Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[Calicaps]

The other lovely thing about the Kuzy news is that the Caps now have all 3 of their retention slots available if needed.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I saw Laine trending on twitter and thought we could have made a move.

 

[Marshall]

I was just futzing through some stats because I have a hockey problem, and I came across the following which interested me.

Without looking (honor system people) which forward led the Caps in TOI in 23-24 (per NHL.com)?

39 year old Alex Ovechkin

Answer really surprised me. And I would imagine the coaching staff takes steps to normalize things next year.

 

[895]

I was just futzing through some stats because I have a hockey problem, and I came across the following which interested me.

Without looking (honor system people) which forward led the Caps in TOI in 23-24 (per NHL.com)?

39 year year old Alex Ovechkin

Answer really surprised me. And I would imagine the coaching staff takes steps to normalize things next year.

I don't think it's that surprising. ENG hunting + 2 min power plays + top line left wing.

What's going to change about that this year?

 

[twabby]

Whatever you do, DO NOT click on the following link:

NHL’s 10 worst contracts, 2024 edition: Jonathan Huberdeau, Darnell Nurse and more

According to each player’s projected value over the remainder of their deals, these are the league’s 10 worst contracts.

www.nytimes.com

And DO NOT click on this spoiler text:

Spoiler

3. Tom Wilson​

Contract: $6.5M x seven years
Model Value: $2.7M x seven years

Last summer, the Capitals wasted zero time extending Tom Wilson for his age 30-to-37 seasons at a top-line price point. Wilson was certainly that in his prime, a menacing power forward who brought fear to the majority of the league with his ability to score and bully simultaneously.

While Wilson can still bully, his ability to score seriously tanked last season making it difficult to have confidence in his ability to still be a top-six scorer, let alone top line. The model projects him to bounce back to just under 50 points and, to his credit, he was very unlucky last season. But if he’s already well below where he needs to be in Year 1, what does that say about his potential efficacy in Year 7?

It’s not a great sign and the current projection sees Wilson dropping to third-line caliber by Year 3 — with a whole lot of years to go after that. Given his imposing reputation, Wilson will still likely be a worthwhile everyday player for the majority of this deal. But that’ll be far off what he’s being paid to be.

And if the downfall of Milan Lucic is any indication, the whole bullying factor loses a lot of lustre once that player stops being able to hit a team where it actually hurts.

Lucic’s deal, which started when he was 28 not 30, should’ve been a cautionary tale for the Capitals. They did pay less for Wilson (7.4 percent of the cap compared to 8.2 percent), but that discount alone will likely be far from enough unless Wilson sees a serious return to form next season.

If Wilson can get back to being a 50-point player, do so consistently, and keep his intangible edge, he can be worth the money for the next little bit. That can at least make the back half of the deal palatable.

It’s not impossible, it’s just not the likeliest scenario.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ya lost me at NY Times.

 

[Silky mitts]

Whatever you do, DO NOT click on the following link:

NHL’s 10 worst contracts, 2024 edition: Jonathan Huberdeau, Darnell Nurse and more

According to each player’s projected value over the remainder of their deals, these are the league’s 10 worst contracts.

www.nytimes.com

And DO NOT click on this spoiler text:

Spoiler

3. Tom Wilson​

Contract: $6.5M x seven years
Model Value: $2.7M x seven years

Last summer, the Capitals wasted zero time extending Tom Wilson for his age 30-to-37 seasons at a top-line price point. Wilson was certainly that in his prime, a menacing power forward who brought fear to the majority of the league with his ability to score and bully simultaneously.

While Wilson can still bully, his ability to score seriously tanked last season making it difficult to have confidence in his ability to still be a top-six scorer, let alone top line. The model projects him to bounce back to just under 50 points and, to his credit, he was very unlucky last season. But if he’s already well below where he needs to be in Year 1, what does that say about his potential efficacy in Year 7?

It’s not a great sign and the current projection sees Wilson dropping to third-line caliber by Year 3 — with a whole lot of years to go after that. Given his imposing reputation, Wilson will still likely be a worthwhile everyday player for the majority of this deal. But that’ll be far off what he’s being paid to be.

And if the downfall of Milan Lucic is any indication, the whole bullying factor loses a lot of lustre once that player stops being able to hit a team where it actually hurts.

Lucic’s deal, which started when he was 28 not 30, should’ve been a cautionary tale for the Capitals. They did pay less for Wilson (7.4 percent of the cap compared to 8.2 percent), but that discount alone will likely be far from enough unless Wilson sees a serious return to form next season.

If Wilson can get back to being a 50-point player, do so consistently, and keep his intangible edge, he can be worth the money for the next little bit. That can at least make the back half of the deal palatable.

It’s not impossible, it’s just not the likeliest scenario.

1 and 2 are too on the nose to feel like 3 is wrong

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Ya lost me at NY Times.

It’s The Athletic. They were acquired by the NYT.

 

[Calicaps]

It’s The Athletic. They were acquired by the NYT.

athletic is about all I miss about my recently cancelled times subscription.

 

[43sfriends]

I at least like how you can hit stop before the page is done loading to read the whole article.

They aren't taking into account that Tom had top tier centers in Kuzy and Backstrom until last season, and this was also his first year back from acl surgery right? I expect a decent bounce back from him.

 

[Ridley Simon]

athletic is about all I miss about my recently cancelled times subscription.

Don’t miss it too much. They’ve gotten a lot worse while under the NYT.

The fired/laid off/pushed out a ton of talent, mostly local beat writers for various teams in the 4 Pro Leagues. It’s bad.

As an example — Yankees have a phalanx of local writers doing stories on them (good for them), while the Orioles have…..wait for it…..None!

This wouldn’t matter so much if it was the Orioles of the previous years (18-22), but NO! The shitty O’s actually had their own writer for those years.

Come 2023 and beyond, when they’ve been one of the best most exciting teams in MLB?

Nah— they don’t need a beat writer. Uh uh.

It’s all f***ed up now.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Meh, I wouldn't be surprised if Wilson had a bounce back season. It should be a bit of a better team around him.

 

[Roshi]

Better team makes better players. Wilson will rebound. I like our team. Well.. atleast more than last years.

With the free’d 3,9 millions im rooting for third line Oshie. Milano-Lapierre-Oshie sounds like a sneaky good line.

Also love the body work of Dowd-Duhaime in fourth line. Thats going to be very fun matchup line.

Top6 is still missing scoring power but the depth can keep us dry. The more time goes, the more i like what Caps did this summer.

Miro, Leonard, Cristall, Parascak, Hutson, Muggli, Iorio, Chesley on the pool, have a lot to look forward too. Its a fun team again, atleast for a while.

 

[g00n]

 

[Random schmoe]

Don’t miss it too much. They’ve gotten a lot worse while under the NYT.

The fired/laid off/pushed out a ton of talent, mostly local beat writers for various teams in the 4 Pro Leagues. It’s bad.

As an example — Yankees have a phalanx of local writers doing stories on them (good for them), while the Orioles have…..wait for it…..None!

This wouldn’t matter so much if it was the Orioles of the previous years (18-22), but NO! The shitty O’s actually had their own writer for those years.

Come 2023 and beyond, when they’ve been one of the best most exciting teams in MLB?

Nah— they don’t need a beat writer. Uh uh.

It’s all f***ed up now.

The loss of the local beat writers is why I cancelled my subscription.

They still send me daily emails and I've found that I can read the full stories linked in the email. Ssshhhh.

 

[VaCaps Fan]

If Wilson can control his temper, he will be fine.

 

[crazy8888]

If Wilson can control his temper, he will be fine.

Well, his career will be fine as in he wont be getting suspended every season. But a good mannered Wilson is not nearly as effective as the one that was putting fear into opponents just a few years ago.

Hopefully the league finds a new scapegoat and Willie can go back to knocking fools around and punching peoples faces in.

 

[hb13xchamps]

The loss of the local beat writers is why I cancelled my subscription.

They still send me daily emails and I've found that I can read the full stories linked in the email. Ssshhhh.

I was going to cancel mine until I was charged the same promo price I received the year prior. It was like $35ish for the entire year.

 

[um]

I do wonder if Wilson will take Oshies spot in PP1. Big opportunity for him.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I do wonder if Wilson will take Oshies spot in PP1. Big opportunity for him.

Wilson has shown good touch at times with deflections but I do wonder if one of the younger skilled players would be more effective in that role. Like Lapierre.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Hopefully — we can still see 77 in the actual “Oshie” spot.

But I know, I know. I’m not getting my hopes up.

He said it himself — he wants to be counted on, or he’s not going to do it. Playing half the games isn’t being counted on.

 

[um]

Wilson has shown good touch at times with deflections but I do wonder if one of the younger skilled players would be more effective in that role. Like Lapierre.

Lappy is more skilled for sure. It’s a good question and I wouldn’t mind different set ups on the PP.

Still not a lot of righties up front. Only Ovie, Wilson, Dowd and Raddysh.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I know they said they were done... but with the Kuzy Relief, and if both Oshie and Backstrom are full LTIR we should have about 4.48 M available if we spend it before the season. So maybe that puts 4M in play and leaves a 0.5M buffer.

If we wanted to explore a further D upgrade moving out any of TVR/AA/Fever/Sundin plus a pick (up to a 2026 1st) to someone who maybe can't afford their stud D now or wont be able to afford in the near future.

I suspect a big part of why we bought CapFriendly was so we could run predictive analysis on the data to determine a time based future "desperation" factor for each team and be able to work those teams harder in trade discussions (and identify who to approach before other teams realize there could be an opportunity). They may have even used this is the deft Beck, Thompson, and Chychrun trade negotiations.

A little Machine Learnin' goes a long way!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The 2026 1st (and beyond) could be lottery picks, in other words, they should be untouchable.

You know who thought he was smarter than the rest of the league and would be able to weaponize cap space and scoop up stars that others couldn’t resign. McPhee…..we saw how that unfolded….in futility.

Teams will find a way to resign their best.

 

[hockeykicker]

I know they said they were done... but with the Kuzy Relief, and if both Oshie and Backstrom are full LTIR we should have about 4.48 M available if we spend it before the season. So maybe that puts 4M in play and leaves a 0.5M buffer.

If we wanted to explore a further D upgrade moving out any of TVR/AA/Fever/Sundin plus a pick (up to a 2026 1st) to someone who maybe can't afford their stud D now or wont be able to afford in the near future.

I suspect a big part of why we bought CapFriendly was so we could run predictive analysis on the data to determine a time based future "desperation" factor for each team and be able to work those teams harder in trade discussions (and identify who to approach before other teams realize there could be an opportunity). They may have even used this is the deft Beck, Thompson, and Chychrun trade negotiations.

A little Machine Learnin' goes a long way!

Im pretty sure (and this is a total guess) that capitals knew the kuzy money was coming. its not like he woke up one morning and made a random decision. So imo gmbm is likely done