Devils 2021-22 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XII

[guitarguyvic]

Because of development time. Coleman, Fayne, and Kerfoot all spent 4 years in college before going pro. Wood was still playing high school hockey at 20 and didn't make the NHL until his D+4, Henrique also made the NHL at D+4. Halischuk went pro as a D+2 but didn't play more than +30 NHL games until his D+5 season, after he was traded.

It's not normal for late round picks to come to the NHL before their D+4/D+5 years. Sharangovich was a double overager who was already playing pro when he was drafted, so his D+3 he was already 23 years old (if he was drafted in his first year of eligibility he would have been D+5). And Bratt is just a freak and a super unique player that we really can't compare to anyone else

Guys currently in their D+5 season are players from the 2017 (Nico) draft - so late rounders on that timeline would be guys like Studenic, Walsh, Zetterlund, Talvitie, etc. Writing off anyone who was drafted after that is too premature. Studenic is fine as an extra forward, Walsh might have some use on special teams, but I don't think anyone else from that cohort will make is (I really liked Talvitie's game before he blew out his knee, a real shame he hasn't been the same since). But even then, making it to the AHL is a positive and they can be used as trade pieces.

Looking at 2019 alone - it isn't inconceivable we end up with +3 regular roster players picked in the 3rd round or later, which is outstanding. Clarke, Vukojevic, Thompson, McCarthy, Moynihan, and Gristyuk all have a real chance of playing NHL games within the next two years, and I'd bet money at least two of them become NHL regulars (though maybe not with this franchise).

The only problem is they're all 20-21 years old and still developing.

But I'm not writing them off. @Triumph cited the previous regime's low amount of late round picks that panned out as regular NHLer's, absent the context that you're alluding to. We don't know yet if this regime's late round picks are going to turn out to be better...but that's exactly what he was implying.

 

[Triumph]

These are acquired by having god awful seasons and really good luck. If you don't get an NHL level player there, it's either due to really bad luck or a horrible draft decision. Our first overalls are good players, but anyone being honest with themselves will acknowledge that they aren't the game changers that every fan was banking on getting at that draft position. I don't blame our management for that, it's not like they went off the board with Nico and Jack. For those reasons I don't consider these two picks to be indicative of much one way or the other.

It's just comical for you to argue this right now. Nico and Jack are playing the best hockey of their career right now. If this is all we get from Nico, great - he's a borderline 1C who can play in all situations, just like what he was supposed to be when he was drafted. You make the rhetorical point of saying 'fans' - yeah, fans want everyone to be a superstar. Players who put up Nico's numbers in junior seldom are superstars. It's been a winding road to this point with Nico, he looked a bit hobbled earlier this season, but this level? Yeah, this guy can absolutely be a #2 center on a championship team, no question.

And Jack is on the way to becoming the superstar he was drafted to be.

 

[The Devil In I]

But I'm not writing them off. @Triumph cited the previous regime's low amount of late round picks that panned out as regular NHLer's, absent the context that you're alluding to. We don't know yet if this regime's late round picks are going to turn out to be better...but that's exactly what he was implying.

It's probably possible to show the current prospects are on a better track by checking the AHL production of Conte '05-'15 draft prospects at 20-23 years old and comparing it to our current group, but I'm no where near dedicated enough to do that, and yea even though they're producing well now they still could turn into nothing at the NHL level.

 

[Triumph]

But I'm not writing them off. @Triumph cited the previous regime's low amount of late round picks that panned out as regular NHLer's, absent the context that you're alluding to. We don't know yet if this regime's late round picks are going to turn out to be better...but that's exactly what he was implying.

I mean, I'll wait 20 years to be proven right on this, but the Devils drafting in the lower rounds was quite poor up until recently, and has gotten poor again. I doubt it can reach those depths, though. 2002 through 2010 and all you get is Fayne, Henrique, and Halischuk (I guess)? That's 9 drafts.

 

[Bleedred]

I was anti-Conte back when it was not okay to be anti-Conte. Way before it started to be cool to be anti-Conte. Way before it started to be acceptable and not crazy to be anti-Conte.

I took a lot of heat on here for suggesting that Conte be let go around 2012 or possibly early in 2013, I forgot when it was.

In fact, one thing that set me off was when we would occasionally have a ''How much longer will Lou stick around and who replaces him as GM when he decides to retire?'' conversation and people would not only suggest or even just predict that his son Chris would take over and was next in line, but there were some people convinced that Conte was next in line and would take over. I don't understand, because first of all, I'm pretty sure he's up there in age with Lou. How much younger is he than Lou? I think I had trouble finding his age back then, but I'm pretty sure he's not even 5 years younger than Lou at the very most?

I don't know what his qualifications were to even be a GM if Lou decided to retire.

I even think there was a contingent that turned on Lou before they started turning on Conte.

EDIT - Conte is almost 6 full years younger than Lou. He's born August 3rd of 1948. Lou is October 21st of 1942. I had a feeling he was a little younger than Lou, but I didn't think by that much. He's looked older than Lou as long as I can remember, quite a bit older than Lou, but I somehow knew he wasn't older than Lou, but I was shocked to see he's 73 and not 76-77.

 

[AfroThunder396]

But I'm not writing them off. @Triumph cited the previous regime's low amount of late round picks that panned out as regular NHLer's, absent the context that you're alluding to. We don't know yet if this regime's late round picks are going to turn out to be better...but that's exactly what he was implying.

But even then we can compare the college/junior numbers of guys and see the quality of the prospects has improved dramatically. Guys like Tyce Thompson and Reilly Walsh played NCAA at much higher levels than the Derek Rodwell's, Corbin McPherson's, and Mike Hoeffel's of the world and that's reflected in their amateur stats. Even if they never stick with the Devils they are undoubtedly better prospects than the Conte squad was.

If your criteria for "turn out better" means "regular NHL player" then that does indeed remain to be seen, but it's pretty obvious that caliber of prospects markedly improved in the Shero era and that's reflected in their amateur numbers. Conte insisted on drafting low-ceiling guys that might cap out as AHL fodder/roster depth. Even at the time picks like Baddock, Young, and Rehill were panned on this board as being zero talent goblins and a waste of a draft pick.

 

[Emperoreddy]

We didn't draft anyone as good as Bratt in the lower rounds those years. Even if he was the only guy that turns out it would still be a better drafting record.

 

[guitarguyvic]

It's just comical for you to argue this right now. Nico and Jack are playing the best hockey of their career right now. If this is all we get from Nico, great - he's a borderline 1C who can play in all situations, just like what he was supposed to be when he was drafted. You make the rhetorical point of saying 'fans' - yeah, fans want everyone to be a superstar. Players who put up Nico's numbers in junior seldom are superstars. It's been a winding road to this point with Nico, he looked a bit hobbled earlier this season, but this level? Yeah, this guy can absolutely be a #2 center on a championship team, no question.

I said Nico is a good player.
99.9% of fans expect a game breaking talent at #1 overall, justified or not.
He's a good player but he's not even close to meeting that expectation.
What is even the point of your response? We are essentially in agreement that he's not a game breaking superstar so this is just arguing for its own sake.

And Jack is on the way to becoming the superstar he was drafted to be.

I really just can't stand these kinds of statements. Right now Jack is an inconsistent ppg player with serious flaws in his overall game. Until he proves he is better than that, there's always the chance that he isn't and then what? Claiming success before it actually occurs is an annoying quirk of sports prospect fandom.

 

[NJDevs26]

Let's be fair about one thing, anyone saying they want Lou back probably doesn't want Conte back (and you wouldn't be getting Conte back, unlike Lou he does seem content with being on the sidelines as an advisor at this point). I don't think there's any real debate that the scouting was 'good' from about the mid-00's on. Some of that was financial, it should be said - during the VBK years they skimped on basically anything that wasn't directly involved with the NHL roster and maybe the arena.

Arguing about who scouted better is pretty irrelevant. Is the Castron era better than the latter Conte era at building up a farm system, sure but by the same token our current state isn't a patch on the mid-late '90's when we were winning Cups at the NHL and AHL level in the same season. Are we going to have a draft like say, 1998 where we picked Gomez with a late first-rounder and Gionta with a third-rounder - two guys who had 1000+ NHL games between them? Probably not. They were really good at drafting in the early Lou era including years when they had lousy picks in each round, which is why people (including Lou himself) were slow to turn on Conte when the drafting fell behind.

 

[Oneiro]

In general, I just think the group of Tatar, Sharangovich, Kuokkanen, Boqvist, Zacha and Johnsson are stylistically redundant, on top of inconsistent.

The team is already relying on two small east-west guys for 20% of their offense. Ironically, it looks like they'd get more dynamic by turning that group over to a more north-south set of forwards.

 

[Triumph]

I said Nico is a good player.
99.9% of fans expect a game breaking talent at #1 overall, justified or not.
He's a good player but he's not even close to meeting that expectation.
What is even the point of your response? We are essentially in agreement that he's not a game breaking superstar so this is just arguing for its own sake.

Because I think it is idiotic to argue what 'the fan' thinks as though that's a reasonable viewpoint to hold. Have your own opinion, don't fob it off on some imagined 'fan'. I don't care what 'a fan' thinks. Nico Hischier is not a game breaking superstar but he was absolutely never expected to be that by anyone who follows the game closely. You get so mad at hype - see the next sentence - but now you want to argue that people who hype things up too much hold the viewpoint you are interested in? It makes absolutely no sense unless you just want to be angry all the time.

I really just can't stand these kinds of statements. Right now Jack is an inconsistent ppg player with serious flaws in his overall game. Until he proves he is better than that, there's always the chance that he isn't and then what? Claiming success before it actually occurs is an annoying quirk of sports prospect fandom.

'An inconsistent PPG player' - lol. You hate these kinds of statements because you're a ridiculous person who thinks that the future cannot be inferred from the present and past. And it can't be with certainty. But you are having your cake and eating it too by claiming 'Jack hasn't lived up to a #1 overall' - he has the most goals and most points of anyone in his draft class. He's 20 years old. He's at a point per game this season. He has some flaws, but the thing is, you will absolutely never not see those flaws until they fix the goaltending and start winning games. But yes, an inconsistent PPG player, the goalposts oh how they do shift.

 

[Emperoreddy]

It's not irrelevant at all though. Bad drafting is what left the team in shambles and better drafting is how they are going to get out of it.

The issue with the current team isn't that it's bereft with talent. It simply has holes (biggest one being in goal) which will need to be addressed this offseason. That isn't really anything unusual.

The blue line is in good shape. They are fine at center. They need a goalie and another winger if that can be managed.

I do think coaching is another issue that hopefully gets addressed as well. It's the only thing Lou has done well compared to our current GMs. Lou hired Trotz, while we have been hiring a conga line of crap.

There is also the intangible issue that our top players are still very young and people simply need to learn to be patient because the only fix for that is time.

 

[My3Sons]

Jack is pretty clearly a star player if you bother to watch him play. Bratt might be as well.

Honestly I think Nico is too, but he isn't nearly as flashy as those two so a lot of what he does and brings goes unnoticed.

Our young players aren't the issue right now. The roster is still thin depth wise, which is holding them back, they aren't well coached, especially on the PP and defensively, and they have only 1 gimped goalie which is costing them games.

I do think there has been a reluctance by the team to invest more heavily in players from outside while the young guys develop. Fitz admitted as much. Some folks have a hard time with that. I get that line of thinking and accept that it will lead to frustrating results. At this point, the guys expected to be the team's best players are the team's best players, with MBW playing hurt I'll defer on him for the time being. According to Fitz that's when he'd start looking more closely outside the organization at players. Hopefully a few more guys will play their way into long contracts with the team rather than play their way off. There's still enough season for guys to change their standing.

 

[JrFischer54]

As much as I hate to say it, I think John Tortorella is exactly what this team needs.

Hire him before someone else does.

he literally can not be worse then what we have seen. Unless we actually finish dead last

 

[Triumph]

In general, I just think the group of Tatar, Sharangovich, Kuokkanen, Boqvist, Zacha and Johnsson are stylistically redundant, on top of inconsistent.

The team is already relying on two small east-west guys for 20% of their offense. Ironically, it looks like they'd get more dynamic by turning that group over to a more north-south set of forwards.

This should be priority number 2 - finding some north-south wingers. Sharangovich is one, but we'll see how he finishes out the year. Kuokkanen, Boqvist, and Zacha are whatever. Tatar and Johnsson are fine but obviously neither is a long-term solution to anything.

 

[AfroThunder396]

The thing with coaching is that I'm not sure what quality of coach is going to want to come to this team. Cup chasers like Torts, Laviolette, etc aren't going to want to touch this team until they get close to contention.

Unless there's some sort of wink-wink-nudge-nudge deal in place with Dineen to be the next coach, I really don't know who else is out there that will be an upgrade.

Between the roster quality and COVID, Lindy was dealt a really awful hand and I really don't think anything would be appreciably different with another coach. He certainly hasn't done great, but look at what he's working with. Scotty Bowman couldn't get this team to the playoffs with .880% goaltending.

I definitely agree it's an issue, but we all know Lindy was a bridge coach and not a permanent solution.

 

[My3Sons]

@guitarguyvic I'm going to drop part of your post from the Around the League thread to follow up on because it strikes me as good discussion.

"Speaking for myself...but being objective about what our young players currently are is not "slamming" them. And this ties into the bolded portion of your statement. The answer to your question is apparently the New Jersey Devils...because this team has been built to rely on young, unproven players, and in fact several of them have been given the keys to the car via public statements and contracts. I agree, that's not a wise way to operate...yet that's exactly what this org is doing.

These players may yet become better. But they also might not. It annoys me that the former is the default assumption...and it's very much in the mold of "hand the reigns to these kids and they will figure it out" mentality that management seems to be on. If you assume they will blossom and become good enough to carry the team, there's no incentive to bring in established help...then if they don't pan out, you're left with a never-ending cycle of suck which you can argue we are already in the middle of."

end of carry over section....now for my words...

It becomes somewhat semantics, but I think the Devils knew full well that they were going to stink with so many kids in big roles. I think Blitzer said as much in that interview he gave between periods right around the Hughes extension. They aren't under any illusions. The problem is developing a core and the vets they had that should have been the leaders just couldn't do it. I don't want to assign blame, it's just how I saw it and my guess is that the team did too. In retrospect, was the addition of a grizzled vet or two really going to move the needle? It's speculative but I don't think so. The right grizzled vet added before next season might start to matter assuming that your best players right now are your best players at the end of the year. I don't think you are saying anything that controversial, but team results aside, young players are generally going to need time. In a cap league that's a tried and true approach for better or worse.

I would have no problem right now returning most of the defense. I'm not ready to move Smith absent a no-brainer trade, but maybe I'd send him to Utica to work it out. I'd hope to have a better third pair next season but the top four seem fine to me when healthy. Perfect, hardly. Elite, no. Decent, yes, to maybe something trending towards good if they can find a consistent third pair. I'd bring back MBW with a true second goalie that can challenge him. Up front, I'd be happy to return Bratt, Hughes, and Hischier. Mercer as well although I'd prefer to see him as a wing. The fourth line is fine, and if they can return a healthy Wood, so much the better. The team needs to be tougher to play against on the wing and needs a tough third line. It's a mixed bag. To me, better than the last few seasons, but still a work in progress. Maybe they can get a Tarasenko and a guy like that makes a difference or MBW is healthy and happy next season and can get back to looking like he can be a lead goalie, if not a star. Even last night they managed some shots and controlled play before they gave up. In the past few seasons they'd have been terrible right off the bat and gone down from there. At least now you can see the guys on the ice that are trying to make a difference and the guys that for whatever reason just can't.

 

[Lou is God]

This should be priority number 2 - finding some north-south wingers. Sharangovich is one, but we'll see how he finishes out the year. Kuokkanen, Boqvist, and Zacha are whatever. Tatar and Johnsson are fine but obviously neither is a long-term solution to anything.

I'd like to see Tyce Thompson get a chance in the bottom 6 once he's healthy. If he was healthy now I'd have him in there over someone like Kuokkanen.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I do think there has been a reluctance by the team to invest more heavily in players from outside while the young guys develop. Fitz admitted as much. Some folks have a hard time with that. I get that line of thinking and accept that it will lead to frustrating results. At this point, the guys expected to be the team's best players are the team's best players, with MBW playing hurt I'll defer on him for the time being. According to Fitz that's when he'd start looking more closely outside the organization at players. Hopefully a few more guys will play their way into long contracts with the team rather than play their way off. There's still enough season for guys to change their standing.

I mean it can't be denied they went pretty hard to bring players in from outside the organization last offseason and succeeded at it.

It's not typical to overhaul a defense like we did with outside talent and there was a strong attempt to bring in more wingers that unfortunately didn't work out along with the attempt to fix the goaltending.

Not every move is going to work, but i think it's pretty clear Fitz has the green light and desire to improve this team beyond the draft right now.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Because I think it is idiotic to argue what 'the fan' thinks as though that's a reasonable viewpoint to hold. Have your own opinion, don't fob it off on some imagined 'fan'. I don't care what 'a fan' thinks. Nico Hischier is not a game breaking superstar but he was absolutely never expected to be that by anyone who follows the game closely. You get so mad at hype - see the next sentence - but now you want to argue that people who hype things up too much hold the viewpoint you are interested in? It makes absolutely no sense unless you just want to be angry all the time.

I legit don't even understand what you're trying to argue here. You can make the bolded claim all you want...but I'm not sure our organization agrees considering they plastered him all over adverts and were quick to give him a long-term contract on the high end of the pay scale for an RFA at the time. Justified or not - nearly everyone, including hockey people who are in charge of NHL clubs - expect a first overall to change the fortunes of a team, and do so in relatively short order. Much less two of them! If those expectations are out of line, well that's just another symptom of the hype train I criticize isn't it? There's nothing inconsistent about my position on this.

'An inconsistent PPG player' - lol. You hate these kinds of statements because you're a ridiculous person who thinks that the future cannot be inferred from the present and past. And it can't be with certainty. But you are having your cake and eating it too by claiming 'Jack hasn't lived up to a #1 overall' - he has the most goals and most points of anyone in his draft class. He's 20 years old. He's at a point per game this season. He has some flaws, but the thing is, you will absolutely never not see those flaws until they fix the goaltending and start winning games. But yes, an inconsistent PPG player, the goalposts oh how they do shift.

I haven't shifted any goal posts. Like I said, the general expectation of first overalls is game breaking talent who can change the fortunes of a franchise relatively quickly. Jack is not that, at least not currently.

Using inferences about future performance as a measurement of current progress is problematic for a host of reasons. If you recognized why that is, we wouldn't have these arguments.

 

[Bleedred]

The thing with coaching is that I'm not sure what quality of coach is going to want to come to this team. Cup chasers like Torts, Laviolette, etc aren't going to want to touch this team until they get close to contention.

Unless there's some sort of wink-wink-nudge-nudge deal in place with Dineen to be the next coach, I really don't know who else is out there that will be an upgrade.

Between the roster quality and COVID, Lindy was dealt a really awful hand and I really don't think anything would be appreciably different with another coach. He certainly hasn't done great, but look at what he's working with. Scotty Bowman couldn't get this team to the playoffs with .880% goaltending.

I definitely agree it's an issue, but we all know Lindy was a bridge coach and not a permanent solution.

The most suspect thing Ruff has done is his insistence on riding Blackwood no matter what, with no consequence for how poorly he plays.

 

[Guadana]

I'd like to see Tyce Thompson get a chance in the bottom 6 once he's healthy. If he was healthy now I'd have him in there over someone like Kuokkanen.

I did very like what THompson did. I think he has great combo for bootm six player. He start to be solid on the puck, use his body, he is fast and have good hands and shot. I do think if he is healthy - we have good third liner in the future in him. Too bad he lost his time in Dineen club this year.

 

[Devils731]

I haven't shifted any goal posts. Like I said, the general expectation of first overalls is game breaking talent who can change the fortunes of a franchise relatively quickly. Jack is not that, at least not currently.

Connor McDavid is basically a failed first overall pick by this standard.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Let's go Devils - and Oilers.

 

[Darkauron]

Nothing makes me more happy in life seeing the Oilers continue to suck despite having McDavid and Leon.