GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[BayStBullies]

well, over the last 3 years Bob (35) is at .906 and Knight (21) is at .909.

whereas Murray (28) is at .899 and Samsonov (25) is at .902.

So sure, they should have better goaltending. But I doubt it's by much.

You're working with such a small sample size. Murray had an anomaly in the last two games, where 13 goals were scored. There was nothing on the line and a bad team gave up on him worse than normal. Things are drastically different if you drop those 2 games. Again, small sample size on a very bad team.

 

[Americanadian]

I love e-h's layout and the different way i can sort the raw analytics.

But the way they've tried to turn those raw stats into war-type metrics has never really worked, mostly because they refuse to consider qoc and usage.

Do you have a preferred WAR?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Don't sleep on Gaudette? This could be an under the radar signing. The kids can skate and hit. Has size at 6"1.

I know he hasn't been the player some thought he would be, but has potential to be a winger in our system.

Maybe playing with some better skilled players like Matthews, Marner, Nylander or Tavares will up his game. He really wasnt given an opportunity to play with skilled players in Ottawa, Vancouver or Chicago. Always played a depth role on 3rd and 4th lines.

The Leafs turned players like Hyman, Micheyev and now Bunting into valuable players by utilizing their skills in the game they play. Maybe they can do the same for Gaudette!!!

Time will tell but I wouldnt sleep on him. Could see him playing in the top 6. Reminds me alot of Hyman

He threw some hits with Ottawa but he is not exactly a guy I would call a "hitter", and he is not a particularly great skater either.

He is an offensive guy. Nice shot. Solid playmaker. Knows where to go and what to do to score. You never know, but I am just hoping he can be another Seney or Petan with a little bit more upside as an NHL call up.

 

[Burnie97]

Have fun over there... yikes

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Have fun over there... yikes

This was reported like 2 months ago.

No idea why he is reporting it now.

 

[aingefan]

Could you get Heinen and Tierney for Kerfoot’s money plus whatever min salary goes in the other slot?
4.5-4.75?

 

[Americanadian]

I love e-h's layout and the different way i can sort the raw analytics.

But the way they've tried to turn those raw stats into war-type metrics has never really worked, mostly because they refuse to consider qoc and usage.

I plugged the same rosters into JFresh's roster builder using WAR from top-down hockey and the Leafs are still 3rd in the Atlantic. The point totals were higher - 1. TBL - 113, 2. FLA - 108, 3. TOR - 105.

 

[OVO16]

ZAR should be a target for sure. Really hope we get him.

ALso, can Curtis Douglas actually play? Does he really have a chance of making the team? Would be great if he can

 

[aingefan]

Robertsons audition as a 2nd line LW was good. It didn't produce but he didn't look out of place either. I think a big off-season and he could come into training camp looking really good. He just needs to stay healthy.

People are sleeping on him and being able to take the next step. There is a bit of a risk that he looks out of place but there is also a lot of upside there.

Leafs need to give him a shot, or start looking at maybe trading him soon while his prospect value is high. They can't just block his path or play him lower line minutes and expect great production.

I dont disagree, but I also don’t mind him on a lower offence and energy line.

 

[X66]

Only way this happens is he needs to be given more than one or two games to succeed on the line. Let the kid play in all situations, it is the only way that he will learn.

I personally would play him Matthew and Marner on the left. Put Bunting with Tavares-Nylander.

He also needs to stay healthy, that's on him.

 

[Burnie97]

This was reported like 2 months ago.

No idea why he is reporting it now.

I never heard. Guess it wasn't official until now.

 

[zeke]

In a perfect world you find 2 wingers for Tavares and run a 3rd line of Robertson-X-Nylander where X is a puck retriever.


Care to elaborate?

Last 2yrs

Matthews .292xwar60
Marner .136xwar60
Bunting .125xwar60

Total .553xwar60

Last year

Matthews .223war60
Marner .155war60
Bunting .220war60

Total .598war60


Their war last year was basically in line with their multi-year xwar, and it being slightly better is more than explained by these all being young players just entering their primes AND playing together for the first time full time.

 

[BlueForever75]

He also needs to stay healthy, that's on him.

Didnt get hurt last season when given a shot in the last quarter and playoffs. He just wasnt played with consistency.

 

[OVO16]

Also don't know who fits the Physical RD component that Dubas wants. I dont see anyone out there thats available and fits the criteria

Only name i can think of is PK Subban.

Schenn (Unavailable I think)
Bortuzzo (Unavailable)
Hankanpaa (Unavailable)
Gubrandson (Gone and overpaid)

Am I missing anyone?

 

[zeke]

You're working with such a small sample size. Murray had an anomaly in the last two games, where 13 goals were scored. There was nothing on the line and a bad team gave up on him worse than normal. Things are drastically different if you drop those 2 games. Again, small sample size on a very bad team.

those are all 3 year samples.

Do you have a preferred WAR?

I like GSVA.

 

[Sypher04]

Kane at 50% for 2RW. Play him with Tavares and Nylander moves to the left.

A man can dream

 

[jaric1862]

Stastny first and foremost. Motte or Zach Aston-Reese if they miss out on him

 

[Americanadian]

Last 2yrs

Matthews .292xwar60
Marner .136xwar60
Bunting .125xwar60

Total .553xwar60

Last year

Matthews .223war60
Marner .155war60
Bunting .220war60

Total .598war60


Their war last year was basically in line with their multi-year xwar, and it being slightly better is more than explained by these all being young players just entering their primes AND playing together for the first time full time.

I will accept that with Matthews and Marner but Bunting's xWAR was 43% lower. As I said - the projection for Matthews and Marner was a roughly 2 GAR drop when you normalize for total GAR per season (Projected GAR/(SUM(Projected GAR)/SUM(2021-2022 GAR)). A 2 GAR drop is about 10% for Marner and 6% for Matthews. Bunting is where the real regression happens with his projected GAR being 12.7 (normalized) instead of 25.6.

I like GSVA.

Are those tables public? If so I will make a roster builder out of it.

 

[SprDaVE]

Might be Weegar related?

 

[Burnie97]

Also don't know who fits the Physical RD component that Dubas wants. I dont see anyone out there thats available and fits the criteria

Only name i can think of is PK Subban.

Schenn (Unavailable I think)
Bortuzzo (Unavailable)
Hankanpaa (Unavailable)
Gubrandson (Gone and overpaid)

Am I missing anyone?

I was saying Marino off Pitts earlier. He's available in a trade. Think you'd have to at least kick tires.

 

[OVO16]

Might be Weegar related?

What if they sign Klingberg out of the Blue

I was saying Marino off Pitts earlier. He's available in a trade. Think you'd have to at least kick tires.

Is he really that physical? Or is he a Justin Holl type?

Genuinely don't know hence why I'm asking

 

[hamzarocks]

Might be Weegar related?

They're also apparently in on Chychuran

I think the sens overpay the crap for Chychuran

Like Greig + another B+ prospect + 2 1sts type overpay

Chychuran is no doubt a quality player but think some team will overpay for him due to his athletic build, goal totals and cheap deal

 

[Stephen]

Also don't know who fits the Physical RD component that Dubas wants. I dont see anyone out there thats available and fits the criteria

Only name i can think of is PK Subban.

Schenn (Unavailable I think)
Bortuzzo (Unavailable)
Hankanpaa (Unavailable)
Gubrandson (Gone and overpaid)

Am I missing anyone?

I would keep tabs on Hakanpaa and see what happens with Dallas. I doubt Schenn would want to return to Toronto.

 

[Stephen]

They're also apparently in on Chychuran

I think the sens overpay the crap for Chychuran

Like Greig + another B+ prospect + 2 1sts type overpay

Chychuran is no doubt a quality player but think some team will overpay for him due to his athletic build, goal totals and cheap deal

I feel like Ottawa might be accelerating a little too fast. Feels like Jersey when they added Hamilton.

 

[zeke]

I will accept that with Matthews and Marner but Bunting's xWAR was 43% lower. As I said - the projection for Matthews and Marner was a roughly 2 GAR drop when you normalize for total GAR per season (Projected GAR/(SUM(Projected GAR)/SUM(2021-2022 GAR)). A 2 GAR drop is about 10% for Marner and 6% for Matthews. Bunting is where the real regression happens with his projected GAR being 12.7 (normalized) instead of 25.6.

Bunting well above the xwar, Matthews well below. even steven.

And do you really want to regress Bunting back to what he did away from Matthews and Marner anyways?

Are those tables public? If so I will make a roster builder out of it.

unfortunately no complete ones. if you have an athletic subsciption you can see last year's last available active-roster player cards on their site. I'm sure they'll update soon enough.