Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR/MTL] Habs accept Kotkaniemi offer sheet (1 year, $6.1M), 2022 1st, 2022 3rd [Part III]

[Chrispy]

You and me and everyone else understands that he’s getting something in the $3M-$4M range on his next contract.

He can take that deal with the Canes or he can take it elsewhere. Why would he take it elsewhere if they’re offering it to him straight up? I don’t know. That’s his decision to make, much like his decision to take a QO rather than stay in Montreal.

Canes are not obligated to do anything and neither is he. If he leaves, then it is what it is. Canes understood that when they signed the QO.

Exactly. He can hope to get more on the open market, but if he does not perform well this year he may not even get $3M on the open market in the off-season. And if he does, he could easily end up in a major rebuild rather than on a playoff team.

Does he think Carolina has done a good job in working on his development? Does he think he can develop better elsewhere? Does he think he's better off playing major minutes at center anywhere, or playing less time at wing and learning from veteran centers, as he is this year? All of these are questions he needs to answer in addition to what the AAV and length are on his next contract.

Lots of questions that need to be answered that aren't just about Kotkaniemi's next contract, but about his long-term career in the NHL.

 

[Burke the Legend]

You and me and everyone else understands that he’s getting something in the $3M-$4M range on his next contract.

He can take that deal with the Canes or he can take it elsewhere. Why would he take it elsewhere if they’re offering it to him straight up? I don’t know. That’s his decision to make, much like his decision to take a QO rather than stay in Montreal.

Canes are not obligated to do anything and neither is he. If he leaves, then it is what it is. Canes understood that when they signed the QO.

I guess it depends on what's on the table come Jan 1. I agree it's likely KK takes a big extension then if offered, money in the bank.

BTW it was Montreal's choice to let him walk, not KK's, they could have match. The price the Canes paid for him meant they basically expect him to break out and become an impact player in the next 1-3 years. The Habs clearly weren't as certain having seen him up close for 3 years, so they took the draft picks + cap space and moved on.

Time will tell which org was correct. BTW I'm not some kind of hater, I like KK and don't blame him for taking the offer. Having watched him closely for past 3 years, he has potential, but he still has a lot of flawed areas that need improvement. Is it possible? Sure, but it's a long list of things that need to come together for him to reach that potential so I can see why the Habs decided to take the assets instead and basically turn it into Dvorak (a still young, but more proven, cost controlled 2nd line C).

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

On the plus side the two players Kotka started with last nights game were able to cross back out of being a negative on the scoresheet once he was taken off their line

Lol did you even see the goal that was scored. Freddy got caught on a wraparound and he wasn’t set. Sure let’s blame Kotka for that one.

Canes are 5-0… I think the team is happy with what’s going on

 

[ijuka]

Trying hard to drag JK down. Really enjoying how much it bothers people.

This isn’t about this season. The system takes months to get used to so its pretty easy to imagine the newest top 9 forward is playing the least amount of minutes of top 9 players.

This is a long term play anyways. He’ll get his 30-35 points this season and have a full off-season to work on his skating. Year 2 in the system with smoother skating will start his climb.

Long term plan? He makes 6.1mil which is way more than he's worth. In order to make it long term they need to give him 6.1mil next year as well, which would be insane.

They:
1. Completely overpaid a player
2. Gave away tons of assets to do so

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Long term plan? He makes 6.1mil which is way more than he's worth. In order to make it long term they need to give him 6.1mil next year as well, which would be insane.

They:
1. Completely overpaid a player
2. Gave away tons of assets to do so

Sigh… either you can’t read or you choose to ignore the option where starting in January the Canes can sign KK to an extension of any value and the QO is completely irrelevant.

 

[ijuka]

Sigh… either you can’t read or you choose to ignore the option where starting in January the Canes can sign KK to an extension of any value and the QO is completely irrelevant.

You mean the option of Kotkaniemi leaving millions on the table? That'd be nice but I personally would prefer to get paid 3 to 4 million more rather than get paid 3 to 4 million less.

Of course, it's possible that he signs with Canes as a UFA anyway but it still would be a UFA signing separate from the trade(which then would only have given them 1 year of Kotkaniemi).

 

[Chrispy]

Long term plan? He makes 6.1mil which is way more than he's worth. In order to make it long term they need to give him 6.1mil next year as well, which would be insane.

They:
1. Completely overpaid a player
2. Gave away tons of assets to do so

They do not need to give Kotkaniemi $6.1M. They can negotiate a lower AAV on a longer term deal similar to what he could get on the open market, which you clearly agree will be below $6.1M. Or they can drop his salary by up to $900K (they can offer down to 85% of the player's previous contract) in team-elected arbitration. Or if neither of those appeal to Carolina, they can let him walk giving up similar assets to a deadline rental for a full season of a player.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

You mean the option of Kotkaniemi leaving millions on the table? That'd be nice but I personally would prefer to get paid 3 to 4 million more rather than get paid 3 to 4 million less.

How is he leaving millions on the table? If he plays well, he’ll get paid well by Carolina or at the very least the QO/arbitration for next year. If he doesn’t play well then why would another team give him a big contract?

 

[ijuka]

How is he leaving millions on the table? If he plays well, he’ll get paid well by Carolina or at the very least the QO for next year. If he doesn’t play well then why would another team give him a big contract?

"Why would another team give him a big contract?" Because he's free and wouldn't cost any assets. Of course he might not get a -big- contract but that should inflate it. UFAs routinely get overpaid since they cost no assets.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

"Why would another team give him a big contract?" Because he's free and wouldn't cost any assets. Of course he might not get a -big- contract but that should inflated it. UFAs routinely get overpaid since they cost no assets.

So what’s the contract then that someone else is giving him that Carolina won’t? Why don’t we just wait and see what happens in January to the rest of the season when an extension becomes possible and there’s more than 5 games to go off of.

 

[jfhabs]

Note that a QO after the season is only one of the options for Canes; they can extend him after Jan 1st, they can trade him at any time, they can let him walk. (And Kotkaniemi's agent is of course well aware of all this when considering his client's future.)

The trade prohibition only applies to the team that matches an OS; it's there simply to prevent the team punishing a player who signed an OS. So it would only have applied to Habs in this case; it doesn't apply to Canes.

I'm no expert on NHL rules but I hope this helped.

Yes I know all this. There are rumors the canes already have a cheapet extension in place. Bergevin already said publicly they would look into it if a cheaper long term deal is signed in early july

 

[ijuka]

Canes are 5-0… I think the team is happy with what’s going on

However, let's assume that they're a serious cup contender at the deadline. They would want to:

1. Have 6mil in salary cap available so that they can fit rentals for the playoffs
2. Have the 1st and 3rd picks available so that they can trade them for rentals.


Hence, this argument actually is weak.

So what’s the contract then that someone else is giving him that Carolina won’t? Why don’t we just wait and see what happens in January to the rest of the season when an extension becomes possible and there’s more than 5 games to go off of.

Who knows? It'd still be a UFA situation which makes this here deal for only 1 year, which makes it terrible value.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

However, let's assume that they're a serious cup contender at the deadline. They would want to:

1. Have 6mil in salary cap available so that they can fit rentals for the playoffs
2. Have the 1st and 3rd picks available so that they can trade them for rentals.


Hence, this argument actually is weak.Who knows? It'd still be a UFA situation which makes this here deal for only 1 year, which makes it terrible value.

At worst Kotka is the ‘rental’ with that use of assets and they got him for the whole year + training camp. There was a gamble element involved of course but no one over here is worried, so neither should you

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

However, let's assume that they're a serious cup contender at the deadline. They would want to:

1. Have 6mil in salary cap available so that they can fit rentals for the playoffs
2. Have the 1st and 3rd picks available so that they can trade them for rentals.


Hence, this argument actually is weak.

Except JK will more than likely have more of an impact on this team than any rental. This team isn’t a big proponent of expensive rentals either. They may trade for a guy with some team control first. A depth, cheap rental could happen if we have a slew of injuries.

pretty weak argument on your end.

 

[tarheelhockey]

The price the Canes paid for him meant they basically expect him to break out and become an impact player in the next 1-3 years.

The price was about what you’d expect to pay for a rental, or longer term acquisition on a middle-6 winger. Of course it’s possible a late 1st or 3rd becomes a better player than Kotkaniemi, but unlikely and very luck driven. Even if he stays a 3rd line winger, that’s a fair trade value which benefits a team in Carolina’s position (needing the player’s services now, not years down the road when their window is closing).

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

The price was about what you’d expect to pay for a rental, or longer term acquisition on a middle-6 winger. Of course it’s possible a late 1st or 3rd becomes a better player than Kotkaniemi, but unlikely and very luck driven. Even if he stays a 3rd line winger, that’s a fair trade value which benefits a team in Carolina’s position (needing the player’s services now, not years down the road when their window is closing).

Leafs paid a 1st + 4th for a handful of games of a broken Foligno. Canes are no doubt fine with paying a 1st + 3rd for a full year of KK with the ability to sign him for longer at a reasonable deal which will likely happen.

 

[didimentionlarseller]

Lol did you even see the goal that was scored. Freddy got caught on a wraparound and he wasn’t set. Sure let’s blame Kotka for that one.

Canes are 5-0… I think the team is happy with what’s going on

noticing Kotka had a bad night is apparently trolling so I’ll just leave it alone I thought this thread was to discuss his performance but the mods have corrected me

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

noticing Kotka had a bad night is apparently trolling so I’ll just leave it alone I thought this thread was to discuss his performance but the mods have corrected me

Making up stories that Kotka had a bad night isn’t trolling it’s just a sad attempt at fan fiction.

He had some good chances in the offensive zone and played a pretty solid game. You won’t find any complaints from anyone about him who actually watched the game.

 

[didimentionlarseller]

Making up stories that Kotka had a bad night isn’t trolling it’s just a sad attempt at fan fiction.

He had some good chances in the offensive zone and played a pretty solid game. You won’t find any complaints from anyone about him who actually watched the game.

I watched the game and posted about what I saw in here didn’t think that was trolling and didnt post any lie about his performance. Im glad the canes are happy with anything he does

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I watched the game and posted about what I saw in here didn’t think that was trolling and didnt post any lie about his performance. Im glad the canes are happy with anything he does

K well I guess we just differ on our valuations of what a good or bad night was. As explained I don’t think the -1 is indicative of KK’s play as that was really more on Bear and Andersen but fine it happened while he was on the ice. Other than that he seemed to play fine. Guess you saw something else, and that’s fine too.

 

[didimentionlarseller]

K well I guess we just differ on our valuations of what a good or bad night was. As explained I don’t think the -1 is indicative of KK’s play as that was really more on Bear and Andersen but fine it happened while he was on the ice. Other than that he seemed to play fine. Guess you saw something else, and that’s fine too.

I’m watching games with him because I like Kotka not hate him anyhow mods have spoken I won’t post in here just responded to your comment

 

[samsagat]

KK's always been a stretch player. He'll have 4-5 games streches where he looks like a star player and then 10-15 games streches where he looks like... well a ghost...

And by the kind of comments he made since last year post mortem press conference, it seems like according to him his lack of success is everybody/everything elses fault but his...

Good luck to eventually get better with this kind of attitude..

 

[JuJu Mobb]

He was a bum with us, he's still a bum now.

 

[japhi]

That’s ignoring the option of skipping the QO and signing him to a longer term contract.

The guy is not stupid, he knows he’s not getting $6M on the open market. If Carolina offers him something comparable to a market value contract he will likely sign it, knowing that the Canes won’t hesitate to walk away from him (and aren’t a team that needs to be tested when it comes to that stuff). For all intents and purposes, the QO option only exists on-paper. It won’t actually happen and he’d be a fool to act like it will.

But what is a market value contract for a 30 point bottom 6 winger with defensive issues? He doesn't even kill penalties.

People are talking like they will just knock out a deal.... will he really be interested in 2.5x4 - which is probably close to his market value today? Obviously things can change, but the biggest issue they are going to have is the same one Montreal was having. How do you commit long term to a player that is still such a project?

And if your KK, do you want to spend the next 4 years behind much better players? How does that affect long term earnings? He is likely best served playing top 6, 18 mins a night on a weaker team. Strangely he would have had that opportunity in MTL.

 

[japhi]

Im pretty sure you haven’t read any of my posts because your responses are missing the mark.

This is a long term play, his play this season isn’t as important. Keep passing that narrative in hopes that it sticks.

Actually it is you that is missing the mark. How is a one year term with a player friendly option a long term play? You are making a huge assumption here - that KK will sign a long term team friendly deal and then you are basing your argument around this assumption.