Devils 2021-22 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XII

[Triumph]

This is the thing I don’t get with the “things are so much better than before and it’s due to better drafting!” crowd. I don’t think the drafting has been much better…the real difference is that we got the luxury of higher picks for several consecutive years, for the first time in decades. The result of that luxury has been a first overall that’s more on the level of a later first round pick, another first overall with some promise of being a ppg player but far from proving he’s a legit game breaker, a sixth rounder who’s basically the only prospect that has surpassed expectations, a bunch of first rounders who have not lived up to expectations and/or appear to be busts, and a bunch of others who show some promise of being average but are clearly nothing special.

The drafting is unquestionably better. It's not fantastic - Shero's late-round picks are way better than Fitzgerald's and I am not quite sure why - but that won't be brought home to roost in several years. If you can't see how it's better, that's on you. If you can't see how Yegor Sharangovich, a player drafted in the 5th round who has scored 24 goals in 86 games 3 years after being drafted is better than any pick made by Conte and co in the 5th round and later in 10 drafts, and probably more like 20? This is on you.

I have a hard time believing that Conte and company would have done significantly worse.

Then you're not paying attention. You know what, let's get into the weeds here so you can disappear -

2016: McLeod's a miss, Bratt's a star. 5 players who have played more than 10 games in the NHL, 4 players dealt as assets in trade. This is critical because Lou also tended to hold on to everybody until they lost any value, which is fine but sometimes players have to be sold early.
2017: Zetterlund and Walsh currently 2 of the best players in the AHL, Studenic also is a solid AHLer. Some misses for sure, but sometimes you gotta draft a social media influencer in the 4th round
2018: Sharangovich looks good, Schmid has been up and down. Some definite big misses but some big hits as well
2019: So far Brady and Pasic are the only players who appear to be superbusts. Misyul might never come over. Everybody else appears to have a pro career in North America - Okhotiuk, Vukojevic, Clarke, Thompson, McCarthy, Gritsyuk, Moynihan. This is a great draft.

As I said 2020 and 2021 are much dicier in the later rounds. So yeah, I agree Conte and company could've matched that performance.

This rebuild has been painfully ineffective and rudderless. You could argue it’s better to have a bad team with average prospects then it is to have a bad team with a non-existent farm system like we did six years ago…but that becomes kind of meaningless when several years go by and that hasn’t resulted in the team playing better.

The biggest issue right now is in net, which again, the Devils basically did not draft goalies in the 10 years before Conte exited. Sorokin and Shesterkin were drafted the year before Lou and Conte left. Schmid and Daws look promising, Blackwood looked good before the injuries. They tried to fix it with Bernier and they'll have to try again.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Yeah, Lou by himself wouldn't do anything. We'd need to find a veteran coach with a winning pedigree. Also, the team needs some guys like Brylin, Pandolfo, and Madden. Lou got lambasted on this site for signing Matt Martin and Leo Komarov but those helped steady what was a horrible defensive team. Yes the Komarov contract turned bad eventually, but he was an underrated signing for a bit there.

That's Fitz's biggest failing this season IMO - the failure to bring in the right vets for the bottom 6.

You do not have to agree with their strategy, but David Blitzer came on between periods of the Flyers game earlier this year and said the team was following a medium to long term plan. You sign veteran bottom 6's to contracts that could turn bad if you are in "win now" mode.

 

[vtdevils2k]

From the updated schedule to what the team could do to improve their depth at the winger position, @MattLoug, @SamiKasan and @ChicoReschNJD discuss it all in the latest 3-on-3.
#NJDevils | @PlayUp_US


Chico and Matt saying what a lot of us have been saying...the wingers are a big issue and the team needs help.

The Zacha's etc have had their time...not working anymore.

 

[The Devil In I]

We have a significant amount of young players either already contributing to or just breaking into the NHL, and an AHL team with a ton of 22 and under players that is one of the best teams in the AHL. Our drafting is miles better, though yes not flawless by any means.

 

[JrFischer54]

This is the thing I don’t get with the “things are so much better than before and it’s due to better drafting!” crowd. I don’t think the drafting has been much better…the real difference is that we got the luxury of higher picks for several consecutive years, for the first time in decades. The result of that luxury has been a first overall that’s more on the level of a later first round pick, another first overall with some promise of being a ppg player but far from proving he’s a legit game breaker, a sixth rounder who’s basically the only prospect that has surpassed expectations, a bunch of first rounders who have not lived up to expectations and/or appear to be busts, and a bunch of others who show some promise of being average but are clearly nothing special.

I have a hard time believing that Conte and company would have done significantly worse.

This rebuild has been painfully ineffective and rudderless. You could argue it’s better to have a bad team with average prospects then it is to have a bad team with a non-existent farm system like we did six years ago…but that becomes kind of meaningless when several years go by and that hasn’t resulted in the team playing better.

thats why i wonder if the problem is the development and coaching then compared to the drafting/scouting. how can all these kids not live up to the draft potential?

 

[NjdPass]

Yeah, lets be real....we need to stop trying to win on trades or use the whole.. "we are going to take advantage of our cap and weaponize it". We are weaponizing our cap on B players in HOPE they will be better. Did this with Johnsson, Murray and even Siegenthal.

We need real proven guys that have shown to put numbers up and play a competitive game. Dougie is the first person this team has brought in since Kovy/Hall to elevate this team. Hall just had one breakout year and hasnt been that elite since.

It also seems that issues are arising when another gets solved. Goaltending was good the first seven games, while our D was pretty bad....Now our goaltending is awful.

Question is, do we ride Blackwood or do our best to beef up our D to support the goalie. Remember guys, Marty in 2012 was just average when we made it to the finals.

Id go out there and trade for a Chychrun and Crouse... Said it a couple weeks ago. I would do Blackwood/Smith (either or), Zacha, First and a B prospect.

IM a big Zacha guy, but Crouse will bring more toughness and same point production as Zacha. Smith is looking replicable with Bahl or Walsh. With a D core of Dougie, Chychrun, Sevo, Graves as a top four..... I think we could manage the D zone better.

 

[JrFischer54]

It's not that simple to me. As noted, they've brought in some vets. The problem is they haven't brought in mean enough vets. They need a forward who every shift in the offensive end stands with his butt in the goalie's face and then pushes back hard when the defender comes over to push him. They need a forward to skate hard to the net every shift and at times take out the goalie as an incidental part of the play. Vets like Tatar are established but more of the same of what the team already has. Hamilton is very good but soft. Graves is inconsistent. At times he hits guys and at times he doesn't. Subban can't skate well enough to really play physically anymore. Bringing in established vets who are undersized and want to dipsy doodle with the puck isn't the answer, but finding a Mark Messier type isn't easy.

i kinda agree with this the vets we have brought in mojo mango hamilton that guy we traded from the rangers. they are all soft players basically how these kids will turn out in 5 years time to be soft veteran players which is fine but you are just mixing soft young kids with soft old vets. that doesn't mean go and sign a ryan reaves but someone with some snarl problem is those guys are hard to come by.

 

[guitarguyvic]

The drafting is unquestionably better. It's not fantastic - Shero's late-round picks are way better than Fitzgerald's and I am not quite sure why - but that won't be brought home to roost in several years. If you can't see how it's better, that's on you. If you can't see how Yegor Sharangovich, a player drafted in the 5th round who has scored 24 goals in 86 games 3 years after being drafted is better than any pick made by Conte and co in the 5th round and later in 10 drafts, and probably more like 20? This is on you.



Then you're not paying attention. You know what, let's get into the weeds here so you can disappear -

2016: McLeod's a miss, Bratt's a star. 5 players who have played more than 10 games in the NHL, 4 players dealt as assets in trade. This is critical because Lou also tended to hold on to everybody until they lost any value, which is fine but sometimes players have to be sold early.
2017: Zetterlund and Walsh currently 2 of the best players in the AHL, Studenic also is a solid AHLer. Some misses for sure, but sometimes you gotta draft a social media influencer in the 4th round
2018: Sharangovich looks good, Schmid has been up and down. Some definite big misses but some big hits as well
2019: So far Brady and Pasic are the only players who appear to be superbusts. Misyul might never come over. Everybody else appears to have a pro career in North America - Okhotiuk, Vukojevic, Clarke, Thompson, McCarthy, Gritsyuk, Moynihan. This is a great draft.

As I said 2020 and 2021 are much dicier in the later rounds. So yeah, I agree Conte and company could've matched that performance.



The biggest issue right now is in net, which again, the Devils basically did not draft goalies in the 10 years before Conte exited. Sorokin and Shesterkin were drafted the year before Lou and Conte left. Schmid and Daws look promising, Blackwood looked good before the injuries. They tried to fix it with Bernier and they'll have to try again.

I get it...technically speaking the drafting is better. But what's the fundamental difference between drafting complete busts vs. guys that carve out decent AHL careers or play 100 games in the NHL before flaming out? Neither is having a significant impact on the quality of the NHL team.

Between 2005-2015, Conte and company had just three picks in the top 20. One turned out to be a career NHL middle pairing defenseman. The other is Zacha who is NHL level talent despite not living up to expectations (and would certainly meet your criteria for a successful pick). The third was Bergfors who made no discernible impact at the NHL level (however it should be noted was a central piece in the trade for Kovie).

Since then, the Devils have had 8 picks in the top 20. Two of those eight were first overalls. The other six consist of one player who looks to be at minimum a very good top six player, a fourth line NHL player, a defenseman who looks like he might be a middle pairing guy but TBD, one who has been called up a couple of times but has not appeared to be anything special so far, and two others who are doing OK in the minors but haven't been called up yet and again no signs of them being anything special so far.

This regime has had three times as many top 20 picks as their predecessors but the impact at the NHL level certainly isn't more than than three times as good. Bratt as a sixth round pick is the only one that really sticks out as having exceeded expectations.

So overall is this better than Conte and company? I mean, I guess technically factoring in all picks and the # of professional games they've played. But all I really care about as a fan of the NHL team is how this translates to a better product for the NHL Devils...and the difference between the two regimes in that regard has not been as big as you guys make it out to be, not in the context of how many high draft picks this regime has been gifted (including two first overalls).

 

[JrFischer54]

Conte and his scouts were a horror show for about a 15-year period when it came to drafting Euro players, in 1995 we drafted Petr Sykora and the next successful Euro pick was probably Larsson in 2011, in between those two players Conte and Co (including Lou) missed on 38 consecutive Euro selections including four first rounders and 10 second rounders, they went 0-14 in the first two rounds with Euro players in that time period. Think about that.

Yeah, I think one can confidently say the drafting has been MUCH better under Shero and Fitz then it was under Lou and Conte.

has it? i mean we are going to probably finish bottom 5 again. so thats how many times since conte and lou left? i use to believe that the scouting was definitely better but now i'm starting to think because every june i come here on draft day and drink the kool-aid you guys post. outside jack and nico and bratt what player has really done anything that was drafted by the team? i'll go a little further what players have met or exceeded their draft status? before people mention zacha

 

[HischierSeDgewOrk]

I'm tired of only having the draft to look forward to after the new year. This is really a broken record. Not even sure how to fix it. We seem to have some nice pieces...but are they just not fitting together? Do we need a new coach/voice? Big shakeup? Minor tinkers?

 

[Call Me Al]

I'm tired of only having the draft to look forward to after the new year. This is really a broken record. Not even sure how to fix it. We seem to have some nice pieces...but are they just not fitting together? Do we need a new coach/voice? Big shakeup? Minor tinkers?

you fix it by getting an average level goalie and a coach that holds people accountable and gets the most out of his players. we’re not far off but these are big pieces

 

[guitarguyvic]

has it? i mean we are going to probably finish bottom 5 again. so thats how many times since conte and lou left? i use to believe that the scouting was definitely better but now i'm starting to think because every june i come here on draft day and drink the kool-aid you guys post. outside jack and nico and bratt what player has really done anything that was drafted by the team? i'll go a little further what players have met or exceeded their draft status? before people mention zacha

Using AHL success or other benchmarks outside the context of NHL impact is disingenuous to me. No one actually gives a shit about what individual players are doing if it's not positively impacting the big club. They could draft the Gretzky of the AHL...and that would technically be better than drafting a bust...but if that guy doesn't actually become a good player for the NHL team, who cares? Seriously.

 

[Azathoth]

has it? i mean we are going to probably finish bottom 5 again. so thats how many times since conte and lou left? i use to believe that the scouting was definitely better but now i'm starting to think because every june i come here on draft day and drink the kool-aid you guys post. outside jack and nico and bratt what player has really done anything that was drafted by the team? i'll go a little further what players have met or exceeded their draft status? before people mention zacha

Don't you sort of need to qualify this a little bit, as the expectations of players drafted outside of maybe the top 10 is a bit nebulous? Zacha and Mcleod have certainly not met their expectations. I'd say Jack and Nico have met their expectations (though I know some will disagree). Bratt has exceeded. I'd say Sharangovich as exceeded given his draft position. Bastian has probably met expectations. Smith is TBD. Mercer has certainly exceeded expectations. Guys like Joey Anderson, Maltsev etc did their parts by netting us nhl level players.

 

[My3Sons]

you fix it by getting an average level goalie and a coach that holds people accountable and gets the most out of his players. we’re not far off but these are big pieces

There's also a team toughness element that has to be added to the top six. Nico can't be the only one there that will take a hit to make a play and be at least decently hard to play against when he doesn't have the puck. I can live with Jack and Bratt being on the smaller side and they are competitive in their own way but you need some guys to play with some snarl as someone else put it. Hopefully someone or better yet, someones, that can stand up for themselves and others and create some space and be a bigger frame to go along with it. That will go a long way towards making the team harder to play against and thus lead to more wins in close games or fewer games where the score gets away from the team.

 

[NJDfan86]

Using AHL success or other benchmarks outside the context of NHL impact is disingenuous to me. No one actually gives a shit about what individual players are doing if it's not positively impacting the big club. They could draft the Gretzky of the AHL...and that would technically be better than drafting a bust...but if that guy doesn't actually become a good player for the NHL team, who cares? Seriously.

Context - If you have a young and successful AHL team that means you are identifying talent, and then molding that talent into good players. It is a sign of improvement in scouting and drafting.

Having a team of 30 year olds dominating the AHL isn't useful, but having young players like Holtz, Zetterlund, Clark, Walsh, Daws, Schmid, etc. playing well on a team playing well is most certainly a great sign. The might not have seized roles yet, but you will likely have a few of them become good NHL regulars. Not everyone follows the same development paths.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Context - If you have a young and successful AHL team that means you are identifying talent, and then molding that talent into good players. It is a sign of improvement in scouting and drafting.

Having a team of 30 year olds dominating the AHL isn't useful, but having young players like Holtz, Zetterlund, Clark, Walsh, Daws, Schmid, etc. playing well on a team playing well is most certainly a great sign. The might not have seized roles yet, but you will likely have a few of them become good NHL regulars.

It's been a few years of people saying this and for the most part, it hasn't panned out this way. And even if it does...well context as you say...two first overalls, three times as many top 20 picks as the previous regime, more overall picks than the previous regime...if all we get out of it are a few NHL regulars who meet their minimum draft expectations...that's not a significant improvement and it's not likely to result in a substantial increase in NHL wins.

 

[AfroThunder396]

McLeod and Zacha suck and were both bad picks. I really don't know how anyone can question any of our other 1sts we've taken in the post-Lou era.

Nico was unquestionably the correct choice over Patrick, and while he's certainly not the best player from that draft he's likely the best center. Jack was easily the correct choice over Kakko and right now is looking like the best player from that draft.

Smith has some pretty obvious flaws, but if he didn't have flaws he wouldn't have been available at #17. And looking back at that draft, it's really hard to pinpoint who exactly we should have taken instead, especially how considering how desperate we were for defensemen at the time. He's 16th in GP and 13th in points from that draft (7th and 5th among defensemen). Rasmus Sandin, maybe? Smith has been better than both the guys the Rangers took.

Evaluating 2020 and 2021 - where half of our firsts have come from - is still wayyyy too early. That being said - Mercer is already excelling in the NHL and Luke looks to be an outstanding pick. Holtz is still developing but keep in mind he doesn't turn 20 for three more days. Shakir is doing fantastic for a teenager in the KHL, still not sure if he was the best player available at that pick but anyone who said he wasn't a legitimate prospect is just wrong. The only real question mark is Stillman, but given he played on the worst team in the OHL and had some injuries I'm willing to be give him another year before evaluating his play

 

[Triumph]

I get it...technically speaking the drafting is better. But what's the fundamental difference between drafting complete busts vs. guys that carve out decent AHL careers or play 100 games in the NHL before flaming out? Neither is having a significant impact on the quality of the NHL team.

It helps to evaluate the drafters. If you're just going to go on regular NHL player or not, you've reduced your data set significantly - it's the same idea why I like looking at shots on goal in addition to goals. Yeah, the goals are what win games, but if you're not getting enough shots on goal, you will probably score fewer goals. When you take a player like Derek Rodwell in the 5th round in 2009, what is your process? How did you arrive at that player being the best selection at that spot?

Between 2005-2015, Conte and company had just three picks in the top 20. One turned out to be a career NHL middle pairing defenseman. The other is Zacha who is NHL level talent despite not living up to expectations (and would certainly meet your criteria for a successful pick). The third was Bergfors who made no discernible impact at the NHL level (however it should be noted was a central piece in the trade for Kovie).

I only mentioned McLeod in breaking down the picks, and I shouldn't've even done that. The reason I omitted 1st round picks is because I knew this would be the take. My criteria by the way is not just 'oh, that's a successful pick, they made the NHL'. I'm looking at everything. So in one context, Larsson is a successful pick, but in the context of almost everyone drafted immediately after him was better, I'm not so sure. Zacha was obviously not a good selection at the time.

Since then, the Devils have had 8 picks in the top 20. Two of those eight were first overalls. The other six consist of one player who looks to be at minimum a very good top six player, a fourth line NHL player, a defenseman who looks like he might be a middle pairing guy but TBD, one who has been called up a couple of times but has not appeared to be anything special so far, and two others who are doing OK in the minors but haven't been called up yet and again no signs of them being anything special so far.

Yes, these players, none of whom have had their 24th birthday, are looking this way.

This regime has had three times as many top 20 picks as their predecessors but the impact at the NHL level certainly isn't more than than three times as good. Bratt as a sixth round pick is the only one that really sticks out as having exceeded expectations.

This is absurd, you have absolutely no idea what the timelines for players are. Mercer is already looking like a better player than any of the 3 Conte selections in the top 20 and better than any Conte 1st round pick since Zajac. Nobody hits on all of their picks. They're educated guesses and sometimes they're uneducated guesses.

So overall is this better than Conte and company? I mean, I guess technically factoring in all picks and the # of professional games they've played. But all I really care about as a fan of the NHL team is how this translates to a better product for the NHL Devils...and the difference between the two regimes in that regard has not been as big as you guys make it out to be, not in the context of how many high draft picks this regime has been gifted (including two first overalls).

It is much bigger because the Devils didn't draft a star player between Parise and Bratt. I know defending Conte is your thing, and he did have more success towards the end than he did between 2006-2010, but you've got to get star players, and the Devils finally have some, and Mercer might be another.

 

[JrFischer54]

Don't you sort of need to qualify this a little bit, as the expectations of players drafted outside of maybe the top 10 is a bit nebulous? Zacha and Mcleod have certainly not met their expectations. I'd say Jack and Nico have met their expectations (though I know some will disagree). Bratt has exceeded. I'd say Sharangovich as exceeded given his draft position. Bastian has probably met expectations. Smith is TBD. Mercer has certainly exceeded expectations. Guys like Joey Anderson, Maltsev etc did their parts by netting us nhl level players.

jury is still out on mercer hes having a great year but lets see what he does next year. sharangovich had a great season last season and flamed out this season. anderson isn't even in the nhl anymore is he? hes definitely a bust if the biggest contribution to us is being traded.

 

[NJDfan86]

It's been a few years of people saying this and for the most part, it hasn't panned out this way. And even if it does...well context as you say...two first overalls, three times as many top 20 picks as the previous regime, more overall picks than the previous regime...if all we get out of it are a few NHL regulars who meet their minimum draft expectations...that's not a significant improvement and it's not likely to result in a substantial increase in NHL wins.

It hasn't been a few years - we haven't had prospects of this quality playing for a winning AHL team in a long time. When is the last time we had a Holtz putting up PPG in the AHL?

As for your quip about the draft "context" - Holtz is the only 1st rounder we drafted on that team (Foote was late 1st rounder) and he just turned 20 and has 32 games on NHL sized ice. Most of the other young talent on Utica were 2nd and later draft picks. The minimum draft expectations for anyone outside of the 1st round isn't even an NHL regular.

 

[None Shall Pass]

I think we need a hard-ass coach to start whipping these kids into trying harder.

 

[GameSeven]

I think we need a hard-ass coach to start whipping these kids into trying harder.

In before...

 

[NJDfan86]

jury is still out on mercer hes having a great year but lets see what he does next year. sharangovich had a great season last season and flamed out this season. anderson isn't even in the nhl anymore is he? hes definitely a bust if the biggest contribution to us is being traded.

I appreciate that this is message board and everyone is frustrated - but saying flippant things like "Sharangovich flamed out this season" is ridiculous. Would you like to seen growth from him this year? Absolutely. He is still playing at a near 40 point pace as a "Sophomore" and has 24 goals and 45 points in 86 games in his career. Hard to ask for much more from a 5th round pick.

 

[Azathoth]

jury is still out on mercer hes having a great year but lets see what he does next year. sharangovich had a great season last season and flamed out this season. anderson isn't even in the nhl anymore is he? hes definitely a bust if the biggest contribution to us is being traded.

Fair enough on Mercer he could definitely fall off a cliff next year but I'd consider him exceeding expectations because how many 1st round picks outside of maybe the top5 get to play in the NHL in their D+2 years? I don't agree that Shara has flamed out although his second year has been disappointing, but viewed through the lens of him being a 5th round pick in 2018 I'd say he has exceeded the expectations of a 5th round draft pick. Same thing with the guys that were traded, they played well enough to be traded for legit NHLers so that is a win for the team.