Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Playoffs Approaching

[mriswith]

I still don't understand the love and committment to wanting to bring Zadorov back. He's basically Tyler Myers in that he's a guy that looks good in a prescribed, limited role, but cannot really be played/trusted as a full-time top-four guy. Also similar to Myers, prone to brain cramps.

Yes, on a very reasonable deal I would re-sign him. But that "reasonable deal" is simply not a realistic possibility given his UFA status, the price he can command on the open market, and that this is his one shot at a big payday.

I think Zadorov is substantially better than Myers but despite that, if Myers was as physical and menacing as Zadorov I'd have vastly less complaints about him. It's a huge draw in bringing him back.

I don't understand the desire everyone seems to have to bring Myers back. We're ready to cart 35 year old Ian Cole to a retirement home, but somehow 34 year old Myers who is finishing a 5 year deal in which he wasn't worth his contract in even a single one of those years is a desireable option.

 

[bossram]

Our roster is generally lacking size/toughness as it is and our two most physical mid-roster players (Zadorov and Joshua) are pending UFAs. It's a legitimate concern. It's hard to find big/tough players that can play, it's generally expensive to bring them in, and if those guys leave it will be very difficult to replace what they bring.

I'm just not that concerned about Zadorov leaving. If the best thing we have to say about him is that he's big/physical....I think that says it all.

If we accept that Soucy is better and more likely to be ensconced as the 2LD, Zadorov is simply going to price himself out. I'd rather bring back Cole for cheaper and much less term for 3LD. Soucy is also quite a large human, if that is the concern.

I think Joshua may also price himself out by looking at his pending UFA status as his one-shot at a large contract, but I would prioritize re-signing him over Zadorov.

I don’t mind adding more term to try and bring the cap down for Zadorov. Like $4.0-4.2M x 5 or 6 that’s buyout friendly of course and no trade protection. Nothing about Zadorov suggests he’s going to walk to a bottom feeder team and get paid 500-700k more than the above.

Zadorov is a unicorn type of defenseman. Your not going to find many defenseman with his size, physicality, deterrence while also being exceptionally athletic, quick, and versatile. And if there’s a left handed defenseman in the future that is knocking down the door, Zadorov will still retain his value. He will never not be a commodity barring significant injuries. Zadorov over the last 3 years (since he became of Flame) has been noticeably steady and consistent as a 4B/5th defenseman.

Also, you cannot compare Zadorov to Myers. The only thing remotely similar about them is their large frame, the rest ends there, statistically, eye test, play style, etc suggests this.

I cannot comprehend this...

Carson Soucy is fundamentally a better player than him. This is not a unicorn player we can't fathom to let go of. Z is comparable to Myers in that he looks good in a prescribed, limited role. Like Myers. And when he's overleveraged, the brain cramps reveal themselves frequently. Like Myers.

 

[bossram]

I think Zadorov is substantially better than Myers but despite that, if Myers was as physical and menacing as Zadorov I'd have vastly less complaints about him. It's a huge draw in bringing him back.

I don't understand the desire everyone seems to have to bring Myers back. We're ready to cart 35 year old Ian Cole to a retirement home, but somehow 34 year old Myers who is finishing a 5 year deal in which he wasn't worth his contract in even a single one of those years is a desireable option.

I don't want Myers back either. And this is a bizarre point because largely the consensus is that most people are not really Myers fans, but it appears Myers would be much more likely to re-sign at a favourable deal, commensurate with playing him in more of a 3rd pair role.

My issue with Zadorov is more to do with the price point. He will be looking for his payday and the terms I would sign him at are likely much, much lower than his camp are seeking.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Projecting lineups like myers isn't coming back seems like a waste of time to me.

Myers getting cole money on a multi year deal, Cole back for under two mil, tanev back too if available.
Zadorov getting a multi year offer under five mil here (~hronek$) take it or leave it, five plus they'll let him walk to the highest bidder.

 

[MS]

I'm just not that concerned about Zadorov leaving. If the best thing we have to say about him is that he's big/physical....I think that says it all.

If we accept that Soucy is better and more likely to be ensconced as the 2LD, Zadorov is simply going to price himself out. I'd rather bring back Cole for cheaper and much less term for 3LD. Soucy is also quite a large human, if that is the concern.

I think Joshua may also price himself out by looking at his pending UFA status as his one-shot at a large contract, but I would prioritize re-signing him over Zadorov.


I cannot comprehend this...

Carson Soucy is fundamentally a better player than him. This is not a unicorn player we can't fathom to let go of. Z is comparable to Myers in that he looks good in a prescribed, limited role. Like Myers. And when he's overleveraged, the brain cramps reveal themselves frequently. Like Myers.

It's not just that he's big and tough, it's that he's big and tough and can play. This will be his 3rd straight season with 20-25 ES points and he's a solid 4-5D. He isn't some 5-point glass-and-out #6D that you get into 12 minutes/game for his physicality and hope he gets by.

And guys who are that big and physical and can play top-4 minutes are *really* hard to find. And this is a team lacking size and toughness already.

Absolutely Soucy is better. But, I mean, the fact that Brock Boeser or whoever is better than Joshua doesn't mean we don't sign Joshua.

I have no interest in bringing Cole back. He was a nice one-year stopgap signing but he's about to turn 35 and the smart move is to say thank you and walk and let someone else pay to watch his career wind down.

Neither Myers nor Zadorov have been exposed much this season for mistakes and brain cramps, incidentally, and there's a reason we're the #4 team in the league defensively and have currently given up 14 goals in our last 9 games even with our backup in net for most of that stretch. Our blueline from 1-7 is really solid and reliable.

 

[Petey O]

I think the Tocchet/Foote effect will ensure the FO does the best they can to bring back Joshua and Zadorov.

 

[bossram]

It's not just that he's big and tough, it's that he's big and tough and can play. This will be his 3rd straight season with 20-25 ES points and he's a solid 4-5D. He isn't some 5-point glass-and-out #6D that you get into 12 minutes/game for his physicality and hope he gets by.

And guys who are that big and physical and can play top-4 minutes are *really* hard to find. And this is a team lacking size and toughness already.

Absolutely Soucy is better. But, I mean, the fact that Brock Boeser or whoever is better than Joshua doesn't mean we don't sign Joshua.

I have no interest in bringing Cole back. He was a nice one-year stopgap signing but he's about to turn 35 and the smart move is to say thank you and walk and let someone else pay to watch his career wind down.

Neither Myers nor Zadorov have been exposed much this season for mistakes and brain cramps, incidentally, and there's a reason we're the #4 team in the league defensively and have currently given up 14 goals in our last 9 games even with our backup in net for most of that stretch. Our blueline from 1-7 is really solid and reliable.

I think we agree on the evaluation of Zadorov as a 4/5 actually. I'm not remotely saying he's a bad player.

It seems where we disagree is what he is worth paying. I think Z is looking to get a minimum of a $4M x 4 contract (likely more) in UFA and I don't think it's worth paying him that, especially when he ideally slotted as your 3LD.

Cole's defensive metrics are generally solid, it's almost a guarantee he'd come back cheaper than Z and on a 1 year deal, and I think they can get the optimal performance out of him at 3LD, which is why I would bring him back.

Use the flexibility saved to add a legit top-four player at 2RD.

 

[JT Milker]

As long as we sign Tanev so he can retire as a Canuck like he’s supposed to, everything else is gravy.

 

[Nucker101]

Tanev also turns 35 in December, I'd love to see him back but if some desperate GM gives him 3 or 4 years, I don't match that. On the flip side, if I'm Tanev, I probably approach this as my last contract and want some term and trade protection.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

As long as we sign Tanev so he can retire as a Canuck like he’s supposed to, everything else is gravy.

With the trajectory of Juulsens game as a solid third pairing RHD..and if Hronek re-signs..I’m not really sure how feasible it is to sign Tanev (there’s a ton of mileage on that body).

 

[mriswith]

I don't want Myers back either. And this is a bizarre point because largely the consensus is that most people are not really Myers fans, but it appears Myers would be much more likely to re-sign at a favourable deal, commensurate with playing him in more of a 3rd pair role.

My issue with Zadorov is more to do with the price point. He will be looking for his payday and the terms I would sign him at are likely much, much lower than his camp are seeking.

I feel about Zadorov similar to the way I feel about Hronek - I'm willing to accept an overpay relative to their actual on ice results due to how hard they are to replace. I think Zad has been roughly worth his deal while on our team this year so if we have to give him a small raise to keep him I can accept that.

 

[oceanchild]

With the trajectory of Juulsens game as a solid third pairing RHD..and if Hronek re-signs..I’m not really sure how feasible it is to sign Tanev (there’s a ton of mileage on that body).

Tanev is coming back, we will
Re-sign Myers as well and I wouldn’t be surprised if we keep Friedman for depth with Juulsens. I am not sure Hronek is back. I think he might find his way out in a cap crunch. I can see us going after Guentzel and/Toffoli in the off-season to round out the top 6.

This team is going to set themselves up for EP(D) and Willander to be cheap options on Defense and load up the forward group in the next couple years IMO.

 

[TruGr1t]

I feel about Zadorov similar to the way I feel about Hronek - I'm willing to accept an overpay relative to their actual on ice results due to how hard they are to replace. I think Zad has been roughly worth his deal while on our team this year so if we have to give him a small raise to keep him I can accept that.

It becomes a numbers game at some point, though. Zadorov is certainly unique due to his size and profile, but how much can you actually spend on him. Assuming you want to keep Hronek it will be tough to pay both guys $12M-$13M in AAV and manage the cap. Assuming the numbers as rumoured are roughly $7.5M-$8M (Hronek) and $4.5M+ (Zadorov).

I don't think anyone wants to lose Zadorov, but depending on his ask he will be hard to fit. That's assuming you give Hronek the contract he apparently wants, if you don't, obviously have more flexibility.

 

[MS]

I think we agree on the evaluation of Zadorov as a 4/5 actually. I'm not remotely saying he's a bad player.

It seems where we disagree is what he is worth paying. I think Z is looking to get a minimum of a $4M x 4 contract (likely more) in UFA and I don't think it's worth paying him that, especially when he ideally slotted as your 3LD.

Cole's defensive metrics are generally solid, it's almost a guarantee he'd come back cheaper than Z and on a 1 year deal, and I think they can get the optimal performance out of him at 3LD, which is why I would bring him back.

Use the flexibility saved to add a legit top-four player at 2RD.

I don't think Cole is as good as Zadorov now (and certainly not since about game 30 of the season), he doesn't add any of the toughness/x-factor that Zadorov does, and there is a huge risk he falls off a cliff next season at age 35 that doesn't really exist with Zadorov. I think that thinking you're coming out ahead by saving $1 million with Cole over Zadorov is a fool's bet.

Size/toughness is still a thing in this league and it still matters.

 

[LemonSauceD]

.

I'm just not that concerned about Zadorov leaving. If the best thing we have to say about him is that he's big/physical....I think that says it all.

If we accept that Soucy is better and more likely to be ensconced as the 2LD, Zadorov is simply going to price himself out. I'd rather bring back Cole for cheaper and much less term for 3LD. Soucy is also quite a large human, if that is the concern.

I think Joshua may also price himself out by looking at his pending UFA status as his one-shot at a large contract, but I would prioritize re-signing him over Zadorov.


I cannot comprehend this...

Carson Soucy is fundamentally a better player than him. This is not a unicorn player we can't fathom to let go of. Z is comparable to Myers in that he looks good in a prescribed, limited role. Like Myers. And when he's overleveraged, the brain cramps reveal themselves frequently. Like Myers.

Did you consider Soucy a #4 defenseman before this year? Did you consider Soucy to be a top 4 shutdown defenseman? Because before this year his career high in minutes was 18:22. Soucy’s career average is 16:25, that’s near borderline bottom pairing defenseman averages.

This year is his first ever year eclipsing 19 minutes a night and more recently 20 minutes, 1 night. Meanwhile Zadorov has averaged 18 minutes a night in Calgary and Colorado, with multiple games where he’s played upwards of 22 minutes.

To me, it’s not even a debate, Zadorov is a borderline #4B defenseman, who is an above average bottom pairing defenseman (quite frankly a luxury at that) that is certainly capable of playing top 4 minutes when asked of him. He does not need to be sheltered at all in his current role and to suggest he does or that he currently is being sheltered — is a fallacy, as he boasts the highest number of defensive zone starts, and his corsi rel is better than Soucy, Cole, and Myers, meaning the team is worse defensively when he’s off the ice vs when he’s on, 5 on 5.

Meanwhile, Myers playing the lowest minutes in years, getting reduced assignments, as well as given overall easier competition has him currently on pace for his best statistical season as a 34 year old in nearly 6 years. Myers has a large enough sample size, 5 years to be exact, in which you can deduce the fact that he’s been on a massive downward trajectory and that he’s continuously shown he hadn’t been capable of holding his own playing top 4 minutes. His possession, rel, GSVA, on ice impact have all been atrocious. If you go far enough career wise, he’s always been a bottom pairing quality defenseman, whereas Zadorov you see a natural and positive progression the last 4 years that meets the standards and expectations of a top 4 defenseman.

There are 5 players, all top 4 physical defensive defenseman I had on the top of my head that I’ve compared his metrics to factoring in cap, minutes played, and overall on ice impact and I’ve found that career wise, he is significantly better at essentially all areas than Cernak, Gudas, Trouba, Carlo, and around the same as Pelech.

sites used Naturalstattrick/hockey-reference.

It’s quite a lazy to just think “oh big man physical defense guy, he is a bottom pairrrrr” but then for some odd reason, comparable players around the league who have had favourable and opportunistic kicks at the can to establish themselves in a higher force fed role have this biased and preconceived assumption that they are simply just top 4 defenseman, nothing of which is actually deduced by any statistical measure but by league wide reputation based on biased factors.

 

[LemonSauceD]

On a side note, Cole and Myers have been for the most part solid this year in their roles, but between them is $9M of cap (coming off the books, yes). They’ve served their purpose well this year, but I have no interest in using that $9M to re sign them both. There are much better options out there.

 

[TruGr1t]

On a side note, Cole and Myers have been for the most part solid this year in their roles, but between them is $9M of cap (coming off the books, yes). They’ve served their purpose well this year, but I have no interest in using that $9M to re sign them both. There are much better options out there.

Hronek's raise will likely eat up the vast majority of that if you sign him.

 

[bossram]

I don't think Cole is as good as Zadorov now (and certainly not since about game 30 of the season), he doesn't add any of the toughness/x-factor that Zadorov does, and there is a huge risk he falls off a cliff next season at age 35 that doesn't really exist with Zadorov. I think that thinking you're coming out ahead by saving $1 million with Cole over Zadorov is a fool's bet.

Size/toughness is still a thing in this league and it still matters.

There is a risk Cole declines, but that risk is mitigated by playing on a 1-year deal. I am also envisioning the extra flexibility to allow for in-season upgrades/adjustments to be made.

Regarding the bolded, yes it does. I clearly don't value it as highly as you, to the extent that I would re-sign Zadorov to a clear overpay, a guy who ideally you want as your 3LD.

It's also not a $1M saving. Its many, many millions over several years. Locking Zadorov to the overpay contract it will require to retain him very likely precludes upgrading the 2RD spot (assuming they re-sign Hronek).

.

Did you consider Soucy a #4 defenseman before this year? Did you consider Soucy to be a top 4 shutdown defenseman? Because before this year his career high in minutes was 18:22. Soucy’s career average is 16:25, that’s near borderline bottom pairing defenseman averages.

This year is his first ever year eclipsing 19 minutes a night and more recently 20 minutes, 1 night. Meanwhile Zadorov has averaged 18 minutes a night in Calgary and Colorado, with multiple games where he’s played upwards of 22 minutes.

To me, it’s not even a debate, Zadorov is a borderline #4B defenseman, who is an above average bottom pairing defenseman (quite frankly a luxury at that) that is certainly capable of playing top 4 minutes when asked of him. He does not need to be sheltered at all in his current role and to suggest he does or that he currently is being sheltered — is a fallacy, as he boasts the highest number of defensive zone starts, and his corsi rel is better than Soucy, Cole, and Myers, meaning the team is worse defensively when he’s off the ice vs when he’s on, 5 on 5.

Meanwhile, Myers playing the lowest minutes in years, getting reduced assignments, as well as given overall easier competition has him currently on pace for his best statistical season as a 34 year old in nearly 6 years. Myers has a large enough sample size, 5 years to be exact, in which you can deduce the fact that he’s been on a massive downward trajectory and that he’s continuously shown he hadn’t been capable of holding his own playing top 4 minutes. His possession, rel, GSVA, on ice impact have all been atrocious. If you go far enough career wise, he’s always been a bottom pairing quality defenseman, whereas Zadorov you see a natural and positive progression the last 4 years that meets the standards and expectations of a top 4 defenseman.

There are 5 players, all top 4 physical defensive defenseman I had on the top of my head that I’ve compared his metrics to factoring in cap, minutes played, and overall on ice impact and I’ve found that career wise, he is significantly better at essentially all areas than Cernak, Gudas, Trouba, Carlo, and Pelech.

sites used Naturalstattrick/hockey-reference.

It’s quite a lazy to just think “oh big man physical defense guy, he is a bottom pairrrrr” but then for some odd reason, comparable players around the league who have had favourable and opportunistic kicks at the can to establish themselves in a higher force fed role have this biased and preconceived assumption that they are simply just top 4 defenseman, nothing of which is actually deduced by any statistical measure but by league wide reputation based on biased factors.

Regarding the bolded, I've addressed this in other posts recently in this thread. I was concerned Soucy would not be able to handle a true top-four role prior to this season, largely because he had not been playing that role in Seattle or Minnesota. However, I have been very impressed with his defensive ability in Vancouver, clearly demonstrating he is the Canucks 2LD by quality.

Again, as I've said multiple times, I'm really not saying Zadorov is a bad player. I view him as a 4/5 guy, nearly the same evaluation as you. What I am trying to convey is that I don't think he's worth the contract it will take to retain him. If he wants to take a haircut on AAV and a term of 3 years, then yes, I would love him back. I suspect he will be looking for much more as a UFA. Per EvolvingHockey, Zadorov's xG relTM (not Corsi, and RelTM is a superior metric to pure on-off relative splits), is last among all of the Canucks' regular defensemen. I don't think he is that bad, but to me, by metrics and eye test, he is not a clear top-four defenseman.

I am not and have never been a Myers fan/supporter. I don't really want him back, even at a reduced price and role. I agree with everything you say about Myers and have been making the same arguments for years. I don't really get what point you're trying to argue by bringing Myers up here. You are largely arguing against things I am not saying.

 

[strattonius]

Zadorov needs to be a priority signing.

To me he's a good 2nd pairing Dman. His skillset is extremely rare and impossible to replace.

Resign Zadorov, let Myers and Cole walk.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Did you consider Soucy a #4 defenseman before this year? Did you consider Soucy to be a top 4 shutdown defenseman? Because before this year his career high in minutes was 18:22. Soucy’s career average is 16:25, that’s near borderline bottom pairing defenseman averages.

This year is his first ever year eclipsing 19 minutes a night and more recently 20 minutes, 1 night.

in 21-22 soucy averaged 17:40 for the season and played over 20 minutes 9 times.

this season he is averaging 17:41 and has broken 20 minutes 4 times

 

[LemonSauceD]

There is a risk Cole declines, but that risk is mitigated by playing on a 1-year deal. I am also envisioning the extra flexibility to allow for in-season upgrades/adjustments to be made.

Regarding the bolded, yes it does. I clearly don't value it as highly as you, to the extent that I would re-sign Zadorov to a clear overpay, a guy who ideally you want as your 3LD.

It's also not a $1M saving. Its many, many millions over several years. Locking Zadorov to the overpay contract it will require to retain him very likely precludes upgrading the 2RD spot (assuming they re-sign Hronek).

Regarding the bolded, I've addressed this in other posts recently in this thread. I was concerned Soucy would not be able to handle a true top-four role prior to this season, largely because he had not been playing that role in Seattle or Minnesota. However, I have been very impressed with his defensive ability in Vancouver, clearly demonstrating he is the Canucks 2LD by quality.

Again, as I've said multiple times, I'm really not saying Zadorov is a bad player. I view him as a 4/5 guy, nearly the same evaluation as you. What I am trying to convey is that I don't think he's worth the contract it will take to retain him. If he wants to take a haircut on AAV and a term of 3 years, then yes, I would love him back. I suspect he will be looking for much more as a UFA. Per EvolvingHockey, Zadorov's xG relTM (not Corsi, and RelTM is a superior metric to pure on-off relative splits), is last among all of the Canucks' regular defensemen. I don't think he is that bad, but to me, by metrics and eye test, he is not a clear top-four defenseman.

I am not and have never been a Myers fan/supporter. I don't really want him back, even at a reduced price and role. I agree with everything you say about Myers and have been making the same arguments for years. I don't really get what point you're trying to argue by bringing Myers up here. You are largely arguing against things I am not saying.

This was in response to you comparing Zadorov to Myers, two very completely different players.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

With the trajectory of Juulsens game as a solid third pairing RHD..and if Hronek re-signs..I’m not really sure how feasible it is to sign Tanev (there’s a ton of mileage on that body).

Translated from Benning Bro:

My hero kicked that bum Tanev to the curb for a reason. Move on already. GOSH.

 

[LemonSauceD]

in 21-22 soucy averaged 17:40 for the season and played over 20 minutes 9 times.

this season he is averaging 17:41 and has broken 20 minutes 4 times

Yes you’re right, I was looking at his previous season’s ice time and glossed over that season.

He’s had some nights where he’s played as low as 15 for a couple nights and as high as 20. Kinda weird Lol

 

[bossram]

This was in response to you comparing Zadorov to Myers, two very completely different players.

Sure. In a couple of aspects, I think they are similar. I also think Z is better. I don't want to bring Myers back. I don't want to bring Z back at the price he will command.

 

[MS]

There is a risk Cole declines, but that risk is mitigated by playing on a 1-year deal. I am also envisioning the extra flexibility to allow for in-season upgrades/adjustments to be made.

Regarding the bolded, yes it does. I clearly don't value it as highly as you, to the extent that I would re-sign Zadorov to a clear overpay, a guy who ideally you want as your 3LD.

It's also not a $1M saving. Its many, many millions over several years. Locking Zadorov to the overpay contract it will require to retain him very likely precludes upgrading the 2RD spot (assuming they re-sign Hronek).

The priority is icing the best team for next year. And the best mix. If guys like Zadorov and Joshua walk, we're going to end up paying through the teeth for other big physical players who probably won't be as effective.

Zadorov is the sort of player who will remain in demand around the league. If you sign him for 24-25 and then you see an opportunity to upgrade in 25-26 ... he isn't going to be that difficult to move.

After watching Cole's level of performance drop as this season has gone along, I have very limited confidence that banking on his legs to last another year is a good idea. We're already kind of nursing him to the finish line this season.