Devils 2021-22 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XII

[Saugus]

Let's go Devils - and Oilers.

The wild thing is that we had a 3 game winning streak in that time too. I forgot just how many games we dropped in a row.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Connor McDavid is basically a failed first overall pick by this standard.

What? They started making the playoffs in his second season and he's basically the only reason why. That team would be a basement dweller without him.

Being a game breaker does not mean that player by himself is going to make the team an instant stanley cup champion.

 

[MadDevil]

Nothing makes me more happy in life seeing the Oilers continue to suck despite having McDavid and Leon.

The meltdown by the Edmonton media is pretty entertaining. I'm just waiting for the "Oilers can't win with Draisatl" pieces to be written. I'm assuming it'll be him they target after his "being pissy" moment.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Nothing makes me more happy in life seeing the Oilers continue to suck despite having McDavid and Leon.

I don't understand this sentiment. I mean I enjoy watching other teams trainwreck, and if there's any franchise that deserves it it's probably Edmonton with their ridiculous media and old boys club. But the fact that the prime years of the most dazzling talented hockey player in the world are being wasted away on a team like that is disgusting. I view it as a symptom of not just Edmonton's dysfunction, but also the league's. Not the kind of thing a hockey fan should revel in.

 

[Triumph]

I legit don't even understand what you're trying to argue here. You can make the bolded claim all you want...but I'm not sure our organization agrees considering they plastered him all over adverts and were quick to give him a long-term contract on the high end of the pay scale for an RFA at the time.

I am arguing that Nico Hischier was supposed to be a run of the mill 1C, not a Hall of Famer. That's still by far the best player the organization has produced in well over a decade, an organization that has always struggled for fans and media relevance, so you can see why they did all those things.

Now that you've goalpost shifted to contracts, Hischier's contract is for 7 years, signed in October of 2019. The salary cap at the time was 81.5M, so that is 8.9% of the present salary cap, with it anticipated to rise. It did not rise.

Let's compare that to some other 1st overalls, shall we?

Ovechkin - 19% (signed for 13 years)
Crosby - 19.8% (signed for 5 years)
Johnson - bridge deal
Kane - 11.1% (signed for 5 years)
Stamkos - 11.7% (signed for 5 years)
Tavares - 8.6% (signed for 6 years)
Hall - 8.3% (signed for 7 years)
RNH - [complicated because of the 2013 lockout, either 8.3% or ~9.8%] (signed for 7 years)
Yakupov - bridge deal
MacKinnon - 8.8% (signed for 6 years)
Ekblad - 10.3% (signed for 7 years)
McDavid - 16.7% (signed for 8 years)
Matthews - 14.6% (signed for 5 years)
Hischier - 8.9% (signed for 7 years)

Is Hischier's salary out of line here at all? No. Absolutely not. He got Mackinnon's deal with an extra year. It was anticipated that the cap would go up and keep going up because the NHL was getting a new TV deal and revenues were increasing. That's not what happened, but it's a solid bet to make at the time.

Justified or not - nearly everyone, including hockey people who are in charge of NHL clubs - expect a first overall to change the fortunes of a team, and do so in relatively short order. Much less two of them! If those expectations are out of line, well that's just another symptom of the hype train I criticize isn't it? There's nothing inconsistent about my position on this.

You're out of your mind. You talk about plastering people on adverts as though it's some sort of metric for anything. A 1st overall pick is super exciting for fans. It does not change the fortunes of a team overnight. Hell, the Devils are one of the few teams who picked 1st overall with their own pick and made the playoffs the next year. That is extremely rare - Matthews is the only other guy on this list to do it, I think. Now a lot of these teams did get better quickly but they had the luxury of being on teams who had other talented players, but Nico had the misfortune of coming to a franchise that had picked duds with its previous 2 1st rounders and then basically had almost no 1st round picks for the 5 years before that who had to steal away Taylor Hall to have a top line forward.

I haven't shifted any goal posts. Like I said, the general expectation of first overalls is game breaking talent who can change the fortunes of a franchise relatively quickly. Jack is not that, at least not currently.

'Relatively quickly' is the note here. Mario Lemieux was a superstar and his team was so shitty that they missed the playoffs his first 4 seasons. The Oilers are at risk of missing the playoffs again with McDavid and Draisaitl. Jack is playing like a 1st line center right now. Where can he go from here?

Using inferences about future performance as a measurement of current progress is problematic for a host of reasons. If you recognized why that is, we wouldn't have these arguments.

Has Jack Hughes made any progress to you this season?

 

[My3Sons]

I mean it can't be denied they went pretty hard to bring players in from outside the organization last offseason and succeeded at it.

It's not typical to overhaul a defense like we did with outside talent and there was a strong attempt to bring in more wingers that unfortunately didn't work out along with the attempt to fix the goaltending.

Not every move is going to work, but i think it's pretty clear Fitz has the green light and desire to improve this team beyond the draft right now.

Dr. Evil was a needle mover. Graves has worked out well, but was a bargain value pickup. Tatar and Bernier as well. Same with Siegenthaler. I think we can expert more assertive moves if Nico, Bratt and Hischier keep it up going forward. He was waiting for them to get it together and they are starting too. Hopefully they keep it up and maybe they get Dr. Evil back in a month or so.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Has Jack Hughes made any progress to you this season?

He's producing better now, so yeah I'd say so. He's still not managing the puck very well, and to me still looks like the kind of finesse player that can be effectively shut down when the opposition gets physical and keys in on him. Him turning into the kind of player we hope is contingent on him figuring that part out.

 

[Triumph]

He's producing better now, so yeah I'd say so. He's still not managing the puck very well, and to me still looks like the kind of finesse player that can be effectively shut down when the opposition gets physical and keys in on him. Him turning into the kind of player we hope is contingent on him figuring that part out.

Huh, must've missed all that stuff I wrote about Nico Hischier, but it did rebut your point, so I can see why. Okay. Good to see that Hughes looks like the kind of finesse player that can be effectively shut down when the opposition gets physical and keys in on him. Of course here I'd point out that Jack Hughes is 20 years old and has plenty of time to learn that but in the meantime he is making superstar level plays every night.

 

[OmNomNom]

What? They started making the playoffs in his second season and he's basically the only reason why. That team would be a basement dweller without him.

Being a game breaker does not mean that player by himself is going to make the team an instant stanley cup champion.

point production wise though, the way he enters the zone and the set up passes he makes... you can't seriously think that's not a game breaker's quality?

sure you're right, he could completely bust out of nowhere. but as of right now, he's showing positive signs

 

[Devils731]

What? They started making the playoffs in his second season and he's basically the only reason why. That team would be a basement dweller without him.

Being a game breaker does not mean that player by himself is going to make the team an instant stanley cup champion.

Ok, so Hughes has 3 more years to win 1 playoff round to match McDavid and become a good first overall. Phew.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Huh, must've missed all that stuff I wrote about Nico Hischier, but it did rebut your point, so I can see why. Okay. Good to see that Hughes looks like the kind of finesse player that can be effectively shut down when the opposition gets physical and keys in on him. Of course here I'd point out that Jack Hughes is 20 years old and has plenty of time to learn that but in the meantime he is making superstar level plays every night.

No I didn't miss it. I just don't feel like continuing to go back and forth with you on the same old shit. I also don't have the time to consistently respond to these ever growing point-counterpoints. I do have a life outside of HFboards.

Your points about Nico have plenty of merit...but this is sports, not science, and these are subjective opinions. So we will just have to agree to disagree.

As for Jack...just because he has time to learn it, doesn't mean he will. It's not exactly unheard of for a talented offensive player to remain highly flawed and not reach their full potential.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Ok, so Hughes has 3 more years to win 1 playoff round to match McDavid and become a good first overall. Phew.

Yeah because that's exactly what I said. Congratulations on winning the daily strawman challenge.

 

[guitarguyvic]

point production wise though, the way he enters the zone and the set up passes he makes... you can't seriously think that's not a game breaker's quality?

sure you're right, he could completely bust out of nowhere. but as of right now, he's showing positive signs

Half the time he enters the zone it's impressive. The other half it results in a turnover at the blueline that is a detriment to the team.

If he can figure out how do the former waaaay more often than the latter...then we are looking at someone really special. That's a big if.

 

[MauDevils]

This place is torn on who or what to blame.

That's when you know things are very bad.

 

[Bleedred]

The Oilers are another great example of bad goalies right now.

The most predictable gamble of the year was not betting money on Mike Smith replicating what he did last year (it was an anomaly/overachievement year for a goalie who was 38-39 years old and already on the decline for a couple of years before that) and still letting Koskinen also play there.

They needed to go with one or the other and upgrade with the open spot. They could have used Nedeljkovic and if they went out and got Kuemper (who hasn't been great this year) then I would have at least have given them credit. Even if he didn't work out.

They stood pat and stayed status quo.

 

[Devils731]

Yeah because that's exactly what I said. Congratulations on winning the daily strawman challenge.

You said first overalls need to “change the fortune” the franchise around by themselves and do it relatively quickly. If that’s the expectation then McDavid hasn’t been good enough.

It’s not a strawman to point out that was a ridiculous standard to apply.

 

[Devils731]

As for Jack...just because he has time to learn it, doesn't mean he will. It's not exactly unheard of for a talented offensive player to remain highly flawed and not reach their full potential.

Hughes right now is having a 35 goal, 82 point pace season. Even if he just did that the rest of his career, he’s a hall of fame player.

How much more would he have to learn and produce to be a good first overall pick for you?

 

[MauDevils]

Don't really understand why we would be scouting two division rivals.

 

[Triumph]

Half the time he enters the zone it's impressive. The other half it results in a turnover at the blueline that is a detriment to the team.

If he can figure out how do the former waaaay more often than the latter...then we are looking at someone really special. That's a big if.

This is what drives me up a wall because you say that sports aren't science, but people are out there counting zone entries, and Jack Hughes is one of the best in the league at it. Last season he was one of the most frequent players to enter the zone with the puck. Yes, he has to improve on some of his worst decisions, especially on the power play, but he is already phenomenal at entering the zone 5v5.

 

[Emperoreddy]

This place is torn on who or what to blame.

That's when you know things are very bad.

It's not torn at all. The problems are pretty obvious, but a couple people have axes to grind against players who clearly are not the problem solely because of who drafted them

 

[Devils731]

It's not torn at all. The problems are pretty obvious, but a couple people have axes to grind against players who clearly are not the problem solely because of who drafted them

I keep saying I don’t care who drafted Geertsen.

 

[Lou is God]

Don't really understand why we would be scouting two division rivals.

Neither is a team that would be buyers at the tradeline, in fact they're probably be big sellers......like us.

 

[NJDevs26]

Don't really understand why we would be scouting two division rivals.

We don’t even play either the rest of the season so…

 

[Devils731]

Sometimes scouts just go to games because it fits their schedule or, my assumption, because they want to talk with someone.

 

[guitarguyvic]

This is what drives me up a wall because you say that sports aren't science, but people are out there counting zone entries, and Jack Hughes is one of the best in the league at it. Last season he was one of the most frequent players to enter the zone with the puck. Yes, he has to improve on some of his worst decisions, especially on the power play, but he is already phenomenal at entering the zone 5v5.

You can enter the zone and the promptly turn it over badly. Which is coincidentally often what happens with him.

I’m not even saying he’s a bad player so these rebuttals are weird.