Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

Kazer

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I wasn't faulting Carbs at all (see my parenthetical about design by necessity)
just hope he has the flexibility to pivot in his 2nd season as an NHL HC to a more balanced team offense now that we're a more well-rounded lineup (which I think he understands well)
Finding more offense is the key to the 24-25 season. The team doesn't have the high-end talent to be top 10, but they've added three top six forwards (Lapierre full-time, Mango, PLD) to a solid group and added two guys who can chip in offense from the back in (Chychrun especially but Roy scored more points in 23-24 than anyone on the Caps D not named Carlson).

Going from 28th (216 scored) to 16th (254 scored) would be a massive improvement of +38. That's not an unrealistic goal.
 
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Kalopsia

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I don't think it was Carberry's fault at all. It was a perfect storm for a brutally bad offence.

- Ovechkin, Carlson and Oshie declined a lot
- Kuznetsov and Backstrom are not NHL players anymore
- Young guys were not ready for big roles yet. All of Protas, McMichael, Lapierre, Miro had stretches of great hockey, but none of it lasted.
- Wilson developing like most power forwards. His peak has passed.
- Little offence from the blue line, losing Orlov hurt here

It should be better this year, but I'd say we still are missing top line/high skill players.
The biggest thing for me is that the Caps last year had 22.75M (27.2% of the salary cap) going to three forwards who combined for 43 points, the equivalent production of Daniel Sprong (and in more games played!). They were the functional equivalent of a cap floor team + Daniel Sprong with a 22.75M cap hit, no coach could've gotten even league-average offense from that roster. Now those three players have essentially disappeared from the balance sheet for no cost and been replaced with a bunch of skilled players in their primes. It's gonna get better. Even if these guys all repeat their down years, the offense will get better.

Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Oshie in 23-24: 22.75M cap hit, 43 points
Dubois, Mangiapane, Roy, and Chychrun in 23-24: 24.65M cap hit, 146 points

Actually, let's look at the entire picture here.

Out: Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Oshie, Paccioretty, NAK, Malenstyn, Jensen, Edmundson
Combined production: 24-74-98

In: PLD, Mangiapane, Duhaime, Raddysh, Chychrun, Roy
Combined production: 59-114-173

So the absolute baseline expectation here, assuming PLD and Mangiapane don't have bounce back seasons, the increased skill doesn't cause any returning players to produce more, and all the young guys plateau, is an increase of 35 goals. That by itself would take the Caps from 28th in GF to 20th and almost erase the negative goal differential.
 
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Calicaps

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I wasn't faulting Carbs at all (see my parenthetical about design by necessity)
just hope he has the flexibility to pivot in his 2nd season as an NHL HC to a more balanced team offense now that we're a more well-rounded lineup (which I think he understands well)
Not at all worried about that. He has said that started last year trying to play a more offense-first style but the roster couldn't pull it off, so he switched to the defensive style we saw for the second half of the season. You have to think that the moves Mac made this summer are all about having guys that can play that type of game. In other words, Carbs already did the pivot. Going back to what he prefers is the easy part, so long as the new lineup is what we hope they are (or better!).
 
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Kalopsia

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So, Konecny's one year older than PLD. Prior to last year he was a career 0.68 ppg player with two 60 point seasons under his belt (both 61 points). PLD right now is a career 0.65 ppg player with three 60 point seasons under his belt (60, 61, and 63). We can quibble over details - Konecny's the better goal scorer and recently added PKing to his duties, PLD's bigger, hits and blocks a little more, and plays the more valuable position - but in terms of raw production they're pretty close.

I guess my takeaway here is that if PLD can reach the mid to upper 60s in points this season like Konecny did this past year, then he immediately goes from worst contract in the NHL to fair market value, right?
 

CapitalsCupReality

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So, Konecny's one year older than PLD. Prior to last year he was a career 0.68 ppg player with two 60 point seasons under his belt (both 61 points). PLD right now is a career 0.65 ppg player with three 60 point seasons under his belt (60, 61, and 63). We can quibble over details - Konecny's the better goal scorer and recently added PKing to his duties, PLD's bigger, hits and blocks a little more, and plays the more valuable position - but in terms of raw production they're pretty close.

I guess my takeaway here is that if PLD can reach the mid to upper 60s in points this season like Konecny did this past year, then he immediately goes from worst contract in the NHL to fair market value, right?

Yep, he cracks 20g 60 pts, it’s a success IMO…
 

Ovechkins Wodka

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Im projecting Chychrun to be a pretty expensive extension. I dont think he takes less then Carlsons current deal. Part of the reason I want to sell Sandin now is knowing Chychrun going to be that guy with a 8+ mill avg.
 

Silky mitts

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I guess my takeaway here is that if PLD can reach the mid to upper 60s in points this season like Konecny did this past year, then he immediately goes from worst contract in the NHL to fair market value, right?
on the worst contract countdown Stephenson was #2 and he signed this month (PLD was HM) so it's possible anyone but Huberdeau could match their deal in this market. Good thing Toronto rushed to replace Dubas with Treliving.
 

43sfriends

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Im projecting Chychrun to be a pretty expensive extension. I dont think he takes less then Carlsons current deal. Part of the reason I want to sell Sandin now is knowing Chychrun going to be that guy with a 8+ mill avg.

I would love for him to earn that next season.

We just need to find a way to pick up Laine or McGroarty with that 3.9m & a bag of pucks and this epic offseason will be complete :thumbu:
 

CapitalsCupReality

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Im projecting Chychrun to be a pretty expensive extension. I dont think he takes less then Carlsons current deal. Part of the reason I want to sell Sandin now is knowing Chychrun going to be that guy with a 8+ mill avg.
How many point are you projecting for him to score to make his # more than Carlson?
 

CapitalsCupReality

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It’s more of the cap going up and the inflation on all these contracts. Carlson is quite value at this point.
I mean last year he tied his career high from 3 seasons ago with 41 pts. With our offense, not sure it’s a lock he produces more, but to get 8+ mil I gotta think he needs to play like an all star….and produce like it.
 

qc14

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Im projecting Chychrun to be a pretty expensive extension. I dont think he takes less then Carlsons current deal. Part of the reason I want to sell Sandin now is knowing Chychrun going to be that guy with a 8+ mill avg.
I think that despite the point totals Chychrun's time in OTT has left the league in general (and myself) wanting a bit to be making 1D $8M+ money -- that's part of the reason they were able to get him so cheap. I would say that Hanifin, Rielly, Sanheim, and Forsling are the most in-the-ballpark recent comps as strong 2D/lower end 1D (at least in league-wide perception, maybe not actual talent) signing long-term extensions around their 26/27/28yo seasons. Even with the cap inflation, I doubt that if Chychrun signed an extension right now he could beat Hanifin's 7.35Mx8. The only players IMO in that tier to break 8M are Trouba, Sergachev, and Nurse and I'd think that NHL GMs would learn a bit from those cases.

He'd have to have a pretty insane season (55+ points, TOI leader, etc.) for me to start worrying about a number that high and I think as of right now there's a better chance his next deal starts with a 6 than an 8
 

DWGie26

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Im projecting Chychrun to be a pretty expensive extension. I dont think he takes less then Carlsons current deal. Part of the reason I want to sell Sandin now is knowing Chychrun going to be that guy with a 8+ mill avg.
As of now, I don’t think so. He hasn’t had a good trend. Maybe he does this year. I think he can get his value up to 6M but higher might be a stretch. That is fine for top 4 (if he proves to be that for us).
 

DWGie26

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As for Dee, I think the change here is chemistry because it wasn’t working last year and we had no offense from blue line. Third worst in the NHL IIRC.

I think you have to pair Chychrun with JC74. See if that works. Second pair of Sandin and Roy. Roy more of a defensive defenseman but he can move the puck. Now you see what Sandin has in a more offensive role. That gives you a good defensive third pair of Fever-TVR.

That should produce a lot more offense from blue line and play more into Carbery’s desired system.

Last point… while Mangiapani and PLD add two top six forwards, the scoring increase should be much more influenced from blue line this year. Good for all!
 

Ovechkins Wodka

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As of now, I don’t think so. He hasn’t had a good trend. Maybe he does this year. I think he can get his value up to 6M but higher might be a stretch. That is fine for top 4 (if he proves to be that for us).
Chychrun is going to be a UFA. I didn’t set the market and it’s only going up.
What would he get on the open market? Thats what we might need to pay.

I hope we sign him for 6.5 and it works out
 

CapitalsCupReality

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Dima got 7.75 on the open market and he never surprised 36 points in his career and was older than Chychrun when he signed that deal. Chychrun easily gets 8+ as a UFA.
For 2 years and Carolina arguably regretting that cap number today lol….they thought he was a finishing move to win a Cup or 2…..X X X

We’ll see oh Chyc. He’s not getting more than Carlson at his current output IMO. If he plays great, I doubt he makes it to market anyway…
 
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