I don't think it was Carberry's fault at all. It was a perfect storm for a brutally bad offence.
- Ovechkin, Carlson and Oshie declined a lot
- Kuznetsov and Backstrom are not NHL players anymore
- Young guys were not ready for big roles yet. All of Protas, McMichael, Lapierre, Miro had stretches of great hockey, but none of it lasted.
- Wilson developing like most power forwards. His peak has passed.
- Little offence from the blue line, losing Orlov hurt here
It should be better this year, but I'd say we still are missing top line/high skill players.
The biggest thing for me is that the Caps last year had 22.75M (27.2% of the salary cap) going to three forwards who combined for 43 points, the equivalent production of Daniel Sprong (and in more games played!). They were the functional equivalent of a cap floor team + Daniel Sprong with a 22.75M cap hit, no coach could've gotten even league-average offense from that roster. Now those three players have essentially disappeared from the balance sheet for no cost and been replaced with a bunch of skilled players in their primes. It's gonna get better. Even if these guys all repeat their down years, the offense will get better.
Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Oshie in 23-24: 22.75M cap hit, 43 points
Dubois, Mangiapane, Roy, and Chychrun in 23-24: 24.65M cap hit, 146 points
Actually, let's look at the entire picture here.
Out: Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Oshie, Paccioretty, NAK, Malenstyn, Jensen, Edmundson
Combined production: 24-74-98
In: PLD, Mangiapane, Duhaime, Raddysh, Chychrun, Roy
Combined production: 59-114-173
So the absolute baseline expectation here, assuming PLD and Mangiapane don't have bounce back seasons, the increased skill doesn't cause any returning players to produce more, and all the young guys plateau, is an increase of 35 goals. That by itself would take the Caps from 28th in GF to 20th and almost erase the negative goal differential.