You can't both, "surely like to play out this season with the guys he's got" and not "put himself in a siutation where Nelson and Palms simply walk this season." Logically those two sentiments are at odds with each other.
Lou could've signed either of them at any point from July 1, 2024 up until this moment, but here we are in limbo with a track record of a GM not just rarely ever trading a player at the deadline, but also letting players walk in free agency for nothing.
So literally don't know how you're drawing these conclusions when Lou's literal track record suggests he'll do the exact opposite.
If we're talking about what I would do, my modus operandi would clearly be:
As the trade deadline approaches, you must re-sign or move your upcoming UFAs by that deadline if you are not well on your way to the playoffs with a realistic shot at making noise. Basta. Even if you still want to see how the respective players finish their season for your team and then are willing to simply see that cap space get freed up for your summer shopping list, MeMyselfAndI wouldn't be one to ever skip out on the opportunity to turn assets I'm not keeping or winning with into other assets. Period.
That's not how I'd roll.
Now, the part you quoted above kind of left off the next section that clarifies where I was going with that, namely:
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If they're not moved, expect him to keep them in the fold or know exactly where they want to sign and make a deal with that team in the offseason (granted, one only getting 'pennies for the dollar', so to speak).
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I've obviously been watching every move Lou makes he's been here. My belief, based on what we've seen from Lou and in the hockey world of late, is that if Palms and Nelson are here after that trade deadline, they're either being re-signed (most likely?) or their UFA rights will be moved to the team they wish to sign with.
When it comes to vets like this with a history with this team or Lou in general, I don't think they'll be part of anything that sees them move along without the NYI gaining something in the process. It's part of whatever loyalty magic stuff Lou seems to get done in the background more often than not.
Example:
If Nelson finishes off the season here and is (behind the scenes while golfing, of course) basically in agreement with Guerin on a contract with the Wild this offseason, I expect to see Guerin send the Isles something like Stramel and a 2026 2nd for the rights to Nelson right after the Cup is awarded and thus, before July 1st.
There have been enough moves of this nature in recent years to think that the GMs see this kind of thing as good business practice.
Caveat:
Whereas I'd thoroughly reckon with this premise, I'm aware that Lou would perhaps have to settle for a bit less on the return.
In addition, if he does this kind of thing with Palms as well, then I'd not expect anything more than a future midrounder.
Again, this isn't the path I (or perhaps most of us would take) but I thoroughly assume it's one Lou would seek and be able to make a reality.
This all said, if Brock and Palms are simply allowed to walk for nothing whatsoever, even that wouldn't surprise me. You and I may see that kind of thing as the last straw but I'm not convinced Malkin would.