Do you believe in Dubas?

[colchar]

The fundamental flaw is having 50% of you cap tied up in 4 guys. Maybe you could get away with that if one of them is a minute eating, no 1 D who can drive offense and be one of top shut down D in the league. A guy like Hedman. Even then you need a steady stream of high-end talent on ELC's to provide cheap complimentary peices. Dubas had neither the Dman or the stream of high-end talent on RLC's - he traded away too many picks to win now or solve cap issues to make that work. With 50% of your cap tied up in 4F you can afford to have forward depth or an okay D corps but not both.

Where did he go wrong? With the Tavares signing. He was fine at Centre, He had Matthews and Kadri who was a more than adept no 2. Marleau was still there and effective. Bozak could have been extended. Not only did he tie up $11M, he probably cost a few million on the extensions of the big three.

In order to make the Cap work he was constantly having to move out or let walk good players as UFA's

• JVR/Bozak/Gardiner walk as UFA
• Trade great value contract in Kadri
• Trade Connor Brown as part of deal to remove Zaitsev contract
• reading a 1st to get rid of Marleau (yes Lou signed him but Dubas spent all the cap space necessitating the trade)
• Having to move Kapanen Johnsson for cap reasons
• Losing Hyman as UFA
• spending a 1st on Folingo rental
• Reilley is probably next

At the end of the day today's roster is not as deep as the 2017-18 one. D may be marginally better but that is it.

Kadri was not traded for cap reasons, he was traded because of the suspensions during the playoffs.

 

[colchar]

So you're conceding the GMs plan was to spend the last 2 years with a generational talent and signing JT not competing? What?

I am actually starting to think that 666's defense of Dubas is actually a well executed troll job.

 

[yubbers]

Ok, here it is one last time.

18-19 $80M JT and Nylander year 1
19-20 $85M Matthews & Marner year 1
20-21 $90M
21-22 $95M Contender era begins Matthews and Nylander have 3 seasons under contract Marner and JT have 4
22-23 $100M
23-24 $105M Last year for Matthews and Nylander
24-25 $110M Last year for Marner and JT

The contender era should have started this year with about a $90-$95M cap.
We would have had 3 years to contend with the big 4 and the last season (23-24) should have had a cap of at least $100M. It was a good plan.

You do realize your entire argument is based on your own imagination right? Advanced stats has really melted ppls brains. Lessons learned over 60 is through the roof!

 

[yubbers]

I am actually starting to think that 666's defense of Dubas is actually a well executed troll job.

Normally I'd agree. But we do live in clown world. Dubas identifies as successful you see :p

 

[colchar]

Ok, here it is one last time.

18-19 $80M JT and Nylander year 1
19-20 $85M Matthews & Marner year 1
20-21 $90M
21-22 $95M Contender era begins Matthews and Nylander have 3 seasons under contract Marner and JT have 4
22-23 $100M
23-24 $105M Last year for Matthews and Nylander
24-25 $110M Last year for Marner and JT

The contender era should have started this year with about a $90-$95M cap.
We would have had 3 years to contend with the big 4 and the last season (23-24) should have had a cap of at least $100M. It was a good plan.

So it was a good plan to compete with players who have produced sweet f**k all in the playoffs? Brilliant.

 

[666]

You do realize your entire argument is based on your own imagination right? Advanced stats has really melted ppls brains. Lessons learned over 60 is through the roof!

I'm not the advanced stats guy. If you don't understand how teams plan for the cap increasing I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Edgelord]

I have lost faith in Keefe

 

[capfit9]

Ok, here it is one last time.

18-19 $80M JT and Nylander year 1
19-20 $85M Matthews & Marner year 1
20-21 $90M
21-22 $95M Contender era begins Matthews and Nylander have 3 seasons under contract Marner and JT have 4
22-23 $100M
23-24 $105M Last year for Matthews and Nylander
24-25 $110M Last year for Marner and JT

The contender era should have started this year with about a $90-$95M cap.
We would have had 3 years to contend with the big 4 and the last season (23-24) should have had a cap of at least $100M. It was a good plan.

plans change, adapt, just like the other 31 teams

 

[666]

So it was a good plan to compete with players who have produced sweet f**k all in the playoffs? Brilliant.

But it's not the plan that unfolded. How are the stars supposed to produce when they are stuck with 3rd liners like Hyman and Ritchie on the top line? The plan was good, covid killed it. There are solutions but the number one issue is the cap balance.

 

[666]

plans change, adapt, just like the other 31 teams

I'm not arguing that. I'm just telling everyone what the plan was and that it was a good plan.

 

[Bomber0104]

I'm not arguing that. I'm just telling everyone what the plan was and that it was a good plan.

Giving a player a $77 million / 7 year deal for them to help you contend in year 4-7 is not a good plan, at all.

Last year Tavares was the 5th highest paid player in the league , 27th in points scored and 43rd in PPG.

Notice a problem here?

There's already substantial deadweight loss on that contract before your theorized "contender" years have even kicked in.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

they don't look like it in any capacity.

because they don't care.

it's not hard

 

[sparxx87]

Haha that's the sentiment that got me dragged into this thread.

There's a lot of middle ground to be had here. It's not totally hopeless, but for me it's always been about paying their second line centre $11M. Marner is overpaid by $2-3M so even if you think Matthews is a bit rich, $2-4M isn't fixing this teams problems.

My salvage plan would be a new administration with no loyalty to these players coming in and being the bad guy that Masai Ujiri was for trading Demar DeRozan. Take Tavares' C and tell him if he ever wants to play in the league it'll be for another team, or he can watch from the pressbox. We love you but we can't afford the luxury of you as our 2nd best centre at $11M, sorry. Obviously you aren't packaging him for an elite player, but I'd be talking to teams with two good number 2-3C's but no #1 and see what I come up with.

No easy fix but adjusting the Matthews contract in dollars makes little difference. The term remaining leaves the clock ticking so while your heart wants to plan a future with him, your business needs to be maximizing the little time he may have left there.

I'm not opposed to your idea in trading Marner but I still think that's a hard trade to win and easy one to lose. It would be verrrrrry interesting to hear what might be on the table for him right now. Without knowing the return it's really tough for me to make up my mind to move him because that kills my leverage. I'm not selling Mitch, but I'm listening on what someone might buy him for... and then I'm playing hard to get for a few months. Marner has a unique creativity to his game that a lot of people love - if they can find the right ransom to add to Matthews and Nylander thats the play.... but can you even afford the likely multiple salaries with Tavares? I've had a bunch of these conversations with different people and almost every action plan comes back to Tavares' $11M on the second line getting in the way.

Theres just so many layers to the question 'how to fix this?'.

 

[Kazparov]

Dubas has done some really great moves but he has made two series of huge errors which out weigh the positive.

He rushed the rebuild. Signing Taveres (for that cap hit) looks to be a mistake. JT is on the downside of his career and it looks like the move was made so the Leaf could claim a PR victory.

The second error which was a consequence of the first was that it set the expectations for what players on the team could demand.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Giving a player a $77 million / 7 year deal for them to help you contend in year 4-7 is not a good plan, at all.

Last year Tavares was the 5th highest paid player in the league , 27th in points scored and 43rd in PPG.

Notice a problem here?

There's already substantial deadweight loss on that contract before your theorized "contender" years have even kicked in.

not to point out the obvious ...

we had forwards.

We needed D.

You always lock in your core before you go UFA shopping.

Dubas failed.

This flawed roster need either a major reboot or a tear down.

Shanahan won't allow a tear down. Matthews and Tavares aren't going anywhere.


It's trade Marner or Nylander.


Dems da facts.


Patience isn't applicable when the players are going through the motions.

 

[666]

Giving a player a $77 million / 7 year deal for them to help you contend in year 4-7 is not a good plan, at all.

Tavares was the 5th highest paid player in the league and was 27th in points scored and 43rd in PPG.

There's already substantial deadweight loss on that contract before your theorized "contender" years have even kicked in.

Part of his job was to mentor the young guys, be captain and take the heat off of Matthews. Is $11M too much for a 2C? Sure, but if the cap is $100M it's not that bad. Guys like Toews were making $10.5M in 15-16. This is much easier with hindsight, but at the time everyone knew that there would be some cap issues for a few years but we also knew that if the cap continued to rise that we would be serious contenders in a few years.

 

[BigGulpsEh]

I'm not arguing that. I'm just telling everyone what the plan was and that it was a good plan.

Do you believe he can adapt and turn it around quickly?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Dubas has done some really great moves but he has made two series of huge errors which out weigh the positive.

He rushed the rebuild. Signing Taveres (for that cap hit) looks to be a mistake. JT is on the downside of his career and it looks like the move was made so the Leaf could claim a PR victory.

The second error which was a consequence of the first was that it set the expectations for what players on the team could demand.

Those are fatal flaws.

He should have paid M M N before Tavares.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

There's a lot of middle ground to be had here. It's not totally hopeless, but for me it's always been about paying their second line centre $11M. Marner is overpaid by $2-3M so even if you think Matthews is a bit rich, $2-4M isn't fixing this teams problems.

My salvage plan would be a new administration with no loyalty to these players coming in and being the bad guy that Masai Ujiri was for trading Demar DeRozan. Take Tavares' C and tell him if he ever wants to play in the league it'll be for another team, or he can watch from the pressbox. We love you but we can't afford the luxury of you as our 2nd best centre at $11M, sorry. Obviously you aren't packaging him for an elite player, but I'd be talking to teams with two good number 2-3C's but no #1 and see what I come up with.

No easy fix but adjusting the Matthews contract in dollars makes little difference. The term remaining leaves the clock ticking so while your heart wants to plan a future with him, your business needs to be maximizing the little time he may have left there.

I'm not opposed to your idea in trading Marner but I still think that's a hard trade to win and easy one to lose. It would be verrrrrry interesting to hear what might be on the table for him right now. Without knowing the return it's really tough for me to make up my mind to move him because that kills my leverage. I'm not selling Mitch, but I'm listening on what someone might buy him for... and then I'm playing hard to get for a few months. Marner has a unique creativity to his game that a lot of people love - if they can find the right ransom to add to Matthews and Nylander thats the play.... but can you even afford the likely multiple salaries with Tavares? I've had a bunch of these conversations with different people and almost every action plan comes back to Tavares' $11M on the second line getting in the way.

Theres just so many layers to the question 'how to fix this?'.

I agree with your way of pushing JT out the door. The only problem is that you effectively kill off your chances of signing any future UFA (might not be a bad thing in a way) by doing that. I have said the exact same thing..."Sorry John...but we paid you to be a difference maker and gave you the Captaincy to lead us...you have failed in both respects, we held up our end of the deal by paying you what you wanted...goodbye or sit in the pressbox until you come to your senses and leave"

 

[capfit9]

I'm not arguing that. I'm just telling everyone what the plan was and that it was a good plan.

the cap going up does not guarantee the core players producing in the playoffs. essentially, the cap can go to $120 million but if the top guys don't produce, does the cap really matter ?

 

[duffy]

I have lost faith in Keefe

Claude Julien is available and just might help the team with it's defense problem, since scoring hasn't been much of a problem.

 

[Mickey Marner]

But rather than overpaying the core and banking on the delayed gratification being worth it, why not just give out normal contracts and compete every year?

 

[ACC1224]

Claude Julien is available and just might help the team with it's defense problem, since scoring hasn't been much of a problem.

They are currently 29th in goals per game.

Julien would be a great coach though.

 

[Buds17]

Dubas has done some really great moves but he has made two series of huge errors which out weigh the positive.

He rushed the rebuild. Signing Taveres (for that cap hit) looks to be a mistake. JT is on the downside of his career and it looks like the move was made so the Leaf could claim a PR victory.

The second error which was a consequence of the first was that it set the expectations for what players on the team could demand.

I disagree that Dubas rushed the rebuild. Drafting a 1st overall with the skill set of Matthews is when the push to put the best foot forward should begin IMO. I do think fair criticisms can be found in the contracts/cap structure and whether or not the team currently has an effective enough mix of players though.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Nobody has ever paid a forward who can't shoot 11 million.

Until Dubas.

Someone needed to add a column to Dubas' excel spreadsheet: Can Shoot (y/n) ?

So. sad. So. predictable. Sorry Dubas, it's just a matter of time.

if you turn up the audio from the game last night, you can hear what the players think:

Spoiler: What they think

it just doesn't matter