Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[NJDfan86]

That’s not that many players making over 7 million per year considering one of them will probably be worth 10+ as early as next season in actual value. Bratt and Nico will also be primed aged and worth what they’re paid. Hamilton remains to be seen.

The issue is when you are not getting value from the contracts you’re handing out. I don’t think the cap will be a huge problem with Holtz and Luke’s ELCs for the next few years. After that, we’ll see. That’s something literally every team has to deal with. I’m not concerned.

While those contract value are all fine and well, they are really not relevant to the cap in practice.

Yes, we want players outperforming their contracts but we will not have enough room for a lot of these players long term.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

The Devils have a PPG winger in the AHL on an ELC already in the organization, and a top 6 pick this year. Winger is so much lower on the need chart than goalie and defenseman.

I’m not sold that he’s gonna be a top 6 winger let alone a top line winger like I think we need. I don’t think Holtz will be good enough even if he turns out. Winger really isn’t lower than Defensmen on the depth chart. We have Hamilton, Severson, Siegenthaler, Hughes, Graves, Smith, Okhotiuk. Bahl, Mukhammadullin, Walsh(eh). It’s just gonna be about resigning and figuring out who stays and who goes. We’re more likely than not gonna end up trading a dman or two. Other than finding a solid 3RD defense is not a big need at all.

 

[Guttersniped]

Holy. What don’t people understand. We’re only talking about this deal in the context of us being certain that he will be extended if he hasn’t already when the trade is made. Nobody is saying we should make a big trade for 1 year of Fiala.

I assume we’ll know he’s interested in an extension, not sure he agrees to the specifics of a contract before a trade. Also 7 years is very optimistic goal for the term unless the AAV is pretty generous. (Which is why, while he’s an excellent player, I’d still hold firm on what assets I would spend on him.)

Buchnevich was traded on July 23rd & signed on July 27th for 4 years/5.8m.

Reinhart was traded on July 24th 2021 & signed on August 11th for 3 years/6.5m.

Jake Bean was traded on July 23rd 2021 & signed on July 29th for 3 years/2.33m

Matt Murray was traded on Oct 7th 2020 & signed on Oct 9th for 4 years/6.25m

Josh Anderson was traded on Oct 6th 2020 signed on Oct 8th for 7 years/5.5m (This understandably came together quickly because Anderson’s agent made it clear he was only signing a one year or seven year deal.)

The only day of signing I can think of was Seth Jones extension with Chicago but that is for 8 years/9.5m starting in 2022-23, so it’s easy to see how that got quickly agreed to.

 

[Eggtimer]

Adding Fiala would be awesome .
There are worse options of high end acquisitions in my opinion but Fiala still isn’t the perfect ideal one and I don’t feel like we should give up major assets unless it is considered an ideal slam dunk near perfect fit . ( E Kane if you could switch his personality out with Sharangovich ‘s . Players like Tkachuk or Meier ) .
Even then I think we have “ good “ offence but could use a deadly goalie first , a defensive stud RHD and two or three middle 6 wingers like Nuke Neiderrieder Marchment.
I wouldn’t target an elite winger unless it’s a steal of a deal and / or we know we addressed other needs first .

 

[Eggtimer]

If using massive assets , I want a stud power foreword , 30g + guy that can make space for Nico or Jack plus be automatic finisher in the slot

 

[Unknown Caller]

Adding Fiala would be awesome .
There are worse options of high end acquisitions in my opinion but Fiala still isn’t the perfect ideal one and I don’t feel like we should give up major assets unless it is considered an ideal slam dunk near perfect fit . ( E Kane if you could switch his personality out with Sharangovich ‘s . Players like Tkachuk or Meier ) .
Even then I think we have “ good “ offence but could use a deadly goalie first , a defensive stud RHD and two or three middle 6 wingers like Nuke Neiderrieder Marchment.
I wouldn’t target an elite winger unless it’s a steal of a deal and / or we know we addressed other needs first .

Develop your middle 6 wingers internally on cost controlled contracts. Teams constantly chase middle 6 wingers off a couple hot seasons in free agency, and by and large they fall off and don’t live up to the contract. You’re just paying for past performance (see David Clarkson).

The Devils have so many options for effective middle six guys. If they’re spending assets and cap space, it should be for elite players to complement Jack and Nico.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I don't follow the cap side super closely so I'm legit asking questions here but.

Bratt needs to be signed, as does Sev's, and we need to find a goalie. If we trade for Fiala, we need to sign him too. Again don't really know the cap situation, but even with Subban coming off(and that is not a complete write off as we need to find a replacement for that spot too) I imagine it get's tight.

As per Graves. I assume not bringing him back is centered around the idea of Hughes being in the mix. In this scenario we have a 20 year old rookie in Hughes as well as one of Bahl/Smith/OK. That's a little risky imo if we are thinking the team should be a playoff team at that point.

Graves probably isn’t coming back because we have two solid young dmen (Bahl and Okhotiuk) who look good and finished better than him as well as Luke Hughes and Mukhammadullin coming up. Graves was terrible the last half of the year.

We also have more than Subban coming off the books. We have 10.15 million tied up in Tatar, Zacha and Johnsson. 6.125 tied up in dead goaltenders in Schneider and Bernier. And a bit tied up in Butcher.

If using massive assets , I want a stud power foreword , 30g + guy that can make sis e for Nico or Jack

Well he’s a 30+ goal point per game guy. I guess he just isn’t big enough.

 

[Triumph]

I never brought up a redraft. Not sure what you’re talking about. I was purely talking about value and I’d say Brannstrom’s value was similar to that of a top 10 NHL draft pick when he was traded.


I completely disagree with you on the value. I understand that the ELC days are very valuable but I don’t think it outweighs how valuable an established player of Fiala’s caliber is. I believe it’s more likely we may have to add than Minnesota.

If the Devils add, they are making a grave mistake. Minnesota not only has to trade Fiala - and there's just no realistic scenario where they do not, absent them moving Zuccarello who has a full NMC and by all accounts is very happy there - they cannot take salary back at all. They're already basically capped out for next season. This severly limits the market for Fiala. And players of Fiala's ilk are not worth 6th overall picks, straight up, regardless.

I also didn’t hear the idea of the devils trading Fiala for the devils 1st. It’s not like he said that’s what was being discussed. He said the devils like Fiala. I’m not anchoring to anything. It just would make sense and Fitz has mentioned that he might be willing to move that pick. You’re just trying to bring up some random bias thing to downplay my opinion. Not necessary man. As I said, my original thoughts are that we might have to add to that, assuming we’re trading for him with a contract as good as lined up.

Oh okay, you just glazed over when reading that part of the thread. Fair enough, next time just point out which posts you did and didn't read.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Develop your middle 6 wingers internally on cost controlled contracts. Teams constantly chase middle 6 wingers off a couple hot seasons in free agency, and by and large they fall off and don’t live up to the contract. You’re just paying for past performance (see David Clarkson).

The Devils have so many options for effective middle six guys. If they’re spending assets and cap space, it should be for elite players to complement Jack and Nico.

True.

Although I think we should try to add an experienced top 6 winger who’s a good fit even if we can’t make a big splash like this.

But I agree the we don’t need to be chasing or paying a bunch of middle-6 or top 6 forwards at best who have had a good season.

 

[devilsblood]

That’s not that many players making over 7 million per year considering one of them will probably be worth 10+ as early as next season in actual value. Bratt and Nico will also be primed aged and worth what they’re paid. Hamilton remains to be seen.

The issue is when you are not getting value from the contracts you’re handing out. I don’t think the cap will be a huge problem with Holtz and Luke’s ELCs for the next few years. After that, we’ll see. That’s something literally every team has to deal with. I’m not concerned.

Looking at Sportrac. I see Tampa has 4 guys over $7 per in terms of adjusted cap hit, with 2 more guys slightly below. One of these is a goalie.

Florida has one guy over $7. That being Bob.

Carolina has 2 guys over that mark. 2 more over $6

Rag's have 2, with one more over $6.

Minny with 2. 3 more over 6.

We already have 3. With Bratt likely to be in the mix. Sev's will be pushing that mark as well. Fiala would be 6. I dunno seems like alot.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

If the Devils add, they are making a grave mistake. Minnesota not only has to trade Fiala - and there's just no realistic scenario where they do not, absent them moving Zuccarello who has a full NMC and by all accounts is very happy there - they cannot take salary back at all. They're already basically capped out for next season. This severly limits the market for Fiala. And players of Fiala's ilk are not worth 6th overall picks, straight up, regardless.



Oh okay, you just glazed over when reading that part of the thread. Fair enough, next time just point out which posts you did and didn't read.

I just completely disagree with your valuation of Fiala. Nor do I think Minnesota is at that point yet. They still have time and they can still work something out to make it fit cap wise but they’re gonna have to get rid of something.


And lol nope I read most if not all of it. You’re just being odd at this point and I’m not even sure what your point is. What are you trying to say?

 

[RSeen]

I assume we’ll know he’s interested in an extension, not sure he agrees to the specifics of a contract before a trade. Also 7 years is very optimistic goal for the term unless the AAV is pretty generous. (Which is why, while he’s an excellent player, I’d still hold firm on what assets I would spend on him.)

Buchnevich was traded on July 23rd & signed on July 27th for 4 years/5.8m.

Reinhart was traded on July 24th 2021 & signed on August 11th for 3 years/6.5m.

Jake Bean was traded on July 23rd 2021 & signed on July 29th for 3 years/2.33m

Matt Murray was traded on Oct 7th 2020 & signed on Oct 9th for 4 years/6.25m

Josh Anderson was traded on Oct 6th 2020 signed on Oct 8th for 7 years/5.5m (This understandably came together quickly because Anderson’s agent made it clear he was only signing a one year or seven year deal.)

The only day of signing I can think of was Seth Jones extension with Chicago but that is for 8 years/9.5m starting in 2022-23, so it’s easy to see how that got quickly agreed to.

Looking at this list, Fiala may have the highest value but I would think Reinhart is a strong comparable in terms of trade value. Reinhart did not return close to a top 5 or 6 pick and they were in comparable situations. Fiala is coming off a more productive year, but these looks like relatively comparable situations.

 

[TF1970]

I wouldn’t move that first rounder unless Jiricek/Nemec are both off the board. Which is probably going to be the case anyways.

 

[Eggtimer]

If it was assured that we can remove one or more of Johnson Tatar Zacha and add players like Nuke AND get the goalie we need , a decent defensive RHD then yes if we can get a good deal and not overpay , add an elite top 6 guy

 

[devilsblood]

The Av's have 3 guys over $7 and 2 more over $6.

I understand some of these don't include contracts to come, but even Wash only have 4 guys over 7. And no one else over $6. Pitt with 3 guys over $7, one more at $6. Boston with no one over $7, 4 guys over $6.

If Fiala is a $5x player then maybe this makes more sense. But definitely not much out there which suggests paying 6 skaters $7x is a sound strategy.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Looking at Sportrac. I see Tampa has 4 guys over $7 per in terms of adjusted cap hit, with 2 more guys slightly below. One of these is a goalie.

Florida has one guy over $7. That being Bob.

Carolina has 2 guys over that mark. 2 more over $6

Rag's have 2, with one more over $6.

Minny with 2. 2 more over 6.

We already have 3. With Bratt likely to be in the mix. Sev's will be pushing that mark as well. Fiala would be 6. I dunno seems like alot.

Okay I’ll help you out here.

Florida has 3 (Barkov starts 10 million extension next season and Giroux is on a much bigger contract but the Flyers retained a bunch of that)
Then they have 3 over 5 million with Reinhart just below 7. Plus Huberdeau is going to need a massive extension soon. They’ve also gotten really lucky (or been really smart)



Carolina also have another 4 over 5 million.


The Rangers are going into next season with 4 and Kreider who’s really close as well as Shesterkin who they’ve gotten really lucky with at 5 which is a ridiculous underpayment for what he’s doing.

Minnesota have 2 with 4 more over 5 (2 at 6) and over 12 million in dead money from Parise and Sutter buyouts.

We will have 3 going into next season although Nico is just over and non are near the 12 million Panarin is making.

 

[Triumph]

I just completely disagree with your valuation of Fiala. Nor do I think Minnesota is at that point yet. They still have time and they can still work something out to make it fit cap wise but they’re gonna have to get rid of something.

They are at ~$75M with Cam Talbot as their only goalie signed, 10 forwards, and 7 D. Bump that to ~$76M and 11 forwards and 7D. The alternative is trading Dumba. Also the cap hits only get worse in 2023-24 and 2024-25 and they have Boldy and Rossi's bonuses to worry about, so they want to try to leave some room under next year's cap if they can because otherwise even if the cap goes up slightly again in 2023-24, they will have already spent that increase and a bonus overage would only make it worse.

And lol nope I read most if not all of it. You’re just being odd at this point and I’m not even sure what your point is. What are you trying to say?

I am being very straightforward here. I am trying to say that if you read about a potential trade from an insider, even if that insider is speculating, it gives that potential trade weight it should not have. Maybe it wasn't posted here as coming from Marek, but it was said on the broadcast, so perhaps I'm conflating the two. Regardless, the 6th overall pick is not worth Kevin Fiala.

The Av's have 3 guys over $7 and 2 more over $6.

I understand some of these don't include contracts to come, but even Wash only have 4 guys over 7. And no one else over $6. Pitt with 3 guys over $7, one more at $6. Boston with no one over $7, 4 guys over $6.

If Fiala is a $5x player then maybe this makes more sense. But definitely not much out there which suggests paying 6 skaters $7x is a sound strategy.

How about instead of counting who gets more than an arbitrary number, you actually count up the total amount of what the top players are being paid?

 

[Eggtimer]

I agree that the Devils need Nuke/Niederreiter type players, but they can do both things. They can trade Fiala and add one or two UFA wingers, especially if Fitzy can get rid of Zacha, Johnsson or even Tatar. The Devils need three lines that can score, so there are room for additions.

It would be luxury to have forward group such as this.

Sharangovich-Hughes-Bratt
Fiala-Hischier-Niederreiter
Nuke-Mercer-Holtz/Zetterlund
Wood-McLeod-Bastian

Maybe this lineup isn't the most realistic outcome, and Mercer is probably better as a winger than a center. But you probably get the idea.

Oh god that looks deadly . Add Lybushkin and one or two of Shakir Okhotiuk Bahl (Smith used to try to recoup lost assets on the Fiala deal )
But ( this is a massive but) what do we do for a goalie? I can’t see an option that is one that isn’t going to cost a ton of $$$ .
It becomes very important to sign Bratt for a good deal , plus try to dump Johnson Tatar Zacha . There is no need for those type of players. We cannot go into next year with all three of those guys. I know I have beaten this to death but we need to get harder to play against. It’s too easy for teams to set up and continue a cycle in our D zone , can’t clear our zone way too often. I think it’s very important to improve in this area and I think it’s more important than adding a Fiala type right now. Maybe they get Fiala or that type then try working on the other parts but I’d feel better if we shored up other , bigger weaknesses first . Goaltending obviously #1 and heavier forwards / defensively sound RHD second.

 

[devilsblood]

Okay I’ll help you out here.

Florida has 3 (Barkov starts 10 million extension next season and Giroux is on a much bigger contract but the Flyers retained a bunch of that)
Then they have 3 over 5 million with Reinhart just below 7. Plus Huberdeau is going to need a massive extension soon. They’ve also gotten really lucky (or been really smart)



Carolina also have another 4 over 5 million.


The Rangers are going into next season with 4 and Kreider who’s really close as well as Shesterkin who they’ve gotten really lucky with at 5 which is a ridiculous underpayment for what he’s doing.

Minnesota have 2 with 4 more over 5 (2 at 6) and over 12 million in dead money from Parise and Sutter buyouts.

We will have 3 going into next season although Nico is just over and non are near the 12 million Panarin is making.

Aight but this goes back to what Fiala(and even Bratt and Sev's) are going to get paid.

If we are talking $5x per then sure, plenty of precedent there, but if Fiala(and Bratt and Sev's) get $7 then we'd lead the league in that dept, and that is without having the goal tending figured out.

How about instead of counting who gets more than an arbitrary number, you actually count up the total amount of what the top players are being paid?

Sounds like a lot of math. The floor is yours.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

The Av's have 3 guys over $7 and 2 more over $6.

I understand some of these don't include contracts to come, but even Wash only have 4 guys over 7. And no one else over $6. Pitt with 3 guys over $7, one more at $6. Boston with no one over $7, 4 guys over $6.

If Fiala is a $5x player then maybe this makes more sense. But definitely not much out there which suggests paying 6 guys $7x is a sound strategy.

We’re not gonna pay 6 guys over 7 million. Right now it’s Dougie, Hughes, and Nico barely. Bratt could just make the cutoff but could also fall a bit under it. Severson won’t get there. The only way we ever get to 6 guys over 7 million is 4 years from now when the cap is a bit higher if Bratt and Fiala get over 7 and than Luke Hughes does as well. At which point Nico, Dougie and probably Severson and maybe Bratt and Fiala depending on how long they sign will all be close to the end of their contracts if they’re still with us. I’d also bet that their will be other teams with that and it’s a fair bet that the cap will go up at least another 4-5 million.

We also don’t have 3 11 million dollar contracts like the leafs as well as a 7.5 million dollar one for Reilly, 2 other D over 5 and then Nylander at 7. Those 3, and Reilly alone cost more than our 6 guys over 7 would if everything works out perfectly in 4 years

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Aight but this goes back to what Fiala(and even Bratt and Sev's) are going to get paid.

If we are talking $5x per then sure, plenty of precedent there, but if Fiala(and Bratt and Sev's) get $7 then we'd lead the league in that dept, and that is without having the goal tending figured out.


Sounds like a lot of math. The floor is yours.

Sure even if we lead the league in that it wouldn’t be the most expensive. The leafs top 4 guys alone would be more expensive than our over 7 million guys. And Severson is not gonna get over 7 million from us IMO. Bratt might get close. It is kind of a random cutoff that means nothing. Bratt, Severson, and Fiala could get 6.75 and we’d only have 3 then. I know that’s not the point

 

[Triumph]

Sounds like a lot of math. The floor is yours.

Toronto only has 3 players making more than $7m this season. Sounds great by your reckoning! Except that their top 3 guys are all making $11M+ and their 4th highest paid player makes slightly less than $7M. In reality this means that their top 4 players make over $40M and with Rielly making $7.5M next season it means that their top 5 make ~$47.5, A Devils top 5 with Fiala and Bratt making a combined $15M still only brings us to $39.25M. And I don't think Fiala and Bratt will make that. Most importantly, though, all of those guys would be ostensibly locked up for a long time, well past 2024-25 when the cap is expected to finally rise significantly.

So yeah, the floor is mine, to make fun of your method. The Devils can fit Fiala into their cap plans, although it means that is basically it for big additions, anything else added besides a goalie means something has to get subtracted.

 

[devilsblood]

Looking ahead to next year the Devils also have a ton of guys on very cheap contracts. That includes multiple guys in our top 6, our 3rd line center, and our entire 4th line. Shara and Mercer for sure are not too far off from making more money. Boq or his replacement will take up a bigger portion of the cap as well. So yeah we have money coming off in Schneid's and Bernier but there is alot of spots which will be getting raises eventually.

 

[devilsblood]

Sure even if we lead the league in that it wouldn’t be the most expensive. The leafs top 4 guys alone would be more expensive than our over 7 million guys. And Severson is not gonna get over 7 million from us IMO. Bratt might get close. It is kind of a random cutoff that means nothing. Bratt, Severson, and Fiala could get 6.75 and we’d only have 3 then. I know that’s not the point

I was just following a line of conversation which put that mark at $7. I opened it up a bit to $6. Is it random? Sure, but the idea of "# of big contracts" is a legit concern. We'll be rather top heavy without having seen the playoffs let alone winning some playoff games.

Toronto only has 3 players making more than $7m this season. Sounds great by your reckoning! Except that their top 3 guys are all making $11M+ and their 4th highest paid player makes slightly less than $7M. In reality this means that their top 4 players make over $40M and with Rielly making $7.5M next season it means that their top 5 make ~$47.5, A Devils top 5 with Fiala and Bratt making a combined $15M still only brings us to $39.25M. And I don't think Fiala and Bratt will make that. Most importantly, though, all of those guys would be ostensibly locked up for a long time, well past 2024-25 when the cap is expected to finally rise significantly.

So yeah, the floor is mine, to make fun of your method. The Devils can fit Fiala into their cap plans, although it means that is basically it for big additions, anything else added besides a goalie means something has to get subtracted.

If you followed the discussion you'll see it wasn't my method.

But well done.......in providing one example.

 

[NJDfan86]

Toronto only has 3 players making more than $7m this season. Sounds great by your reckoning! Except that their top 3 guys are all making $11M+ and their 4th highest paid player makes slightly less than $7M. In reality this means that their top 4 players make over $40M and with Rielly making $7.5M next season it means that their top 5 make ~$47.5, A Devils top 5 with Fiala and Bratt making a combined $15M still only brings us to $39.25M. And I don't think Fiala and Bratt will make that. Most importantly, though, all of those guys would be ostensibly locked up for a long time, well past 2024-25 when the cap is expected to finally rise significantly.

So yeah, the floor is mine, to make fun of your method. The Devils can fit Fiala into their cap plans, although it means that is basically it for big additions, anything else added besides a goalie means something has to get subtracted.

And so here is the question for the people advocating for dealing an ELC or top 6 pick for Fiala - is that enough to build a true cup contender? I don’t believe so but at least this a more realistic take than “don’t worry about the cap”.