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Do you believe in Dubas?

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Do you believe in Dubas?

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666 said:
Don't be silly. Every contract in this league uses cap projections by both sides. The economy before covid was fantastic. Without covid we would have been closing in on $100M soon and that's only projecting a few years or so out. How do you expect to do 8 year deals if you can't project out 5 years?
Even with the covid mess, we still have the assets and one option is to disassemble the core. To suggest not planning on a rising cap when it always rises is stupid.
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We're well overdue for a worldwide recession. If that cold reality isn't factored into planning even for a seemingly recession-proof enterprise like hockey in Toronto then you're playing checkers when the game is chess. This unlimited growth mindset is part of that simpleminded "line goes up" thinking that makes Dubas a lameduck hockey executive in 2021.
 
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justashadowof said:
We're well overdue for a worldwide recession. If that cold reality isn't factored into planning even for a seemingly recession-proof enterprise like hockey in Toronto then you're playing checkers when the game is chess. This unlimited growth mindset is part of that simpleminded "line goes up" thinking that makes Dubas a lameduck hockey executive in 2021.
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Its interesting you bring that up. I remember in 2019 wondering why NHL teams run their cap like there’s endless growth in the economy even when a lot of people were doom and gloom about 2020 in the financial world.
 
4thline said:
I disagree on the valuation of those 1sts. If Matthews was traded tomorrow would we be happy with a return of Xavier Bourgalt and Edmonton's 2022 1st? I sure wouldn't. A player of Matthews calibre is worth much more than a 1st every year as a rental, and the only way that changes is if the picks starts getting into top 5 territory, maybe top 10.

But then it's not the 4 1st's for 5 years that's at question.
Would someone to it for 7 years at a number that wrecks the Eichel/McDavid split? Probably
Would someone do 2-5 years for 1st+1st+2nd+3rd at a number that wrecks the Eichel-McDavid split? Almost certainly.
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No, but if he walked via OS after signing for more than he’s worth I’d congratulate and wish him well. I’d have an internal max and wouldn’t exceed it no matter what his agent had to say.

For 7 years and anything less than 12 I’d match. I don’t think he’d sign for any less than what would be 4 1st’s because as you mention, he wanted the money from the jump.

I’ve never been worried about offer sheets. If someone wants to overpay one of my players, let them. If they sign for something reasonable than they’ve done my work for me and I match.

Win-win.
 
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The fundamental flaw is having 50% of you cap tied up in 4 guys. Maybe you could get away with that if one of them is a minute eating, no 1 D who can drive offense and be one of top shut down D in the league. A guy like Hedman. Even then you need a steady stream of high-end talent on ELC's to provide cheap complimentary peices. Dubas had neither the Dman or the stream of high-end talent on RLC's - he traded away too many picks to win now or solve cap issues to make that work. With 50% of your cap tied up in 4F you can afford to have forward depth or an okay D corps but not both.

Where did he go wrong? With the Tavares signing. He was fine at Centre, He had Matthews and Kadri who was a more than adept no 2. Marleau was still there and effective. Bozak could have been extended. Not only did he tie up $11M, he probably cost a few million on the extensions of the big three.

In order to make the Cap work he was constantly having to move out or let walk good players as UFA's
  • JVR/Bozak/Gardiner walk as UFA
  • Trade great value contract in Kadri
  • Trade Connor Brown as part of deal to remove Zaitsev contract
  • reading a 1st to get rid of Marleau (yes Lou signed him but Dubas spent all the cap space necessitating the trade)
  • Having to move Kapanen Johnsson for cap reasons
  • Losing Hyman as UFA
  • spending a 1st on Folingo rental
  • Reilley is probably next
At the end of the day today's roster is not as deep as the 2017-18 one. D may be marginally better but that is it.
 
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sparxx87 said:
No, but if he walked via OS after signing for more than he’s worth I’d congratulate and wish him well. I’d have an internal max and wouldn’t exceed it no matter what his agent had to say.

For 7 years and anything less than 12 I’d match. I don’t think he’d sign for any less than what would be 4 1st’s because as you mention, he wanted the money from the jump.

I’ve never been worried about offer sheets. If someone wants to overpay one of my players, let them. If they sign for something reasonable than they’ve done my work for me and I match.

Win-win.
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I think the real risk was 10.5 by 2 or 3 with a loaded qualifying offer. With what we know of his relationship with Babcock I think if the initial negotiation broke down it was going to get ugly.
 
Dubas’ problem is when you look at the lineup he’s betting on several players to either out perform their massive contracts year on year with no slip up, decline or down year (3x $10 million plus guys) and then a number of bets on cheap bottom salary guys to consistently outperform their low cap hit, which miraculously they have been (Campbell, Spezza, Holl). We don’t have a big number of mid salary stable, career prime guys in the middle of the lineup either who can give you a predictable outcome year to year. (Think TJ Brodie level reliability at the forward position). Add to the fact that the development system isn’t producing any decent quantity of ELC players they trust. And we’re basically a post cup hangover team without the banner.
 
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4thline said:
I think the real risk was 10.5 by 2 or 3 with a loaded qualifying offer. With what we know of his relationship with Babcock I think if the initial negotiation broke down it was going to get ugly.
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Isn’t the threshold for the 4 1st’s at $9.?M .. ?

I just think a better sales pitch cools his hatred of the coach. “Average tenure of a coach in the league is 4 years, we’re trying to build a team to contend for the next decade with you and your legacy as the centrepiece” That’s the vision they’re selling.

As hard as it would be, if he doesn’t take to the sweet nothings I’d be whispering in his ear, business is business. :laugh:
 
waterboy-we.gif


This meme perfectly encompasses what it means to be a Leaf fan right now.
 
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sparxx87 said:
Isn’t the threshold for the 4 1st’s at $9.?M .. ?

I just think a better sales pitch cools his hatred of the coach. “Average tenure of a coach in the league is 4 years, we’re trying to build a team to contend for the next decade with you and your legacy as the centrepiece” That’s the vision they’re selling.

As hard as it would be, if he doesn’t take to the sweet nothings I’d be whispering in his ear, business is business. :laugh:
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Nah at the time of that negotiation for anything 5 years or less it was something like 10.6
 
4thline said:
Nah at the time of that negotiation for anything 5 years or less it was something like 10.6
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Yeah, that’s tough. From the Leafs end that’s less than ideal, but I think more about the likelihood of another team presenting that offer, and getting Matthews for 10.5 or less… in that instance for anything that still leaves him an RFA I think I’d match.

Big picture, though, the Matthews contract isn’t even on my top 10 list of concerns. If that was even close to their biggest problem this team would be in much better shape.
 
sparxx87 said:
Yeah, that’s tough. From the Leafs end that’s less than ideal, but I think more about the likelihood of another team presenting that offer, and getting Matthews for 10.5 or less… in that instance for anything that still leaves him an RFA I think I’d match.

Big picture, though, the Matthews contract isn’t even on my top 10 list of concerns. If that was the biggest problem this team would be in much better shape.
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Haha that's the sentiment that got me dragged into this thread.
 
After this year and the team still have the same result. I think either Dubas or Shanahan will be gone.
 
socko said:
Unless they're doing the Eichel trade (which they should if Buffalo has any interest in a trade for Marner) then there is little point in firing Dubas now. Let him go down with the ship, just don't let him sell off any more of our future assets. And if Shanahan isn't fired I'm going to be really pissed off.
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Agreed...why would you want the arsonist in charge of putting out the fire? Let the next guy do the trades...you never know..it might even be a guy who knows what he's doing and get way more than Dubas would anyways.

The only teams that Dubas seems to have a working relationship with is LAK and CBJ...so he is limited in who he can actually get a fair deal from. CBJ likes to bend Dubas over...so maybe its just LAK.
 
usernamezrhardtodo said:
Agreed...why would you want the arsonist in charge of putting out the fire? Let the next guy do the trades...you never know..it might even be a guy who knows what he's doing and get way more than Dubas would anyways.

The only teams that Dubas seems to have a working relationship with is LAK and CBJ...so he is limited in who he can actually get a fair deal from. CBJ likes to bend Dubas over...so maybe its just LAK.
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Agreed, if they decide to move on from some of the core Dubas can not be allowed to botch that up.
 
yubbers said:
That doesn't make it better.
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Ok, here it is one last time.

18-19 $80M JT and Nylander year 1
19-20 $85M Matthews & Marner year 1
20-21 $90M
21-22 $95M Contender era begins Matthews and Nylander have 3 seasons under contract Marner and JT have 4
22-23 $100M
23-24 $105M Last year for Matthews and Nylander
24-25 $110M Last year for Marner and JT

The contender era should have started this year with about a $90-$95M cap.
We would have had 3 years to contend with the big 4 and the last season (23-24) should have had a cap of at least $100M. It was a good plan.
 
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