Combined Goalie Discussion thread

[Byron Bitz]

It is a gamble and the gamble is on Murray and Murray alone. Unless Murray works out the Leafs still have a goalie problem. If Murray craps the bed and Samsonov is good what happens? Samsonov needs a new contract and is eligible for arbitration. Leafs will be hard up against the cap and will have to spend assets to move Murray to free up cash for Samsonov. Yes Leafs have about 15.5M coming off the books next year but its across 10 guys including samsonov and Bunting. Either Murray works or Leafs will have to move assets to get out from the last year of that contract.

The only way this gamble works is if Murray is at least adequate. He hasn't been adequate for a prolonged stretch since 2018-19.

If it only cost a 3rd to move him when he had 2 years left then it would cost even less than a 3rd to move him next offseason when he’s only got one year left so I’m not too worried about that 5th round pick

 

[The Iceman]

The underlying numbers of their goalie personal stats over the last 3 seasons suggests Leafs are undertaking a very high risk reclamation project here.

Leafs new goalies have statistically been among the bottom 12 ranked in the league.

Going to add a new level of stress and intrigue this season to see how this plays out.

Don't worry, 2 lottery tickets have been purchased.

If required break glass, and a solid tender can be acquired before the trade deadline.
EZ

 

[as Pure as Evil]

on another note any idea when we will start getting some photos of the new goalies gear and masks

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

High risk high reward. With a new goalie department anything is possible.

 

[Menzinger]

It is a gamble and the gamble is on Murray and Murray alone. Unless Murray works out the Leafs still have a goalie problem. If Murray craps the bed and Samsonov is good what happens? Samsonov needs a new contract and is eligible for arbitration. Leafs will be hard up against the cap and will have to spend assets to move Murray to free up cash for Samsonov. Yes Leafs have about 15.5M coming off the books next year but its across 10 guys including samsonov and Bunting. Either Murray works or Leafs will have to move assets to get out from the last year of that contract.

The only way this gamble works is if Murray is at least adequate. He hasn't been adequate for a prolonged stretch since 2018-19.

Samsonov is an rfa with a low qualifying offer. So keeping him while they figure out how to clear up a bit of capspace in this scenario is fairly easy. Then it just becomes a matter of where the money comes from, and there's always a way to make room for 2-3 extra million if push comes to shove

 

[Razz]

Well, considering the trainwreck goaltending we had last season and despite that, still coming away with the best Leaf regular season of all time, I'll consider even league-average goaltending a huge win.

 

[andora]

Samsonov is an rfa with a low qualifying offer. So keeping him while they figure out how to clear up a bit of capspace in this scenario is fairly easy. Then it just becomes a matter of where the money comes from, and there's always a way to make room for 2-3 extra million if push comes to shove

In torontos case it would be letting someone go that might be worth keeping.. buntin engvall or kampf for example

 

[fancy lad]

Well, considering the trainwreck goaltending we had last season and despite that, still coming away with the best Leaf regular season of all time, I'll consider even league-average goaltending a huge win.

the Only barometer of success for the leafs this year will be a playoff series win and I think it will take more than average goaltending to get the done.

 

[Mess]

Well, considering the trainwreck goaltending we had last season and despite that, still coming away with the best Leaf regular season of all time, I'll consider even league-average goaltending a huge win.

Jack Campbell played in 49 games and won 31(11th best record), with a 2.64 GA/G (14th best), and .914 sv% (15th best overall). If you consider 14th-15th roughly in the middle of 32 teams stats then that was league average goaltending that we just got.

However you won't find league average goaltending among the Leafs new goalies if that is the range you were targeting.

&

 

[Leaf Fans]

Jack Campbell played in 49 games and won 31(11th best record), with a 2.64 GA/G (14th best), and .914 sv% (15th best overall). If you consider 14th-15th roughly in the middle of 32 teams stats then that was league average goaltending that we just got.

View attachment 582777

However you won't find league average goaltending among the Leafs new goalies if that is the range you were targeting.

View attachment 582778
&
View attachment 582773

Sure, if the statistics you are using for last year, are exactly the same this year.

 

[Razz]

Jack Campbell played in 49 games and won 31(11th best record), with a 2.64 GA/G (14th best), and .914 sv% (15th best overall). If you consider 14th-15th roughly in the middle of 32 teams stats then that was league average goaltending that we just got.

View attachment 582777

However you won't find league average goaltending among the Leafs new goalies if that is the range you were targeting.

View attachment 582778
&
View attachment 582773

And yet we spent four consecutive months watching our goalies put in game after game of way under 900. Outside of Jack's amazing November where he was a Vezina favourite, the remainder of his season was AHL level. Cambell's .914 doesn't even begin to tell the story.

I'll gladly take 82 games of .914, that would get us the president's trophy. That's a huge improvement over whatever trash last year was in net.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Sure, if the statistics you are using for last year, are exactly the same this year.

Or if Campbell getting a shutout in a 7-0 win in October brings the same amount of value that Campbell letting in 4 goals on 10 shots in April loses. If he had a stable .915 all year he'd be a Leaf right now.

Mess of course can't wrap his head around the fact that 2 months of .935 doesn't balance out 4 months of .890.

 

[Mess]

And yet we spent four consecutive months watching our goalies put in game after game of way under 900. Outside of Jack's amazing November where he was a Vezina favourite, the remainder of his season was AHL level. Cambell's .914 doesn't even begin to tell the story.

I'll gladly take 82 games of .914, that would get us the president's trophy. That's a huge improvement over whatever trash last year was in net.

I'll gladly take 82 games at .914 also.

Are you expecting to get those #s from the new goalies?

Here are the last 3 years combined SV% of new guys, comapred to the rest of the NHL.

Matt Murray in his last 85 games has a .899 sv% (tied for the 3rd worst) while Samsonov in his last 89 games has .902 sv% (tied for the 9th worst) league wide over the last 3 seasons.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I'll gladly take 82 games at .914 also.

Are you expecting to get those #s from the new goalies?

Here are the last 3 years combined SV% of new guys, comapred to the rest of the NHL.

Matt Murray in his last 85 games has a .899 sv% (tied for the 3rd worst) while Samsonov in his last 89 games has .902 sv% (tied for the 9th worst) league wide over the last 3 seasons.

View attachment 582803

Great so the goalies should be even better under Keefe and Dubas just like Campbell.

 

[TML Dynasty]

2 lottery tickets - worrisome/terrifying
Inside knowledge of Murray - not a bad thing
New goalie department- hopefully a positive
Improved D - positive

Exit plan - if Murray’s injury history comes back to bite us: LTIR and room to hopefully get another while we see how other lottery ticket works out - ok, uneasy but ok….

Samsonovs problems possibly identified and addressed by new department - hopefully new willingness to be coached - optimism

Basically my take on if.

We should all be uneasy. Great options didn’t seem to be there. Glad we aren’t handcuffing the team if it doesn’t work out. Worried about a wasted season for sure.

Let’s get behind our new guys til they give us reason not to.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you consider 14th-15th roughly in the middle of 32 teams stats then that was league average goaltending that we just got.

We received the 24th best goaltending last year. That's not league average goaltending.

 

[nuck]

2 lottery tickets - worrisome/terrifying
Inside knowledge of Murray - not a bad thing
New goalie department- hopefully a positive
Improved D - positive

Exit plan - if Murray’s injury history comes back to bite us: LTIR and room to hopefully get another while we see how other lottery ticket works out - ok, uneasy but ok….

Samsonovs problems possibly identified and addressed by new department - hopefully new willingness to be coached - optimism

Basically my take on if.

We should all be uneasy. Great options didn’t seem to be there. Glad we aren’t handcuffing the team if it doesn’t work out. Worried about a wasted season for sure.

Let’s get behind our new guys til they give us reason not to.

This^. I dont like the solution they chose but its done and unless you believe they were sifting through Murrays medicals to8 prove he was still injured, it makes a lot more sense to go with the potential upside until we see otherwise. I hope the boys protect Murray like a Faberge egg and he has the healthy year they traded for.

 

[29Potvin]

This^. I dont like the solution they chose but its done and unless you believe they were sifting through Murrays medicals to8 prove he was still injured, it makes a lot more sense to go with the potential upside until we see otherwise. I hope the boys protect Murray like a Faberge egg and he has the healthy year they traded for.

The up side I see with Murray is that he has won in the playoffs! He has shown that he has what it takes and come playoff time that's all that matters. Hot goalies in the playoffs make a world of difference and Murray has shown he has the metal makeup to go on a heater in the playoffs

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

The goalies will be better than last year - go ahead and bookmark this.

 

[Nineteen67]

the Only barometer of success for the leafs this year will be a playoff series win and I think it will take more than average goaltending to get the done.

They could win a round with average goaltending and not letting in “softies“ in clinching games, if, and it’s a big if, the entire team commits to playing playoff hockey.

 

[Stephen]

Decently enough to get sent down to the AHL

And given away with retention and a sweetener.

 

[ACC1224]

Mess learns how to cherry pick periods and collate stats and now we need a new thread so his opinion can be broadcasted above all others.

The goalies will be better than last year - go ahead and bookmark this.

In fairness, many 'cherry pick' stats here and a new thread was created because of the weeping in the other threads about a duplicate 'stat' post and how there should be one combined thread to avoid that.

 

[Mess]

Here are Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov's Career Statistics for reference.

 

[Dekes For Days]

a new thread was created because of the weeping in the other threads about a duplicate 'stat' post and how there should be one combined thread to avoid that.

There was all of one post about combining the threads, for the record. The better solution probably would have been to just not post the same bad stats across multiple threads.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

If were using gritty screenshots for our poorly backed arguments, here's my contribution.

Top goalie has 0 1st round wins, bottom goalie has 2 Cups and would have had a Conn Smythe if it wasn't for a legendary performance by a top 10 player of all time. Not to mention 10 rounds won as the starting goalie.