@twabby for need to see 23-24 fancy stats re: Jensen vs Sandin.
I think they were equally ……. Not good. But I’d wager Sandin was slightly less not good.
And one is a lot older than the other.
IMO Sandin will be good this year. He will solidify the top 4, and Fever May end up playing w TVR…..not Sandin w TVR.
Either way though? I MUCH better problem to be debating, rather than which could possibly play top pair w Carlson.
Sandin: 2.40 xGF/60, 2.81 xGA/60, 46.06 xGF%, 46.53% OZ Starts
Jensen: 2.17 xGF/60, 2.71 xGA/60, 44.49 xGF%, 31.05% OZ Starts
Sandin was less bad offensively by a bigger margin than Jensen was less bad defensively, but Jensen had the lowest OZ Start% on the blueline while Sandin had the highest. I'd say in the context of their usage Jensen was better, but it's subjective.
In a league-wide context, amongst defensemen with at least 500 minutes at 5 on 5, Sandin's numbers put him in the 34th percentile for xGF/60 and the 20th percentile for xGA/60. The best comps I could find for him (+/- 10 percentiles for each stat, +/- 10 percentage points for OZ starts) are Ilya Lyubushkin, Jake Bean, Pavel Mintyukov, Alec Martinez, Torey Krug, and Bowen Byram. Lyubushkin, Bean, and Martinez are third pairing D who play on the PK. Mintyukov is a 20 year old elite prospect just breaking into the league getting PP and PK time. Byram is a 23 year old elite prospect whose development has been slower than expected but who gets PP and PK time. Torey Krug runs the Blues PP and also PKs. Every guy in this range besides Sandin gets at least a minute a night on the PK. The ones who aren't 3rd pairing types all get 2-3 minutes a night on the PP as well (Byram was only getting 1 minute in Colorado but 2 in Buffalo).
Sandin's status as a defenseman who's bad defensively, pretty bad offensively, doesn't play tough minutes, and doesn't PK is an anomaly. When he loses his PP time with Chychrun here it'll be even more of an anomaly. He doesn't have the size to be physical, and he's not a good skater. He's basically the hockey equivalent of those "inning eater" pitchers in baseball whose only redeeming qualities are the ability to play a lot without getting injured. It's the classic example of a guy who's got just enough skill to look good in a sheltered 3rd pairing role on a good team and dazzles the models but gets exposed when he's asked to play higher in the lineup. Hence bringing in Chychrun to bump him back down to a role he can handle. Give him a year of playing well in easy minutes and it'll be easier to move him to make room for the Chychrun extension.
