Confirmed Signing with Link: [COL] G Mackenzie Blackwood signs extension with the Avalanche (5 years, $5.25M AAV)

[Osprey]

This reminds me of the $5M x 3 contract extension that LA gave Cal Petersen after only 54 NHL games. That ended up looking bad before it even started.

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

Is it Avs fans claiming that the scouts suck because they identified Georgiev as a guy with potential who might be worth a low risk, short term contract?

Sorry you’re upset. I heard a rumor that Avs fans were not happy with fourgiev.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Can’t imagine the Avs FO felt very comfortable about this one.

I just don’t understand how these guys with such a short track record with minimal if any success keep getting so much term.

 

[LOFIN]

Sorry you’re upset. I heard a rumor that Avs fans were not happy with fourgiev.

Yes, we were not. He was a good pickup for the price though, and it wasn't an egregious contract that he was given. He really was good in his first year. Last year he started trending downwards, and the mistake was made not making an upgrade during the summer.

This doesn't take away that it was a good bet and worked out at first.

 

[theVladiator]

Is it Avs fans claiming that the scouts suck because they identified Georgiev as a guy with potential who might be worth a low risk, short term contract?

From my point of view, the difference in contracts is most likely due to Georgiev being RFA at the time of signing, and Blackwood a UFA at the start of his extension.

But, there is a good chance Blackwood will work out extremely well for the Avs. And if he isn't working out, I do not think he would be so terrible as to become Campbell level anchor.

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

Yes, we were not. He was a good pickup for the price though, and it wasn't an egregious contract that he was given. He really was good in his first year. Last year he started trending downwards, and the mistake was made not making an upgrade during the summer.

This doesn't take away that it was a good bet and worked out at first.

Ok. Congrats on the Georgiev signing. I hope this one turns out just as well.

 

[Reality Czech]

Yup. And Georgiev put up a .918 SV% that first sesaon, and led the NHL in wins. And he only signed for 3 years at 3.4m AAV, a short term, prove it contract they pretty easily moved when he was no longer able to show enough. For what I expect from the scouts, they did a good job with Georgiev.

Just goes to show how meaningless sv% can be when evaluating goalies.

 

[gary559]

B-but GEORGIEV! Signing any player comes with risk that it will not pan out the way it was planned to, I'm sure that MacFarland and the Avs staff had seen enough to determine that this was a risk that they were willing to take. Blackwood said he was looking for term and I would bet on this contract to go well for at least 3 years, he's a very good goalie.

 

[Puckstop40]

Terrible contract. Georgiev 4.0

Small fix for accuracy.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Sorry you’re upset. I heard a rumor that Avs fans were not happy with fourgiev.

I'm one of those Avs fans that wasn't happy with Georgiev. But being unhappy with a player in the last year and a half of a cheap, short term and pretty easily dumpable contract doesn't mean the scouts did a horrible job in identifying him, and should never be trusted again.

 

[Bleedred]

I’ll tell you what, I still think this is risky.

But when I realize that Oettinger just got an $8.2 million per year extension, along with Swayman, both are better than Blackwood, it’s not so surprising that Blackwood got this much.

That said, I think both of them probably got overpaid as well. They should probably be making a bit more than what Blackwood got on this deal, but not $8+ million.

 

[Shark Finn]

This reminds me of the $5M x 3 contract extension that LA gave Cal Petersen after only 54 NHL games. That ended up looking bad before it even started.

Well, Blackwood has played four times that amount of games already.

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

I'm one of those Avs fans that wasn't happy with Georgiev. But being unhappy with a player in the last year and a half of a cheap, short term and pretty easily dumpable contract doesn't mean the scouts did a horrible job in identifying him, and should never be trusted again.

Yes. I agree. The scouts did identify him. And I congratulate the scouts on identifying others.

 

[Hasbro]

Sorry you’re upset. I heard a rumor that Avs fans were not happy with fourgiev.

They have had a couple hits.

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

They have had a couple hits.

Yes of course. They identify goalies. That’s what they do.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

I think both can be true that this deal is market rate while also being a bad deal, though. There are a lot of bad goalies on inflated contracts right now and Blackwood looks to be the next guy in the Grubauer/Jarry/Merzlikins/Petersen/Campbell group.

It's "market value" but the contract that goalies are getting based on "market value" are mostly shitty contracts that won't age well. Giving unremarkable goalies big contracts almost never pans out.

Why does Blackwood look to be in that group?

 

[Freaky Styley]

I think both can be true that this deal is market rate while also being a bad deal, though. There are a lot of bad goalies on inflated contracts right now and Blackwood looks to be the next guy in the Grubauer/Jarry/Merzlikins/Petersen/Campbell group.

It's "market value" but the contract that goalies are getting based on "market value" are mostly shitty contracts that won't age well. Giving unremarkable goalies big contracts almost never pans out.

The problem is that I have yet to see anyone with this stance offer a better alternative. The point is that guys capable of being starters are making at least 5M. The other guys are unproven rookies, career backups, or guys being paid over 5M.

Avs cap structure doesn't allow them to have a starter at a higher pay grade unless they do something drastic. To your point, handing out big contracts to goalies doesn't always pay off regardless of the player since it's a variable position year to year.

It was clear he was the best option available, and had they waited to sign him, he probably is earning 6M+ in the offseason after half a year with the Avs. Offer a realistic better alternative on the goalie market for the next 3 seasons and I'll buy that they made a mistake with the trade and contract. Avs tried to roll the dice in the bargain bin the last few years and didn't want to continue down that route with their window dwindling.

What naysayers are also choosing to ignore is that there's probably an equal chance that this guy puts up similar numbers to Sorokin/Shesterkin/Ullmark/Saros etc in and Avs sweater as there is that this will be an anchor deal. So far with the trajectory of his play in SJ and with the Avs so far, it's more likely it's a good deal that works out for both sides.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I’ll tell you what, I still think this is risky.

But when I realize that Oettinger just got an $8.2 million per year extension, along with Swayman, both are better than Blackwood, it’s not so surprising that Blackwood got this much.

That said, I think both of them probably got overpaid as well. They should probably be making a bit more than what Blackwood got on this deal, but not $8+ million.

The bigger cap hits are all a function of the cap going up. With the cap going up to $92.5m, Blackwood's extension will be about 5.7% of the cap in year 1. 10 years ago, 5.7% of the cap would have been $3.66m. 5 years ago it would have been $4.65m. Hard to say he's overpaid in that context.

As for Oettinger and Swayman, $8.25 AAV is 8.9% of a 92.5m cap. 10 years ago, it's $5.75m. 5 years ago, $7.25m. And in three more years, 8.9% of the cap will likely be over $9m.

I do agree that this is a risky contract, but I'd also say that about pretty much every goalie contract longer than 3 years. I also think it would be much riskier for the Avs to go into the off-season with the plan being to find a new, medium term starter that is better than Blackwood. For one thing, there's no one expected to be on the UFA market that fits that bill. For the other thing, there's no one available in the trade market that fits that bill and wouldn't cost a lot more than they already gave up for Blackwood. So, despite being risky, it's also the best available option.

 

[surixon]

Seems like a lot for a guy with a spotty track record. Might speak more to the current crop of NHL goalies then it does about Blackwood.

 

[lionsDen]

Seems like an over reaction. Like the ava. Like Blackwood. I would've waited longer.

If he kept like he’s playing now5.25 wouldn’t be on the table

Seems like an over reaction. Like the ava. Like Blackwood. I would've waited longer.

If he kept like he’s playing now5.25 wouldn’t be on the table

 

[ClydeLee]

Keumper has a caphit of 6. More and more it seems they should of made cap to keep him vs not

 

[syz]

I’ll tell you what, I still think this is risky.

But when I realize that Oettinger just got an $8.2 million per year extension, along with Swayman, both are better than Blackwood, it’s not so surprising that Blackwood got this much.

That said, I think both of them probably got overpaid as well. They should probably be making a bit more than what Blackwood got on this deal, but not $8+ million.

It's hasty if nothing else. Avs are a team that can survive with "good enough" goaltending, so maybe it ends up being fine... but also if you're that kind of team maybe you don't need to throw this much money and term at somebody so quickly. Rising goalie prices definitely plays a part but they probably could've given it a few more months here at least.

 

[Shane Diesel]

When the anonymous strangers on the internet are saying essentially the same things that the GMs said with their Vezina votes, why should I disagree with them?

I've already asked you in a prior post if Grubauer should be considered a good goaltender based on his Vezina votes in 2021. Why have you ignored that question? I mean if Vezina votes are a major criteria and GMs are all knowing, we must make the logical conclusion that Grubauer is a pretty good goalie, correct?

But you can't say this out loud because it would make you look silly.

Or are you one of those people who think trusting the experts isn't a good thing?

See above.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Yes of course. They identify goalies. That’s what they do.

What do you want people to say? We've taken some swings and missed on a lot of them. We also won a cup within the last several years under this model.

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

What do you want people to say? We've taken some swings and missed on a lot of them. We also won a cup within the last several years under this model.

I’m just happy that they identify goalies.