Combined Goalie Discussion thread

[Mess]

Isn’t management’s interpretation and use of stats a bigger issue at the end of the day?

Was someone looking at all those stats and green lighting the playoff run with Campbell knowing what you know? Aren’t we an analytics team? All we needed was an average goalie and management couldn’t find one?

Again, I’m okay with moving on from Campbell if someone wants to make the point that we need a more consistent upgrade in net. But cutting him to pieces and ignoring the good work he did actually puts management’s decision to roll with him in a worse light. I don’t think that’s your intention.

Campbell had a SV% of .914, the new guys Murray was at .906 and Samsonov coming off a .896 [Save % = Saves / Shots on net]

That means when each goalie is facing an actual shot on net that Campbell will be making more saves then Murray and Samsonov based on sv% as of last years performances. Clearly Campbell had the much better season as he simply made more saves at a higher rate, and more saves leads to more team wins.

There is this belief that since Leafs are a better team that this will someone impact sv% totals, but that is misinterpretation, because those stats are based on actual Shots on net vs Saves and Goals allowed. Jack Campbell faced 1430 actual shots on a so called "better defensive team", now "better team" that might imply that you surrender less shots against in a game, or you block more shots on goal etc as team, but it doesn't change the actual shots taken on net and the ones the goalie is required to save.

That is like arguing that if Caps Ovechkin took an unscreened shot from his favourite face-off dot on Matt Murray while standing in a Ottawa net, that's completely different then OV taking the exact same shot from the exact same spot on Murray now guarding a Leafs net now that he is required to make the save in both cases. The only difference is his jersey colour and crest on the front to expect him to let it in IF in a Sens jersey and save it in a Leafs jersey because Leafs are a "better defensive team". That is nonsensical reasoning. Its the goalies abilities to stop pucks and his own skill set and known strengths and weakness that determine the outcome of Shots on net as Goals or Saves not the colour of the jersey he is wearing.

You pointed out earlier (the Pittsburgh trend) that identified Murray weaknesses of cross crease passes, and are working on his technique to help him improve his save% through goalie coaching or changing his stance or his goalie mechanics on positioning etc.. That at least makes logical sense that the Player himself must get better/improve at stopping pucks not the Team around him doesn't increase his odds of making a save from the same spot on the ice.

Matt Murray had a .899 sv% in his final year in Pittsburgh, and his 2 year average on Ottawa was also .899 sv% .. Why, because Its not the team its the player abilities himself that determines his puck stopping ability.

 

[Gallagbi]

This may very well pan out if we're lucky, but it isn't the vote of confidence on management that you think it is.

Maybe you should stop making these type of assumptions, it seems to be where youre getting caught up. And it seems to be a consistent pattern for you given the assumptions last week (hell, weve done this dance for year)

As a tandem, our goaltending was below average last year. Our new tandem? Also below average last year when looking at their weighted starts, albeit marginally better. Im using GSAX/60 for those who ask why I think that.

Management is gambling on goaltending this year. Thats not a vote of confidence for them or their replacement tandem

 

[Gary Nylund]

Would it make you happier if every single poster here was as negative about everything leafs here? Tho I'm sure some posters here are fake leaf fans (trolls) that just like to get their jollies off people here who only have criticism and doom mentality.

Also, even the biggest homers here are just as dissapointed as you about the first round exits... They just don't feel the need to play the "end of the world card" which gets tired to read over and over again.

New season, new hope. Let's cheer our boys on.
Go leafs go

Great post. GLG!!

 

[Stephen]

Maybe you should stop making these type of assumptions, it seems to be where youre getting caught up. And it seems to be a consistent pattern for you given the assumptions last week (hell, weve done this dance for year)

As a tandem, our goaltending was below average last year. Our new tandem? Also below average last year when looking at their weighted starts, albeit marginally better. Im using GSAX/60 for those who ask why I think that.

Management is gambling on goaltending this year. Thats not a vote of confidence for them or their replacement tandem

I’m just saying the quiet part out loud for people who want to diminish Campbell’s game in retrospect. And it’s not doing what you think it is.

Campbell’s season could be split into 3 segments, early season highs, mid season valley and an average finish. Racked with inconsistency. I have no problem moving on from him.

But for arguments sake, the lower the average baseline you establish for Campbell, the lower the bar Murray and Samsonov have to clear for the Leafs to stay at a similar level. Therefore good job Dubie. That’s fruitless because we needed Vezina level play at different times in the year, and we shall see if we get that this year.

 

[Stephen]

Campbell had a SV% of .914, the new guys Murray was at .906 and Samsonov coming off a .896 [Save % = Saves / Shots on net]

That means when each goalie is facing an actual shot on net that Campbell will be making more saves then Murray and Samsonov based on sv% as of last years performances. Clearly Campbell had the much better season as he simply made more saves at a higher rate, and more saves leads to more team wins.

There is this belief that since Leafs are a better team that this will someone impact sv% totals, but that is misinterpretation, because those stats are based on actual Shots on net vs Saves and Goals allowed. Jack Campbell faced 1430 actual shots on a so called "better defensive team", now "better team" that might imply that you surrender less shots against in a game, or you block more shots on goal etc as team, but it doesn't change the actual shots taken on net and the ones the goalie is required to save.

That is like arguing that if Caps Ovechkin took an unscreened shot from his favourite face-off dot on Matt Murray while standing in a Ottawa net, that's completely different then OV taking the exact same shot from the exact same spot on Murray now guarding a Leafs net now that he is required to make the save in both cases. The only difference is his jersey colour and crest on the front to expect him to let it in IF in a Sens jersey and save it in a Leafs jersey because Leafs are a "better defensive team". That is nonsensical reasoning. Its the goalies abilities to stop pucks and his own skill set and known strengths and weakness that determine the outcome of Shots on net as Goals or Saves not the colour of the jersey he is wearing.

You pointed out earlier (the Pittsburgh trend) that identified Murray weaknesses of cross crease passes, and are working on his technique to help him improve his save% through goalie coaching or changing his stance or his goalie mechanics on positioning etc.. That at least makes logical sense that the Player himself must get better/improve at stopping pucks not the Team around him doesn't increase his odds of making a save from the same spot on the ice.

Matt Murray had a .899 sv% in his final year in Pittsburgh, and his 2 year average on Ottawa was also .899 sv% .. Why, because Its not the team its the player abilities himself that determines his puck stopping ability.

I’m hoping the upside on Murray and Samsonov pan out but the whole idea that we need to punch down on Campbell and suggest we were a 115 point team with below average goaltending doesn’t work for me. At various points in the upcoming season we will need Murray and Samsonov to give us November-Campbell type goaltending.

 

[Mess]

Are you sitting on a boat of "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." like you usually rant here or have you changed your mind?

NO, I actually agree with you and have no problem moving on from Freddy Andersen and Jack Campbell because when given the chance failed so lets move on.

My issue is with the logic behind attempting to upgrade the position annually in an attempt to get better results then lost in round #1, however attempting that by bringing in players with lower performance stats to achieve it which is downgrading at the position. IMO

So I am expecting different results alright, just not in the same direction you appear to be suggesting that all change is good change, as status quo is insanity by definition when you already have losing performances.

If this high risk reclamation project fails, I'm 100% on board with upgrading the GM and Coach next in hopes of getting better results, because doing the same thing over and over with the same failing management team would be utterly insane on its merits of consistent failure.

 

[Stephen]

NO, I actually agree with you and have no problem moving on from Freddy Andersen and Jack Campbell because when given the chance failed so let move on.

My issue is with the logic behind attempting to upgrade the position annually in an attempt to get better results then lost in round #1, however attempting that by bringing in players with lower performance stats to achieve it which is downgrading at the position. IMO

So I am expecting different results alright, just not in the same direction you appear to be suggesting that all change is good change, as status quo is insanity by definition when you already have losing performances.

If this high risk reclamation project fails, I'm 100% on board with upgrading the GM and Coach next in hopes of getting better results, because doing the same thing over and over with the same failing management team would be utterly insane on its merits of consistent failure.

Revamping the goalie department is a good start. Little late to kick the old staff to the curb but better late than never. Get better eyes on the goalies we have, help them realize their upside and have the ability to identify goalie targets.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Campbell gave us months of Vezina caliber goaltending at the start of the season

To be clear, he gave us one month of Vezina-caliber goaltending, and he was really great for that month, but there's more than that to his season (which also included average months, below average months, and absolutely horrific months).

If you're going to throw away Campbell's good work

I didn't throw away Campbell's good work at all. It seems you're trying to throw away everything else. The question was about the season overall, and while he had good moments and bad moments, for the season overall, he was slightly below average. That's not throwing anybody under the bus or diminishing them. It's just the facts.

you have to ask yourself 2 questions. One, is Murray or Samsonov likely to be playing at a level where they're at the All-Star Game next year?

I don't really care if they're at the All Star game. It's meaningless. I care if they play well throughout the whole season and playoffs, and I'd rather they peak in May/June than November. There's a decent chance that we get better goaltending this upcoming year than we got last year. Hopefully quite a bit better, but we'll have to wait and see.

And Two, if Campbell was so bad going into the trade deadline, wouldn't getting a league average goalie at the deadline have been enough to win the first round?

The only goalie that was traded at the deadline had a worse season and playoffs than Campbell, and the hope was that the injury was what was bringing him down, since he was good with us in 2020-2021 and through the beginning of the season. Campbell is a decent enough goalie, but decent goalies (including anybody we could have acquired) can still put up below average results.

But like I've been saying to the general view point you're describing, the "Campbell is below average" line of thinking

To be clear, the argument is that Campbell put up below average results last year, not that Campbell is a below average goalie.

 

[Stephen]

To be clear, he gave us one month of Vezina-caliber goaltending, and he was really great for that month, but there's more than that to his season (which also included average months, below average months, and absolutely horrific months).

I didn't throw away Campbell's good work at all. It seems you're trying to throw away everything else. The question was about the season overall, and while he had good moments and bad moments, for the season overall, he was slightly below average. That's not throwing anybody under the bus or diminishing them. It's just the facts.

I don't really care if they're at the All Star game. It's meaningless. I care if they play well throughout the whole season and playoffs, and I'd rather they peak in May/June than November. There's a decent chance that we get better goaltending this upcoming year than we got last year. Hopefully quite a bit better, but we'll have to wait and see.

The only goalie that was traded at the deadline had a worse season and playoffs than Campbell, and the hope was that the injury was what was bringing him down, since he was good with us in 2020-2021 and through the beginning of the season. Campbell is a decent enough goalie, but decent goalies (including anybody we could have acquired) can still put up below average results.

To be clear, the argument is that Campbell put up below average results last year, not that Campbell is a below average goalie.

Again, all this does is set a low bar for Murray and Samsonov as if we've found a solution already, but in the end we still need them to give us something approaching Campbell's October .918 SV%, and April .915 SV% goaltending, if not November .959 SV%. And like I said, we can only have the answer when we actually see them in action.

If we go by the idea that Dubas can't find goalie solutions because of what happened in the market, what kind of vote of confidence is that for management?

 

[Zybalto]

I’m hoping the upside on Murray and Samsonov pan out but the whole idea that we need to punch down on Campbell and suggest we were a 115 point team with below average goaltending doesn’t work for me. At various points in the upcoming season we will need Murray and Samsonov to give us November-Campbell type goaltending.

Considering the team in front, Murray's 11 starts between Jan. 8th and the end of Feb. resulting in a .940 arnt far off Campbell's 11 in November so he's shown he's capable.

Gotta stay healthy.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Objectivity should be the goal.

As Woody Allen said, objectivity is subjectivity.

 

[Leaf Fans]

So if Bomber endlessly crapped on Campbell that would make him a positive poster ?

No

 

[Mess]

I’m hoping the upside on Murray and Samsonov pan out but the whole idea that we need to punch down on Campbell and suggest we were a 115 point team with below average goaltending doesn’t work for me. At various points in the upcoming season we will need Murray and Samsonov to give us November-Campbell type goaltending.

I suspect a lot of Leaf fans are putting a lot of weight when talking upside behind the fact Murray won Cups on a different team many years ago.

Some believing that historical result outcomes increase current odds for success. .Which isn't true as a goalie with Zero Cup wins has the same odds as one that has won it in the past . Just ask Darcy Kuemper who won his 1st Stanley Cup beating 2 X Cup winning goalie Vasilevskiy the reigning Conn Smythe holder.

Can anyone name a single goalie that won a Stanley Cup with one team and then went on to hoist one again on a different team?

I can name dozens of Cup winning goalies that changed teams and failed. Heck I can even name Leaf ex-goalies that failed miserably thereafter, as in Jean-Sebastien Giguere won a Stanley Cup & Conn Smythe in Anaheim with GM Burke, and he brought him to Toronto in 2009-10 Result (Missed playoffs) & 2010-11 (Missed playoffs) ..

- Edmonton Oilers Grant Fuhr won 5 Stanley Cups before the Leafs brought him to Toronto to solve their goaltending issues in 1990-1991 (missed playoffs) & 1991-92 (missed playoffs & trade him to Buffalo mid season) and went with young inexperienced Felix Potvin who lead them to final 4 in 1992-93 and 1993-94.

- Eddie Belfour was a standout goalie with Chicago but went on to win a Stanley Cup in Dallas in 1998-99 .. Leafs brought him in to replace Cujo in 2002-03 (lost in round #1) 2003-04 (lost in round #2) ** Leafs last playoff series win. 2005-06 (missed playoffs)

Totals: 3 ex Cup winning goalies .. Results: Before Toronto 7 Stanley Cups ... With Toronto in 7 seasons .. Missed playoffs 5 times + lost in round X 1 and lost in round #2. Only 1 single playoff series win combined.

Fans are attaching their hopes to an ex-Cup winning goalie Matt Murray who is coming to Toronto with some of the worst stats among all goalies the past 3 seasons.



Lets hope those stats don't result in "Missed Playoffs" like was the case the majority of the time when ex Cup winning goalies was the "hope and the upside". Because based on those stats that is my fear.

 

[Gallagbi]

I’m just saying the quiet part out loud for people who want to diminish Campbell’s game in retrospect. And it’s not doing what you think it is.

Lol, please tell me more about what i think.

I mean we could read it for accuracy, but story time with Stephen has a nice ring to it.

 

[Stamkos4life]

So if Bomber endlessly crapped on Campbell that would make him a positive poster ?

If you crap on Campbell, Freddie, Babcock, Lou, Marleau, the refs, ect, you are considered a good, positive poster.

But if you crap on dubas you're considered negative and a bad poster.

 

[Stephen]

Considering the team in front, Murray's 11 starts between Jan. 8th and the end of Feb. resulting in a .940 arnt far off Campbell's 11 in November so he's shown he's capable.

Gotta stay healthy.

I was saying back in February it might make sense to dump both Leaf goalies and start brand new so this new Murray Samsonov thing is a fine change. But we need our goalies to be independently strong and not a pure product of being carried by the Leafs.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I suspect a lot of Leaf fans are putting a lot of weight when talking upside behind the fact Murray won Cups on a different team many years ago.

Some believing that historical result outcomes increase current odds for success. .Which isn't true as a goalie with Zero Cup wins has the same odds as one that has won it in the past . Just ask Darcy Kuemper who won his 1st Stanley Cup beating 2 X Cup winning goalie Vasilevskiy the reigning Conn Smythe holder.

Can anyone name a single goalie that won a Stanley Cup with one team and then went on to hoist one again on a different team?

I can name dozens of Cup winning goalies that changed teams and failed. Heck I can even name Leaf ex-goalies that failed miserably thereafter, as in Jean-Sebastien Giguere won a Stanley Cup & Conn Smythe in Anaheim with GM Burke, and he brought him to Toronto in 2009-10 Result (Missed playoffs) & 2010-11 (Missed playoffs) ..

- Edmonton Oilers Grant Fuhr won 5 Stanley Cups before the Leafs brought him to Toronto to solve their goaltending issues in 1990-1991 (missed playoffs) & 1991-92 (missed playoffs & trade him to Buffalo mid season) and went with young inexperienced Felix Potvin who lead them to final 4 in 1992-93 and 1993-94.

- Eddie Belfour was a standout goalie with Chicago but went on to win a Stanley Cup in Dallas in 1998-99 .. Leafs brought him in to replace Cujo in 2002-03 (lost in round #1) 2003-04 (lost in round #2) ** Leafs last playoff series win. 2005-06 (missed playoffs)

Totals: 3 ex Cup winning goalies .. Results: Before Toronto 7 Stanley Cups ... With Toronto in 7 seasons .. Missed playoffs 5 times + lost in round X 1 and lost in round #2. Only 1 single playoff series win combined.

Fans are attaching their hopes to an ex-Cup winning goalie Matt Murray who is coming to Toronto with some of the worst stats among all goalies the past 3 seasons.



Lets hope those stats don't result in "Missed Playoffs" like was the case the majority of the time when ex Cup winning goalies was the "hope and the upside". Because based on those stats that is my fear.

I would definitely want a goalie who has won before or one who has carried his team to some great playoff runs. It is rare to win a Cup. The Leafs haven't won one since 1967. Naturally, I, for one, am putting a lot of weight behind it. I am not going to support another team. BTW Grant Fuhr was trade in January of 93 and netted the Leafs a 50 goal scorer, Darren Puppa and a first rounder that turned out to be #12 ( we drafted Kenny Johnson with that pick)

 

[Stephen]

Lol, please tell me more about what i think.

I mean we could read it for accuracy, but story time with Stephen has a nice ring to it.

If you take the position that the goaltending in 2021-22 was "below average" with Campbell, what does it say about the GM who put the season into hands, whose only deadline move was trying to sign Harri Sateri? We can only hope Dubas got it right this time with Murray and Samsonov, but you can't kick Campbell in the butt without throwing the GM who put him in the Leaf net.

(For the record, I think Campbell was fine and it was ok for Dubas to have trusted the playoffs to Campbell).

 

[Gallagbi]

If you take the position that the goaltending in 2021-22 was "below average" with Campbell, what does it say about the GM who put the season into hands, whose only deadline move was trying to sign Harri Sateri? We can only hope Dubas got it right this time with Murray and Samsonov, but you can't kick Campbell in the butt without throwing the GM who put him in the Leaf net.

(For the record, I think Campbell was fine and it was ok for Dubas to have trusted the playoffs to Campbell).

It says the GM bet on a goalie who under performed down the stretch. He opted not to pay the price to upgrade in net, just like he passed on forward depth in Hagel and the scoring of our depth forwards also hurt us.

It feels like you're trying to tie all decisions back to the GM either being good or bad. Dubas has done some good and sone bad. Goaltending has been a weakness with him.

 

[Stephen]

It says the GM bet on a goalie who under performed.

So, why was our GM betting our season on a critical position with a $1.65 million goalie when he could have made a longer term fix at the 2020-21 offseason?

The more Campbell is kicked in the butt, the bigger the questions involving why the Leafs trusted him in the first place.

 

[Gallagbi]

So, why was our GM betting our season on a critical position with a $1.65 million goalie when he could have made a longer term fix at the 2020-21 offseason?

The more Campbell is kicked in the butt, the bigger the questions involving why the Leafs trusted him in the first place.

He believed in Campbell. That didnt work out and he ended up with below average starting goaltending for $1.65M. Its right to question Dubas and his handling of the goaltending last year. Its also fair to question the ones hes brought in this summer IMO.

I'll add that i understand the belief in Campbell this past summer (2021) even if it was a gamble they lost. It felt like they re-evaluated throughout the year but didnt pay the cost to upgrade at the deadline when they saw their division load up.

 

[Captain Crunch]

I'm going to take a wild guess here and say you took the last 3 years because if you took the last 1/2/4/5 years, the numbers for Murray/Samsonov would look better and thus wouldn't suit your agenda. Am I wrong?

I think he used 3 years because he wanted to show the effect Keefe’s systems had on the goalies.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Can anyone name a single goalie that won a Stanley Cup with one team and then went on to hoist one again on a different team?

- Patrick Roy with Montreal (in 1986 & 1993), then Colorado (1996 & 2001).
- Terry Sawchuk did it with Detroit (1950, ’52, ’54, ’55) & Toronto (1967).
- Mike Vernon with Calgary (1989) & Detroit (1997).

 

[IPS]

But hey, im still up for that over/under 86.5 point bet if you want to measure dicks on stats.

What's this 86.5 point bet? Fill me in, does Mess figure the Leafs are going to finish the season with around 86 points?

 

[Gallagbi]

What's this 86.5 point bet? Fill me in, does Mess figure the Leafs are going to finish the season with around 86 points?

@Mess believes were an 86 point team if the new guys perform like last year. Quote below for reference.

"The downgrade from Campbell & Mrazek to Murray & Samsonov would have resulted in -29 point reduction and non playoff team and just slightly above a .500 hockey team based on 2021-22 results"