Devils 2021-22 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XII

[guitarguyvic]

It helps to evaluate the drafters. If you're just going to go on regular NHL player or not, you've reduced your data set significantly - it's the same idea why I like looking at shots on goal in addition to goals. Yeah, the goals are what win games, but if you're not getting enough shots on goal, you will probably score fewer goals. When you take a player like Derek Rodwell in the 5th round in 2009, what is your process? How did you arrive at that player being the best selection at that spot?



I only mentioned McLeod in breaking down the picks, and I shouldn't've even done that. The reason I omitted 1st round picks is because I knew this would be the take. My criteria by the way is not just 'oh, that's a successful pick, they made the NHL'. I'm looking at everything. So in one context, Larsson is a successful pick, but in the context of almost everyone drafted immediately after him was better, I'm not so sure. Zacha was obviously not a good selection at the time.



Yes, these players, none of whom have had their 24th birthday, are looking this way.



This is absurd, you have absolutely no idea what the timelines for players are. Mercer is already looking like a better player than any of the 3 Conte selections in the top 20 and better than any Conte 1st round pick since Zajac. Nobody hits on all of their picks. They're educated guesses and sometimes they're uneducated guesses.



It is much bigger because the Devils didn't draft a star player between Parise and Bratt. I know defending Conte is your thing, and he did have more success towards the end than he did between 2006-2010, but you've got to get star players, and the Devils finally have some, and Mercer might be another.

The only thing this is proving is that this all way more subjective than folks like you ever let on. I'm not intentionally making an effort to defend Conte...I'm defending the idea that this regime's draft success has been overblown. At minimum they certainly haven't exceeded expectations given the quantity of picks and quality of draft position.

 

[AfroThunder396]

It's very dishonest to say "you can't blame Lou and Conte, they weren't picking in the top-20" while at the same time saying "why the hell aren't these 5th round picks Shero made doing better."

 

[guitarguyvic]

IIt is much bigger because the Devils didn't draft a star player between Parise and Bratt. I know defending Conte is your thing, and he did have more success towards the end than he did between 2006-2010, but you've got to get star players, and the Devils finally have some, and Mercer might be another.

jfc

You guys are always harping on context yet statements like these completely lack it. You don't have to be historically bad at drafting to miss out on a star player when you only pick in the top 10 of the draft twice in a decade.

And of course, there's bad luck. Which we apparently have oodles of year after year after year when it comes to player performance, but it's only cited as a side note when it comes to drafting pre-Shero.

 

[Patrik26]

Sadly, this is what the people who run these accounts are paid to do.

Our account does the same thing.

Childish comes to mind.

 

[Triumph]

The only thing this is proving is that this all way more subjective than folks like you ever let on. I'm not intentionally making an effort to defend Conte...I'm defending the idea that this regime's draft success has been overblown. At minimum they certainly haven't exceeded expectations given the quantity of picks and quality of draft position.

Disappearing would've been better than this generic statement of nothing.

If this regime's draft success has been overblown, it is only in relation to the previous regime, which saw in 18 seasons, these players drafted in the 3rd round or below to become regular NHL players: Fayne, Halischuk, Henrique, Coleman, Kerfoot, Wood.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

 

[My3Sons]

It helps to evaluate the drafters. If you're just going to go on regular NHL player or not, you've reduced your data set significantly - it's the same idea why I like looking at shots on goal in addition to goals. Yeah, the goals are what win games, but if you're not getting enough shots on goal, you will probably score fewer goals. When you take a player like Derek Rodwell in the 5th round in 2009, what is your process? How did you arrive at that player being the best selection at that spot? .

obviously his name.

 

[Triumph]

You guys are always harping on context yet statements like these completely lack it. You don't have to be historically bad at drafting to miss out on a star player when you only pick in the top 10 of the draft twice in a decade.

In a given year, absolutely. I don't even think Conte is historically bad at drafting in his dotage, he was just poor, but even if you are bad, you are going to get some hits. Most drafters are looking for the same things. As I've said over and over again, the Devils were seldom giving themselves a chance. They drafted too many low-upside players.

And of course, there's bad luck. Which we apparently have oodles of year after year after year when it comes to player performance, but it's only cited as a side note when it comes to drafting pre-Shero.

This is goalpost shifting. Again, you don't want to go pick by pick with me, you can only speak in generic terms, but the Devils passed on loads of players who became stars. Most teams did, that's how it goes, but not to get one? Hard to do without a bad process.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

The only thing this is proving is that this all way more subjective than folks like you ever let on. I'm not intentionally making an effort to defend Conte...I'm defending the idea that this regime's draft success has been overblown. At minimum they certainly haven't exceeded expectations given the quantity of picks and quality of draft position.

It's too early to say anything really, but the Mercer pick looks like a home run. Holtz and L. Hughes are trending nicely for where they were taken. Mukhamdullin and Stillman were off the board picks, Mukhamdullin is trending well but Stillman isn't. The rest of the picks after that...what can you say really? There were some wild picks in terms of "consensus" but TBD.

My complaints re: Fitz was that he traded so many picks away for roster players, but Graves and Siegenthaler have been providing great value, both trades look like good moves (without knowing how he'd address the defense in FA otherwise). I don't know if I can really criticize how he's handled the draft at all based on early returns given Mercer is so far ahead of where an 18th overall pick should be expected to be. I'm still a bit peeved by the Stillman pick tbh, but overall things look quite good in terms of converting draft capital into useful players.

 

[My3Sons]

The only thing this is proving is that this all way more subjective than folks like you ever let on. I'm not intentionally making an effort to defend Conte...I'm defending the idea that this regime's draft success has been overblown. At minimum they certainly haven't exceeded expectations given the quantity of picks and quality of draft position.

to be fair, you have to define the regime. At this point they are on the second post Lou regime. Shero and Fitz look to have very different philosophies in drafting. It’s too early to praise or fault Fitz beyond maybe the Mercer pick paying early dividends.

 

[Patrik26]

It's not that simple to me. As noted, they've brought in some vets. The problem is they haven't brought in mean enough vets. They need a forward who every shift in the offensive end stands with his butt in the goalie's face and then pushes back hard when the defender comes over to push him. They need a forward to skate hard to the net every shift and at times take out the goalie as an incidental part of the play. Vets like Tatar are established but more of the same of what the team already has. Hamilton is very good but soft. Graves is inconsistent. At times he hits guys and at times he doesn't. Subban can't skate well enough to really play physically anymore. Bringing in established vets who are undersized and want to dipsy doodle with the puck isn't the answer, but finding a Mark Messier type isn't easy.

Doesn't even need to be on the Messier level. Brian Boyle wasn't (and isn't) a Messier, but he would park his big ass in front of the net and made things difficult. Who exactly does that right now? Bastian maybe from time to time? That's about it. Finesse is nice. Finesse alone sucks.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Disappearing would've been better than this generic statement of nothing.

If this regime's draft success has been overblown, it is only in relation to the previous regime,

I'm not sure this is what you intended to say, because that's exactly what I'm saying...

which saw in 18 seasons, these players drafted in the 3rd round or below to become regular NHL players: Fayne, Halischuk, Henrique, Coleman, Kerfoot, Wood.

This is rather disingenuous when you don't mention that under this current regime, we have only 2 players drafted that late who became NHL regulars (one of whom may very well wind up not playing anywhere near as many NHL games as any of those cited players have) and it's still too early to determine what all the rest are.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

 

[guitarguyvic]

to be fair, you have to define the regime. At this point they are on the second post Lou regime. Shero and Fitz look to have very different philosophies in drafting. It’s too early to praise or fault Fitz beyond maybe the Mercer pick paying early dividends.

This is fair...which is kind of why I'm not singling out Fitz per se.
That being said, was there really any turnover in terms of the scouting team after Shero was fired?

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

On the roster, the Devils have two first overall pick centers, one absolute draft steal first line winger, a home run late first in Mercer, a high pick in Zacha who is probably a good NHLer on a team that doesn’t need him to be a star, a steal of a trade acquisition in Siegs, a highly touted potential top-4 D in Smith, a clear cut top-4 in Severson, and an assortment of young-to-youngish wingers with potential. Despite that, the Devils still have a very deep farm system loaded with potential bottom-9 forwards and bottom-4 defensemen. All this was done with draft capital.

To point to the late Lou/Conte era and say “that’s what we need more of” is some of the most nonsensical straw-grasping i’ve ever seen on this board. Im sure that’s coming off more rude than i mean, but it’s baffling to me. Anyone who’d rather have a decade of Josefsons and Quennevilles in the first round and Mauro Jorgs and Blake Pietilas in the later rounds has to be trolling.

EDIT: The point of this post is not to delineate between different GM’s moves, as obviously there’s an assortment in the final product. The point is that the Devils are clearly in better shape right now than theyve been in a LONG time, on every front.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

As much as I hate to say it, I think John Tortorella is exactly what this team needs.

Hire him before someone else does.

 

[My3Sons]

This is fair...which is kind of why I'm not singling out Fitz per se.
That being said, was there really any turnover in terms of the scouting team after Shero was fired?

I don’t know about the scouts but there seems to be a different philosophy between Shero and Fitz. I think Fitz will draft more to what your posts suggest to me you’d like to see. He values competitive nature more than Shero who basically just want for speed and skill. I’m happy with Fitz’s first rounders but several of his lower round picks don’t make much sense to me in context. The Czech goalie looks like a smart pick but why oick more left handed defenders like Vilen or Edwards? Did they really stand out that much? Why pick another small guy like Baumgartner?

 

[jkrdevil]

In before...

I’m at the point where I’m not sure Torts is crazy enough. At this point I want Kevin Constantine level crazy as punishment.

 

[The Devil In I]

Judging the 2020 and 2021 draft picks today and saying they're not much is like judging the Zajac pick in January 2006 and saying it wasn't a good pick because he's not in the NHL yet, that's how early it is.

 

[Guadana]

Sorry, guys, but I cant hate the team. My eye test, stats (shots, 5 on 5 goals, sv%) advanced stats(GF, corsi, etc) talk to me that devils are goin in the right direction. There are not so many consistency, we must fix here and there, but goaltending makes the biggest difference. Maybe even good goaltender didnt safe us against arizona, because goalies cant save from 3rd and 4th goal, but if we have even avarage goaltending, the only we could say after this game - that svcks, we were unlucky, they create 3 good high dangerous chances, a couple of players made mistakes, sh1t happened., lets go to the next game and try to be more focuse in defensive zone. Devils were good in this game. Some players could be better, some must be replaced. But avarage or good goaltending will make this team much better and confident.

The real thing is - will Fitz do something and even do he has even an option to do. Blackwood have a long rest before arizona game. He just didn`t focuse. I`m not tellin we will play on Hurricanes\tampa level with Vasilevskiy(we will not have him), but with avarage goaltending we can fight for wild card.

 

[guitarguyvic]

On the roster, the Devils have two first overall pick centers

These are acquired by having god awful seasons and really good luck. If you don't get an NHL level player there, it's either due to really bad luck or a horrible draft decision. Our first overalls are good players, but anyone being honest with themselves will acknowledge that they aren't the game changers that every fan was banking on getting at that draft position. I don't blame our management for that, it's not like they went off the board with Nico and Jack. For those reasons I don't consider these two picks to be indicative of much one way or the other.

one absolute draft steal first line winger,

No argument here.

a home run late first in Mercer,

I'll agree he looks like he will exceed expectations of an 18th pick, but let's pump the breaks on calling it a "home run" yet...we are still within a small sample size.

a high pick in Zacha who is probably a good NHLer on a team that doesn’t need him to be a star,

Wasn't he a Conte pick?

a steal of a trade acquisition in Siegs,

No argument here, good on Fitz.

a highly touted potential top-4 D in Smith,

Him being highly touted previously is irrelevant. He's had a shitty season and the jury is still out on whether he will top out as anything more than a bottom or middle pairing d-man.

a clear cut top-4 in Severson,

This is a pre-Shero pick...

and an assortment of young-to-youngish wingers with potential.

If they never make an impact at the NHL level, this means nothing.

Despite that, the Devils still have a very deep farm system loaded with potential bottom-9 forwards and bottom-4 defensemen.

If this supposedly very deep loaded farm system doesn't result in enough players making an impact at the NHL level to improve the team's results, this too means nothing.

All this was done with draft capital.

Well yeah, and that draft capital has as much to do with consistently sucking as anything else. I'm not sure this is the kind of thing that should be touted as some kind of success.

To point to the late Lou/Conte era and say “that’s what we need more of” is some of the most nonsensical straw-grasping i’ve ever seen on this board. Im sure that’s coming off more rude than i mean, but it’s baffling to me. Anyone who’d rather have a decade of Josefsons and Quennevilles in the first round and Mauro Jorgs and Blake Pietilas in the later rounds has to be trolling.

I haven't seen a single person say they want to bring back Lou/Conte for their drafting. Where are you getting that from? I saw one, maybe two posters, wishing that Lou could come back for the leadership and structure...which I take as more of a lamenting/venting fantasy because we don't have that element in our organization, more so than a serious proposal to actually bring him back for real.

EDIT: The point of this post is not to delineate between different GM’s moves, as obviously there’s an assortment in the final product. The point is that the Devils are clearly in better shape right now than theyve been in a LONG time, on every front.

Again, these kinds of statements are meaningless if none of it actually translates to the team improving.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I'm not sure this is what you intended to say, because that's exactly what I'm saying...



This is rather disingenuous when you don't mention that under this current regime, we have only 2 players drafted that late who became NHL regulars (one of whom may very well wind up not playing anywhere near as many NHL games as any of those cited players have) and it's still too early to determine what all the rest are.

Because of development time. Coleman, Fayne, and Kerfoot all spent 4 years in college before going pro. Wood was still playing high school hockey at 20 and didn't make the NHL until his D+4, Henrique also made the NHL at D+4. Halischuk went pro as a D+2 but didn't play more than +30 NHL games until his D+5 season, after he was traded.

It's not normal for late round picks to come to the NHL before their D+4/D+5 years. Sharangovich was a double overager who was already playing pro when he was drafted, so his D+3 he was already 23 years old (if he was drafted in his first year of eligibility he would have been D+5). And Bratt is just a freak and a super unique player that we really can't compare to anyone else

Guys currently in their D+5 season are players from the 2017 (Nico) draft - so late rounders on that timeline would be guys like Studenic, Walsh, Zetterlund, Talvitie, etc. Writing off anyone who was drafted after that is too premature. Studenic is fine as an extra forward, Walsh might have some use on special teams, but I don't think anyone else from that cohort will make is (I really liked Talvitie's game before he blew out his knee, a real shame he hasn't been the same since). But even then, making it to the AHL is a positive and they can be used as trade pieces.

Looking at 2019 alone - it isn't inconceivable we end up with +3 regular roster players picked in the 3rd round or later, which is outstanding. Clarke, Vukojevic, Thompson, McCarthy, Moynihan, and Gristyuk all have a real chance of playing NHL games within the next two years, and I'd bet money at least two of them become NHL regulars (though maybe not with this franchise).

The only problem is they're all 20-21 years old and still developing.

 

[RSeen]

Sorry, guys, but I cant hate the team. My eye test, stats (shots, 5 on 5 goals, sv%) advanced stats(GF, corsi, etc) talk to me that devils are goin in the right direction. There are not so many consistency, we must fix here and there, but goaltending makes the biggest difference. Maybe even good goaltender didnt safe us against arizona, because goalies cant save from 3rd and 4th goal, but if we have even avarage goaltending, the only we could say after this game - that svcks, we were unlucky, they create 3 good high dangerous chances, a couple of players made mistakes, sh1t happened., lets go to the next game and try to be more focuse in defensive zone. Devils were good in this game. Some players could be better, some must be replaced. But avarage or good goaltending will make this team much better and confident.

The real thing is - will Fitz do something and even do he has even an option to do. Blackwood have a long rest before arizona game. He just didn`t focuse. I`m not tellin we will play on Hurricanes\tampa level with Vasilevskiy(we will not have him), but with avarage goaltending we can fight for wild card.

I agree that there is real progress being made and goaltending is holding us back.

I think if you improve goaltending obviously we get better, but the upside for this year is we get another higher pick.

Ultimately, with our core not being as high end as some of the best teams, we may need more depth in the future to truly compete. Adding another high pick to add to our depth in the future could be an added advantage.

 

[OmNomNom]

These are acquired by having god awful seasons and really good luck. If you don't get an NHL level player there, it's either due to really bad luck or a horrible draft decision. Our first overalls are good players, but anyone being honest with themselves will acknowledge that they aren't the game changers that every fan was banking on getting at that draft position. I don't blame our management for that, it's not like they went off the board with Nico and Jack. For those reasons I don't consider these two picks to be indicative of much one way or the other.

maybe not nico, but i think jack is a game breaker - he's not fresh out the box like mcdavid, but you can see where he's trending

 

[Emperoreddy]

Jack is pretty clearly a star player if you bother to watch him play. Bratt might be as well.

Honestly I think Nico is too, but he isn't nearly as flashy as those two so a lot of what he does and brings goes unnoticed.

Our young players aren't the issue right now. The roster is still thin depth wise, which is holding them back, they aren't well coached, especially on the PP and defensively, and they have only 1 gimped goalie which is costing them games.