Do you believe in Dubas?

[Trapper]

Here is the graph of the cap in the cap era. From NHL salary cap - Wikipedia
View attachment 474253

With a new TV deal and the Kraken fees it's not unreasonable to expect the cap to have gone.
18-19 $79.5
19-20 $85
20-21 $90
21-22 $95
22-23 $100

I recall that "everyone" was projecting something similar.
We "should" be at $95M right now and it would have only gotten better. That would have allowed us to balance out our cap a lot more instead of having almost half of it on 4 guys. In the last year of Marner's contract the cap might have been $110M and he would be a bargain.

Unfortunately it didn’t but zero adjustments were still made to the “new reality”.

Even with that being said, even a sliver (a tiny iota) of any kind of post season success, one round, hard fought, would have bought this core or team a good amount of time. People defend failure now, just a moderate amount of success would feed them for a few more years.

They couldn’t even do that and starting the season looking like you have no plan or hunger is just fuelling the fire.

 

[socko]

LMAO at the result of this twitter poll - am sure most of that is just trolls but i think there is some reality to it

What are the results? I'm not joining Twitter to find out.

 

[Stamkos4life]

LMAO at the result of this twitter poll - am sure most of that is just trolls but i think there is some reality to it

Dean blundell is such a tool.

But this poll is pretty funny. Mind sharing the results for those of us who don't use twitter?

 

[colchar]

No, I expected them to use the quickly increasing cap to balance out the team cap more improving in our weaker areas and getting better. Once the cap hit around $100M give or take we would have been right up there.

You're assuming Spreadsheet Dubious would somehow have made all the right moves with that money. Based on past performance, that is a fantasy.

 

[Mess]

Greenhorn President hires greenhorn GM, who hires greenhorn Coach..

What could possible go wrong?

 

[colchar]

There's a rumour going through people right now that dubas will get fired soon. In hours and somebody will be stepping in.

I'd love to see your source on this.

 

[justashadowof]

I apologize in advance for what I'm about to do:

We weren't supposed to contend the last few years or probably even this year.

What???? Are you suggesting that the team has overachieved? That's laughable on its face. What are they waiting for? For Tavares to lose another step? For more vets to leave through free agency?

This team is structured for the cap to be $15 - $20M higher.

I can't argue with that. That's the only way you can overburden cap hit of the forward group onto a few players.

$15 - $20M higher. That's some significant upgrades in places where we need it

So this team's contention was predicated on the cap rising $15-20M higher in only 2 summers? Alex, I'd like "Things That Were Never Going to Happen" for $1000. The cap rising $10M in 2 years is a stretch. It probably was likely to be about $5M over those 2 years.

Other teams didn't give half of the cap to 4 guys or pay a 2C $11M.

Yep, that's why the team is where it is today. Dubas thought he could game the system and ruined a promising situation.

Dubas was thinking ahead and covid ruined his well laid plans.

"Well laid plans" can't be ruined by system stasis which Dubas is VERY fortunate happened. If the cap were actually based on league revenues over the past 2 seasons, the cap would have actually gone down significantly. Where was Dubas' contingency planning and risk management? There was none other than peeling off vets (and young vets) and not considering the move of at least one of the $11M players. The plans of a recency-biased midwit who goes all in on a bull market will always fail eventually. This is how there is never a short supply of suckers for Ponzi schemes.

 

[666]

You're assuming Spreadsheet Dubious would somehow have made all the right moves with that money. Based on past performance, that is a fantasy.

I don't know. Dubas generally doesn't have those horrible Lucic / Zaitsev type contracts. Does he over pay stars a bit? Sure? But he has to get credit for not having a Lucic or Hyman at $5.5M and Kessel isn't his fault. All in all if Dubas had another $20M I would expect him to only "waste" a few million.

 

[Clark4Ever]

There's a rumour going through people right now that dubas will get fired soon. In hours and somebody will be stepping in.

If that's true, it wouldn't make sense unless Keefe was going with him.

 

[deprw]

I'm sure most would like to be convinced you're right.
What is it that he's done? Team bottomed out, got a few high picks and is now spinning it's wheels.
I was excited when he was brought in but IMO, he's been disappointing.

IMO in start of the rebuild he made this safe place to play, made this credible organization and embraced our history. We have build up all our resources during that time and I think that will help us more in long rather than short run. Health, analytics, player development and drafting. Brought in right people to right roles and I think he can do it again. This has been successful rebuild without results, but still we have lots of value in our players and can retool from this spinning wheels lots of ways.

We have utilized our resources every way, it shame we haven't got results, but I think it's more on our players rather than on front office. Dubas will pay the price eventually if this goes this way, but I don't know if I want change Shanahan at the same moment. Like said earlier we might not get great hockey mind, we might get great business and we have bad history with those, because in that setup salaries and players are more of a cost rather than investment.

 

[Coachcorner]

I'd love to see your source on this.

No source sire. Just a rumour I heard off of a human being. No link here. Lets see and wait if something happens. Anythang. Its a weird time sire.

 

[666]

What???? Are you suggesting that the team has overachieved? That's laughable on its face. What are they waiting for? For Tavares to lose another step? For more vets to leave through free agency?

Considering that the covid freeze left the cap and team unbalanced, yes, I'd say they kinda overachieved since they didn't have the cap to fix things. Of course they could have attempted dismantling the core but by keeping the core intact they probably did overachieve a bit but the North division helped more than anything last season.

So this team's contention was predicated on the cap rising $15-20M higher in only 2 summers? Alex, I'd like "Things That Were Never Going to Happen" for $1000. The cap rising $10M in 2 years is a stretch. It probably was likely to be about $5M over those 2 years.

I posted a graph a couple of posts ago. With the new TV deal and the Kraken fees I recall people projecting about a $95M cap for this season.

I think it's unreasonable to expect ANYONE to have predicted covid. Covid killed the cap and with it this team as it's configured. Now if you want to argue that during covid Dubas should have dismantled the core then in hindsight you might be right. The only thing I've been defending in this thread is that the plan was a good one and covid killed the plan.

 

[justashadowof]

I don't know. Dubas generally doesn't have those horrible Lucic / Zaitsev type contracts. Does he over pay stars a bit? Sure? But he has to get credit for not having a Lucic or Hyman at $5.5M and Kessel isn't his fault. All in all if Dubas had another $20M I would expect him to only "waste" a few million.

Kyle Dubas negotiated the Kessel trade. How is that not his fault?

 

[justashadowof]

Considering that the covid freeze left the cap and team unbalanced, yes, I'd say they kinda overachieved since they didn't have the cap to fix things. Of course they could have attempted dismantling the core but by keeping the core intact they probably did overachieve a bit but the North division helped more than anything last season.



I posted a graph a couple of posts ago. With the new TV deal and the Kraken fees I recall people projecting about a $95M cap for this season.

I think it's unreasonable to expect ANYONE to have predicted covid. Covid killed the cap and with it this team as it's configured. Now if you want to argue that during covid Dubas should have dismantled the core then in hindsight you might be right. The only thing I've been defending in this thread is that the plan was a good one and covid killed the plan.

Planning for unlimited growth is midwit stupidity.

 

[666]

Kyle Dubas negotiated the Kessel trade. How is that not his fault?

Sure, but he wasn't the one who signed him to the original deal. Same with Marleau.

 

[yubbers]

I don't know. Dubas generally doesn't have those horrible Lucic / Zaitsev type contracts. Does he over pay stars a bit? Sure? But he has to get credit for not having a Lucic or Hyman at $5.5M and Kessel isn't his fault. All in all if Dubas had another $20M I would expect him to only "waste" a few million.

Can you remind us what Tyson Barrie cost?

Considering that the covid freeze left the cap and team unbalanced, yes, I'd say they kinda overachieved since they didn't have the cap to fix things. Of course they could have attempted dismantling the core but by keeping the core intact they probably did overachieve a bit but the North division helped more than anything last season.



I posted a graph a couple of posts ago. With the new TV deal and the Kraken fees I recall people projecting about a $95M cap for this season.

I think it's unreasonable to expect ANYONE to have predicted covid. Covid killed the cap and with it this team as it's configured. Now if you want to argue that during covid Dubas should have dismantled the core then in hindsight you might be right. The only thing I've been defending in this thread is that the plan was a good one and covid killed the plan.

You have no evidence the plan was good. The actual evidence show the exact opposite! We lost to CBJ in the qualifying round when Covid started. What magical money would he have had that season?

 

[666]

Planning for unlimited growth is midwit stupidity.

Assuming a future zombie apocalypse is going to destroy your business is pretty dumb too.

 

[666]

You have no evidence the plan was good. The actual evidence show the exact opposite! We lost to CBJ in the qualifying round when Covid started. What magical money would he have had that season?

The plan would have been to start "contending" once the cap hit around $95-$100M. That "era" would have started around this season give or take.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Dubas contracts:

AAV - failure, Term - failure, bonuses - failure.

I know people rag on the Leafs for the contracts they handed out to their star players.

However something that doesn't get enough attention is how bad the bonus structures they handed out are. Signing bonuses like anything else in a negotiation are a point of leverage. If you have the ability to hand out massive signing bonuses that makes using that leverage even more important. However if you look at the Leafs RFA contracts they are quite possibly the most generous bonus structures handed out to a group of RFAs in hockey history yet what did the RFAs in turn sacrifice in terms of UFA years or AAV?

Matthews and Marner get paid their entire salaries in signing bonuses:

But it doesn't seem like either gave an inch from their side either in the $$ amount or in term (by selling more UFA years).

Compare this other recent RFAs who sign big money deals who didn't really give a discount to the team.

Rantanen (0 signing bonuses)

Quinn Hughes (0 signing bonuses):

Cale Makar (almost 0 signing bonuses):

This seems fair, these guys signed market value contracts without giving up many UFA years and the team also did their bare minimum and did not give out signing bonuses.

Even a guy like Brayden Point who gave his team a massive discount is only getting roughly slightly over half his salary in bonuses (the same amount as Nylander a guy who held out and didn't give an inch).

If the Leafs were gonna offer such generous bonus structures to RFAs they should have gotten something in return from the players (more ufa years or less aav). Bonuses aren't meaningless, if you get almost all your pay on Sept 1st, then you are essentially getting 10% extra salary as that is average return on a basic mutual fund (for the average person like you an me, not even considering advisors these guys have who are much more savvy at investing). It is essentially extra 10% (at the bare minimum) in salary. Yet the Leafs got 0 concessions from these players for that perk. Sad to see.

I ignored Tavares for this discussion as a UFA getting a generous bonus structure if much more common, understandable and reasonable.

well said

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Dubas ....

You don't sign players who don't want to be there, you trade them.

 

[justashadowof]

Assuming a future zombie apocalypse is going to destroy your business is pretty dumb too.

We haven't even had the recession/depression that is currently being delayed until everyone has been primed for it.

What has happened to date in the NHL universe is no change in the salary cap in 3 seasons. That's not a catastrophe, that's stasis. Being unable to have a functional contingency for stasis is failure level planning.

 

[4thline]

Maybe, but we don’t know. I tend to think that any team giving that type of compensation would want 8 years… trading 4 1sts for potentially 5 years of Matthews would have been an even bigger mistake than Dubas made.

Oh I agree with you that Shanahan is a fraud, too.. but what he said was correct, even if he didn’t live by it.

I disagree on the valuation of those 1sts. If Matthews was traded tomorrow would we be happy with a return of Xavier Bourgalt and Edmonton's 2022 1st? I sure wouldn't. A player of Matthews calibre is worth much more than a 1st every year as a rental, and the only way that changes is if the picks starts getting into top 5 territory, maybe top 10.

But then it's not the 4 1st's for 5 years that's at question.
Would someone to it for 7 years at a number that wrecks the Eichel/McDavid split? Probably
Would someone do 2-5 years for 1st+1st+2nd+3rd at a number that wrecks the Eichel-McDavid split? Almost certainly.

 

[Twine Tickler]

This is the level of accountability we need from our leadership group.



not:





I'm not asking for them to give us a fiery quote, but they keep referencing how pissed off they are about how last season ended, yet they don't look like it in any capacity. Not in the media, not in their play.

 

[666]

We haven't even had the recession/depression that is currently being delayed until everyone has been primed for it.

What has happened to date in the NHL universe is no change in the salary cap in 3 seasons. That's not a catastrophe, that's stasis. Being unable to have a functional contingency for stasis is failure level planning.

Don't be silly. Every contract in this league uses cap projections by both sides. The economy before covid was fantastic. Without covid we would have been closing in on $100M soon and that's only projecting a few years or so out. How do you expect to do 8 year deals if you can't project out 5 years?
Even with the covid mess, we still have the assets and one option is to disassemble the core. To suggest not planning on a rising cap when it always rises is stupid.

 

[keonsbitterness]

I posted a graph a couple of posts ago. With the new TV deal and the Kraken fees I recall people projecting about a $95M cap for this season.

If you mean expansion fees, those are excluded from hockey-related revenue.