Confirmed Signing with Link: [COL] G Mackenzie Blackwood signs extension with the Avalanche (5 years, $5.25M AAV)

[Hasbro]

Not only that, but the other major problem is that the number of suitors would go up. Part of the problem for the Avs was dealing with the cap and term number. The reality was waiting would provide a whole other slew of issues. Most posters assumed the Avs were just giving him way too much, way too early, and there was no risk of him getting THAT much more, even if he had a good season.

But the main problem with a really good season, is it piques more GM’s interest. And with that comes multiple contract offers. Some better, some worse, maybe even all of them could’ve been worse than the Avs offer. But now you’re competing for Blackwoods services not just on money, but on weather, location, income taxes, family (wife and children schools), etc.

The AVS believed he was the guy before they acquired him. It made absolutely no sense in waiting because potentially losing him in the offseason to another team was not an option.

It’s funny that this signing would have been met with less second guessing if the Avalanche had done so immediately after the trade before he even started for them as opposed to getting the further validation of four good games.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Question for the peanut gallery: if MacBlack keeps having the season he has and went to UFA at the end of this season, what kind of contract would he get on the open market?

Campbell managed 5M, so I doubt he gets less after cap inflation. But i also dont see him getting 7MM even if he continues this. I would say 6M for 5 years, so Avs might have saved .75M by moving on it early.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Campbell managed 5M, so I doubt he gets less after cap inflation. But i also dont see him getting 7MM even if he continues this. I would say 6M for 5 years, so Avs might have saved .75M by moving on it early.

No chance he'd sign for only $6M.

If he keeps this up he wins the Vezina and his next deal would start at $8M in negotiating.

 

[Casey Jones]

This guy was never the same after he got COVID. Good for him.

 

[Mattb124]

He’s doing pretty well (.939 sv% w/ the Avs) for not being very good….

 

[Freaky Styley]

No chance he'd sign for only $6M.

If he keeps this up he wins the Vezina and his next deal would start at $8M in negotiating.

No way he gets 8, but could have asked for 6.5 at least if he keeps up anything close to what he's shown. Saved at least 1.25M/season getting it done early

 

[redandyellowcametobe]

He’s been the Avs best player. Easily.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

No way he gets 8, but could have asked for 6.5 at least if he keeps up anything close to what he's shown. Saved at least 1.25M/season getting it done early

If he keeps up what he's done with the Avs so far for the rest of the year, he's going to win the Vezina... At that point he'd be coming off a Vezina trophy season and .930+ sv% year? Yeah, there's no way he gets less then 8. These guys all know where the cap is heading. This isn't the flat cap world of the last few years. We're gonna be at a $100M cap in 2 years. He'd get something in the $8-9M range for sure. That'd be about ~9% of the cap next year and 2-3 years it would be down to ~7% again.

He'd pretty much be able to point to the 8x$8M and 4x$8M that Ullmark/Swayman just signed for and use that as his starting point with the argument that the cap is already almost 10% higher then when those two signed.

The key here in all of this though would be the "If he keeps up what he's doing so far". Even with how impressive he has been, I have a hard time believing he continues to maintain the .940 sv% he's had with us so far and does that for another ~30-35 games.

I'd say more realistically is that he ends up settling into a very strong ~.920 with the Avs, probably still ends up a Vezina finalist tbh but loses out to Helly at least for those honors... And then at that point yeah I'd agree something in the $6.5-7M range is probably what he could have signed for.

It does already feel like the Avs might have gotten themselves a bargain on this contract though.


And a lot of people(Myself included as I had major doubts when we traded for him to be honest) may be looking foolish for shitting on this contract and Blackwood in general when the Avs signed him to it.

 

[Freaky Styley]

If he keeps up what he's done with the Avs so far for the rest of the year, he's going to win the Vezina... At that point he'd be coming off a Vezina trophy season and .930+ sv% year? Yeah, there's no way he gets less then 8. These guys all know where the cap is heading. This isn't the flat cap world of the last few years. We're gonna be at a $100M cap in 2 years. He'd get something in the $8-9M range for sure. That'd be about ~9% of the cap next year and 2-3 years it would be down to ~7% again.

He'd pretty much be able to point to the 8x$8M and 4x$8M that Ullmark/Swayman just signed for and use that as his starting point with the argument that the cap is already almost 10% higher then when those two signed.

The key here in all of this though would be the "If he keeps up what he's doing so far". Even with how impressive he has been, I have a hard time believing he continues to maintain the .940 sv% he's had with us so far and does that for another ~30-35 games.

I'd say more realistically is that he ends up settling into a very strong ~.920 with the Avs, probably still ends up a Vezina finalist tbh but loses out to Helly at least for those honors... And then at that point yeah I'd agree something in the $6.5-7M range is probably what he could have signed for.

It does already feel like the Avs might have gotten themselves a bargain on this contract though.


And a lot of people(Myself included as I had major doubts when we traded for him to be honest) may be looking foolish for shitting on this contract and Blackwood in general when the Avs signed him to it.

He wouldn't have got 8. No point arguing about it though, but Ullmark/Swayman are much different situations (track record mainly) and I think most people know he's not going to post .940 forever. You're right that he'll be in the Vezina conversation if he keeps this up but that already belongs to Helleybuck

 

[Alienblood]

He wouldn't have got 8. No point arguing about it though, but Ullmark/Swayman are much different situations (track record mainly) and I think most people know he's not going to post .940 forever. You're right that he'll be in the Vezina conversation if he keeps this up but that already belongs to Helleybuck

Swayman has no track record

 

[Freaky Styley]

Swayman has no track record

before this season, Swayman hadn't posted anything below a .911 sv% in any league he has played in over a 10 year span. This includes averaging a .924 sv% over 132 games since entering the NHL, not to mention a 0.922 sv% in the playoffs over 20 games, including 0.933sv% in his most recent run last year.

Blackwood is 2 years older, has had injury concerns, and in his last 145 games over the last 5 seasons has averaged a .899 sv% with no playoff pedigree. These things are not hard to look up.

I love Blackwood and what he's done in Colorado and he's a perfect fit, but let's not act like these guys deserve the same paycheck. Yes, he was a UFA and yes he was on worse teams, but no GM was going to go 8M x 5 for a guy with this record playing lights out only when he got on one of the best teams in the league. Plus, let's not act like he will sustain a .940 sv% the rest of the year, it's only a 12 game stretch.

In the end, we agree that the Avs were smarter signing sooner than later and a lot of doubters will eat crow. But if anything Jarry on waivers is going to make even more GMs more cautious with handing out big money to goalies. The goalie market is fascinating to me though.

 

[Alienblood]

I dont care about before the NHL, he doesn't have a record as a # 1 was bad last playoffs and is .898 now.

Korpisalo.has been better

 

[Freaky Styley]

I dont care about before the NHL, he doesn't have a record as a # 1 was bad last playoffs and is .898 now.

Korpisalo.has been better

So you're just ignoring the 130+ games I shared of each player and saying Swayman's playoff performance was bad last year!?

You'd prefer to judge him on a 33 game stretch after missing training camp? By what measure has Korpisalo been better? How about we just normalize admitting some of our claims are wrong and move on.

Otherwise it's just bad trolling

 

[Alienblood]

So you're just ignoring the 130+ games I shared of each player and saying Swayman's playoff performance was bad last year!?

You'd prefer to judge him on a 33 game stretch after missing training camp? By what measure has Korpisalo been better? How about we just normalize admitting some of our claims are wrong and move on.

Otherwise it's just bad trolling

I'm saying Swayman doesn't have a track record being a # 1 goalie.. He's never been one before.

Korpisalo's numbers are the same but has a winning record

If Blackwood was a Bruin he'd have playoff pedigree, he's been on shit teams.

I take Blackwood all day long over Swayman

 

[Freaky Styley]

I'm saying Swayman doesn't have a track record being a # 1 goalie.. He's never been one before.

Korpisalo's numbers are the same but has a winning record

If Blackwood was a Bruin he'd have playoff pedigree, he's been on shit teams.

I take Blackwood all day long over Swayman

And Blackwood has a track record of being a #1? He's only played over 40 games twice in his NHL career, averaging 30 games over 7 seasons.

Georgiev lead the league in wins last year. Wins are the most useless stat for goalie analysis - they have no power over how many goals their team scores

Considering their contracts, sure I'll take Blackwood. Purely from a talent/longevity standpoint, give me Swayman

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

This contract will age like rancid milk.

 

[Mattb124]

Blackwood is 2 years older, has had injury concerns, and in his last 145 games over the last 5 seasons has averaged a .899 sv% with no playoff pedigree. These things are not hard to look up.

Thankfully no one who is handing out contracts in the NHL is doing so based on statistics they looked up. They scout players by actually watching film and they know how well Blackwood had been playing for 1+ seasons prior to the trade.

The injury concern IMO is the only real detractor when it comes to Blackwood.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Thankfully no one who is handing out contracts in the NHL is doing so based on statistics they looked up. They scout players by actually watching film and they know how well Blackwood had been playing for 1+ seasons prior to the trade.

The injury concern IMO is the only real detractor when it comes to Blackwood.

This was from a previous discussion of Blackwood vs. Swayman. I have no issues with the Blackwood contract, I'm a fan. It was simply in response to a comment about Blackwood being able to demand 8M+ on the open market