Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[ArmadilloThumb]

So imo gmbm is likely done

And I'm absolutely fine with that.

Just pointing out what I perceived part of the rationale on how they may want to use a further enhanced CapFriendly.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The 2026 1st (and beyond) could be lottery picks, in other words, they should be untouchable.

You know who thought he was smarter than the rest of the league and would be able to weaponize cap space and scoop up stars that others couldn’t resign. McPhee…..we saw how that unfolded….in futility.

Teams will find a way to resign their best.

It worked fine for McPhee. Just not in DC

 

[usiel]

Would love an upgrade at TVR's position... especially if the slow down last season was real and not being dinged up.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Im pretty sure (and this is a total guess) that capitals knew the kuzy money was coming. its not like he woke up one morning and made a random decision. So imo gmbm is likely done

Agreed on the Kuzy “knowledge”. I am sure it had all been discussed before Kuz came out of rehab (or wherever he was). Maybe not all of the specifics, but the general premise.

Which is why the Canes did it. Kuz w Orlov for once last hurrah, and then ditch the NHL.

Everyone won, in many ways. The Canes just couldn’t get it done.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Would love an upgrade at TVR's position... especially if the slow down last season was real and not being dinged up.

Yeah. That or more offense.

I DO like the top group on D w Carlson, Roy, Chychrun. They are betting on Sandin to make it 4. Hopefully have an even better regular partner will make that happen.

But more scoring/speed from the wing would’ve very helpful as well.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

The 2026 1st (and beyond) could be lottery picks, in other words, they should be untouchable.

I certainly would not move any 1st that wasn't protected.

Obviously we will have to disagree about expected team trajectory. To me, it's very clear we bottomed out last year and should be consistently in the playoffs going forward. I'll add that, depending on how many levels we see the youth rise (and how PLD responds) we can be poised to make deeper and deeper runs.

I don't care at all about oddsmakers or pundits that don't understand the legit potential we have. I'm very optimistic.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It worked fine for McPhee. Just not in DC

Thanks for confirming my point. DC also isn’t Vegas in terms of appeal IMO (for younger than us NHLers).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I certainly would not move any 1st that wasn't protected.

Obviously we will have to disagree about expected team trajectory. To me, it's very clear we bottomed out last year and should be consistently in the playoffs going forward. I'll add that, depending on how many levels we see the youth rise (and how PLD responds) we can be poised to make deeper and deeper runs.

I don't care at all about oddsmakers or pundits that don't understand the legit potential we have. I'm very optimistic.

I certainly appreciate the optimism, but we have quite a bit of unknowns that need to work out/reverse their own career trajectories and we need key guys to stay healthy for that to pan out. Fingers crossed.

If I were an opposing GM, I certainly wouldn’t deal with the Caps in a trade for a “stud D” with any draft pick protections in place.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

The lack of trade options and FA right now leads me to think Kuz cap money will go to Oshie and he’s not LTIR

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

If I were an opposing GM, I certainly wouldn’t deal with the Caps in a trade for a “stud D” with any draft pick protections in place.

That automatically makes you better than the Ottawa GM!! Chychrun may elevate himself to stud status and there is no "protection" on the 3rd we sent.

It strikes me that with the CapFriendly purchase they are trying to take team building to a higher level. So yeah, figure out who to target as potential additions, assess how strong the other team's negotiating position is, and then maximize value. They didn't buy CF to simply "piss people off".

If they move before the season starts they can maximize the potential LTIR Relief and as I see it that looks to the TVR spot. And they may feel as I do that they are on the way up and not heading to become the next San Jose. If that's the case, and if they feel they are now well stocked with F prospects the 2026 or 2027 1st may be seen as better used now as Trade Capital.

All just speculation, but to me the past draft and UFA season hints they are trying to get much more sophisticated with making deals and long term vision.

The lack of trade options and FA right now leads me to think Kuz cap money will go to Oshie and he’s not LTIR

And that is possible too. I'm just speculating they may also be exploring the scenario I've suggested.

 

[hockeykicker]

The lack of trade options and FA right now leads me to think Kuz cap money will go to Oshie and he’s not LTIR

I dont think that works salary cap wise because right now they are 10 million over the cap which would have to have oshie and backstrom on ltir to work. otherwise someone big would have to be traded

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[g00n]

Feels like a lifetime since Ovie's had the puck in that spot with that much time ES

 

[MrGone]

Whatever you do, DO NOT click on the following link:

NHL’s 10 worst contracts, 2024 edition: Jonathan Huberdeau, Darnell Nurse and more

According to each player’s projected value over the remainder of their deals, these are the league’s 10 worst contracts.

www.nytimes.com

And DO NOT click on this spoiler text:

Spoiler

3. Tom Wilson​

Contract: $6.5M x seven years
Model Value: $2.7M x seven years

Last summer, the Capitals wasted zero time extending Tom Wilson for his age 30-to-37 seasons at a top-line price point. Wilson was certainly that in his prime, a menacing power forward who brought fear to the majority of the league with his ability to score and bully simultaneously.

While Wilson can still bully, his ability to score seriously tanked last season making it difficult to have confidence in his ability to still be a top-six scorer, let alone top line. The model projects him to bounce back to just under 50 points and, to his credit, he was very unlucky last season. But if he’s already well below where he needs to be in Year 1, what does that say about his potential efficacy in Year 7?

It’s not a great sign and the current projection sees Wilson dropping to third-line caliber by Year 3 — with a whole lot of years to go after that. Given his imposing reputation, Wilson will still likely be a worthwhile everyday player for the majority of this deal. But that’ll be far off what he’s being paid to be.

And if the downfall of Milan Lucic is any indication, the whole bullying factor loses a lot of lustre once that player stops being able to hit a team where it actually hurts.

Lucic’s deal, which started when he was 28 not 30, should’ve been a cautionary tale for the Capitals. They did pay less for Wilson (7.4 percent of the cap compared to 8.2 percent), but that discount alone will likely be far from enough unless Wilson sees a serious return to form next season.

If Wilson can get back to being a 50-point player, do so consistently, and keep his intangible edge, he can be worth the money for the next little bit. That can at least make the back half of the deal palatable.

It’s not impossible, it’s just not the likeliest scenario.

I did not need an article to know this.

 

[BondraEra]

The Athletic article isn’t saying anything people on this board haven’t said or thought about Wilson recently. They just happened to use charts to say it.

 

[Kalopsia]

Im pretty sure (and this is a total guess) that capitals knew the kuzy money was coming. its not like he woke up one morning and made a random decision. So imo gmbm is likely done

I'm sure they expected it, but in order for them to factor that cap space into their plans at the start of this offseason they would've needed to know for absolute 100% sure it was happening. If they spent that money and then at the last second some NHL team reached out to Kuzy and offered him a role in a system that he was excited about and the Canes traded him instead of terminating the contract the Caps would've been absolutely screwed. Being in a position where you have to shed up to 3.9M in cap hits just to be compliant and every other team knew it would get them raked over the coals.

So I think it's possible the Caps planned conservatively based on assuming the Kuzy money wouldn't be there, and that they could make another addition later on if the contract termination came through. Could also mean they think Oshie's gonna play, but I take the moves they made thus far and Oshie's interviews and the fact that he's back to playing golf when he said before that he had to give it up for hockey as pretty strong indicators that he's done.

Mostly I'm just trying to stay optimistic that there might be one more fun move to spice up the summer doldrums.

Yeah. That or more offense.

I DO like the top group on D w Carlson, Roy, Chychrun. They are betting on Sandin to make it 4. Hopefully have an even better regular partner will make that happen.

But more scoring/speed from the wing would’ve very helpful as well.

Don't you mean Fehervary? And I don't think they're really betting at this point, I'd say he's pretty solidly a top 4 defenseman right now. Sandin really looks like the odd man out to me on D right now. The Chychrun move was a vote of no confidence in him as a top 4 D. If Chychrun pans out and his contract demands aren't unreasonable I'd bet on Sandin being dealt next summer.

 

[Holtbyisms]

I'm sure they expected it, but in order for them to factor that cap space into their plans at the start of this offseason they would've needed to know for absolute 100% sure it was happening. If they spent that money and then at the last second some NHL team reached out to Kuzy and offered him a role in a system that he was excited about and the Canes traded him instead of terminating the contract the Caps would've been absolutely screwed. Being in a position where you have to shed up to 3.9M in cap hits just to be compliant and every other team knew it would get them raked over the coals.

So I think it's possible the Caps planned conservatively based on assuming the Kuzy money wouldn't be there, and that they could make another addition later on if the contract termination came through. Could also mean they think Oshie's gonna play, but I take the moves they made thus far and Oshie's interviews and the fact that he's back to playing golf when he said before that he had to give it up for hockey as pretty strong indicators that he's done.

Mostly I'm just trying to stay optimistic that there might be one more fun move to spice up the summer doldrums.


Don't you mean Fehervary? And I don't think they're really betting at this point, I'd say he's pretty solidly a top 4 defenseman right now. Sandin really looks like the odd man out to me on D right now. The Chychrun move was a vote of no confidence in him as a top 4 D. If Chychrun pans out and his contract demands aren't unreasonable I'd bet on Sandin being dealt next summer.

Agree on the Sandin front. The deal felt really good initially but he's not progressed here with a bigger role and in fact I'd venture to say he's taken a step back. In comparison to what the first rounder we traded for him has turned into we unfortunately got fleeced on that deal. He's a big L for GMBM no matter how anyone tries to spin it, the contract was just icing on the L. He tops out as a third pairing puck mover. He's no better than a handful of guys we could have had for a quarter of the price as UFAs this offseason. Adam Boqvist for example is a pretty good comp, from the same draft, scores at a better rate and plays a similar risky game. Even has the same injury bug like Sandin. He just got 775k for one year while Sandin is making 4.6 for five years. Ouch.

 

[The Instigator]

I miss the jersey tuck.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Agree on the Sandin front. The deal felt really good initially but he's not progressed here with a bigger role and in fact I'd venture to say he's taken a step back. In comparison to what the first rounder we traded for him has turned into we unfortunately got fleeced on that deal. He's a big L for GMBM no matter how anyone tries to spin it, the contract was just icing on the L. He tops out as a third pairing puck mover. He's no better than a handful of guys we could have had for a quarter of the price as UFAs this offseason. Adam Boqvist for example is a pretty good comp, from the same draft, scores at a better rate and plays a similar risky game. Even has the same injury bug like Sandin. He just got 775k for one year while Sandin is making 4.6 for five years. Ouch.

I'd much rather we had Cowan who the Leafs took with the pick we gave.

 

[Brian23]

I dont think that works salary cap wise because right now they are 10 million over the cap which would have to have oshie and backstrom on ltir to work. otherwise someone big would have to be traded

I think the assumption is they send Bear down, which nets them around a million back, so that Backstrom on LTIR is the only thing they need to worry about. At this point I think they knew about Kuzya, but truly don't know what's up with Oshie. I think he and the team expect him to give it a go, which is probably going to end up with them having the same situation as Backstrom had. Probably play 10 or 15 games before he goes to LTIR to figure things out.

EDIT: Yeah, with Bear sent down and Oshie playing they have 79k in cap space. This apparently doesn't take into account the Kuzya cap coming back.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I miss the jersey tuck.

Have no idea why they got rid of it. 99, 8, 68 all tuckers.
I also tuck when allowed.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I dont think that works salary cap wise because right now they are 10 million over the cap which would have to have oshie and backstrom on ltir to work. otherwise someone big would have to be traded

Nah. They are basically 1m over the cap when Backstrom is LTIR’d.

It’s Bear getting sent down.

That’s it.

 

[ovikovy817]

Game finished 8:8
Ovi scored the first one.
Played on a line with Malkin and Panarin.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I'm sure they expected it, but in order for them to factor that cap space into their plans at the start of this offseason they would've needed to know for absolute 100% sure it was happening. If they spent that money and then at the last second some NHL team reached out to Kuzy and offered him a role in a system that he was excited about and the Canes traded him instead of terminating the contract the Caps would've been absolutely screwed. Being in a position where you have to shed up to 3.9M in cap hits just to be compliant and every other team knew it would get them raked over the coals.

So I think it's possible the Caps planned conservatively based on assuming the Kuzy money wouldn't be there, and that they could make another addition later on if the contract termination came through. Could also mean they think Oshie's gonna play, but I take the moves they made thus far and Oshie's interviews and the fact that he's back to playing golf when he said before that he had to give it up for hockey as pretty strong indicators that he's done.

Mostly I'm just trying to stay optimistic that there might be one more fun move to spice up the summer doldrums.


Don't you mean Fehervary? And I don't think they're really betting at this point, I'd say he's pretty solidly a top 4 defenseman right now. Sandin really looks like the odd man out to me on D right now. The Chychrun move was a vote of no confidence in him as a top 4 D. If Chychrun pans out and his contract demands aren't unreasonable I'd bet on Sandin being dealt next summer.

No, I meant Sandin. They paid him like a top 4D (middle pair, IMO), and I think they still expect him to take that step and solidify that. Dude is still 9mo or so away from even being 25. He hasn’t entered his prime yet, and candidly is 2yrs or so away from that (26-27 for D-men).

Fever is more of a wildcard. Heck, he’s older than Sandin (which surprised me). He can play top 4 now — as can Sandin — and depending on how the chips fall THIS year, it *could* be one of those 2 dealt away next summer.

But I’d wager neither gets dealt. Carlson WILL suffer from Father Time, sooner than later, and I see Chuchrun as the JC replacement. Not the Sandin replacement.

I fully believe the Caps also fully believe that Sandin is part of their core D now. Chychrun’s (and Roy’s) acquisition doesn’t change anything about Sandin, IMO. Roy = Orpik/Niskanen, Chychrun = Carlson. They had hoped Sandin = Orlov…..which both hasn’t happened, nor was it fair (yet). In the end, Sandin = Jensen, which isn’t horrible either.

But I could be completely off base. Wouldn’t be the first time!!

 

[Langway]

I think the issue with Sandin is: what's the value in essentially a 5v5 only player? Does he tilt the ice enough 5v5, and is he dynamic enough, for that not to quickly become a luxury item if he can't further diversify his skill set? If Chychrun can bounce back into being more of an impact offensive defenseman without sacrificing much in his own end they should quickly prefer him between the keep him instead. Bigger, more dynamic generally and a better shot. He's a couple years older and will cost quite a bit more to lock up but I'm not sure there's a better top pair play to make than someone with his resume. If his game is fine-tuned then he's a far easier projection to replace Carlson, not just 5v5 but on the PP.

That said, I'm not sold on them ushering out both Carlson and Ovechkin in two years either. We'll see what happens in the meantime but they're so key that I wouldn't rule out some sort of one-year extension if they're up for it.