Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VIII (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[BKGooner]

Newhook over Podkolzin in my opinion.

Agree totally. Let him marinate in college for a year or two then bring him to take meaningful minutes behind Zbad. Podkolzin needs to produce to justify a team's faith in him. Hoping that team is not the NYR.

 

[Mikos87]

Agree totally. Let him marinate in college for a year or two then bring him to take meaningful minutes behind Zbad. Podkolzin needs to produce to justify a team's faith in him. Hoping that team is not the NYR.

I honestly don't see the offense in Podkolzin that scouts are raving about. To me it's just a ton of group think. They have a Russian kid that oozes leadership and character that plays a very hard North American style of game, and is trusted in all situations.

Which, hey is great.... but that translates to a very safe and reliable 3rd line player. I see a 15 goal-20 assist player, who is excellent on the PK and goes up against top lines.

Kind of like Vlad Namestikov, but that you can win with.

 

[Mikos87]

I mean, if the top ten going into the tournament were some combination of:

Hughes
Kakko
Podkolzin
Cozens
Byram
Dach
Turcotte
Krebs
Zegras
Söderström

But Caufield, Newhook, Broberg, Boldy, and York all seem to be playing themselves up....

Then, who's falling?

Depends on the team... the two italicized guys are on my DnD list. Not seeing the offense translate, maybe they carve out very good 3rd line minutes

Some team is going to fall for Soderstrom. I don't think he's far above Nils Lundqvist. Haven't seem outside of U18s... and nothing about him says elite offense.

Dach could slide. Some guys I know think he's going to be 3 years away from being a top 6 forward... and have a prime of 5 peak years before the game fade by his skating ability.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Depends on the team... the two italicized guys are on my DnD list. Not seeing the offense translate, maybe they carve out very good 3rd line minutes

Some team is going to fall for Soderstrom. I don't think he's far above Nils Lundqvist. Haven't seem outside of U18s... and nothing about him says elite offense.

Dach could slide. Some guys I know think he's going to be 3 years away from being a top 6 forward... and have a prime of 5 peak years before the game fade by his skating ability.

Wait — who’d you italicize? Podkolzin and Dach? Soderstrom? We can’t tell in a quote...

 

[Mikos87]

Wait — who’d you italicize? Podkolzin and Dach? Soderstrom? We can’t tell in a quote...

Lol they're are italicized.

Podkolzin
Krebs
Soderstrom

 

[Ola]

I honestly don't see the offense in Podkolzin that scouts are raving about. To me it's just a ton of group think. They have a Russian kid that oozes leadership and character that plays a very hard North American style of game, and is trusted in all situations.

Which, hey is great.... but that translates to a very safe and reliable 3rd line player. I see a 15 goal-20 assist player, who is excellent on the PK and goes up against top lines.

Kind of like Vlad Namestikov, but that you can win with.

Could be, but he also has a really good shot and he is really good at keeping the puck within his team, and he got really really fast hands.

I wonder about his mentality. I sat right behind the Russian bench in the game against the Slovaks which was the first in the U18. First 30 minutes he looked like the perfect team player, chatted with the coach, talked with his teammates. Last 30 minutes — when he had created like 4-5 prime chances but not gotten any pts — he was really frustrated. That carried over for 2-3 more games, before he started to look depressed. Then he scored that goal against Sweden and became a world beater for that game.

BTW, great stuff on the fallers, I agree all the way.

BTW 2, I don’t think the italics show if you read on the phone. The quoted texts look very unformatted and everything is in italics, I think.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Lol they're are italicized.

Podkolzin
Krebs
Soderstrom

Krebs seems like a typical HF crush that ends up being a tweener at best.

Get a strong Ryan Strome vibe from Krebs.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Krebs seems like a typical HF crush that ends up being a tweener at best.

Get a strong Ryan Strome vibe from Krebs.

That is a crazy take. I would say literally the opposite, i think Krebs will surprise many people in a positive way. If we’re talkin busts we can talk ralph lavoie

 

[Ola]

Oilers and Buffalo need speed/secondary scoring. KREIDER

One problem is that they already had their fun. Buffalo have 5 years left of Okposo at 6m and the Oilers really don’t have much cap space.

Oilers also has that complex that they don’t believe that they can keep any player they get, so they often stay away.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Wondering, did Gorton say they were looking at a guy ~7--everyone keeps talking about "his guy."

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Dach could slide. Some guys I know think he's going to be 3 years away from being a top 6 forward... and have a prime of 5 peak years before the game fade by his skating ability.

That sounds like the average top-six player of this era.

 

[The Sweetness]

Wondering, did Gorton say they were looking at a guy ~7--everyone keeps talking about "his guy."

What’s this referring to?

 

[offdacrossbar]

I honestly don't see the offense in Podkolzin that scouts are raving about. To me it's just a ton of group think. They have a Russian kid that oozes leadership and character that plays a very hard North American style of game, and is trusted in all situations.

Which, hey is great.... but that translates to a very safe and reliable 3rd line player. I see a 15 goal-20 assist player, who is excellent on the PK and goes up against top lines.

Kind of like Vlad Namestikov, but that you can win with.

yep.

kid tries hard. strong motor. determined and very high compete level it seems. hes a passionate player with a strong work ethic. his floor is very high. defensive forward who competes. hell play in the nhl.

problem i have, there may not be the high end skills there. his goals seem to all come off the rush on individual plays- some of them high lite worthy. i fear there isn't another level though. there isnt that high hockey skill that translates into production. he goes dark for long stretches too often.

i see a kid who's a mid 1st rounder. not much more.

sadly, to me, hes a faster, russian version of lias andersson.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Krebs seems like a typical HF crush that ends up being a tweener at best.

Get a strong Ryan Strome vibe from Krebs.

definitely not true. surprising take here actually.

krebs is a high IQ super intuitive player. hes a natural hockey player. hes good at all but not elite at anything other than his understanding of the game.

i think you are severely underselling him.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

What’s this referring to?

Exactly what it says. Did he publicly indicate they want someone in the top 10? An inference from what I'm reading.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

definitely not true. surprising take here actually.

krebs is a high IQ super intuitive player. hes a natural hockey player. hes good at all but not elite at anything other than his understanding of the game.

i think you are severely underselling him.

There are so many guys like this that settle into middle-six NHL role. For example, you just described Jesper Fast.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Offdacrossbar- I think the general opinion on Krebs is a bit puzzling.

I’ve seen around a handful of people after the U18s say that they liked him and thought that he played well, but that he doesn’t have the highest upside as a top 2 line center.

He doesn’t have high upside at all, how many thinks that he can become as good as RNH? That is a real stretch. There is some myth that he is super smart, that is BS compared to the top guys in this draft. His playmaking ability is actually pretty average for a tweener. Much more Stepan like than like someone like Zegras who really find the lanes and create chances with his passing game.

Canada wasn’t very good at the U18s, Cozen and Newhook were the driver on the top line, and when Canada faced the better teams Krebs became a passenger.

His skating is pretty average, he isn’t that strong on the puck and so forth.

I think that he gets a ton of cred for playing a big role for Canada, but really, who did he beat out for that spot? Connor Zary was the 2nd best C for Canada, he is underaged. Tomasino is bound to be a 2nd round pick. It’s not like that is a guarantee for him having quality.

I gather that he was seen as some kind of wunder kid when he was 14-15, but since that hasn’t translated it just worries me more since it seemed that he was really early developed. I wouldn’t even be that excited if we got him around 25. Spiridonov is more talented than him, much better speed and size, his shot is better and Krebs playmaking doesn’t change much for me. Nikolayev’s skating is on par with Krebs, but I think Niko is more clutch and competes a little harder. About the same playmaking ability, Niko with the slight edge.

Talking about Krebs as a top 10 pick is just puzzling for me. I know some will chip in and call me out for having an opinion that nobody else and that Krebs is a fantastic play maker that skates extremely well etc. I just disagree. Time will tell.

cozens did not have a very good u18 tournament. if there was a passenger, he was that guy. he played hot and cold. and I'm a big cozens fan but he wasnt good enough.

krebs was consistently good through out the entire tourny as was newhook. those 2 outplayed cozens by a fair amount.

i see krebs as a very high iq kid who makes sublime plays and plays a solid 2 way game.

he is not my choice but i do believe he goes top 10 certainly top 12. there isnt a smarter centerman in this draft. hes at the top of that list for sure.

 

[True Blue]

Exactly what it says. Did he publicly indicate they want someone in the top 10? An inference from what I'm reading.

It is no secret that Gorton and Clark are very high on a number of kids. Most of the names we debated have them as top 10 pick

 

[TheBloodyNine]

cozens did not have a very good u18 tournament. if there was a passenger, he was that guy. he played hot and cold. and I'm a big cozens fan but he wasnt good enough.

krebs was consistently good through out the entire tourny as was newhook. those 2 outplayed cozens by a fair amount.

i see krebs as a very high iq kid who makes sublime plays and plays a solid 2 way game.

he is not my choice but i do believe he goes top 10 certainly top 12. there isnt a smarter centerman in this draft. hes at the top of that list for sure.

If Cozens is a faller then Gorton needs to be a riser.

 

[True Blue]

sadly, to me, hes a faster, russian version of lias andersson.

On pure talent alone, he is third in the draft. Lack of scoring is alarming, but maybe he needs a coach to extract that?

On Krebs, I see him as a solid 2nd line center. Like you said, nothing high end, but a good two way center.

 

[True Blue]

If Cozens is a faller then Gorton needs to be a riser.

If there is a chance to move and get a Zegras, Turcotte, Boldy, Cozens or a Dach, absolutely. I still have a hard time seeing those falling out of the top 10. Just as i have a hard time (right now) seeing the Rangers trade into the top 10.

IMO, the most realistic high end forward that may fall to the Jets pick is Newhook. Whom I would be very happy to take there. But if any of the above start to fall, I think that Gorton will do what he can to make the move to get them.

 

[Edge]

Wondering, did Gorton say they were looking at a guy ~7--everyone keeps talking about "his guy."

So, in a nutshell, there is a belief that the Rangers spent an extensive amount of time looking at guys that might be available in the 4-10 range and that they are very high on one or several. Almost immediately after the lottery, the idea was floated that the Rangers would like to find a way back into the top 10 to grab a player they originally had on their short list. This coincided with the widely held belief that the Rangers planned to be more aggressive in this draft and wanted to come away with "their guys." To some extent, I think we're already starting to see this approach manifest itself in the Fox deal.

With regards to this belief, I've talked to about 3 or 4 people, independent of each other, who basically said the same thing: the Rangers would love to find their way into another top 10 pick. A few days later, this belief also made its way into a Larry Brooks article.

Having said that, it's one thing to want to work your way into a top 10 pick, and another to actually find a partner and the right price. I think there is more interest out there than some may realize, but there's also a lot of moving parts right now. For starters, the Rangers are still trying to finalize the position of two picks they hold in the top 60.

No one knows for sure who the Rangers are theoretically interested in, though there were reports they were particularly high on Zegras and liked Cozens. That's why you tend to see those names pop up more, but it's pure speculation.

 

[pblawr]

So, in a nutshell, there is a belief that the Rangers spent an extensive amount of time looking at guys that might be available in the 4-10 range and that they are very high on one or several. Almost immediately after the lottery, the idea was floated that the Rangers would like to find a way back into the top 10 to grab a player they originally had on their short list. This coincided with the widely held belief that the Rangers planned to be more aggressive in this draft and wanted to come away with "their guys." To some extent, I think we're already starting to see this approach manifest itself in the Fox deal.

With regards to this belief, I've talked to about 3 or 4 people, independent of each other, who basically said the same thing: the Rangers would love to find their way into another top 10 pick. A few days later, this belief also made its way into a Larry Brooks article.

Having said that, it's one thing to want to work your way into a top 10 pick, and another to actually find a partner and the right price. I think there is more interest out there than some may realize, but there's also a lot of moving parts right now. For starters, the Rangers are still trying to finalize the position of two picks they hold in the top 60.

No one knows for sure who the Rangers are theoretically interested in, though there were reports they were particularly high on Zegras and liked Cozens. That's why you tend to see those names pop up more, but it's pure speculation.

It seems like Gorton's MO. They tried to trade up for Keller in 2016, then Makar / Pettersson in 2017, then they traded up for Miller in 2018. As long as they pick the right guys (which so far they have), I think it's great. I do think that it's tough to do though and the fact that we've been able to do it only once out of the 3 times is indicative of that. So while I'd be pleasantly be surprised if we can trade up for someone they love, I think it's more likely than not that we won't be able to.

 

[Edge]

If there is a chance to move and get a Zegras, Turcotte, Boldy, Cozens or a Dach, absolutely. I still have a hard time seeing those falling out of the top 10. Just as i have a hard time (right now) seeing the Rangers trade into the top 10.

IMO, the most realistic high end forward that may fall to the Jets pick is Newhook. Whom I would be very happy to take there. But if any of the above start to fall, I think that Gorton will do what he can to make the move to get them.

It's an interesting tug of war.

On the one hand, we can probably name at least 5-8 guys who shouldn't fall out of the top 10.

On the other hand, we can probably name at least 5-8 different guys who deserve to be in the top 10.

At some point, those two concepts will have to be reconciled. And as that sorts itself out, you're going to see players we've ranked lower end up being drafted higher, and players we ranked high going lower.

For every Caufield, York, Newhook, Broberg and Soderstrom we think could go in the top 10, that's a player that has to slip out of the top 10 in order for that to happen. And then there's the guys that we don't love, but are in a lot of top 10 lists - guys like Podkolzin and Krebs.

While the Rangers have been connected to the concept of pursuing another top 10, the reality is that they don't necessarily have to be in the top 10 to get their guy. It just makes it more likely he might be there. But if that path takes them to the 13 spot, having traded 19 and two seconds to get there, I don't think they'd balk at that.

 

[True Blue]

While the Rangers have been connected to the concept of pursuing another top 10, the reality is that they don't necessarily have to be in the top 10 to get their guy. It just makes it more likely he might be there. But if that path takes them to the 13 spot, having traded 19 and two seconds to get there, I don't think they'd balk at that.

Push comes to shove, I do not think so either. But that will be determined by how the draft is unfolding, IMO.