Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR/MTL] Habs accept Kotkaniemi offer sheet (1 year, $6.1M), 2022 1st, 2022 3rd [Part III]

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Penaltykiller17

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Apr 21, 2015
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However, let's assume that they're a serious cup contender at the deadline. They would want to:

1. Have 6mil in salary cap available so that they can fit rentals for the playoffs
2. Have the 1st and 3rd picks available so that they can trade them for rentals.


Hence, this argument actually is weak.Who knows? It'd still be a UFA situation which makes this here deal for only 1 year, which makes it terrible value.

GMDW has stated he doesn’t believe in giving up valuable assets for rentals unless it will lead to something long term. The only time Carolina’s given up a 1st at the tdl under the current regime was for Skjei, who had term and is still with the team. So, not a weak argument
 

japhi

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Jul 7, 2014
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Lol did you even see the goal that was scored. Freddy got caught on a wraparound and he wasn’t set. Sure let’s blame Kotka for that one.

Canes are 5-0… I think the team is happy with what’s going on

The puck came up his side, he was actually engaged in a board battle and lost. I wouldn't blame the goal on him but I guarantee Rod expects his wingers to clear the puck in that scenario. Not that it matters, and of course the Canes are happy. Amazing team to watch.
 

GIN ANTONIC

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The puck came up his side, he was actually engaged in a board battle and lost. I wouldn't blame the goal on him but I guarantee Rod expects his wingers to clear the puck in that scenario. Not that it matters, and of course the Canes are happy. Amazing team to watch.

He didn't have board or body position on the puck when it came his way. Bear blindly put it in a bad spot that made it unlikely for him to come away with it. Sure, you'd love for your player to win that battle but he was dealt into a pretty disadvantageous situation to come out with a positive result.
 

samsagat

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Jun 20, 2013
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But what is a market value contract for a 30 point bottom 6 winger with defensive issues? He doesn't even kill penalties.

I would add that he was heavily protected by Danault defensively. Getting most of his faceoffs in OZ against weaker opposition. Getting his fair amount of PP but still barely making the equivalent of 30 pts (on a 82 games schedule)...

So he's not effective defensively, not productive offensively (even when putting him in every favorable offensive situations) and not really steady in the physical play department.

Yeah, Carolina made such a good deal acquiring him...
 

Stubu

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Dec 16, 2015
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Who's going to trade value for a underperforming top 5 pick who will be pushing for $4M+ in a flat cap?
In a hypothetical trade beween Canes and a new team, why should the parties care where Habs drafted the player back in the day? They'de be looking pragmatically at recent performance and the future outlook for his progress. The trade value and the expected salary would be based on that, actually relevant stuff for the new team.

I mean, it's a good question, and Canes would have a hard time recouping what they paid to Habs, but why even bring up his draft position? It's just irrelevant in this scenario.
 

Beendair Donedat

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Dec 29, 2010
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No point in each fan base pissing on each other. The deal is done and each team has to live with it now. Time will tell how it all works out, as it usually does… No issues with Kotkaniemi from this Habs fan, he has good qualities and warts like every other player. I felt like he did not always get a fair shake in Montreal, and was often made the scapegoat for minor things - but he’s in Carolina now and wish the player (it not the club) lots of success.
 
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japhi

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I appreciate this conversation and find Canes fans pretty easy and reasonable to talk hockey with. I think this will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I still have this ending as a lose, lose, lose. Montreal loses a player they invested in at a key position, KK finds it hard to fit into the Canes lineup and drops in minutes, and Canes lose assets on a player that wasn't ready to step up.

What's interesting is KK could be the biggest loser, even with the big paycheck this year. Montreal replaced him with Dvorak, Canes are loaded with talent. KK taking a step back would not be good for his long term earnings. The key for him this year was taking that next step to a 45-55 point player and getting a long term deal or forcing the QO. But if he fizzles, there is no lucrative longer term deal or QO, he would be a question mark hitting FA.

The above is why this is so interesting. For a hockey scenario it is fairly complex, will slowly unfold and is fun to follow.
 

Stubu

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"Why would another team give him a big contract?" Because he's free and wouldn't cost any assets. Of course he might not get a -big- contract but that should inflate it. UFAs routinely get overpaid since they cost no assets.
UFAs don't routinely get overpaid, especially when they have any questions marks on them. (Like a young player drafted high but struggling in his development, then traded out after getting offer sheeted in.) Looking at the Free Agency thread, it's more like UFAs routinely get show-me deals. The rare big names sometimes get overpaid to lock them down long term, but even that is not a given.

You're assuming a pretty simplistic relation between trade value and contract negotiations. Spending no assets on a player does nothing to fitting him under the cap and the (competent) GMs know it.
 

japhi

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He didn't have board or body position on the puck when it came his way. Bear blindly put it in a bad spot that made it unlikely for him to come away with it. Sure, you'd love for your player to win that battle but he was dealt into a pretty disadvantageous situation to come out with a positive result.
That's fair, on his off wing as well. Was just saying he had an opportunity to impact that -1. Bear and Freddie definitely were at primary fault.
 
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GIN ANTONIC

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I appreciate this conversation and find Canes fans pretty easy and reasonable to talk hockey with. I think this will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I still have this ending as a lose, lose, lose. Montreal loses a player they invested in at a key position, KK finds it hard to fit into the Canes lineup and drops in minutes, and Canes lose assets on a player that wasn't ready to step up.

What's interesting is KK could be the biggest loser, even with the big paycheck this year. Montreal replaced him with Dvorak, Canes are loaded with talent. KK taking a step back would not be good for his long term earnings. The key for him this year was taking that next step to a 45-55 point player and getting a long term deal or forcing the QO. But if he fizzles, there is no lucrative longer term deal or QO, he would be a question mark hitting FA.

The above is why this is so interesting. For a hockey scenario it is fairly complex, will slowly unfold and is fun to follow.

If KK wants an impact role on the Canes he will have his opportunity moving forward. Trochek (2C) is a UFA after this year, same with Nino who slides up and down the 1/2/3 lines on the wing. Jordan Staal is a UFA after next season so that will be another situation to see where things are at. Even with guys like Jarvis, Rees, Drury, Bokk, Suzuki, looking to make the team over the next year or two there is definitely going to be opportunity if they earn it. Same with KK.
 

Stubu

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Yes I know all this. There are rumors the canes already have a cheapet extension in place. Bergevin already said publicly they would look into it if a cheaper long term deal is signed in early july
My bad, didn't notice you were looking at the no-trade explicitly from the Habs viewpoint until I read your comment again.

I guess this thread is going to drag on until January and that extension or other outcome... Goes to show how rare offer sheets are in the league.

About those outcomes outside a trade, I tried reading up on club elected arbitration and player elected arbitration and the walk-away options and the practical realities involved and just gave up.

It's certainly true that Bergevin avoided an iffy bit of uncertainty and complexity in next year's salary structure by letting it go. Dvorak's easy contract is definitely an asset in itself. (And I like the player.) But Waddell also seems to know what he's doing. Interesting business, all round.
 
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Stubu

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However, let's assume that they're a serious cup contender at the deadline. They would want to:

1. Have 6mil in salary cap available so that they can fit rentals for the playoffs

[...]

Notice how you're estimating Kotkaniemi's practical value at $100,035. Surely he's worth league minimum in the roster, if not more. ;)
 
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Scintillating10

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What could Habs get for their pick if its first overall? Traded on the draft floor of course. Where Wright likely can't stand pressure in Montreal.
 

japhi

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Jul 7, 2014
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How about every two days?

He looked pretty good last night, thought he had the tip on that screen.
 

GIN ANTONIC

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Aug 19, 2007
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How about every two days?

He looked pretty good last night, thought he had the tip on that screen.

We were talking about it on the Canes board. The two non-EN goals last night it was KK driving the net or posting up in front that definitely helped contribute.

He’s playing hard and doing the right things. Really feels a lot like when Trochek joined the Canes. Wasn’t showing up on the scoresheet but helping the team win. Once everything started clicking with timing and teammates he became a huge piece in the offense and team overall.
 
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admiralcadillac

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Oct 22, 2017
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The pathetic saltiness is so transparent. Has 3 points now, 1 less than 7.875 mil game buster Suzuki with 1 less game played and as everyone seems so sadly eager to point out, only playing 12-14 mins a game!!

Wow what impressive stats.
 

Oilslick941611

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Jul 4, 2006
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In a hypothetical trade beween Canes and a new team, why should the parties care where Habs drafted the player back in the day? They'de be looking pragmatically at recent performance and the future outlook for his progress. The trade value and the expected salary would be based on that, actually relevant stuff for the new team.

I mean, it's a good question, and Canes would have a hard time recouping what they paid to Habs, but why even bring up his draft position? It's just irrelevant in this scenario.
Draft position only matter from the day of the draft to about 5 years after, and only in conjunction with scout evaluation about weather or not a player will make the NHL. Once the player has been in the league draft position is a moot point.

That being said there is no way KK lives up to this contract.
 

japhi

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Jul 7, 2014
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These sample sizes are so small it's ridiculous to try and draw conclusions from them. Players go quiet for 5-7-10 game stretches....sometimes at the beginning of the season.

FWIW KK is at his career PPG. I suspect he gets better as the season goes on and finishes at 10g/15a or similar.
 
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McShogun99

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Aug 30, 2009
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This was more about revenge for Carolina, that’s why it’s a 1 year deal. It’s like paying a high 1st for a 1 year test drive. If it works out they resign him if not he’s free to go somewhere else.
 
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