Combined Goalie Discussion thread

[bossram]

Comparing goalie stats on different teams is a fool's errand. Few fans truly understand the Goaltending position beyond staring at a spreadsheet and watching highlights. The best information we have to go on is Murray's drive to return to form with 2 cups on his resume and Samsonov's 1st round pedigree to make it as a starter as he begins his prime years.

Not a bad backdrop for our goaltending, in my honest opinion. We had hoped Campbell's drive for a big contract would have carried us, and it almost did before he had a mental collapse, which ended any possibility of earning a long-term deal in Toronto.

I'm more bullish on the Leafs' goalie tandem than most, but this is hilariously bad reasoning.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Leafs received inconsistent goaltending from Campbell throughout the year which varied from Vezina worthy, All-Star goaltending for long stretches at the start of the season to well below average goaltending during the winter, to an average finish. You can make an argument that the trough was well below average goaltending but overall it was alright.

Overall, it was below average.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

No, the Leafs have attempted to improve their goaltending, and win in the playoffs.

Pretty sorry attempt given what we ended up with. They should have attempted a lot harder/sooner.

 

[Nineteen67]

#

Leafs knowingly downgraded their goaltending in an attempt to increase their playoff winning record.

Logically that is backasswards reasoning, as most would look to upgrade the goaltending position to get better results if its deemed the reason for the failure.

Its really a Win -Win situation as you suggest, as along as there is accountability for the results.
If the high risk reclamation goalie project works more playoff games fantastic !!, and if it doesn't thennew GM and Coach which is also fine from my perspective, as it helps easy the pain of another wasted season, knowing we'll be getting a long overdue upgrade in management,

I'm just glad its not my neck on the line , because if I was in this position, I would be really nervous taking on this much risk, as I would make goaltending my #1 priority not an afterthought.

My reasoning being, if you bring in stronger players and the experiment fails, then its on the players for under-performing, but if you bring in weaker players and it fails, then its on the GM the decision maker when accountability for the results is determined.

i don’t know if it’s a downgrade, upgrade, or remains the same. It’s an BIG ?, but it’s irrelevant if the guys in front the goalie don’t compete.

 

[Razz]

The only thing I'm disappointed about concerning our goaltending is our lack of organizational depth for years. The Leafs just suck at drafting and developing goalies. It's incredibly frustrating that we have to keep spinning the roulette wheel on goalie trades because the true superstars in the net are rarely available, especially in their prime.

That said, I'm fine with the tandem we have right now. Until proven otherwise, it's no better or worse than we've had since the Cujo years.

Just keep drafting and developing young goalies with higher picks, and hopefully, someday we will have our own Shesterkin.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Pretty sorry attempt given what we ended up with. They should have attempted a lot harder/sooner.

Nah, Its fine.

 

[Stephen]

Overall, it was below average.

I’m completely fine with moving on from Campbell but don’t think throwing ex-Leafs under the bus and diminishing them after they leave is as productive as you think. If Campbell was below average, and Mrazek a disaster, are we basically saying the management team failed to make a critical position even league average, and did we just miss a championship run?

 

[Menzinger]

I agree.

However that is likely what Ottawa thought when they acquired Murray coming off 3 struggling post Cup years with the Pens, that he would return to Cup form and worth the gamble.

Sadly they were forced to contract dump him with retention and added draft capital to undo that mistake.

Jack Campbell was drafted #11 overall in his draft class similarly to Samsonov going #22 overall in his.

Washington thought they drafted a 1st round pedigree and cut him loose as a non qualified RFA after 3 disappointing seasons and early playoff round one losses. You would have thought Washington could have traded him and gotten some assets in return for a former 1st round draft pick.

Well Ottawa and Washington loss is now Leafs gain,

The Sens also had one of the worst teams in the league prior to the Murray signing. Not exactly an ideal situation to rehab a player..nor will it be the same situation that a player heading into Toronto will face.

Arizona lost Bunting for free too. As did the Hawks with Kampf. Seemed to work out pretty well for the Leafs

 

[Ianturnedbull]

We'll find out if this was a lame duck GM move or some quality pro scouting.

::Crosses fingers and toes::

 

[BrannigansLaw]

We'll find out if this was a lame duck GM move or some quality pro scouting.

::Crosses fingers and toes::

Highly doubt these guys were Dubas’ top choices. It was a pair of moves that worked with our cap and the best of the left over junk in the bargain bin. Though I thought the rumors about Murray and the Leafs started well before the UFA window so who knows, Dubas seems fixated on old soo players.

 

[hotpaws]

Highly doubt these guys were Dubas’ top choices. It was a pair of moves that worked with our cap and the best of the left over junk in the bargain bin. Though I thought the rumors about Murray and the Leafs started well before the UFA window so who knows, Dubas seems fixated on old soo players.

i agree , if he was Dube's top choice or one of them he would have traded for him before the Sens traded him with a larger sweetener only to have the deal nixed by Murray

 

[Mess]

The Sens also had one of the worst teams in the league prior to the Murray signing. Not exactly an ideal situation to rehab a player..nor will it be the same situation that a player heading into Toronto will face.

Arizona lost Bunting for free too. As did the Hawks with Kampf. Seemed to work out pretty well for the Leafs

Last summer Dudas let Freddy Andersen walk, who signed for 2 years @ $ 4.5 mil by replacing him with Petr Mrazek with 3 years @ $3.8 mil. There was only a $700k savings in Cap.

Freddy Andersen went on to play in 52 games winning 35 games with the Canes with a 2.17 GAA and .922 sv% (which was top 3 in the NHL in both categories).
Petr Mrazek struggled mighty playing in only 20 games winning 10 but with a 3.34 GAA (57th) and .888 sv%.(64th)

How many Leaf fans last year believed Dubas was upgrading the Leafs netminding for 2021-22?

This year Dubas let Jack Campbell go that played in 49 games winning 31 with a 2.64 GAA (14th best) & .914 sv% (15th) as he signed 5 years @ $5 mil & replaced him with
Matt Murray played in only 20 games winning 5 with a .906 sv% (39th) & 3.05 GAA (44th)

The difference in Cap space savings from Campbell $5,000,000 to Murray @ $4,687,500 = $312,500k savings. (for the next 2 years)

How many Leaf Fans now believe Dubas has upgraded the Leafs netminding for 2022-23?

Dubas track record replacing previous goalies either starters or backups has always failed up to now. But the previous goalie performances and stats in comparison have always been a downgrade from their predecessors before the experiment began,.

This time he is taking the greatest risk of all based on new goalies recent performances. So this time it will be different, because?

 

[Mess]

i agree , if he was Dube's top choice or one of them he would have traded for him before the Sens traded him with a larger sweetener only to have the deal nixed by Murray

You could even take that same question back earlier a couple more years.

If Dubas believed Murray was an upgrade on Jack Campbell then why did he go out in 2020 and trade for Campbell from LA, and a few months later Ottawa traded for Murray in 2020.

Murray was only making $3,750,000 at the time while Campbell was at $1,650,000.

Acquisition cost not much different

Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion announced today that the team has acquired goaltender Matt Murray from the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for forward prospect Jonathan Gruden and the Senators' second-round selection (52nd overall) in the 2020 NHL Draft.

Toronto Maple Leafs announced that they have acquired goaltender Jack Campbell and forward Kyle Clifford from the Los Angeles Kings in exchange for forward Trevor Moore, the Columbus Blue Jackets' third-round pick #82 in the 2020 NHL draft and a conditional third-round pick in 2021 #88 overall.

Leafs could have taken a run at the Cup the last 3 years with Murray instead of Campbell if that was Dubas first choice.

 

[Racer88]

Pretty sorry attempt given what we ended up with. They should have attempted a lot harder/sooner.

The did attempt it but Dubas and his crew have no idea how to do it

 

[IPS]

I’m completely fine with moving on from Campbell but don’t think throwing ex-Leafs under the bus and diminishing them after they leave is as productive as you think.

This is precisely why Kadri winning the cup was incredibly satisfying to me.

The unnamed posters who were trying to paint Kerfoot as a better/similar player had to really eat some shit on that one.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Last summer Dudas let Freddy Andersen walk, who signed for 2 years @ $ 4.5 mil by replacing him with Petr Mrazek with 3 years @ $3.8 mil. There was only a $700k savings in Cap.

Freddy Andersen went on to play in 52 games winning 35 games with the Canes with a 2.17 GAA and .922 sv% (which was top 3 in the NHL in both categories).
Petr Mrazek struggled mighty playing in only 20 games winning 10 but with a 3.34 GAA (57th) and .888 sv%.(64th)

How many Leaf fans last year believed Dubas was upgrading the Leafs netminding for 2021-22?

This year Dubas let Jack Campbell go that played in 49 games winning 31 with a 2.64 GAA (14th best) & .914 sv% (15th) as he signed 5 years @ $5 mil & replaced him with
Matt Murray played in only 20 games winning 5 with a .906 sv% (39th) & 3.05 GAA (44th)

The difference in Cap space savings from Campbell $5,000,000 to Murray @ $4,687,500 = $312,500k savings. (for the next 2 years)

How many Leaf Fans now believe Dubas has upgraded the Leafs netminding for 2022-23?

Dubas track record replacing previous goalies either starters or backups has always failed up to now. But the previous goalie performances and stats in comparison have always been a downgrade from their predecessors before the experiment began,.

This time he is taking the greatest risk of all based on new goalies recent performances. So this time it will be different, because?

Because it is different. No one wants to fall victim to the misattributed definition of insanity.

This is precisely why Kadri winning the cup was incredibly satisfying to me.

The unnamed posters who were trying to paint Kerfoot as a better/similar player had to really eat some shit on that one.

They are eating the same species of crow that others will eat.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I’m completely fine with moving on from Campbell but don’t think throwing ex-Leafs under the bus and diminishing them after they leave is as productive as you think.

I'm not throwing anybody under the bus. I'm stating a literal fact. What Campbell gave us last year was below average goaltending overall. He was -2.3 GSAx in the regular season and -1.1 GSAx in the playoffs. He's capable of better, but that's what we got last year. Pretending ex-Leafs performed better than they did and building them up after they leave isn't productive either.

 

[Tarmore]

Opinions on Campbell's collapse Was the cause:

A) Mental
B) Injury
C) Fatigue
D) other

I'm thinking Fatigue because the Leafs didn't have a back-up they trusted so he had to play more games in the latter half of the year when he needed days off.

 

[Bomber0104]

I’m completely fine with moving on from Campbell but don’t think throwing ex-Leafs under the bus and diminishing them after they leave is as productive as you think. If Campbell was below average, and Mrazek a disaster, are we basically saying the management team failed to make a critical position even league average, and did we just miss a championship run?

That seems to be the case.

If Campbell was a failure here and wasn't the answer in net, then I guess that means Dubas is still searching for his first non-failure / answer in net.

Every single goalie he's tried out here has been a flop and looks like one of his biggest managerial weaknesses.

 

[Mess]

I'm not throwing anybody under the bus. I'm stating a literal fact. What Campbell gave us last year was below average goaltending overall. He was -2.3 GSAx in the regular season and -1.1 GSAx in the playoffs. He's capable of better, but that's what we got last year. Pretending ex-Leafs performed better than they did and building them up after they leave isn't productive either.

You really should get a better understanding of GSAx analytics and how they apply to a goalies actual stats.

Jack Campbell's Stats;

Jack Campbell played in 49 games last year .. He faced 1430 shots made 1307 saves allowing 123 actual goals against.. = SV% .914 (14th best overall)

Shot tracking analytics @ -2.3 GSAx suggests he should have made 2-3 more saves "On The Entire Season" based on shot location, as he was expected to only allow 120.66 pretend goals against. So instead of making 1307 saves he was expected to make 1310 (+3 more).

If he would have made those hypothetical +2.3 extra saves his actual stats would have read 1430 shots & 1310 saves allowing only 120 actual goals against = SV% .915

Therefore his GSAx of -2.3 cost him dropping from .915 sv% to .914 sv% instead by not saving those 2.3 expected goals. [* NHL team league average SV% = .908 **]

Over the course of 49 games and 1430 shots against = -.049 / per 60. So every 60 minute game Campbell saves GSAx were an -.05 less than actual, or accumulated on average every 21 games played he should have let in 1 less goal against, or on a per shot bases then every actual 621 against he faces he should make +1 more save. That is just earth shattering !!!

You're defining Campbell's entire season play/performance on making subjectively - 2.3 less saves then expected (simply based on where those 1430 shots he faced came from on the ice), because you don't understand how it applies in context to his actual NHL tracked stats.

He won 31 games last year .. How many potential wins & potential points in the standings, did he cost the Leafs by letting in 2.3 more goals than expected on the full season?

 

[notbias]

You really should get a better understanding of GSAx analytics better.

Jack Campbell's Stats;

View attachment 583190

View attachment 583194

Jack Campbell played in 49 games last year .. He faced 1430 shots made 1307 saves allowing 123 actual goals against.. = SV% .914 (14th best overall)

Shot tracking analytics @ -2.3 GSAx suggests he should have made 2-3 more saves "On The Entire Season" based on shot location, as he was expected to only allow 120.66 pretend goals against. So instead of making 1307 saves he was expected to make 1310 (+3 more).

Over the course of 49 games and 1430 shots against = -.049 / per 60. So every 60 minute game Campbell saves GSAx were -.05 less than actual, or accumulated on average every 21 games played he should have let in 1 less goal against, or on a per shot bases then every actual 621 against he faces he should make 1 more save.

You're defining Campbell's entire season play/performance on making subjectively - 2.3 less saves then expected (simply based on where those 1430 shots he faced came from on the ice), because you don't understand how it applies in context to his actual NHL tracked stats.

He won 31 games last year .. How many potential wins & potential points in the standings, did he cost the Leafs by letting in 2.3 more goals than expected on the full season?

"you don't understand how it applies in context to his actual NHL tracked stats" then just uses the whole season of Campbell and ignores he was trash for most of it

How is this a mod for our team? Campbell was trash for the majority of the year, not sure why you're defending him, just trash Murray/Samsonov, it is much easier than trying to defend Campbell.

The signings/trade is questionable and a gamble, but pretending Campbell was good last year is hilarious to me.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Nah, Its fine.

Imagine thinking having samsonov and murray as your goaltending tandem is "fine".

This is just another example of certain fans showing their inability to assess hockey related matters accurately.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You really should get a better understanding of GSAx analytics better.

Jack Campbell's Stats;
View attachment 583190
View attachment 583194
Jack Campbell played in 49 games last year .. He faced 1430 shots made 1307 saves allowing 123 actual goals against.. = SV% .914 (14th best overall)
Shot tracking analytics @ -2.3 GSAx suggests he should have made 2-3 more saves "On The Entire Season" based on shot location, as he was expected to only allow 120.66 pretend goals against. So instead of making 1307 saves he was expected to make 1310 (+3 more).
Over the course of 49 games and 1430 shots against = -.049 / per 60. So every 60 minute game Campbell saves GSAx were -.05 less than actual, or accumulated on average every 21 games played he should have let in 1 less goal against, or on a per shot bases then every actual 621 against he faces he should make 1 more save.
You're defining Campbell's entire season play/performance on making subjectively - 2.3 less saves then expected (simply based on where those 1430 shots he faced came from on the ice), because you don't understand how it applies in context to his actual NHL tracked stats.
He won 31 games last year .. How many potential wins & potential points in the standings, did he cost the Leafs by letting in 2.3 more goals than expected on the full season?

I'm not the one struggling with understanding GSAx. I understand what it means, I apply it appropriately and consistently, and I've even spoken on its limitations. You seem to incorrectly think it's all make-believe and meaningless, and yet still use it selectively and often in incorrect ways when it suits you.

You posted his stats up in that post, just as I did. Campbell was -2.3 GSAx in the regular season and -1.1 GSAx in the playoffs. That is below average. It's only slightly below average, but it's still below average.

You try to deflect from this fact by pointing to...

SV% - Which ignores the significant advantage Campbell had relative to other goalies because of the team's defensive play in front.
Wins - Which ignores that the team was winning despite him for the majority of the season, not because of him. Wins are a team stat. They are not a goalie stat.

In terms of how it affected the Leafs wins/points (which has nothing to do with an individual goalie's performance), I think if anything, that overall GSAx flatters him, because he was really brought up overall by one spectacular month. I would guess that the impact of countless months of below average goaltending cost the team more points than the one month of spectacular goaltending gained them, though we were quite good at covering for their mistakes.

 

[Gallagbi]

You really should get a better understanding of GSAx analytics and how they apply to a goalies actual stats.

Im all for differing opinions, but the last time you made this claim you erased the quote because you were so far off the mark. You've consistently misunderstood GSAX to the point you didnt consider Murray/Campbell when you first revealed it as a god stat, now youre left backtracking. You cant comprehend ratios, youve painted yourself into a corner and your blatant misuse and misunderstanding of stats have you hiding from responses on a daily basis.

Maybe we should be a little more reserved when calling out others given your constant state of confusion with numbers.

But hey, im still up for that over/under 86.5 point bet if you want to measure dicks on stats.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Imagine thinking having samsonov and murray as your goaltending tandem is "fine".

This is just another example of certain fans showing their inability to assess hockey related matters accurately.

"Imagine thinking having samsonov and murray as your goaltending tandem is "fine"."

I don't have to imagine that.


"This is just another example of certain fans showing their inability to assess hockey related matters accurately."

I agree. Virtually all your posts are that.