GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[ER89]

yeah that depends - Dubas doesn't seem to be doing very well trade-wise but he's made up for it with his FA signings.

yeah he doesn't do well in trades for sure. His FAs have mostly been good and so it's worrying that we don't have the cap to sign any legit FAs unless we trade.

 

[rimshot]

Keep in mind Leafs still have Engvall and Sandin as qualified but unsigned RFAs and the current free cap space approx $2.0 mil wouldn't even cover their contracts without putting the Leafs into the red.

I fully agree if the Leafs went out and signed a $2-3 mil UFA (using the offseason +10% extra cap slush fund) now to fill that 2nd line LW spot, before trading Kerfoot then that would put the Leafs into a very poor bargaining/trade position because everyone would know Leafs need to dump him to become cap compliant again. You would get .60 cents on the dollar in return without leverage.

I would certainly be doing as you suggest and make a trade 1st and then sign or acquire another player(s) for the Kerfoot $3.5 mil recaptured space.

Do you seriously believe that there would only be one bidder for a 50 point top 6 forward that PKs and has a salary of $750,000? In this world, more than one bidder means competition. Perhaps you are hinting at collusion among non Leaf GMs.

 

[DcW]

Losing free agents for nothing is such a bad way to manage. I was really hoping they would flip the likes of Holl or Kerfoot for younger guys on entry level deals. This has been missing from this team. NHL ready, bottom 6 forwards before they break out. Guys like Cammano from Dallas, Katchouk from Chicago etc.

 

[rocketman588]

I will accept that with Matthews and Marner but Bunting's xWAR was 43% lower. As I said - the projection for Matthews and Marner was a roughly 2 GAR drop when you normalize for total GAR per season (Projected GAR/(SUM(Projected GAR)/SUM(2021-2022 GAR)). A 2 GAR drop is about 10% for Marner and 6% for Matthews. Bunting is where the real regression happens with his projected GAR being 12.7 (normalized) instead of 25.6.


Are those tables public? If so I will make a roster builder out of it.

They have some on money puck I believe

 

[The Podium]

I know they are different kinds of defensive defensemen, but how different is this team if you sub out Muzzin for Marino?

You get more mobile, less physical, balance the RHD and LHD getting Sandin in the lineup, 1 mill in cap space and Holl becomes even more expendable as well.

Seems like something worth at least exploring.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Marino was nearly dealt recently - not sure if it was Toronto that was close

 

[MarMarSab3]

People are worried about losing Sandin over Muzzin. Which is understandable.

I'm ok losing Sandin if it means getting an equivalent C in return, like a Shane Pinto, Peyton Krebs type

 

[BertCorbeau]

I know they are different kinds of defensive defensemen, but how different is this team if you sub out Muzzin for Marino?

You get more mobile, less physical, balance the RHD and LHD getting Sandin in the lineup, 1 mill in cap space and Holl becomes even more expendable as well.

Seems like something worth at least exploring.

Marino also makes it easier to move on from Brodie in 2 years where we could possibly have a spot for Niemela.

 

[Americanadian]

They have some on money puck I believe

I'm looking at it now - they appear to have all the data to gather GSVA but not the direct values.

 

[SprDaVE]

I know they are different kinds of defensive defensemen, but how different is this team if you sub out Muzzin for Marino?

You get more mobile, less physical, balance the RHD and LHD getting Sandin in the lineup, 1 mill in cap space and Holl becomes even more expendable as well.

Seems like something worth at least exploring.

I think you're messing with chemistry even more when you don't really need to. The Leafs can add without having to remove Muzzin. It is worth exploring, I just don't think it's something done this off-season.

I might be wrong though.

I do think someone like Marino fits what the Leafs need in their mid-pair. He'd be a good upgrade on Holl I think.

 

[rocketman588]

I'm looking at it now - they appear to have all the data to gather GSVA but not the direct values.

Interesting

I think you're messing with chemistry even more when you don't really need to. The Leafs can add without having to remove Muzzin. It is worth exploring, I just don't think it's something done this off-season.

I might be wrong though.

I do think someone like Marino fits what the Leafs need in their mid-pair. He'd be a good upgrade on Holl I think.

It's hard to replace him at our cap space

 

[BertCorbeau]

Canucks are holding their price high on Miller but no one is biting, and they're asking more about Garland.

Either would be a good fit on the second line. Wonder if Dubas is in on it.

The Canucks are also over the cap already and need to move some salary...

If you could get Miller for Kerfoot + B prospect + 2023 1st - would you do it?

 

[zeke]

My apologies for missing that:
Forwards/Defence
FQoC: 0.3/0.9
DQoC: 0.2/0.6
FQoT: 0.1/0.05
DQoT: 0.1/0.15


I expect Bunting to regress downwards. As I said, 50% might be extreme but being in the 93rd percentile among forward GAR (or 45th as projected) is reasonable in my opinion. Expecting Matthews to regress 6% and still be have the highest GAR in the league also doesn't seem unreasonable in my opinion.

I cobbled together the most recent GSVA values available for you:

Note: he was playing around with his goalie calculations significantky prior to the playoffs and those are only regular season values for both the Leafs goalies and the other teams' backups.

 

[GoodNewfieBoy]

Dubas is far too loyal to his players to trade Muzzin in order to sign a different player.

Dubas is the Ned Stark of GMs. Honourable to a fault and will lose his head because of it

 

[Trapper]

I feel like Ottawa might be accelerating a little too fast. Feels like Jersey when they added Hamilton.

Time will tell.
Many say the same here with Tavares.

 

[Americanadian]

I know they are different kinds of defensive defensemen, but how different is this team if you sub out Muzzin for Marino?

You get more mobile, less physical, balance the RHD and LHD getting Sandin in the lineup, 1 mill in cap space and Holl becomes even more expendable as well.

Seems like something worth at least exploring.

I like the idea of Muzzin for Marino in a vacuum for asset management purposes but where does Muzzin go? LA was the most logical destination and they are capped out now. Maybe he waives for Anaheim because they're close to LA but I doubt it. I can't see any team outside of Anaheim that either he would waive for or that can afford him.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I feel like Ottawa might be accelerating a little too fast. Feels like Jersey when they added Hamilton.

Seems to me that there is going to be an ownership change, maybe selling the team. And an easier way to do so is if the team is winning, so they invest in some of these bigger names.

I mean their goalies are Talbot and Forsberg .. hardly world beaters. Their d-core is:

Chabot-Zub
Sanderson-Zaitsev
Holden-Hamonic
Brannstrom

Some nice pieces but still a weak back end. Unless Sanderson comes in and makes an impact right away.

Depth will catch up to them over the season but they'll be harder to beat for sure. Maybe they could contend with Boston for #4th OA in the division if everything goes right.

 

[Gabriel426]

Dubas is the Ned Stark of GMs. Honourable to a fault and will lose his head because of it

More like one of the Bartheon brothers, the one who thought he should be King after his brother died(replacing Lou), also thought the witch will help him conquer all Kingdoms(thinking outside of the box), then had to scarifice his daughter as a last desperate attempt to win(Murray trade). Lol

 

[Buds17]

Canucks are holding their price high on Miller but no one is biting, and they're asking more about Garland.

Either would be a good fit on the second line. Wonder if Dubas is in on it.

The Canucks are also over the cap already and need to move some salary...

If you could get Miller for Kerfoot + B prospect + 2023 1st - would you do it?

I'm thinking "yes" from a Leaf perspective. I envision Vancouver to want something more though (upgrade in prospect?).

 

[BertCorbeau]

Really quiet day 2 in UFA.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I'm thinking yes from a Leaf perspective. I envision Vancouver to want something more though (upgrade in prospect?).

Oh they would, they're asking a lot for him .. but if that lingers and teams move on, Vancouver might just take whatever they can get and they need to move salary.

 

[LeafSteel]

TJ Miller
Z.A.R.
Weegar or Marino

...... right after I flap my arms real fast and fly to the moon.

......... and I would lose my mind.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I'd say he's Ser Dontos.

 

[Americanadian]

I cobbled together the most recent GSVA values available for you:


View attachment 569316


View attachment 569317


Note: he was playing around with his goalie calculations significantky prior to the playoffs and those are only regular season values for both the Leafs goalies and the other teams' backups.

I appreciate you putting this together. Doesn't this prove the point where we started?

It will be a cakewalk, and right now the Leafs are the safest bet to finish 1ST in the Atlantic.

If you count 12F/6D/2G (no Sandin, Carlsson, Bogosian) you have 1. FLA - 36, 2. TOR - 33.4, 3. TBL - 30.5. Hardly a runaway for TOR. Even if you include Sandin/Carlsson/Bogosian they aren't favorites.

 

[Kurtz]

More like one of the Bartheon brothers, the one who thought he should be King after his brother died(replacing Lou), also thought the witch will help him conquer all Kingdoms(thinking outside of the box), then had to scarifice his daughter as a last desperate attempt to win(Murray trade). Lol

Nah, Stannis had tons of battle experience and steadfast convictions. More like Lou.

Dubas is more of a summer child, charismatic but lacking in experience and ability, like Renly Baratheon.