Confirmed Signing with Link: [COL] G Mackenzie Blackwood signs extension with the Avalanche (5 years, $5.25M AAV)

[JoeSakic13]

I think it was a big miss by San Jose/Grier for not converting that 2nd to a 1st contingent on contract extension. If they're extending him, that means he's playing well for them and it's working out well.

Disagree.

They bought low (6th rounder) and sold high on him. They weren’t gonna return a 1st rounder on him. So they got a 2nd and a solid middle 6 guy.

I’m thrilled Colorado landed Blackwood, but it’s hard to not be happy for San Jose’s asset management during this.

 

[Murzu]

It should also be noted that the Avs effectively targeted a guy that would be a good fit. They tend to bleed high danger chances and that's what Blackwood is best at.

Rebound control is something Blackwood has been awesome with when playing in Avs sweater. Interesting stats.

 

[John Mandalorian]

It should also be noted that the Avs effectively targeted a guy that would be a good fit. They tend to bleed high danger chances and that's what Blackwood is best at.

Question: if you’re following JFresh, why do you need to be told that he’s a goalie? Are nature photography lovers also finding JFresh and following him? Weird clarification.

 

[Oneiro]

Question: if you’re following JFresh, why do you need to be told that he’s a goalie? Are nature photography lovers also finding JFresh and following him? Weird clarification.

You misunderstand. That's his way of saying that the player is unremarkable.

 

[ninetyeight]

Oh wow, good for Blackwood!

Most goalies are so inconsistant that I'm always surprised to see GMs agreeing on long term contracts (unless we're talking about Vezina finalists). I think the AAV is pretty high but at 2 year term this would look way less risky.

The Devils fan base kinda turned on him during covid, he initially refused to take the shot and was struggling with mental side of the game as well as injuries. And I kinda felt bad for him, so I'm happy to see him cash in. Quite surprised by the Avs mgmt to not only accept a deal this big, but to do it so soon. Every nhl goalie can get hot for a season or two, but to stay as a good starter for 5+ years and handle all the pressure and adversity, especially in playoffs, is much more rare.

 

[Shane Diesel]

To hand Blackwood this deal after 5 games?? You’re just asking for problems. He’s 28 and he’s been a sub 900 goalie most of his career. Why such a hurry? Are they that shell shocked? Goalies like Alex Lyon are smiling tonight as they prepare for free agency.

As has been pointed out numerous times, the Avs made it known they were interested in extending him almost as soon as they acquired him. So no, their due diligence was his entire career, not five games.

Whether the Colorado FO made a good decision remains to be seen, but the "five game" thing is objectively wrong.

If you don’t think these are fair comments, not sure what to tell you. It’s exactly what most people are thinking. Including a lot of Colorado fans.

The contract will be 17th in the league next season. If you don't think $5 million per year is now standard for average play then you aren't paying attention.

The less I know the more I'm sure of it.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Also lol at Keumper and Grubauer's "years of high level of play" then shitting the bed immediately on their new teams.

Grubauer's advanced stats were actually never that impressive with the Avs. Go take a look if you don't believe me, you might actually learn something. Also, Kuemper put up very competitive numbers with Arizona before his time in Colorado. As usual you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Doesnt this guy kinda suck?

Not at all. He has played behind some historically bad defensive teams. Check out the Devils' defense corps during the COVID years and prior. That he managed to win 22 games in 2019-20 is a minor miracle.

His one negative is some misfortune when it comes to staying healthy. Any time he started to get in a groove he seemed to get injured.

 

[Hasbro]

I think it was a big miss by San Jose/Grier for not converting that 2nd to a 1st contingent on contract extension. If they're extending him, that means he's playing well for them and it's working out well.

That's not allowed anymore.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Tonight aside, it's confusing me that people are saying this is a bad deal or that the Avs could have signed him for less.

As others have pointed out, he's set to be the 17th highest paid goalie next year. For any goalie that has shown he can handle a starters load, they are earning at least 5M on UFA deals.

Kuemper
Daccord
Grubauer
Hill (had just won cup, started the POs as a backup)
Jarry
Campbell
Ullmark
Swayman
Korpisalo
Shesterkin
Saros

And UFAs rarely sign for under 3 years, especially starting Gs. So you might not like the player, or like the contracts to most of the above players, but it's objectively false to say it's not market value for a starting goalie. It's the new market and someone would have paid him near that amount regardless.

The Avs made their choice who they wanted as their 5M man, and it seems like a good bet so far. They've tried the bargain bin for goalies the last few years and learned their lesson. They also can't afford to pay a goalie any more without drastically altering their cap makeup, and had they waited, Blackwood would have likely played himself out of the Avs price range. Best to get him locked up before his stats begin to inflate on a much better team.

Given the moment in time, can the people claiming this is a bad deal come up with a realistic better option for this season and next? The only option I see is maybe Askarov, but that would not be without its risk and inherent price, and they certainly inquired. It's a bit perplexing so many think this is such a bad deal for them.

I think both can be true that this deal is market rate while also being a bad deal, though. There are a lot of bad goalies on inflated contracts right now and Blackwood looks to be the next guy in the Grubauer/Jarry/Merzlikins/Petersen/Campbell group.

It's "market value" but the contract that goalies are getting based on "market value" are mostly shitty contracts that won't age well. Giving unremarkable goalies big contracts almost never pans out.

 

[Legion34]

Rebound control is something Blackwood has been awesome with when playing in Avs sweater. Interesting stats.

Is there any actual proof or transparency regarding any of these numbers?

anyone can make a model. Does it actually predict player performance other than what we can all say beyond basic stats?

 

[The Pwnerer]

If he keeps this up, he's making team Canada.

 

[EdAVSfan]

This makes no sense. NFL RBs don’t get 5 year deals unless they are elite. Blackwood isn’t anywhere close to elite, borderline starter quality with definite injury concerns. Move makes zero sense from the Avs perspective

FFS, seriously? Blackwood is going to be paid like an AVERAGE starter when his deal kicks in. 17th in AAV. And he wlikely move down the list over the years. Tell me, in NHL terms, is 5 years and 5.25M per ELITE money and term for goalies in the NHL? This is a completely pointless argument you’re making and it has nothing to do with what I’m saying.
In general, the Avs believe their average goalies to be interchangeable. Kuemper, Georgiev, Grubauer, etc. They don’t believe in getting the best goaltending or paying for the best because they believe several guys are interchangeable and provide reasonably the same job. That’s how the Avs treat the goaltending position like NFL running backs.

I’m not comparing the financials. That would be absolutely pointless as the 2 leagues have very different rules.

I’m glad you think it makes zero sense from the Avs perspective. The AVS management thinks it makes sense, and majority of Avs fans seemingly think it makes sense.

Makes sense to me too. Is it possible that there could be good reasoning behind it despite you not believing so?

 

[Face Of Bear]

Terrible contract. Georgiev 2.0

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

It's almost like he's played like 200 NHL games mostly on bad teams. Good thing we have people paid to watch games that are called scouts.

Those scouts brought you Georgiev.

 

[Raistlin]

5.25.... that's Demko money.

 

[Reality Czech]

the 24 games this season are definitely much more indicative of his skill and predictive going forward than the previous 124 games where he was under a .900 SV%

Come on, he's played well for 5 games. Give him the Vezina.

Is there any actual proof or transparency regarding any of these numbers?

anyone can make a model. Does it actually predict player performance other than what we can all say beyond basic stats?

I agree, some people act like these data sheets are the end-all be-all to evaluate players.

 

[LOFIN]

5.25.... that's Demko money.

The fact that Demko is making that on an old contract doesn't mean that's his actual value. Don't be stupid.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

5.25.... that's Demko money.

So do you think Demko is worth 5.25 or are you just pretending to be stupid?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

That's not an assumption, any more than it's an assumption that one can compare goalies with any metrics. I don't know what you mean by "we can't actually measure the expectations, so there is no way to confirm if any of the various formulas usually produce the correct answer." What would the "correct" answer be?

It seems that you're saying that because there is no definitive "good_goalie" response variable, GSAx is also not a good metric to measure goalie performance with. Because if there were a "good_goalie" variable, you could just see if GSAx is strongly correlated with it, or at least more strongly correlated than traditional metrics.

It might be true that GSAx is a poor proxy for "good_goalie", but saying that it makes fancy calculations and assumptions really just saying there is no way to measure goaltender performance, as metrics such as save percentage, GAA, Wins, etc. are undeniably more flawed, and also have no "good_goalie" to compare to.

I frankly don't see why it would be any worse than the eye test, which is famously poor and enormously subjective. If a goalie plays well according to a person, and it produces no tangible evidence, then that eye test is really just vibes.

Yes, it absolutely is an assumption. You're assuming that the information being put into the formula is correct. But, how do you check your work? How do you test whether the information being fed into the formula is producing an answer that should be trusted? Are you checking it against something that can actually be measured? Or do you accept it to be true without scrutiny?

I also don't have any issue saying that there is no single metric to measure goaltender performance. It's a very complex thing that probably will never be boiled down to a single, accurate number.

And when a single person's eye test is reflected by how the GMs voted for the Vezina, I'm good with calling the Vezina results "tangible evidence". The GMs are literally paid millions of dollars to evaluate talent and are much more qualified to make that determination than your unproven math formula. At the very least, I trust them a lot more than the expected goal predictions no one can prove are actually correct.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Yet you will rely on the anonymous opinions of strangers on the internet as dependable. Bizarre.

When the anonymous strangers on the internet are saying essentially the same things that the GMs said with their Vezina votes, why should I disagree with them? Or are you one of those people who think trusting the experts isn't a good thing?

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Already locked in? He proved himself in what 6 games in Colorado?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Those scouts brought you Georgiev.

Yup. And Georgiev put up a .918 SV% that first sesaon, and led the NHL in wins. And he only signed for 3 years at 3.4m AAV, a short term, prove it contract they pretty easily moved when he was no longer able to show enough. For what I expect from the scouts, they did a good job with Georgiev.

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

Yup. And Georgiev put up a .918 SV% that first sesaon, and led the NHL in wins. And he only signed for 3 years at 3.4m AAV, a short term, prove it contract they pretty easily moved when he was no longer able to show enough. For what I expect from the scouts, they did a good job with Georgiev.

Ok. Tell that to Ava fans.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Ok. Tell that to Ava fans.

Is it Avs fans claiming that the scouts suck because they identified Georgiev as a guy with potential who might be worth a low risk, short term contract?