Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[Ridley Simon]

Agreed. It’s a big year for him.

What does Carlson make again? 7.8m or 8.3m, season? Damn Cap Friendly!

Edit — ahhh. It’s straight 8m for JC74.

I could easily see a 7.75-7.95m per year for JC6, IF he has a good first 50 games or so in DC.

That said, IF we don’t sign him, and he has the same “good season” (so say 45-55pts without *glaring* defensive deficiencies), then he will get more than 8m on the open market.

IMO, OFC

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I said it earlier as did another person, if he hits ~55 pts, and establishes himself he’ll get his $8 mil+, (I suspect from us but we’ll see), but IF he’s just what he has been so far, a ~40 pt guy…..he’s not getting more than $8 IMO.

 

[trick9]

If he wants to start earning #1D money, he's going to need to start playing like one. He didn't in Ottawa, but this is a fresh start. If he starts playing like one, then 8m isn't really all that much for a prime-aged UFA #1D. Carlson contract was over 10% of the cap when signed so with Chychrun assuming the cap the year after this is close to 90m it would mean 9m+ would be the equal number, and i don't think he gets there even with a good year.

I feel like as is, many here are over-valuing him quite a bit. If there were teams lining up to give him AAV of even close to 8 why wouldn’t they outbid the Caps to acquire him? The price to get him was ridiculously low. Chychrun's number right now on the market would propably start with a 6 and might climb above 7 if he was willing to sacrifice term to get there. I doubt he has any interest in signing right now.

He should be very motivated next season.

 

[twabby]

I don't know what's going on in Chychrun's mind but given that he's been underpaid for several years it seems likely he might demand full market value on his next contract.

We'll see how he fits this year but my first thought is that it may not be a price Washington likes and it might be more prudent to flip him for a nice haul at the deadline rather than overpay him.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don't know what's going on in Chychrun's mind but given that he's been underpaid for several years it seems likely he might demand full market value on his next contract.

We'll see how he fits this year but my first thought is that it may not be a price Washington likes and it might be more prudent to flip him for a nice haul at the deadline rather than overpay him.

This is the Caps we are talking about.

IF JC6 has a good year, they will reward him with a good contract, just as they did your boys Sandin & Jensen.

I see zero chance they trade him IF he’s having a good year.

IF he’s having a hard time “acclimating” to the Caps, then they could def flip him at the TDL. BUT, that would be 3rd trade in less than 2 years (or whatever), and they won’t get all that much, IMO. To your point about acquisition cost etc etc.

 

[twabby]

This is the Caps we are talking about.

IF JC6 has a good year, they will reward him with a good contract, just as they did your boys Sandin & Jensen.

I see zero chance they trade him IF he’s having a good year.

IF he’s having a hard time “acclimating” to the Caps, then they could def flip him at the TDL. BUT, that would be 3rd trade in less than 2 years (or whatever), and they won’t get all that much, IMO. To your point about acquisition cost etc etc.

Don't really agree that he wouldn't get much in a trade. With retention I see no reason why he wouldn't get similar to what Orlov got (late first rounder). IIRC Ottawa demanded a RHD in return for Chychrun which lowered their ask in terms of draft capital.

Also Ottawa is a terrible organization and minimizes value at every opportunity.

I'm on record being lower on Chychrun than most. He's a good #3. But I don't see him as a top pairing dude.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Don't really agree that he wouldn't get much in a trade. With retention I see no reason why he wouldn't get similar to what Orlov got (late first rounder). IIRC Ottawa demanded a RHD in return for Chychrun which lowered their ask in terms of draft capital.

Also Ottawa is a terrible organization and minimizes value at every opportunity.

I'm on record being lower on Chychrun than most. He's a good #3. But I don't see him as a top pairing dude.

Right!

But if we trade him, it’s bc he doesn’t fit with us either. And……we aren’t a terrible Org, and we don’t minimize value.

It won’t go the way you want, or as you are describing, is really my point.

I don’t see I’m what world that JC6 has a good season — where he does well to keep his trade value GOOD — and that we end up trading him.

Percentages of that are like…maybe 5 or 10%? Tops?

It’s a lot of conjecture on your part, IMO.

 

[Maruk moustache]

The biggest thing for me is that the Caps last year had 22.75M (27.2% of the salary cap) going to three forwards who combined for 43 points, the equivalent production of Daniel Sprong (and in more games played!). They were the functional equivalent of a cap floor team + Daniel Sprong with a 22.75M cap hit, no coach could've gotten even league-average offense from that roster. Now those three players have essentially disappeared from the balance sheet for no cost and been replaced with a bunch of skilled players in their primes. It's gonna get better. Even if these guys all repeat their down years, the offense will get better.

Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Oshie in 23-24: 22.75M cap hit, 43 points
Dubois, Mangiapane, Roy, and Chychrun in 23-24: 24.65M cap hit, 146 points

Actually, let's look at the entire picture here.

Out: Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Oshie, Paccioretty, NAK, Malenstyn, Jensen, Edmundson
Combined production: 24-74-98

In: PLD, Mangiapane, Duhaime, Raddysh, Chychrun, Roy
Combined production: 59-114-173

So the absolute baseline expectation here, assuming PLD and Mangiapane don't have bounce back seasons, the increased skill doesn't cause any returning players to produce more, and all the young guys plateau, is an increase of 35 goals. That by itself would take the Caps from 28th in GF to 20th and almost erase the negative goal differential.

This makes me feel better than does looking up the various sportsbooks' odds of the Capitals winning the Cup.

I've been watching hockey for a long time, but I still don't really know how to even attempt to evaluate the effect a good coach has. I usually just kinda think to myself, whenever someone claims that so and so is a "good coach," y'know, "how in the hell do you know that?"

I feel like it would be wrong to think that the coach isn't potentially important though. If our new coach is as good at squeezing results out of the hand he is dealt as this last season made him look, I would expect playoffs again. But probably just barely, again. I am feeling OK about it all.

I think we turned out to have had one of the weakest schedules last year. So, maybe it was all really about that, and some luck. Hopefully not.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I'm excited by both Chychrun and the new mix of players. I'm sure this was well discussed by GMBM et al, and well thought out. I suspect they hope/expect J6 will reach a higher level. If so, they will probably look to lock him up sooner rather than later. If he has a long-term deal in the 8M range the 8M hit in the 6th year won't be what an 8M hit is now.

Caps will have 25M in space next summer (with only Lappy and AA as RFAs) and 54M the summer after. I expect Mango is a one year placeholder if Leonard and Miroshnichenko are full time starting a year from September. So adding 8M will be easy if THEY think he's the guy...

 

[Maruk moustache]

This makes me feel better than does looking up the various sportsbooks' odds of the Capitals winning the Cup.

I've been watching hockey for a long time, but I still don't really know how to even attempt to evaluate the effect a good coach has. I usually just kinda think to myself, whenever someone claims that so and so is a "good coach," y'know, "how in the hell do you know that?"

I feel like it would be wrong to think that the coach isn't potentially important though. If our new coach is as good at squeezing results out of the hand he is dealt as this last season made him look, I would expect playoffs again. But probably just barely, again. I am feeling OK about it all.

I think we turned out to have had one of the weakest schedules last year. So, maybe it was all really about that, and some luck. Hopefully not.

Actually I just looked up this website's rating of our strength of schedule last year, and it says ours was the tenth hardest. So, I guess I am wrong. I swear I was checking this website like once a month last season and every time I looked before now our strength of schedule was like amongst the very lowest. I dunno, but this makes me feel even better about it all: Massey Ratings - National Hockey League Ratings

 

[Maruk moustache]

Oh, you know what? I just realized that final overall ratings thing includes the playoffs. So, the four games against the Rangers at the end probably had a large effect vs what it was before the playoffs started. Yeah, as I recall, our strength of schedule as of the end of the regular season was pretty low.

 

[twabby]

Right!

But if we trade him, it’s bc he doesn’t fit with us either. And……we aren’t a terrible Org, and we don’t minimize value.

It won’t go the way you want, or as you are describing, is really my point.

I don’t see I’m what world that JC6 has a good season — where he does well to keep his trade value GOOD — and that we end up trading him.

Percentages of that are like…maybe 5 or 10%? Tops?

It’s a lot of conjecture on your part, IMO.

Well I'm saying you have to project what he's going to be going forward and if it's worth it for a retooling team. He could very well have a good season and not be worth it for Washington going forward given contract demands and potential trade value.

Evolving Hockey has his most likely extension at 8 x $8 million as of now. They're not perfect but they have a good track record for contract projections.

I'm not at all comfortable giving a good but not great player that type of coin, especially given a likely decline due to age, and especially to a player with his type of injury history, and ESPECIALLY to a player that gets most of his protein from raw gibbon meat.

They made a great trade to get him, no doubt. But they need to be very calculating when it comes to his future in DC.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I still like the $6.5 per prediction someone made earlier lol….

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

We would all like 6.5 but that would be a home team discount and I highly doubt a UFA on a new team takes less then the highest bidder.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Guys signing 1D contracts right now are getting 10ish, not 8. Carlson signed 6-7 years ago.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

All he has to do is prove he’s a 1D…..hardly the cake walk people are acting like here…..I’m gonna agree with the poster who said we’re overrating/overvaluing him as of now….

I feel like we’ll be lucky if he proves this year he’s a legit 1b/2a like Orlov….

 

[Holtbyisms]

I don't think he's a bonafide 1D but he's a #2 and #2 money is in the 7-8M range nowadays easily. Especially in the open market or a resign of a guy who's probably not giving a hometown to a team he spent a single season with. Which is why we should probably move him for a premium pick/prospect at the deadline...in or out of the playoffs.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Resigning him fits BM’s MO……if he’s a fit, he won’t hit the open market, or at least we’ll try to make sure that doesn’t happen. The likelyhood of a sell off while in playoff position is extremely low. More fantasy hockey than reality…

 

[Holtbyisms]

Resigning him fits BM’s MO……if he’s a fit, he won’t hit the open market, or at least we’ll try to make sure that doesn’t happen. The likelyhood of a sell off while in playoff position is extremely low. More fantasy hockey than reality…

I mean, we made the playoffs last year and we traded a few key components away in the process. That isn't fantasy, that's maximizing your value. The goal would be to get your Hershey guys as ready as possible to plug in and keep the train rolling while moving assets and still chase a playoff spot. There's a slim to none chance this team is a real cup contender and they have to know that or I question their evaluation process.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I mean, we made the playoffs last year and we traded a few key components away in the process. That isn't fantasy, that's maximizing your value. The goal would be to get your Hershey guys as ready as possible to plug in and keep the train rolling while moving assets and still chase a playoff spot. There's a slim to none chance this team is a real cup contender and they have to know that or I question their evaluation process.

We’ll see. We didn’t trade a top defender which is what some of you appear to be predicting this guy is going to play like…

Caps usually try to resign the good players they trade for.

Expecting a sell off is silly. They think they’ve turned this roster around. Only season-crushing injuries to key guys, will have us in a sell off position for anyone truly valuable IMO.

 

[Holtbyisms]

We’ll see. We didn’t trade a top defender which is what some of you appear to be predicting this guy is going to play like…

Caps usually try to resign the good players they trade for.

Expecting a sell off is silly. They think they’ve turned this roster around. Only season-crushing injuries to key guys, will have us in a sell off position for anyone truly valuable IMO.

I absolutely think the plan is to resign him. I think they see him as a potential long term solution to the lack of a PP QB we currently have past 74s career. Hutson is quite a ways out probably assuming his development goes as planned. But if they can't get to a reasonable number GMBM made the move to have flexibility. Almost all of his recent acquisitions have fit that mold. Flippable with expiring contracts outside of Dubois.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I absolutely think the plan is to resign him. I think they see him as a potential long term solution to the lack of a PP QB we currently have past 74s career. Hutson is quite a ways out probably assuming his development goes as planned. But if they can't get to a reasonable number GMBM made the move to have flexibility. Almost all of his recent acquisitions have fit that mold. Flippable with expiring contracts outside of Dubois.

Orlov who asked for unreasonable term is their only significant resigning failure…..If he’s really that good they’ll get it done.

I have my doubts if he’ll be 1b/2a good….

 

[Ridley Simon]

Orlov who asked for unreasonable term is their only significant resigning failure…..If he’s really that good they’ll get it done.

I have my doubts if he’ll be 1b/2a good….

Why?

 

[Jags]

Why?

Because a LD isn't going to get the power play looks he typically would in our system, which will limit his boxcars, which could easily limit the perception of his value. He'll get a solid 5v5 showcase here, but unless our PP changes in a big way, his minutes on the man advantage figure to suffer.

"Hey, this will be a cool place for you to be in maybe 2 or 3 years," isn't the best pitch in the world for a guy that'll have lots of options on the open market.

 

[trick9]

Orlov who asked for unreasonable term is their only significant resigning failure…..If he’s really that good they’ll get it done.

I have my doubts if he’ll be 1b/2a good….

Orlov has nothing to do with failure. It was A+ business. Negotiations are a two-way street and sometimes there just isn't a middle-ground that suits both parties. That was the case with Orlov.

That Orlov 6-year contract he asked would have looked brutal in hindsight since he's already regressing, didn't get the contract he wanted from team he was traded to (Bruins) and he only got 2 years from Canes.