Value of: Carey Price 50% retained to your team

[Habs Halifax]

You said go back and look at his numbers two years prior to the trade and then you use numbers from the year he was traded? Ok. Also, he finished 9th in the Vezina voting for 95/96. His Sv% and shots against per game were almost identical between the two teams.

Not the main point. The point is his regular season numbers prior to the trade were weak and it's the same with Price. The year he was traded matters cause it was more of the "he is not that good anymore" narrative. I think you might be overlooking the point by trying to undermine it but the evidence is clearly there and I know you see it

 

[Boondock]

Edmonton would be upgrading Smith to Price, right?

If Montreal is eating 50% they will likely ask for a first round draft pick which could be in 2023 or 2024. Montreal wouldn't need it immediately which gives Edmonton some opportunity to move other picks for other assets.

Edmonton has a lot of forwards hitting RFA but Puljujärvi is the only one that's gonna maybe cost them. Does Edmonton want out of the Ceci deal? Cap dumping him to Montreal would free up some space to add Price no problem but would also cost the Oilers more in the return. Maybe Edmonton asks for Kulak in the deal as well to get a UFA defenceman with some versatility.

So you got Price at 50% retained and Kulak
Going back is Smith, Ceci and a package involving picks and prospects that Montreal wants for the return. Lavoie for sure, Broberg or Bourgault in the Montreal package plus a first in 2023.

So Edmonton loses a bunch of their prospect depth but also frees up the Ceci contract, Smith next season, gets Kulak as a rental, and gets Price at an affordable price for the next couple years of playoff runs.

Montreal eats $5M a year but can afford it in a long term rebuild with Weber on LTIR. Ceci can be traded or can just help the Canadiens suck as they eventually move Petry as well and run Ceci and Savard on the right side blowing games for them. But they'd have a couple French Canadian prospects in the bag and a first round pick down the road to look forward to. Smith probably gets moved in the summer as a backup to a contender who can afford him being hurt.

None of this happens until Price returns and shows he can still play, but that's the only way I see this working. Montreal giving up a lot, eating some contracts in return, and Edmonton dumping a bunch of A/B prospects and a later first. Of course this being Hockey's Future I'm sure the idea of losing any prospects for Price is considered heresy but that's how I see this going.

Your post makes some very big assumptions.
1 - I don't know if Montreal would be willing to eat 50% of the Price contract. That is a lot of Cap for a long time. I know the Habs make money and the owners are rich, etc. etc. but there has never been any deal with that much retention for that long. So to automatically assume Habs would eat that much retention when it has never been done historically is potentially flawed.
2 - A 34 year old goalie with some health issues signed for the next 4 years raises a lot of red flags. He's been amazing at times through his career, but is he worth the loss of assets and the risk that is associated with an aging player signed to term.
3 - Ceci is 3rd amongst the Oilers D in time on ice. He has been a very important player for the Oil, and Kulak does not replace the 20+ minutes a night you would lose by trading Ceci. Weakening team defense to fit a goalie under the cap doesn't make a lot of sense from an Oilers point of view.
4 - The Oilers have $4.4 in cap space for next season with 12 players signed. Taking on Price would mean shipping out any and all depth the team has, and that has been one of the biggest issues with the Oilers during the McDavid era.
5 - The ask for 2 or more of the Oilers best prospects and a 1st is too much futures for the Oilers. They need those young players to come in and fill in the depth being so tight to the cap and I don't see the value for the Oil to give up that much futures. Price might be worth that ask, but I can't see the Oilers having any interest if that is the cost. The organization could see it very differently but this neutral fan thinks

 

[SmytheKing]

Not the main point. The point is his regular season numbers prior to the trade were weak and it's the same with Price. The year he was traded matters cause it was more of the "he is not that good anymore" narrative. I think you might be overlooking the point by trying to undermine it but the evidence is clearly there and I know you see it

Carey Price has played more than one round in the playoffs 5 times. In all but two of those seasons his regular season numbers were better. Both times where they weren't have been the past two years.

If you think he's defying the history of physics and that he's getting better at age 34 than he was at any time previously after coming off a surgery to repair a ligament in his knee and apparently having some addiction issues (god willing he's better and clear of those problems), go for it. I'm doubting any of that helps his trade value though and comparing him to Roy just makes this look silly.

 

[McSuper]

Price single handedly brings a team to the finals and he still gets disrespected to another level. Posts in this thread are treating him as if he’s a second tier goalie. Any contender that can afford him and trades for him, will win the cup if not at least reach the finals- of that I’m certain.

This just isn't true . You base value on the overall body of work and not on a short hot playoff run . Tell me again how he was in the finals ? I can tell you back to his below NHL starter numbers ( 1-4 with an 888sv%) . I love Price and hope he wins a cup . Just got to be honest , he is pass his best before date .

 

[Habs Halifax]

Carey Price has played more than one round in the playoffs 5 times. In all but two of those seasons his regular season numbers were better. Both times where they weren't have been the past two years.

If you think he's defying the history of physics and that he's getting better at age 34 than he was at any time previously after coming off a surgery to repair a ligament in his knee and apparently having some addiction issues (god willing he's better and clear of those problems), go for it. I'm doubting any of that helps his trade value though and comparing him to Roy just makes this look silly.

His trade value is his potential and ability to carry you deep in the playoffs. End of story. You can nit pick around the edges all you want. Anybody trading for a healthy Price knows what they are getting without looking at regular season stats. Just like Roy back when. I stand firm.

 

[Crazy Joe Divola]

Evander Kane

 

[John Mandalorian]

His trade value is his potential and ability to carry you deep in the playoffs. End of story. You can nit pick around the edges all you want. Anybody trading for a healthy Price knows what they are getting without looking at regular season stats. Just like Roy back when. I stand firm.

That's not accurate. There's a difference between somethings value and it's price (pun intended). If you insist on the same ask (ie a price of a 1st an A and B prospect), then it may take you a long time to find someone willing to pay that price. Value is different. Value reflects assessments of risk and relative worth and trade offs. It's often the case that the price greatly exceeds the value. And just because there might be a team willing to pay a higher price, that doesnt mean the acquiring team won't soon regret it. There are a ton of bad contracts in the NHL because there have been a ton of bad GMs.

 

[Habs Halifax]

That's not accurate. There's a difference between somethings value and it's price (pun intended). If you insist on the same ask (ie a price of a 1st an A and B prospect), then it may take you a long time to find someone willing to pay that price. Value is different. Value reflects assessments of risk and relative worth and trade offs. It's often the case that the price greatly exceeds the value. And just because there might be a team willing to pay a higher price, that doesnt mean the acquiring team won't soon regret it. There are a ton of bad contracts in the NHL because there have been a ton of bad GMs.

A late 1st, Grade A, and Grade B is not a monster asking price for Price at 50%. You are not accurate cause you seen the low price I have and think it's a high price. Price at 50% retention is a game changer but he needs to be healthy. Those futures have a decent chance at not being impactful NHL players and you ignore that part. Meanwhile Price can win a cup for a contender looking for goalie upgrades. Reality

Price contract is no longer bad after 50% retention. You are not accurate once again. If he was a UFA this summer, he easily get 3 or 4 years at $5.25M.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This just isn't true . You base value on the overall body of work and not on a short hot playoff run . Tell me again how he was in the finals ? I can tell you back to his below NHL starter numbers ( 1-4 with an 888sv%) . I love Price and hope he wins a cup . Just got to be honest , he is pass his best before date .

I'm pretty sure you were in the crowd saying the "Habs are nothing without Price" in the last playoffs. Now that we are open to moving him with 50% retention when healthy, the story changes? What a joke

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Two problems...

1) I don't trust anything you say about Price. You have been on here for years trashing him as a goalie. If you do trade him, you will have to give up a fair amount of your future.... especially if we retain a subtantial amount and give you an edge to win a cup like we did with Roy back when. Reality. You want to talk about Price's regular season numbers? Sure, go back and look at Roy's numbers in the 2 years prior to that trade.

2) You are grouping the Habs into one opinion. Habs fan base is massive and we don't have just one opinion. You know this but you have this seed in your head that we are all proposing Ryder/Halak/2nd offers. You clearly have a hate on for Habs fans and it's BS cause we don't all think the same

And this is exactly the kind of condescending, bad faith argument that leads to Avs fans being less than enthused to have the same conversation for the 3000th time. But, since you insist...

1. Roy was 3rd in SV% 2 years before the trade (93-94), and 3rd in Vezina voting that year. Over the 4 years prior to the trade, he never finished lower than 16th in SV% over a season. Even the year he was traded, his 0.907 SV% from the 22 games in Montreal would have finished tied for 13th best in the NHL (he actually finished 12th with a 0.908 SV%). Overall, he was 6th in SV% over the previous 4 seasons (50 games minimum) and had 2 Cups, 2 Smythes, 3 Vezinas and 4 Jennings by the time he was traded.

Price, on the other hand, has finished outside of the top 30 in SV% in 3 of the last 4 years, and hasn't been better than 14th best (20 games played minimum) since 2014-15. He has zero Cups, zero Smythes, 1 Vezinas, 1 Jennings, 1 Hart and 1 Pearson (all from 2014-15). Over the last 4 years, he's 39th in SV% (50 games minimum), tied with journeymen like Devan Dubnyk and James Reimer. Maybe I'm missing something, but what part of his last 4+ years is even remotely comparable to any part of Roy's career?

I also don't disagree that the cost to acquire Price would be very high, but that's mostly due to the retention necessary to reduce the negative effect of his albatross contract. And, his mediocre numbers over the last 4 years and the big question marks about his age/health/consistency make is extremely difficult to justify paying that much for him, when there are significantly cheaper options available who are close enough to Price on a regular basis.

And what part of pointing out his actual numbers (Reality?) do you think constitutes "trashing him as a goalie"? Should I just blindly accept the unsubstantiated assurances of Habs fans who promise he'll be better on a better team where he won't get exposed?

2. Yes, there are a ton of Habs fans. Should we be forced to have the same conversations with every single one of you before we're annoyed by the constant flow of repetitive trade proposals that comes from your fan base?

 

[Habs Halifax]

And this is exactly the kind of condescending, bad faith argument that leads to Avs fans being less than enthused to have the same conversation for the 3000th time. But, since you insist...

That's a two way street (bolded part). But you really do think all Habs fans are the same which is a flawed seed you have planted in your head. The old Halak and whatever narrative is getting old. You probably think I would also ask for Byram cause someone else has.... once again, you see it from one poster and think it's an entire fan base. I'm hard on you cause you are hard of us and think we are one voice. Drop that and we will have good conversations. At the moment, you deserve the condescending narrative.

BTW... good luck with your goalie search. "hot goalie" for the playoffs. I remember our conversation from years ago when you thought Grubauer was the one and you were looking at Price's regular season stats trying to devalue him while he is playing on team with flaws.

Who has better stats in the next 4 years? The old and over the hill Price or the younger Grubauer? Grubauer with a 3.17 GAA and a .866 Sv% with Seattle so far.

Price:
* Age 34-38
* 50% retention... $5.25M AAV

vs

Grubauer:
* Age 30-34
* $5.9M AAV

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

That's a two way street (bolded part). But you really do think all Habs fans are the same which is a flawed seed you have planted in your head. The old Halak and whatever narrative is getting old. You probably think I would also ask for Byram cause someone else has.... once again, you see it from one poster and think it's an entire fan base. I'm hard on you cause you are hard of us and think we are one voice. Drop that and we will have good conversations. At the moment, you deserve the condescending narrative.

BTW... good luck with your goalie search. "hot goalie" for the playoffs. I remember our conversation from years ago when you thought Grubauer was the one and you were looking at Price's regular season stats trying to devalue him while he is playing on team with flaws.

Who has better stats in the next 4 years? The old and over the hill Price or the younger Grubauer? Grubauer with a 3.17 GAA and a .866 Sv% with Seattle so far.

Price:
* Age 34-38
* 50% retention... $5.25M AAV

vs

Grubauer:
* Age 30-34
* $5.9M AAV

Wow, you're hitting all the greatest hits of these conversations, one after another. So far, you've made unsubstantiated claims that Price is somehow comparable to Roy, then resorted to building strawmen and attacking my character when proven wrong, and are now moving the goalposts to try to claim that Grubauer being bad on an expansion team somehow proves Price is worth giving up assets to acquire. All you need to do is pretend the Players Poll matters more than on ice results, and blame all of Price's failures on the team in front of him, and I think you'll have the complete set. I have to admit, I didn't think I'd enjoy another conversation beating this dead horse as much as I am...

 

[Gaud]

In that case, no one is going to invite you to "come on down" because The Price is Wrong.

You need to use the emoji

I would have countered with "I think Edm says to Gorton the same thing the doc said to Mr. Price when Carey was born; "Name your Price!""

 

[Habs Halifax]

Wow, you're hitting all the greatest hits of these conversations, one after another. So far, you've made unsubstantiated claims that Price is somehow comparable to Roy, then resorted to building strawmen and attacking my character when proven wrong, and are now moving the goalposts to try to claim that Grubauer being bad on an expansion team somehow proves Price is worth giving up assets to acquire. All you need to do is pretend the Players Poll matters more than on ice results, and blame all of Price's failures on the team in front of him, and I think you'll have the complete set. I have to admit, I didn't think I'd enjoy another conversation beating this dead horse as much as I am...

Price is comparable to Roy in terms of some fans trying to devalue star goalies struggling on teams with flaws. You think you dismissed it but you have not.

Lets see how this plays out if the Habs trade Price... Who has better numbers in the next 4 years. Grubauer was your boy bud! Now it's Kuemper. Who's the next potential "Hot Cheap Goalie" to bet on during your cup contending years?


Price:
* Age 34-38
* 50% retention... $5.25M AAV

vs

Grubauer:
* Age 30-34
* $5.9M AAV

 

[Gaud]

Remember when Patch was a horrible forward cause he didn't put up points in the playoffs?

ugh lol
Or the continual accusation that someone doesnt have heart unless he goes in front of net where it hurts, despite this having never been part of the player's style or not one of the tools that brought the player to the NHL

 

[General Fanager]

HFBoards " Habs rode Price all the way to the finals"

Also HFBoards " Price at 50% is untradeable and he is worthless"

Laughable......

 

[Boondock]

Price is comparable to Roy in terms of some fans trying to devalue star goalies struggling on teams with flaws. You think you dismissed it but you have not.

Lets see how this plays out if the Habs trade Price... Who has better numbers in the next 4 years. Grubauer was your boy bud! Now it's Kuemper. Who's the next potential "Hot Cheap Goalie" to bet on during your cup contending years?


Price:
* Age 34-38
* 50% retention... $5.25M AAV

vs

Grubauer:
* Age 30-34
* $5.9M AAV

Are you conveniently leaving out that the ask for Price at 50% from Habs fans is a 1st and 2 prospects. Grubauer cost the Kraken...cap space. According to this thread Price would cost cap space, a 1st, an A prospect and a B prospect at the minimum.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Are you conveniently leaving out that the ask for Price at 50% from Habs fans is a 1st and 2 prospects. Grubauer cost the Kraken...cap space. According to this thread Price would cost cap space, a 1st, an A prospect and a B prospect at the minimum.

That's not the point. I get that you have to pay to get Price (even at 50%). The point is some teams think Price is not worth it when he gives contending teams a real shot a cup while a few years ago, Grubauer was told to me that he was the solution and his regular season numbers are better than Price

Bookmark it. Price from 34-38 vs Grubauer from 31-34. This is not a simple as saying I want the younger goalie.

Easy to say Grubauer is he better choice last year or the year before when you look at stats only and ignore the team in front of them. Go ahead and try to say it now? I dare you

 

[Chet Manley]

Price @50% + Chariot @50%

for

Smith + Koskinen + Russell + '21 1st + '21 2nd + '22 2nd which changes to '22 1st if the Oilers make the SC finals

Just spit balling main parts. Give or take whatever. Koskinen + Russell + retention on Chariot expire at the end of the year. Oilers run with Price and a cheap Skinner for about the same cost as two 1b goalies. This is based on Price and Chariot's last playoffs and it would probably be a big gamble for the Oilers if they could match that play again.

 

[Habs Halifax]

How ridiculous does this sound...

Yeah, a healthy Price gives a contending team an edge to win a cup and I'll take the 50% retention but man... I have to give up a late 1st, Grade A, and Grade B prospect to get him? For futures that might bust or be depth players in the NHL? That's tough man, I pass.

Yeah, you went to the Cup finals but your nothing without Price.

 

[Spilot23]

How ridiculous does this sound...

Yeah, a healthy Price gives a contending team an edge to win a cup and I'll take the 50% retention but man... I have to give up a late 1st, Grade A, and Grade B prospect to get him? For futures that might bust or be depth players in the NHL? That's tough man, I pass.

Yeah, you went to the Cup finals but your nothing without Price.

A healthy Price could probably get that kind of offer. Not sure if Oilers would want to do it. Avs wouldn't after giving a 1st + Timmins. But are we sure that he's healthy? Yes futures might bust but so could Price since he hasn't played a game so far what if we get Price and never look the same he was? There are risks from both sides. The one acquiring him are IMO taking the bigger risk since they would give up assets and cap space. But I also understand Habs POV if they trade him and retain freaking 5M$ of course you want something valuable.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Price is comparable to Roy in terms of some fans trying to devalue star goalies struggling on teams with flaws. You think you dismissed it but you have not.

Lets see how this plays out if the Habs trade Price... Who has better numbers in the next 4 years. Grubauer was your boy bud! Now it's Kuemper. Who's the next potential "Hot Cheap Goalie" to bet on during your cup contending years?


Price:
* Age 34-38
* 50% retention... $5.25M AAV

vs

Grubauer:
* Age 30-34
* $5.9M AAV

So, when you said "You want to talk about Price's regular season numbers? Sure, go back and look at Roy's numbers in the 2 years prior to that trade.", you were really talking about how some fans try to devalue them? Really? Or did I forget about the mental gymnastics portion of these conversations? I guess I must have, since you're also now claiming that Grubauer's performance with an expansion team that's purposefully trying to tank is somehow evidence that Price is worth acquiring. Or are you trying to make the unprovable assertion that Price would have done better than Grubauer in Colorado and definitely won the Cup?

 

[DingDongCharlie]

If the Habs fans saying retention on Price won’t happen he’s absolutely a Hab till he retires. There’s not a team in the trading for a $10 goalie.

I won’t make an offer for Price at 50% cause the offer would be underwhelming so I see no point in it.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

How ridiculous does this sound...

Yeah, a healthy Price gives a contending team an edge to win a cup and I'll take the 50% retention but man... I have to give up a late 1st, Grade A, and Grade B prospect to get him? For futures that might bust or be depth players in the NHL? That's tough man, I pass.

Yeah, you went to the Cup finals but your nothing without Price.

I could also sign a guy who has never won the Cup as a UFA and keep my pick and prospects. Or is there some reason to believe that only Price can be good enough to win the Cup? Or is even healthy at this point?

Also, what's the issue with saying "the Habs would suck more without Price" and "Price isn't worth acquiring due to cost", since both are true?

 

[DingDongCharlie]

“Nobody wants Carey Price”. Oh HF don’t change.

Nobody wants the contract. Let’s not be disingenuous. If Price had a 5-6 million cap hit there would absolutely be a market