Was
I hope they don't flip the switch and start scoring only 1-2 goals in the regular season like that one year they had Drew Stafford and were scoring a ton of goals in the preseason.
We had the 15th best offense in 2017-18. We came out of the gate scoring as well, we had 67 goals in first 20 games, which is 3.35 G/GP.
Gibbons contributed a lot to the early scoring, scoring 12 goals in 30 games, then not scoring in 29 games before getting injured.
Bratt scored one goal in his last 30 games after scoring 12 goals in 44 games.
Boyle scored 11 of his 13 goals in his first 30 games.
Stafford did in fact score 8 of his 15 points in his first 14 games
Butcher was also shot out of a cannon, scoring 11 of his 44 points in his first 10 games.
A lot of the early fringy scoring by committee went away, that’s why Hall’s big playoff surge was so key.
Palmieri only played 62 games that season but he actually another big contributor to the second half push, he missed a lot of games early and scored 26 of his 44 points after January.
Zajac also only played 63 games but he also ended strong, scoring 19 of his 26 points in his last 30 games.
Nico was pretty steady through the year and finished strong with 21 points (10 goals) in his last 28 games. Wood was sort of steady until he petered off a bit at the end.
There were a couple other guys who got hot late: Coleman had a little scoring run late, with 10 points (7 goals) in his last 16 games. Noesen scored later in the year.
Our offense didn’t underperform, other than Palmieri missing 20 games really was a blow. Just because we scored 9 goals against Ottawa in the preseason, with Mike Condon in goal, or had two 4-1 wins against Washington, when Trotz isn’t working on winning games in the pre-season, didn’t change that we didn’t have much there beyond Hall, Palms and just the start of this youth wave that’s now maturing and gotten more populated.
I’m not worried about the offense 5v5, even though I’m not sold on Ruff’s systems until I see them in a real season. Hamilton and Tatar should help the power play but we likely have a bit of a lower offensive ceiling until our younger guys really start figuring out how to cash in on the power play.
I’m real concerned about the PK, but pretty sure we’re just f***ed there this season. No one wanted to jettison Nasreddine more than me, he simply benefited from having great personnel for the PK rather than arriving from the AHL as some PK savant we have to keep.
Lovejoy was an elite PK defenseman in 2016-17, and it’s him and Greene that were the heart of that unit.
Lovejoy was the best PK defenseman in 2018-19, leading in GA/60 shorthanded (with more than 150 minutes) even with ghastly goaltending in NJ. And his CA/60 was 1st overall, and completely bonkers. His xGA/60 was 5th overall. The dude was a PK god.
Greene was 10th in GA/60 shorthanded, his xGA/60 was 26th and his CA/60 was 34th in 2018-19. Which is really good but not Lovejoy good.
The best seasons by PK forwards in GA/60 (75 minutes minimum TOI) since 2017-18:
Brian Gibbons (165 minutes) 2017-18: - 0.434
xGA/60: -0.13
GF/60: -0.062
xGF/60: -0.13
CF/60: -3.47
CA/60: +0.81
Blake Coleman (155 minutes) 2019-20: -0.413
xGA/60: -0.245
GF/60: 0.098
xGF/60: 0.331
CF/60: +2.66
CA/60: -2.35
Pavel Zacha (132 minutes) 2018-19: -0.167
xGA/60: +0.446
GF/60: -0.124
xGF/60: -0.244
CF/60: -3.1
CA/60: -3.62
Kevin Rooney (78 minutes) 2018-19: -0.109
xGA/60: +0.055
GF/60: -0.153
xGF/60: -0.091
CF/60: -2.66
CA/60: +0.72
Travis Zajac (193 minutes) 2019-20: -0.107
xGA/60: -0.24
GF/60: -0.212
xGF/60: -0.099
CF/60: -2.31
CA/60: -7.79 (!)
Yegor Sharangovich (95 minutes) 2020-21: -0.082
xGA/60: +0.478 (go figure)
GF/60: -0.045
xGF/60: -0.105
CF/60: -1.82
CA/60: -0.36
Travis Zajac (214 minutes) 2018-19: -0.08
xGA/60: -0.599 (I’m really blaming Kinky then lol)
GF/60: +0.1
xGF/60:+0.035
CF/60: +1.61
CA/60: -7.18
Travis Zajac (79 minutes) 2020-21: -0.045
xGA/60: +0.882 (what a PK that season. sigh.)
GF/60: -0.243
xGF/60: -0.324
CF/60: -5.12
CA/60: +5.5
Pavel Zacha (132 minutes) 2019-20: -0.026
xGA/60: +0.166
GF/60: -0.036
xGF/60: +0.03
CF/60: -1.58
CA/60: +5.29
Kevin Rooney (102 minutes) 2019-20: -0.016
xGA/60: +0.119
GF/60: -0.047
xGF/60: -0.158
CF/60: -2.41
CA/60: +5.7
Travis Zajac (145 minutes) 2017-18: +0.067
xGA/60: +0.14
GF/60: -0.103
xGF/60: -0.143
CF/60: -0.03
CA/60: -7.79
Jesper Bratt (78 minutes) 2017-18: +0.152
xGA/60: -0.218
GF/60: -0.091
xGF/60: -0.144
CF/60: -2.28
CA/60: -2.25
Blake Coleman (169 minutes) 2017-18: +0.169
xGA/60: -0.122
GF/60: +0.086
xGF/60: +0.118
CF/60: -1.18
CA/60: -0.8
Brian Boyle (92 minutes) 2018-19: +0.226
xGA/60: -0.121
GF/60: -0.123
xGF/60: -0.237
CF/60: -3.83
CA/60: +0.25
Blake Coleman (206 minutes) 2017-18: +0.23
xGA/60: +0.141
GF/60: -0.004
xGF/60: +0.058
CF/60: +2.72
CA/60: +1.29
Mikey McLeod (80 minutes) 2020-21: +0.457
xGA/60: +0.122
GF/60: -0.122
xGF/60: -0.13
CF/60: -2.48
CA/60: +3.94
edit: I hit post accidentally while I was still typing crap in so I didn’t actually make a conclusion here. *shrug*
My point was going to be that defensemen are really the heart of the PK and the loss of Lovejoy and then Greene were huge blows. And Zajac and Coleman, while varying in results, were the heart of forward unit. PK is a personnel and the more you do it by committee, the more people there are to screw it up. Ideally, you do want big minute top PK guys.
Who the hell even knows which defensemen are going to carry the load this year, Vatanen and Kulikov were our best PKers last season. Obviously Graves will play PK.