Fire Shanahan/Dubas (Yay or Nay)

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I’m with you in theory, but the specific players are very important. With the right trade and right mix of talent it could work...

... my problem with this is the guy making the decisions. Most of his trades have made little sense philosophically for a team trying to win in the playoffs.

I don’t have much confidence in Kyle Dubas to trade Marner for a lesser collection of players that make more of an impact on winning when it matters.

Maybe the ownership group told him he CAN'T trade any of the core 4 because they don't trust his judgement. I know I don't. They cannot possibly be thinking that Shanny is as smart as he made himself sound after the floundering we have been doing. He let Lou walk to put in his pet pupil...do they still buy the beans he is selling? hard to say...my guess is no and they are going to have to go with their original plan of keeping 4 highly paid forwards until it fails and then they bring in a whole new crew.

 

[Trapper]

I could understand keeping the core intact if they showed heart, fight, constant improvement, desire to win/hate losing, stood up for eachother etc.
This core does none of that and folds every time. No fight, and unwilling to put the effort in. Doesn't matter who the supporting cast is.
They quit on Babcock and don't seem to play harder for Keefe.

A lot of us aren’t even saying trash the core.
I don’t think we are.
We are talking about 1 player, one double digit salary in itself for change.
Change to build a more balanced team top to bottom with the Kadri/Brown/Komarov/Kapanen depth we used to have.

With more intensity and battle. But balance. Improved 3rd line of actual quality, etc.

 

[ToneDog]

I think he will make a pretty big move.
I support a big move but I will reserve judgement on the quality of that move.
I don't hear anyone saying they favor standing pat If he tinkers and fails, he will be gone next year.

For the record, a big move does not have to include Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander though it might, despite what Dubas & Shanny said publicly.

IMO, there is an excellent chance that the cap moves up 2MM after next year in addition to 1.2MM from the Kessel salary, thereby mitigating in part some of the strain of signing Rielly & Campbell (if they are part of the plan)

If there is a "big" move it will be Rielly IMO. We need a true #1 dman that can QB the PP and if we get one, one of our dmen will need to go to make room.

 

[justashadowof]

it would definitely make it more palatable, but I truly believe having half your cap devoted to 4 players is a unsuccessful strategy.

It's obvious by now. For so many reasons too:
- The only veteran options are vets at the end who are doing you a favour working for peanuts or you're doing a favour by employing them. Either way, how much can you really expect from these players?
- If by luck some young player comes in and Braydan Point's the hell out of things, you're in deep s*** scrambling to keep the player.
- You're guaranteed to have to underpay a section of your cap allotment to make the cap restrictions whether it's goaltending or defense or the bottom 6 of the forwards.
- Cap manipulation is super difficult if and when a key element has to be supplemented at the end of the regular season. You have to overpay in compensation to have salary retained.
- Having underperforming elements on the roster is more likely the less you pay for those roster slots.
- The 4 players ARE essentially the team. If they don't like the coach or they don't the GM, they can make them pay. Good luck using tough love on your star players.

 

[Aus34Matt]

Haven't heard a peep out of Tannenbaum or MLSE supporting this Management team - I think /hope change is being considered .

It's difficult to address the mistake of choosing an unproven GM over more qualified personnel to run your club.

 

[Trapper]

His expected xGF and xGA in his spreadsheet particularly need adjusting, because for some reason in reality on the ice the opposition with far weaker expected goals for and against keep coming out ahead in the win column.

Probably needs to realize and factor in playoff hockey (harder hitting, tighter checking, lower scoring) is not the same free wheeling stats padding that happens during the regular season. Case in point whatever his spreadsheet says for Marner xGF in the regular season, should be adjusted and then multiplied by Zero in that cell, to better reflect accurately his playoff xGF and actual GF.

Probably should have taken that into account when handing him his contract also, because 18 straight scoreless games over 3 playoff years probably should come in a little lower than $10.9 mil AAV. To be fair to Dubas, I tend to put more value on a players playoff contribution then his stats padding regular season.

So I wouldn't of handed out that big contract until they earned it with playoff success and contribution first and then paid for performance and not the other way around like Dubas seems to believe is the best way to handle this. When players are returning Conn Smythe and Stanley Cups they have both proven it and earned it thereafter and nobody question your value to the team. Paying 1st and then hoping for success seems to be this new wave GMing Dubas is trying out in Toronto.

Then I look at a team like Tampa Bay GM, where they have a similar player to Marner comparable in Brayden Point .. They give him a 3 year bridge deal $6.75 mil and he is an RFA at the end. In his first year of the contract he puts up 23 games 14 goals 19 assists 33 points and hoist the Stanley Cup with his teammates. In his 2nd playoff year he has 7 goals and 10 points in 10 games as his team is about to reach the final 4, on their way to potentially another Cup win. So when Point comes up his GM in another year and half and says I want the Marner contract what is the GM going to say NO?

We had a discussion before of how things might look if Marner had received the Point bridge contract. Last year of a 6 million bridge. Think about that.
A complete 3rd line. Quality.
How would it be and would people pay 11 million on this new one?

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

His expected xGF and xGA in his spreadsheet particularly need adjusting, because for some reason in reality on the ice the opposition with far weaker expected goals for and against keep coming out ahead in the win column.

Probably needs to realize and factor in playoff hockey (harder hitting, tighter checking, lower scoring) is not the same free wheeling stats padding that happens during the regular season. Case in point whatever his spreadsheet says for Marner xGF in the regular season, should be adjusted and then multiplied by Zero in that cell, to better reflect accurately his playoff xGF and actual GF.

Probably should have taken that into account when handing him his contract also, because 18 straight scoreless games over 3 playoff years probably should come in a little lower than $10.9 mil AAV. To be fair to Dubas, I tend to put more value on a players playoff contribution then his stats padding regular season.

So I wouldn't of handed out that big contract until they earned it with playoff success and contribution first and then paid for performance and not the other way around like Dubas seems to believe is the best way to handle this. When players are returning Conn Smythe and Stanley Cups they have both proven it and earned it thereafter and nobody question your value to the team. Paying 1st and then hoping for success seems to be this new wave GMing Dubas is trying out in Toronto.

Then I look at a team like Tampa Bay GM, where they have a similar player to Marner comparable in Brayden Point .. They give him a 3 year bridge deal $6.75 mil and he is an RFA at the end. In his first year of the contract he puts up 23 games 14 goals 19 assists 33 points and hoist the Stanley Cup with his teammates. In his 2nd playoff year he has 7 goals and 10 points in 10 games as his team is about to reach the final 4, on their way to potentially another Cup win. So when Point comes up his GM in another year and half and says I want the Marner contract what is the GM going to say NO?

If the GM has any brains he will say no. He will tell him one of the reasons he got to hoist the cup so early in his career is because Kucherov, Hedman and Stamkos all took less to win. You lay that at his feet and walk away. This sport is supposed to be about winning...not winning a big contract.

 

[Notsince67]

It’s tough to always weed it out on a faceless message board.

You have to get to know the genuine posters, what stage of life they are at and what kind of things they like.

Has Dubas done everything bad, no.
Did Lou do everything great, no.

Do I like the build, cap allocation and direction Dubas is taking us? Very much no.
Not my kind of team, or structure. Trouble is, I’m a Leaf fan so I’m stuck. And being stuck will probably look like a lot more negative than positive.
Change needs to happen IMO.

I believe that management goals (including the board) are to win. This team is beyond tanking so we know that some structure will stay in place. What is said publicly is often not what is said privately. Directionally, if I were on the board of directors, I would agree to not burn bridges publicly but demand I be kept appraised of all offers and opportunities in conjunction with a details swot matrix that supports the conclusion to move or not to move.

 

[ottomaddox]

The cap situation seems to be like this in reality:

Matthews 11.6 million = the salaries of 4 players ( 2 @ 4 million & 2 @ 2 million)

Tavares 11 million = the salaries of 3 players (2 @ 4 million & 1 @ 3 million)

Marner 10.9 million = the salaries of 3 players (2 @ 4 million & 1 @ 1.9 million)

Nylander 6.9 million = the salaries of 2 players (1 at 4 million & 1 @ 2.9 million).

The money Toronto is paying them they constitute a half a hockey team without defense or goaltending.

This will be Toronto's cross to bear for the foreseeable future.

If Matthews goes down in next year's playoffs Dubas will be hard pressed to replace the equivalent of 4 nhl players' salary.

The reality punched this team in the gut the moment Tavares went down in the first game.

Toronto will never have depth. You have to have freed up money for that.

 

[4thline]

This is what I ultimately expect and this is why I’m annoyed they don’t just accelerate the process. Let a new and more experienced eye assess what he has this year and go from there.

I don't think anyone in the org is ready to call it on AM/MM. In a way a "stay the course" year gives everyone in the organization a cleaner out moving forward.

 

[ShaneFalco]

A lot of us aren’t even saying trash the core.
I don’t think we are.
We are talking about 1 player, one double digit salary in itself for change.
Change to build a more balanced team top to bottom with the Kadri/Brown/Komarov/Kapanen depth we used to have.

With more intensity and battle. But balance. Improved 3rd line of actual quality, etc.

Yes true - I really only want Mitch moved at this point. I think you could work with the rest and the cap space it opens up.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

We had a discussion before of how things might look if Marner had received the Point bridge contract. Last year of a 6 million bridge. Think about that.
A complete 3rd line. Quality.
How would it be and would people pay 11 million on this new one?

The bridge contract is supposed to be a prove it kind of thing...when Dubas thought he was getting a steal in year 4 of the Marner deal...he didn't take into account the bad situation in years 1-3 crippling this team. Dubas doesn't believe in the earn it principle...maybe its too harsh for him...I don't know..but you can't be best friends with the players if you're a meanie and don't give in.

 

[rumman]

It's difficult to address the mistake of choosing an unproven GM over more qualified personnel to run your club.

Continuing with the experiment only compounds the problem....

 

[ToneDog]

We had a discussion before of how things might look if Marner had received the Point bridge contract. Last year of a 6 million bridge. Think about that.
A complete 3rd line. Quality.
How would it be and would people pay 11 million on this new one?

Many claimed if you bridge Marner, you will pay for it later. If he is up for renewal this summer, does he get more than what he got initially ? Bridge was the way to go. TB figured it out with Point and probably why they have a cup and are vying for a second.

On another note TB better not pull any Kutcherov sitting out a year and magically showing up in 100% game shape at playoff time. Total joke when we are sitting out players because every dollar counts and they add Kutch game 1 of the playoffs.

 

[justashadowof]

The cap situation seems to be like this in reality:

Matthews 11.6 million = the salaries of 4 players ( 2 @ 4 million & 2 @ 2 million)

Tavares 11 million = the salaries of 3 players (2 @ 4 million & 1 @ 3 million)

Marner 10.9 million = the salaries of 3 players (2 @ 4 million & 1 @ 1.9 million)

Nylander 6.9 million = the salaries of 2 players (1 at 4 million & 1 @ 2.9 million).

These number splits are even higher.

Take Tavares as an example: It's Tavares @ 11M PLUS 2 players @ $1M each replaced by 3 players (2 @ 5M & 1 @ 3M)

 

[sparxx87]

The bridge contract is supposed to be a prove it kind of thing...when Dubas thought he was getting a steal in year 4 of the Marner deal...he didn't take into account the bad situation in years 1-3 crippling this team. Dubas doesn't believe in the earn it principle...maybe its too harsh for him...I don't know..but you can't be best friends with the players if you're a meanie and don't give in.

This is a common characteristic of someone whose able to skip the line with nepotism. They don’t understand the journey to get to the upper levels like others.

 

[Trapper]

The cap situation seems to be like this in reality:

Matthews 11.6 million = the salaries of 4 players ( 2 @ 4 million & 2 @ 2 million)

Tavares 11 million = the salaries of 3 players (2 @ 4 million & 1 @ 3 million)

Marner 10.9 million = the salaries of 3 players (2 @ 4 million & 1 @ 1.9 million)

Nylander 6.9 million = the salaries of 2 players (1 at 4 million & 1 @ 2.9 million).

The money Toronto is paying them they constitute a half a hockey team without defense or goaltending.

This will be Toronto's cross to bear for the foreseeable future.

If Matthews goes down in next year's playoffs Dubas will be hard pressed to replace the equivalent of 4 nhl players' salary.

The reality punched this team in the gut the moment Tavares went down in the first game.

And add on top of that someone making double digits and not performing.
22 million can be like 4/5 guys not performing.
It’s not a feasible build.

 

[4thline]

We had a discussion before of how things might look if Marner had received the Point bridge contract. Last year of a 6 million bridge. Think about that.
A complete 3rd line. Quality.
How would it be and would people pay 11 million on this new one?

I think the issue was that 6-7x3 was never being signed by MM. He saw/sees himself as Matthews equal and as such had much higher bridge number.

He should have been traded or left to sign an OS

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I think I have a solution to the current salary cap woes of all the teams. Let them have 1 buyout and not count it against the cap. I am not talking about our team per se. I am saying if teams like Vancouver or whatever have a bad contract they can buy out with a cap hit...it makes it easier for teams to breathe. You might get a team that will trade you a bad contract to buy out for them if they have more than one...you can get assets for that and also might pick up a buy out guy that is useful at a cheap price going forward...just a thought.

 

[justashadowof]

Continuing with the experiment only compounds the problem....

 

[Trapper]

Many claimed if you bridge Marner, you will pay for it later. If he is up for renewal this summer, does he get more than what he got initially ? Bridge was the way to go. TB figured it out with Point and probably why they have a cup and are vying for a second.

On another note TB better not pull any Kutcherov sitting out a year and magically showing up in 100% game shape at playoff time. Total joke when we are sitting out players because every dollar counts and they add Kutch game 1 of the playoffs.

It was a perfect year. No fans COVID and the NHL didn’t really care about fans buying tickets for missing stars and marketing.
They just wanted hockey and wouldn’t even look into those things.

 

[sparxx87]

@usernamezrhardtodo
“Hard to rise and grind when you wake up in satin sheets.”

 

[ottomaddox]

These number splits are even higher.

Take Tavares as an example: It's Tavares @ 11M PLUS 2 players @ $1M each replaced by 3 players (2 @ 5M & 1 @ 3M)

It's sad and shocking.

4 players cannot play like half a hockey team.

 

[rumman]

Many claimed if you bridge Marner, you will pay for it later. If he is up for renewal this summer, does he get more than what he got initially ? Bridge was the way to go. TB figured it out with Point and probably why they have a cup and are vying for a second.

On another note TB better not pull any Kutcherov sitting out a year and magically showing up in 100% game shape at playoff time. Total joke when we are sitting out players because every dollar counts and they add Kutch game 1 of the playoffs.

Many here think they know what’s best, in hindsight bridging all 3 RFA’s would have been prudent, and probably what Lou would have done. I believe his reasoning would have been “want elite money, show us elite play.”

 

[Menzinger]

So weird how the last three Cup winning GMs were also so full of ego and inexperience to think they had a right to celebrate with the team they constructed.

There's a lot of legit criticisms of Dubas but stuff like this is just pathetic.

Yep. Its very fair to say Dubas' had opened himself to a number for very legit criticisms over the past while, critiquing him for celebrating a team championship is definitely just absurd though.

Anyone in a similar spot in any of the lower NHL levels would do the same. It's human nature.