Confirmed Signing with Link: [COL] G Mackenzie Blackwood signs extension with the Avalanche (5 years, $5.25M AAV)

[Freaky Styley]

I’ll tell you what, I still think this is risky.

But when I realize that Oettinger just got an $8.2 million per year extension, along with Swayman, both are better than Blackwood, it’s not so surprising that Blackwood got this much.

That said, I think both of them probably got overpaid as well. They should probably be making a bit more than what Blackwood got on this deal, but not $8+ million.

I think you could make an agrument every year that all of the top paid goalies are overpaid, since there are Connor Ingrams or Charlie Lindgrens or Adin Hills each season getting a chance and running with it for a short period at least and putting up similar numbers over a season at a fraction of the price. But what we think doesn't really matter, the market is the market, and there's been a market shift with goaltending taking place.

 

[syz]

I think you could make an agrument every year that all of the top paid goalies are overpaid, since there are Connor Ingrams or Charlie Lindgrens or Adin Hills each season getting a chance and running with it for a short period at least and putting up similar numbers over a season at a fraction of the price. But what we think doesn't really matter, the market is the market, and there's been a market shift with goaltending taking place.

It's interesting because I feel like every team basically just wants their goalie to not be bad... but somehow it feels like that's actually become kinda difficult? And with further expansion looming it won't get any easier, which could result in otherwise "okay" goalies getting bigger deals.

 

[lionsDen]

It's interesting because I feel like every team basically just wants their goalie to not be bad... but somehow that feels like that's actually become kinda difficult? And with further expansion looming it won't get any easier, which could result in otherwise "okay" goalies getting bigger deals.

People for decades back to the 90’s (when I first started following the nhl)said expansion would dilute the product. I’m of the opinion that it hasn’t.*shrugs*

I think pad size has had a larger impact EDIT

 

[Shane Diesel]

Yes of course. They identify goalies. That’s what they do.

I bet the Avs have gotten as much out of the position when compared to the actual cap investment as any team in the league. Or close to it.

But hey, we can't all be geniuses like the NYI dropping $8.25 million a year for the 56th ranked goaltender in GSAx (43rd last year).

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

I bet the Avs have gotten as much out of the position when compared to the actual cap investment as any team in the league. Or close to it.

But hey, we can't all be geniuses like the NYI dropping $8.25 million a year for the 56th ranked goaltender in GSAx (43rd last year).

Pretend stats are funny.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Pretend stats are funny.

And you'd be the first poster out here pumping Sorokin's fancy stats if they supported your argument. Don't kid yourself or us.

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

And you'd be the first poster out here pumping Sorokin's fancy stats if they supported your argument. Don't kid yourself or us.

I did nothing of the kind.

 

[Shane Diesel]

I did nothing of the kind.

I'm not saying you did, I'm saying you would if they supported you. Please stay on topic.

 

[syz]

People for decades back to the 90’s (when I first started following the nhl)said expansion would dilute the product. I’m of the opinion that it hasn’t.*shrugs*

I think pad size has had a larger impact EDIT

I mean yea equipment changes and an overall increase in offensive talent aren't helping, but my point ultimately is that, whatever the reason, there might not even be 32 "okay" goalies in the league right now, and eventually there will be 2 more teams looking for one. There's already not enough supply to meet the demand and so you're going to see Mackenzie Blackwood getting 5x5.25.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I’m just happy that they identify goalies.

Have the islanders tried identifying any good hockey players lately?

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

I just hope Blackwood is the real deal. Would have preferred to give him 30 games before gifting out this new contract.

The positives is that Blackwood was a good goalie on his prior two teams playing behind Beer league blue lines.

Now that he has an NHL caliber defense in front of him with a generational defenseman he looks quite good.

 

[Hasbro]

Keumper has a caphit of 6. More and more it seems they should of made cap to keep him vs not

He was coming off that nasty eye injury in the playoffs. Reupping him at the time was at least as big a gamble as this contract.

 

[FreeToShareWithMeOk]

I just hope Blackwood is the real deal. Would have preferred to give him 30 games before gifting out this new contract.

The positives is that Blackwood was a good goalie on his prior two teams playing behind Beer league blue lines.

Now that he has an NHL caliber defense in front of him with a generational defenseman he looks quite good.

They probably didn't want to risk him going a run and getting 7x7 or something. Imagine he's rocking a .95 with the Avs 15 games in and puts off contract talks until the offseason

At this point it has been known that he's a good goalie for 2 years, they probably just needed a couple games to make sure he can be "good" on their team and wasn't a product of the Sharks' defense.

4 years/20 million is what he's probably worth but that overpayment won't kill them.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I've already asked you in a prior post if Grubauer should be considered a good goaltender based on his Vezina votes in 2021. Why have you ignored that question? I mean if Vezina votes are a major criteria and GMs are all knowing, we must make the logical conclusion that Grubauer is a pretty good goalie, correct?

But you can't say this out loud because it would make you look silly.



See above.

During his years in Colorado, Grubauer was a very good goalie when he was actually healthy. 113 games played, 66-30-10, with a .918 SV% and 2.38 GAA. His playoff numbers are the best among Avs goalies since Roy retired. And the year he was 3rd in Vezina voting was clearly the best he had in Denver. Which is probably why the Avs were trying to extend him for 5 years before Seattle offered a 6th year to poach him.

Obviously, he has not been the same level of goalie in Seattle, but that doesn't change how I judge his time in Colorado. Nor does it diminish the fact that he was one of the best goalies in the NHL in 2020-21.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Blackwood really only needs to be good for two seasons after this to make it manageable for the Avs. 5.25 mil is cheap when the cap will get to 100 mil in this contract’s term. A buyout after year three is 1.75 mil for four years which is easy to deal with. This is a solid bet especially when they only have a six team no-trade list associated with this contract.

 

[Oddbob]

Not sure why the rush. His value isn't going to increase much from this, and he has only played 4 games for them. Should have waited til trade deadline area or in other words a couple months.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Not sure why the rush. His value isn't going to increase much from this, and he has only played 4 games for them. Should have waited til trade deadline area or in other words a couple months.

As has been stated multiple times in this thread, your suggestion comes with considerable risk to Colorado. By the time the deadline comes around, Blackwood is just a couple of months from UFA. He could just wait it out. The AVS can’t risk losing him. This isn’t about getting the best term and AAV for the Avs. It’s about locking down a guy they think can be good enough before running the risk of him being enticed by UFA, other locations and other contract offers. The AVS have clearly scouted the guy and liked what they saw. You really think an extra 15 ish games is going to completely undo all their scouting and evaluation?

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Not sure why the rush. His value isn't going to increase much from this, and he has only played 4 games for them. Should have waited til trade deadline area or in other words a couple months.

We paid a high price for him. He was targeted for a reason, to re-up him. We don't have assets to pay this much every season for a goaltender.

 

[Hasbro]

Am I taking crazy pills or have teams traded for and then extended pending UFAs and RFAs after playing ZERO games for them?

 

[Reality Czech]

During his years in Colorado, Grubauer was a very good goalie when he was actually healthy. 113 games played, 66-30-10, with a .918 SV% and 2.38 GAA. His playoff numbers are the best among Avs goalies since Roy retired. And the year he was 3rd in Vezina voting was clearly the best he had in Denver. Which is probably why the Avs were trying to extend him for 5 years before Seattle offered a 6th year to poach him.

Obviously, he has not been the same level of goalie in Seattle, but that doesn't change how I judge his time in Colorado. Nor does it diminish the fact that he was one of the best goalies in the NHL in 2020-21.

Good teams make average goalies appear to be above average. We've seen it happen so many times. Grubauer has always been the same goalie. If the team is good enough overall, they may not need more than that.

 

[Tryblot]

Kuemper was very close to stealing the Blues series. For the Blues.

Just like Fleury did.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I mean yea equipment changes and an overall increase in offensive talent aren't helping, but my point ultimately is that, whatever the reason, there might not even be 32 "okay" goalies in the league right now, and eventually there will be 2 more teams looking for one. There's already not enough supply to meet the demand and so you're going to see Mackenzie Blackwood getting 5x5.25.

Exactly. And this is what most people are missing with the contract.

I don't think many argue that goaltending talent is dwindling (I started a thread on this a few years ago) while goalie payment is going up thanks to the few difference-makers out there. The state of NHL goaltending is in a fascinating place. A guy making league min could put up the same numbers as a guy making 11M. Yet at the same time there are only ~5 guys you can rely on year to year to play at a high level, an then about 15 more that are legit starters and then.. the rest.

 

[Oddbob]

As has been stated multiple times in this thread, your suggestion comes with considerable risk to Colorado. By the time the deadline comes around, Blackwood is just a couple of months from UFA. He could just wait it out. The AVS can’t risk losing him. This isn’t about getting the best term and AAV for the Avs. It’s about locking down a guy they think can be good enough before running the risk of him being enticed by UFA, other locations and other contract offers. The AVS have clearly scouted the guy and liked what they saw. You really think an extra 15 ish games is going to completely undo all their scouting and evaluation?

We paid a high price for him. He was targeted for a reason, to re-up him. We don't have assets to pay this much every season for a goaltender.

I get that I do, but lets say he puts up .899 level save percentage from now til then, you are now locked into a goalie that has played 4 games for you. Georgiev had a good start as well for you didn't he, and he went downhill pretty quickly. Blackwood started great for NJ and then went downhill and has only a short stretch here where he was consistently good. Not saying he won't be good for you and not saying this won't turn into a great deal, but just so quick to do so is what I don't like. This isn't a knock on Colorado but on all GMs always rushing into stuff and lots of it blows up in their faces.

 

[EdAVSfan]

I get that I do, but lets say he puts up .899 level save percentage from now til then, you are now locked into a goalie that has played 4 games for you. Georgiev had a good start as well for you didn't he, and he went downhill pretty quickly. Blackwood started great for NJ and then went downhill and has only a short stretch here where he was consistently good. Not saying he won't be good for you and not saying this won't turn into a great deal, but just so quick to do so is what I don't like. This isn't a knock on Colorado but on all GMs always rushing into stuff and lots of it blows up in their faces.

I understand your thought process here. But I think you’re not factoring in the Avs reality here. Let’s suppose you’re correct, and the Avs badly gambled. Then what? You select from the handful of options that exist that provide with the exact same uncertainty. The avs don’t have the assets to continue trading for goaltending. They're in a situation where the few assets they have, need to be used in fixing roster holes.
Because no matter what goalie they get, they run the risk that he could turn into a pumpkin. And then they have to spend assets again to simply re-roll the dice.

They’ve taken a chance. They’ve backed themselves into it. They’ve committed to one of the options. And now they have to hope they picked right.

Because if they keep wasting assets because the middling goalies keep faltering, then they’ll never build a good enough to try to win another cup in the small window they have left.

 

[Alienblood]

Adin Hill got 2 years at $4.9 million after winning the cup with Vegas.

And he's not as good.