GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[ER89]

I feel like Ottawa might be accelerating a little too fast. Feels like Jersey when they added Hamilton.

I don't know they seem solid and haven't made any silly moves yet. Dubas better figure it out

 

[Americanadian]

unfortunately no complete ones. if you have an athletic subsciption you can see last year's last available active-roster player cards on their site. I'm sure they'll update soon enough.

I use the Athletic team pages mid season but EH in the off season for roster builders. Looking at what appears to be the last explanation of GSVA it also doesn't factor QOC/QOT.

Goals: 0.75
Primary Assists: 0.7
Secondary Assists: 0.55
Shots: 0.075
Penalty Differential: 0.15
Faceoff Differential: 0.01
F xGF: 0.625
F GF: 0.625
F xGA: 1.75
F GA: 0.4375
D xGF: 1.7
D GF: 0.425
D xGA: 2.3
D GA: 0.575

 

[Stephen]

I don't know they seem solid and haven't made any silly moves yet. Dubas better figure it out

It’s not the silliness of it more like the sudden influx of a lot of impact guys on a kids crew. Chemistry changes, new additions may not live up to expectations, etc. Happens all the time that teams winning the offseason often don’t perform as expected.

 

[Burnie97]

What if they sign Klingberg out of the Blue


Is he really that physical? Or is he a Justin Holl type?

Genuinely don't know hence why I'm asking

He probably isn't quite as physical funny enough but he's younger and moves the puck well and puts up points at a decent pace. He has room to grow forsure. Holl is what he is. Some people like him but I'm not a big fan but not a lot of options out there either.

I think Marino is a better fit with the group. He still blocks shots too and he doesn't give the puck away anywhere near what Holl does.

 

[Americanadian]

Bunting well above the xwar, Matthews well below. even steven.

And do you really want to regress Bunting back to what he did away from Matthews and Marner anyways?

EH has Bunting projected as the 43rd best forward instead of the 5th which I don't think is unreasonable.

 

[ER89]

It’s not the silliness of it more like the sudden influx of a lot of impact guys on a kids crew. Chemistry changes, new additions may not live up to expectations, etc. Happens all the time that teams winning the offseason often don’t perform as expected.

I hear ya. But what i like is not allowing that core to grow in a losing environment. I think that'll be more important personally.

 

[zeke]

I use the Athletic team pages mid season but EH in the off season for roster builders. Looking at what appears to be the last explanation of GSVA it also doesn't factor QOC/QOT.

Goals: 0.75
Primary Assists: 0.7
Secondary Assists: 0.55
Shots: 0.075
Penalty Differential: 0.15
Faceoff Differential: 0.01
F xGF: 0.625
F GF: 0.625
F xGA: 1.75
F GA: 0.4375
D xGF: 1.7
D GF: 0.425
D xGA: 2.3
D GA: 0.575

From that link:

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Ducks need a solid top 4 LD to pair with Drysdale. Muzzin would be a very good add and with only two years left carries minimal risk.

Muzzin to the ducks for 2023 2nd (Colorado) .

 

[TMLAM34]

I wouldn’t mind Klingberg at a reasonable cost/term.

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Klingberg
Giordano - Liljegren

Then use Sandin as a trade chip to acquire some better depth upfront. Maybe a Sandin for Hayton type deal.

 

[ER89]

Ducks need a solid top 4 LD to pair with Drysdale. Muzzin would be a very good add and with only two years left carries minimal risk.

Muzzin to the ducks for 2023 2nd (Colorado) .

I think we could get more considering what chiarot just got

 

[as Pure as Evil]

if pld gets moved to montreal i hope we start simmonds every game against so he never leaves the bench. the guy has a few receipts waiting for him from this team but spent half a game on the bench cause he was scared, pretty sure he missed the rematch too

 

[dubplatepressure]

I think we could get more considering what chiarot just got

yeah that depends - Dubas doesn't seem to be doing very well trade-wise but he's made up for it with his FA signings.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

I think we could get more considering what chiarot just got

More is fine with me I just think moving muzzin to Anaheim for a fair return in picks is an idea the team should pursue.

 

[facelessjoe1990]

Ducks need a solid top 4 LD to pair with Drysdale. Muzzin would be a very good add and with only two years left carries minimal risk.

Muzzin to the ducks for 2023 2nd (Colorado) .

That's not enough. I like Muzzin to LA for Matt Roy/Clarke and 2nd.

 

[Antropovsky]

Dubas is far too loyal to his players to trade Muzzin in order to sign a different player.

 

[zeke]

EH has Bunting projected as the 43rd best forward instead of the 5th which I don't think is unreasonable.

Well we both know those numbers don't actually mean "best", and that complementary players will get their value boosted in the right circumstance. The important part to note about Bunting is that his xgar was amazing even in a 3rd line role in Arizona.

I guess the question is this - are you projecting a significant decline from that line in either production or expected goal share? Even while noting that their multi-year xgar supports that level?

I understand why a model automatically regresses the elite performances but that doesn't mean it's actually likely.

 

[kb]

Dubas is far too loyal to his players to trade Muzzin in order to sign a different player.

And more to the point, trading Muzzin just means they have to go find another Muzzin type to replace him anyway. Deck chairs....

 

[Brobust]

Kerfoot + Niemela for John Marino + late pick

Holl for at least a 3rd

Is this decent/realistic?

Also, Muzzin is at the FPC pumping up kids as they chant 'Go Leafs Go'.

He's not going anywhere.

 

[MarMarSab3]

Ducks need a solid top 4 LD to pair with Drysdale. Muzzin would be a very good add and with only two years left carries minimal risk.

Muzzin to the ducks for 2023 2nd (Colorado) .

I'm ok with this, would try for another pick perhaps a 4th but if not then so be it

 

[kb]

Well we both know those numbers don't actually mean "best", and that complementary players will get their value boosted in the right circumstance. The important part to note about Bunting is that his xgar was amazing even in a 3rd line role in Arizona.

I guess the question is this - are you projecting a significant decline from that line in either production or expected goal share? Even while noting that their multi-year xgar supports that level?

I understand why a model automatically regresses the elite performances but that doesn't mean it's actually likely.

Correct me if I am wrong, but with this model, doesn't it clearly penalize players on the upswing of their careers (like most of the young and improving Leaf players), and clearly boost players on the downsides of their careers?

Seems like that is why TB grades out higher (and Bruins grade out too high) even though the Leafs finished ahead of TB last season, and TB has since lost Palat and McDonagh. That to me makes little sense.

 

[Burnie97]

Kerfoot + Niemela for John Marino + late pick

Holl for at least a 3rd

Is this decent/realistic?

I wouldn't give up Niemela.

Maybe like a kokkonen type with Kerfoot and the 3rd rounder we just got. Then flip Holl for at least a 3rd. Maybe get lucky and get more.

One can dream.

 

[SprDaVE]

The Leafs strength right now is there defensive quality and depth. Not sure why anyone would want to really lower it just for the sake of signing a mid level forward.

Maybe next off-season that changes but for now, the Leafs shouldn't be removing someone like Muzzin for a draft pick or lateral move.

 

[Americanadian]

From that link:

View attachment 569289

My apologies for missing that:
Forwards/Defence
FQoC: 0.3/0.9
DQoC: 0.2/0.6
FQoT: 0.1/0.05
DQoT: 0.1/0.15

Well we both know those numbers don't actually mean "best", and that complementary players will get their value boosted in the right circumstance. The important part to note about Bunting is that his xgar was amazing even in a 3rd line role in Arizona.

I guess the question is this - are you projecting a significant decline from that line in either production or expected goal share? Even while noting that their multi-year xgar supports that level?

I expect Bunting to regress downwards. As I said, 50% might be extreme but being in the 93rd percentile among forward GAR (or 45th as projected) is reasonable in my opinion. Expecting Matthews to regress 6% and still be have the highest GAR in the league also doesn't seem unreasonable in my opinion.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

humm but yet they went further in the play offs

In an absolute crap conference, yes

 

[Brobust]

The Leafs strength right now is there defensive quality and depth. Not sure why anyone would want to really lower it just for the sake of signing a mid level forward.

Maybe next off-season that changes but for now, the Leafs shouldn't be removing someone like Muzzin for a draft pick or lateral move.

People are worried about losing Sandin over Muzzin. Which is understandable.