to the last wave) and of course a variant. We could also see one of the past variants "re-emerge or re-energize" with the weather helping it

This graph compares CA, MI and the US as a whole

It looks like MI is close to peaking and have a nice downward trend . MI being a little behind other's curves could be very beneficial because it should have a delay of the next wave.


Everyone has been wrong about this virus so far though. Many overestimated it's killing power, while many underestimated it.
I don't think anyone has expected as many waves as we have had.

Coming full circle, I would hope that this winter is much more mild than last year , but who the f*** knows at this point

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

This is a great article about covid's cycles
Trying to Make Sense of COVID's Mysterious 2-Month Cycle



Nationwide....I think the winter wave will start in about 30-45 days

MI's timeline looks to be a little behind the US as a whole...
View attachment 468484


We know that the virus likes and thrives in cold and has these "2 month cycles" that are really closer to 75 days

When this next wave start will partially depend on weather, timing (relative to the last wave) and of course a variant. We could also see one of the past variants "re-emerge or re-energize" with the weather helping it

This graph compares CA, MI and the US as a whole
View attachment 468485
It looks like MI is close to peaking and have a nice downward trend . MI being a little behind other's curves could be very beneficial because it should have a delay of the next wave.


Everyone has been wrong about this virus so far though. Many overestimated it's killing power, while many underestimated it.
I don't think anyone has expected as many waves as we have had.

Coming full circle, I would hope that this winter is much more mild than last year , but who the f*** knows at this point

Not to sound overly negative, but I think it's gonna be a bit of a shitshow this winter. Spring we should be closer to being on the other side of it but not fully through All the remaining people who haven't gotten it yet and are unvaccinated will get steamrolled. It also depends how the kids do on vaccinations. Kids, especially toddlers, have a high rate of spread and viral load, while high school kids are passing it back and forth at high rates. I think until vaccines are up higher, we're gonna keep going. We'll get over this finish line but it will be with the bottom 1/3rd of anti vaxxers kicking and screaming who are going to slow the momentum. People are gonna have to lose their jobs and not let into the public setting (bars, restaurants etc) before the message hits home.

One thing anyone can do is check out their local school district and compare the high schools vs the elementary and middle schools. Go their Covid dashboard and you can see how the kids in the area are faring at their schools. Highschools have been higher in our area by comparison.

 

[Lt Dan]

Not to sound overly negative, but I think it's gonna be a bit of a shitshow this winter. Spring we should be closer to being on the other side of it but not fully through All the remaining people who haven't gotten it yet and are unvaccinated will get steamrolled. It also depends how the kids do on vaccinations. Kids, especially toddlers, have a high rate of spread and viral load, while high school kids are passing it back and forth at high rates. I think until vaccines are up higher, we're gonna keep going. We'll get over this finish line but it will be with the bottom 1/3rd of anti vaxxers kicking and screaming who are going to slow the momentum. People are gonna have to lose their jobs and not let into the public setting (bars, restaurants etc) before the message hits home.

One thing anyone can do is check out their local school district and compare the high schools vs the elementary and middle schools. Go their Covid dashboard and you can see how the kids in the area are faring at their schools. Highschools have been higher in our area by comparison.

Entirely possible.

I am guilty of being an eternal optimist in a lot of areas. But, I have to imagine with almost 45 million cases and 65% of the US population receiving at least one dose, that quite a bit of steam will be released from the kettle.

 

[Lt Dan]

Looking good!
Under 500 cases!

Hosp down from 230 yesterday

ICU unchanged

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

Ruh-roh:

Scandinavians curb Moderna shots for some younger patients (msn.com)

Yet another reason I'm hoping/praying J&J has a pediatric version of the vaccine (I'll take my kids' chances on bad blood clotting vs. serious heart inflammation, assuming the CDC doesn't find anything else "bad" with the pediatric version) available by Summer 2022...

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It says 'rare' but doesn't say how rare, which is some great scaremongering. Ugh.

 

[Lt Dan]

The downward trends continue
Way under 500 cases
Hosp down from 224 yesterday
a nice drop in ICU from 60 to 54

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

This is pretty much why health care workers need to be vaccinated. They take care of sick people who do not have the immune system to take care of themselves constantly. Unless one is on a med/surge floor doing only appendectomies, nurses and health care workers are constantly coming into contact with weakened immune systems.

A man with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has died from COVID-19 after contracting the virus from his unvaccinated caregiver.
Paul Kirsch, 65, was fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in April, but was still careful about getting the virus, his wife, Emily Kirsch, told The Oregonian. He only met with a select group of vaccinated friends and family, and he made sure to keep their gatherings outside, Emily said.

A 65-Year-Old Man With ALS Died of COVID After He Caught the Virus From His Unvaccinated Caregiver

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Ruh-roh:

Scandinavians curb Moderna shots for some younger patients (msn.com)

Yet another reason I'm hoping/praying J&J has a pediatric version of the vaccine (I'll take my kids' chances on bad blood clotting vs. serious heart inflammation, assuming the CDC doesn't find anything else "bad" with the pediatric version) available by Summer 2022...

The incidence of myocarditis due to the mRNA vaccines is quite literally orders of magnitude lower than the incidence of myocarditis from an actual Covid infection.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

The incidence of myocarditis due to the mRNA vaccines is quite literally orders of magnitude lower than the incidence of myocarditis from an actual Covid infection.

I'm aware of that; my specific point of contention is that I'd rather gamble on the potential side-effect of the J&J vaccine vs. the Moderna vaccine. This is especially so for my son, given that there were almost no instances of the J&J vaccine-related-TTS occurring in males (at least, not that I've read about - if I'm wrong there, I will humbly sit corrected).

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I'm aware of that; my specific point of contention is that I'd rather gamble on the potential side-effect of the J&J vaccine vs. the Moderna vaccine. This is especially so for my son, given that there were almost no instances of the J&J vaccine-related-TTS occurring in males (at least, not that I've read about - if I'm wrong there, I will humbly sit corrected).

It just seems rather absurd to me. The chances of you or your son experiencing any deleterious side effect from any of these vaccines is close to zero.

You’re more likely to be struck by lightning than develop myocarditis from an mRNA vaccine. And of those who develop it, a fraction need hospital care. Your son is in significantly more danger driving around in a car than he is getting an mRNA vaccine.

 

[fivehole32]

Just a heads up if you haven't seen it yet. Staples Center posted on Twitter that it and the Microsoft theater is following county guidelines, not city guidelines on checking for vaccinations in light of the recent city mandate that all indoor events and shopping must check for vaccination or there will be no admittance. County guideline is still either proof of vaccination or proof of a clear test within 72 hours of admission.

I'm not entirely sure how they are allowed to pick and choose, but I am sure money is involved. Some STHs probably raised holy hell. If they are un vaccinated and the option of a clear test isn't allowed, but it was when they purchased the tickets, those ticket holders were probably looking for refunds.

 

[Lt Dan]

Great case count
A tiny increase in hosp 220----> 223
Nice drop in ICU 54----> 47

Have a good weekend and I'll update this Tuesday

 

[Lt Dan]

This is Saturday- Tuesday

234.5 cases per day
Hosp down big from Friday 223-211
ICU down 2

 

[KingsofLA]

This is pretty much why health care workers need to be vaccinated. They take care of sick people who do not have the immune system to take care of themselves constantly. Unless one is on a med/surge floor doing only appendectomies, nurses and health care workers are constantly coming into contact with weakened immune systems.

A man with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has died from COVID-19 after contracting the virus from his unvaccinated caregiver.
Paul Kirsch, 65, was fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in April, but was still careful about getting the virus, his wife, Emily Kirsch, told The Oregonian. He only met with a select group of vaccinated friends and family, and he made sure to keep their gatherings outside, Emily said.

A 65-Year-Old Man With ALS Died of COVID After He Caught the Virus From His Unvaccinated Caregiver

Another option is home rapid testing. Lets not forget that vaccinated can get Covid and spread it. So everyone should test if you develop any Covid symptoms.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

Another option is home rapid testing. Lets not forget that vaccinated can get Covid and spread it. So everyone should test if you develop any Covid symptoms.

Of course, but it shouldn't replace getting vaccinated for HCW. The risk and liability is way too high. Many post vaccinated have caught it and have had little to no symptoms but can spread it or not even know they have it. It's a shorter time frame and a smaller viral load but if someone else is immune compromised, it won't really matter because the Pt is already in a weakened state. Anyone who has symptoms should get tested, but looking around that's not the case in the US anyway since some people ignore it, don't want to believe it, nor don't have time or want to. Situations like the one in the news article are the reasons policies and procedures and mandates even exist.

 

[KingsofLA]

Of course, but it shouldn't replace getting vaccinated for HCW. The risk and liability is way too high. Many post vaccinated have caught it and have had little to no symptoms but can spread it or not even know they have it. It's a shorter time frame and a smaller viral load but if someone else is immune compromised, it won't really matter because the Pt is already in a weakened state. Anyone who has symptoms should get tested, but looking around that's not the case in the US anyway since some people ignore it, don't want to believe it, nor don't have time or want to. Situations like the one in the news article are the reasons policies and procedures and mandates even exist.

My point is, the vaccinated can catch it, spread it and as the article you shared , they can also pass away from Covid. That is not my opinion, that is from the CDC. Im no doctor, so i or anyone else who is not a doctor should be telling folks who should get the jab. No one should be forced, let alone be giving medical advice because of an isolated case. That is not science. Should there be a resolution, of course, but to say the vaccine is the end all, is not being honest of what is happening.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Rapid testing should be the norm, no matter what the situation, vaccinated or not. I'm still more than a little irked that it's not widely available/practical.