GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[Americanadian]

I'm not a fan of gar either way, but there's no reason to believe in that kind of drop even if I was.

Looking a bit deeper: Matthews put up the 2nd best season in the last 10 years in GAR value, Bunting the 11th, Marner the 43rd. They are all expected to regress. Matthews by 2 GAR, Bunting by 13, Marner by 2. That's 17 GAR or 3 WAR before analyzing anyone else on the roster.

 

[TMLAM34]

Stastny, Tierney, Strome, Aston-Reese, Milano, Stepan, and Motte. Some decent names still remaining for the bottom six.

 

[Apex Predator]

Stastny, Tierney, Strome, Aston-Reese, Milano, Stepan, and Motte. Some decent names still remaining for the bottom six.

Leafs should be able to get one of these players on the cheap. Just need to wait it out.

 

[Mess]

Robertsons audition as a 2nd line LW was good. It didn't produce but he didn't look out of place either. I think a big off-season and he could come into training camp looking really good. He just needs to stay healthy.

People are sleeping on him and being able to take the next step. There is a bit of a risk that he looks out of place but there is also a lot of upside there.

Leafs need to give him a shot, or start looking at maybe trading him soon while his prospect value is high. They can't just block his path or play him lower line minutes and expect great production.

Excitement and optimism was very high for Roberston coming out of the OHL in 2020 coming off a 55 goal season in 46 games.

Leafs even inserted him into the playoff roster against CBJ for 4 of the 5 games were he record 1-0-1 point.

Since then 2 whole seasons and 2 more playoff years have passed against MON and TB and over the course of those season Robertson has contributed 1 goal 1 assist in reg season and appeared in Zero playoff games.

Agreed, Leafs need to give him a shot, but more out of necessity having only Bunting, Engvall (RFA) and Simmonds the only 3 LWs currently on the roster. You couldn't argue with a mere 2 NHL points the past 2 years he is a player knocking on the door and Leafs need to make room for. He has also missed significant time to injury which has hindered his development.

I wouldn't be surprised if he were included in a deal this offseason to address areas of need with a greater certainty of return either NHL experience or proven track record. IMO

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I don't know what kind of player your getting to replace Kerfoot for less than 3.5 that will put up 50 points, play center, and PK.

Any examples of guys we can get?

Clifford doesn't have to be on the roster, but we need some toughness presence for the dog days.

I don't think the idea is getting one guy, nor to necessarily replace Kerfoot directly, more than to find a different mix (and to maximize value on Kerfoot).

If we are looking at 2 guys, one will be a center and one will likely be a 2LW or a 4LW.

Getting the right mix is tough. I think ideally, the center can both PK and PP. Both units need a guy who can take draws. Steel does not have a ton of experience as a PKer, but I can see him being the best fit in that regard. Jarnkrok is solid too, but he may be costly. Tierney would also be solid, but I'd rather take a chance on a younger version of him with more upside in Steel if I had the choice. Strome and Rask do not seem like fits for PK, so let's eliminate them out of contention for that spot.

At 2LW, we mostly just need a guy who can play with Nylander and Tavares. I wouldn't trust Heinen on either special teams (which may actually be fine since we have guys like Marner who can do both) but at ES with Nylander and Tavares, he may end up being the best fit. Alternatively, if Strome was willing to buy in, he too would be a very interesting fit for that line. Added bonus, he can win draws and PP, so that means you would only need to find a center who can PK for that open center spot.

 

[Brobust]

Just searched NAK on YouTube and its like fight, fight, fight, hat trick etc.

We might like him.

 

[Jozay]

I don't think the idea is getting one guy, nor to necessarily replace Kerfoot directly, more than to find a different mix (and to maximize value on Kerfoot).

If we are looking at 2 guys, one will be a center and one will likely be a 2LW or a 4LW.

Getting the right mix is tough. I think ideally, the center can both PK and PP. Both units need a guy who can take draws. Steel does not have a ton of experience as a PKer, but I can see him being the best fit in that regard. Jarnkrok is solid too, but he may be costly. Tierney would also be solid, but I'd rather take a chance on a younger version of him with more upside in Steel if I had the choice. Strome and Rask do not seem like fits for PK, so let's eliminate them out of contention for that spot.

At 2LW, we mostly just need a guy who can play with Nylander and Tavares. I wouldn't trust Heinen on either special teams (which may actually be fine since we have guys like Marner who can do both) but at ES with Nylander and Tavares, he may end up being the best fit. Alternatively, if Strome was willing to buy in, he too would be a very interesting fit for that line. Added bonus, he can win draws and PP, so that means you would only need to find a center who can PK for that open center spot.

Nylander and Tavares should not be playing on the same line again.

 

[Makaveli]

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Robertson - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Kerfoot - ?????
????? - Kampf - NAK

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren
Giordano - Sandin

Murray/Samsonov


For that 3rd line wing we have some options, depending on how cheap they come. Heinen, Jarnkrok, Donato, Kessel
4th line wing ZAR would be ideal.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Wonder if Dubas is looking to trade Kerfoot/Holl first to open up a bit of cap space before signing his next UFA. Reason being leverage. Right now he doesn't have to trade them to fill out the roster, but if he signed another UFA that would hurt his ability to get a better return in a trade.

 

[BlueForever75]

Don't sleep on Gaudette? This could be an under the radar signing. The kids can skate and hit. Has size at 6"1.

I know he hasn't been the player some thought he would be, but has potential to be a winger in our system.

Maybe playing with some better skilled players like Matthews, Marner, Nylander or Tavares will up his game. He really wasnt given an opportunity to play with skilled players in Ottawa, Vancouver or Chicago. Always played a depth role on 3rd and 4th lines.

The Leafs turned players like Hyman, Micheyev and now Bunting into valuable players by utilizing their skills in the game they play. Maybe they can do the same for Gaudette!!!

Time will tell but I wouldnt sleep on him. Could see him playing in the top 6. Reminds me alot of Hyman

 

[X66]

Robertson coming through is an absolute god send for this team, I really hope he can take that next step.

We need another scoring winger that can bury the puck, he is that if things work out for him.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Nylander and Tavares should not be playing on the same line again.

They were excellent in the first half. Fell off in the second half before somewhat picking it up at the end.

The problem with that line is that it is too prone to Nylander's inconsistency. If Nylander is not clicking, then Tavares is left out on an island... Which is not much different with Matthews if Marner is being useless. Fortunately, even in the downswings, that line was still able to put up respectable point totals, but if we want that line to be PPG+, we can't have Nylander take 2 months off in the middle of the season.

The only difference with splitting them up is that maybe Nylander doesn't drag down someone as good as Tavares when he is inconsistent, and instead he drags down some bottom 6 offensive line instead (or he can dominate the weaker competition even if he is only at 50%). We will have the flexibility to switch things up if needed, but Nylander and Tavares should be put together. That is how you maximize their ice time.

 

[BlueForever75]

Robertson coming through is an absolute god send for this team, I really hope he can take that next step.

We need another scoring winger that can bury the puck, he is that if things work out for him.

Only way this happens is he needs to be given more than one or two games to succeed on the line. Let the kid play in all situations, it is the only way that he will learn.

I personally would play him Matthew and Marner on the left. Put Bunting with Tavares-Nylander.

 

[Field of Dreams]

Anyone hear about any interesting euro free agents available this summer?

 

[Americanadian]

I don't know what kind of player your getting to replace Kerfoot for less than 3.5m that will put up 50 points, play center, and PK.

Any examples of guys we can get?

Clifford doesn't have to be on the roster, but we need some toughness presence for the dog days of the regular season.

Rodrigues. He's projected to command 3M - he actually plays center and he plays well on the PK. He hasn't put up 50 points but he produced at well over a 50 point pace when he was in the top 6 before Pittsburgh got healthy and moved him down the lineup.

 

[zeke]

The projected difference between Florida and Toronto is goaltending. The point about Murray/Samsonov being able to match the .900 team SV% from last year is valid. Florida's duo is projected to, and very likely will, outperform them. Again - not sure where your numbers come from that make you think Toronto's the unanimous favorite to win the Atlantic as previously stated.

well, over the last 3 years Bob (35) is at .906 and Knight (21) is at .909.

whereas Murray (28) is at .899 and Samsonov (25) is at .902.

So sure, they should have better goaltending. But I doubt it's by much.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Only way this happens is he needs to be given more than one or two games to succeed on the line. Let the kid play in all situations, it is the only way that he will learn.

I personally would play him Matthew and Marner on the left. Put Bunting with Tavares-Nylander.

Exactly. Leafs need to be patient and let him get a few games under his belt before banishing him to the AHL again. Too often this team loves to gives young guys a cup of coffee in the NHL only to send them back down. Need to give them more time to acclimate.

 

[Mess]

Wonder if Dubas is looking to trade Kerfoot/Holl first to open up a bit of cap space before signing his next UFA. Reason being leverage. Right now he doesn't have to trade them to fill out the roster, but if he signed another UFA that would hurt his ability to get a better return in a trade.

Keep in mind Leafs still have Engvall and Sandin as qualified but unsigned RFAs and the current free cap space approx $2.0 mil wouldn't even cover their contracts without putting the Leafs into the red.

I fully agree if the Leafs went out and signed a $2-3 mil UFA (using the offseason +10% extra cap slush fund) now to fill that 2nd line LW spot, before trading Kerfoot then that would put the Leafs into a very poor bargaining/trade position because everyone would know Leafs need to dump him to become cap compliant again. You would get .60 cents on the dollar in return without leverage.

I would certainly be doing as you suggest and make a trade 1st and then sign or acquire another player(s) for the Kerfoot $3.5 mil recaptured space.

 

[zeke]

Looking a bit deeper: Matthews put up the 2nd best season in the last 10 years in GAR value, Bunting the 11th, Marner the 43rd. They are all expected to regress. Matthews by 2 GAR, Bunting by 13, Marner by 2. That's 17 GAR or 3 WAR before analyzing anyone else on the roster.

Exactly why that ranking doesn't make sense.

 

[Bloomberg]

I'd sign Dylan Strome and play him with Marner. They played in the world juniors together.. Matthews needs to be able to carry his own line.

LW(Kuokannen?) - Matthews - RW (Niederreiter?)
Bunting - Strome - Marner
Jeannot - Tavares - RW (Tomasino?)
Engvall - Kampf - Kubel

Trade Nylander to Columbus for Peeke, Jiricek, Roslovic

Trade Kerfoot and Holl, Roslovic to Nashville for Tomasino, Jeannot and picks

 

[Americanadian]

Only way this happens is he needs to be given more than one or two games to succeed on the line. Let the kid play in all situations, it is the only way that he will learn.

I personally would play him Matthew and Marner on the left. Put Bunting with Tavares-Nylander.

In a perfect world you find 2 wingers for Tavares and run a 3rd line of Robertson-X-Nylander where X is a puck retriever.

Exactly why that ranking doesn't make sense.

Care to elaborate?

 

[zeke]

What are your gripes with GAR?

I love e-h's layout and the different way i can sort the raw analytics.

But the way they've tried to turn those raw stats into war-type metrics has never really worked, mostly because they refuse to consider qoc and usage.

 

[Bellefour20]

Wonder if Dubas is looking to trade Kerfoot/Holl first to open up a bit of cap space before signing his next UFA. Reason being leverage. Right now he doesn't have to trade them to fill out the roster, but if he signed another UFA that would hurt his ability to get a better return in a trade.

Canucks are looking for D and Kerfoot is a local.

 

[stickty111]

Dubas did say trades will be a part of additions to, so I think what they will do is get another 4th liner/bottom 6 forward through FA, and probsbly RHD and a middle 6 addition through trade. Not too mention Dubas straightup said he prefers Sandin on the left so that opens the door for a Muzzin trade. There is will work to be done and IMO a decent amount

 

[zeke]

It's because he prefers stats that make dubas look good

GAR makes dubas look amazing, for the record.