Can Connor McDavid break up the "big 4"?

[CanadienShark]

No
Like legitimately it's not an opinion, this isn't an art review it's a factual summary of something that happened

I'm not here to be your English teacher. You can look up the definition if you like, but I don't think you will. Enjoy your time here. Have a nice day.

You seemingly don't understand the sport. Maybe watch more and post less.


The moon landing is fact. Some people have the opinion that it didn't happen but it's still a fact.

See above.

 

[Lara Emily]

I'm not here to be your English teacher. You can look up the definition if you like, but I don't think you will. Enjoy your time here. Have a nice day.


See above.

Objective reality exists

 

[Overrated]

It's so hard to compare goalies vs other positions, goalies should really be a separate ranking. But OK, I guess you can make a case for Hasek and Roy (especially Hasek) if you value the goalie position.

But I think Crosby has a very good case against all of Beliveau, Bourque and Lafleur, both in terms of production and hardware.

I only have Hasek Jagr and Makarov as clearly ahead. Bourque, Lidstrom, Hull and Beliveau might have a case but I am not sure if I should rank any of them ahead of Crosby.

 

[CanadienShark]

Objective reality exists

Definitions of words in English also exist. Give it a rest. Have a nice day.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Which 10 is that?

2006 or 2007 until whenever McDavid surpassed him. 2018? 2019? Whenever.

 

[Overrated]

2006 or 2007 until whenever McDavid surpassed him. 2018? 2019? Whenever.

I think peak Ovi got him in the late 00s.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I think peak Ovi got him in the late 00s.

There's a brief case there. It's not for me, but it's not unreasonable. Athletic prime Ovechkin was diesel.

 

[buffalowing88]

I think peak Ovi got him in the late 00s.

Outside of the handful of years where concussions seemed to put his career in jeopardy, I don't think there's a time when I would want Ovi over Crosby. Crosby was a franchise center with a track record of playoff success even at the end of the 00s.

 

[bobholly39]

It's so incredibly annoying how so many on HF always feel the need to completely rip one guy to try and prop up the other.

 

[daver]

Neither is Crosby.

I would give Crosby the defensive edge, but neither are anywhere near being a top defensive player in the league.

Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, and Jagr are all closer to each other defensively than they are to a Bergeron.

Crosby gets a definite edge over McDavid for defense, and those others, and will get a larger edge likely as McDavid ages. But the bigger edge is deployment vs. those three as Crosby was not necessarily deployed in an all offense mode but more in a role like Bergeron.

 

[daver]

I'm trying to decide whether McDavid is roughly equal to Crosby in ability (but with better health), or if he's simply a better player.

Despite their careers overlapping, the scoring environments during their respective peaks have been very different. (This is probably obvious to all of us, but it's not the case on the main boards). Between 2011 and 2017, a span of seven seasons, there were just five 100+ point seasons. (Granted, one of those years was the lockout-shortened 2013, but only one player was on pace). In 2022 alone, there were eight players who scored 100+ points (and we had even more than that in each of 2023 and 2024). Nine years into their careers, adjusted for the scoring environment, there's little separating them in terms of per-game production. (McDavid's 2023 season was hugely impressive - but I'll admit that it feels a bit less special now that two rivals both scored 140+ points the year after).

McDavid already won more Hart and Art Ross trophies than Crosby. It's not difficult to imagine that a healthier Crosby could have won five or six Art Ross trophies, and three or four Hart trophies. (Obviously the advantage goes to McDavid, for actually doing that, rather than merely being on pace to do so). But that supports the "McDavid is similar to Crosby, just healthier" argument. On the other hand, even if we use Crosby's partial seasons (like 2011), he never separated himself from the pack quite to the same extent as McDavid did in 2021 and 2023. Close, but not quite (and, again, that's two full seasons for McDavid vs a half season for Crosby, and then a 22 game fragment in 2012).

Crosby's advantages over McDavid are two-way play, playoffs, and longevity:

1. Two way play? Crosby is a better two-way player, but I don't think the advantage is too big. McDavid is underrated in this regard (I'll say the same thing I always say about Jagr - neither is great defensively in the conventional sense, but they still have a huge, positive impact on their teams' goal differential because they create so many scoring chances). Long term, I don't think this will affect the comparison too much.
2. Playoffs? Crosby is probably the best playoff performer of his generation. He's only the 6th player in NHL history (and the only one who didn't play in the 1980s or early 1990s) to score 200+ points. He had four playoff runs where he was at least in contention for the Conn Smythe trophy - I can't think of many players, post 1980, who we can say that about. And if we count international tournaments, he scored one of the biggest goals in hockey history, and was outstanding in the 2015 tournament (MVP and leading scorer). At the same time, there are some obvious weaknesses - he has disappointing output in the SC finals, he only led his team in scoring once in four trips to the finals, and he was underwhelming in 2010 prior to the golden goal. McDavid's playoff resume is obviously much shorter (before this spring, he had appeared in fewer than 50 games - not his fault, but it still has to be rated "incomplete"). McDavid is giving us a historically great playoff run - win or lose, this is clearly better than anything Crosby has ever done in the spring. I'd still evaluate Crosby as the better playoff performer overall, but this has helped make a serious dent.
3. Longevity? This is tough to forecast. Crosby is starting to rival Bourque for high-level consistency, year after year. Few players in history have had as many years as a Hart finalist, or a top ten scorer (nobody in history has more point-per-game seasons, but that comes across as era-based trivia, rather than a serious argument). McDavid is still only 27. He's one of the fastest players in history, but the concern is, as he gets older, if he loses that speed advantage (either due to an injury, or just aging), how much will his play be affected? McDavid could win another 2-3 Hart and Art Ross trophies, and become only the second player in history to score 2,000 points; or he could deal with recurring injuries and end up with all kinds of gaps in his resume, like Lemieux. Given McDavid's dedication to the sport, and his excellent hockey sense, he can probably play at an elite level well into his 30's, even with diminished speed. But let's give him credit for that if/when it happens (rather than simply assuming it'll happen). Crosby - at least for now - has a big advantage in this category.

As for Lemieux? I agree that McDavid has had times when he's performed at close to Lemieux's level (2021 and 2023 regular seasons, 2022 and 2024 playoffs). I find this comparison easier - Lemieux was a more innately talented player (with a more versatile skillset, and he was pretty clearly the better goal scorer). I have a tough time picturing Lemieux ever getting outscored by Kucherov or MacKinnon. I can't see McDavid ever kicking Lemieux out of the "big four" entirely, but I can envision him turning it into a "big five". Lemieux is the better player, and I don't think that assessment will ever change, but it's possible that if McDavid keeps playing at this level for 5+ years, his career value will be so good, it would be impossible to ignore. (Similar to Howe vs Orr - I have no doubt that Orr is the better player, but I rank Howe higher due to the immense gap in career value). But let's not leap ahead too quickly. McDavid still has to play 270 times just to match Lemieux's game count. It's still many years away (late 2020's) until we can even consider the possibility of McDavid passing Lemieux in career value.

The fact that we're having a serious conversation about McDavid turning it into the "big five" tells me that, regardless of health, he's probably at least half a step above Crosby. We can make a semi-plausible case for Crosby as the consensus #5 all-time (see link) but I never thought he could remold the top of the pyramid entirely. McDavid can do that, and we're lucky that we get to witness his career.

Era and injuries add a "what if" to Crosby's career and raw number totals. Teammates and situation add a "what if" to McDavid's championship resume.

 

[norrisnick]

2006 or 2007 until whenever McDavid surpassed him. 2018? 2019? Whenever.

No possible window of a reign for Crosby starts before 2013. Ovechkin was solidly ahead from the start of their careers through 2010 and then Crosby was promptly hurt for most of three seasons. There is no amount of mental gymnastics that vaults a player with 63 out of a possible 164 games played as the top player in the league. And then '16-'17 is when McDavid started his run. There simply isn't a 10 year window unless you ignore runs of dominance by other players at the start and end of that 10 year span.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I'm just talking about from a talent evaluation perspective...not a "season achievement" (or whatever) perspective. I don't think we need another Crosby vs Ovechkin debate to break out here. You don't see it my way, that's fair enough. This has been litigated to death, I saw it all, I've heard it all, I know the numbers, and the awards and all that...I got it.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Crosby gets a definite edge over McDavid for defense, and those others, and will get a larger edge likely as McDavid ages. But the bigger edge is deployment vs. those three as Crosby was not necessarily deployed in an all offense mode but more in a role like Bergeron.

He really wasnt deployed in a way beyond an average defensively forward would be and not in the same universe as how Bergeron was used.

- Career o zone start % of 66.2%
- Lowest o-zone start % in his career was 55.9% and only has 2 seasons below 60% o-zone starts.
- Highest PK TOI in a season is 1 minute a game and his career average is ~30 seconds (403 SH minutes in 1112 games)


For comparison, here's Bergeron:

- Career o-zone start % of 51.9%
- Lowest o-zone start % in his career was 41.8% and only has 1 season above 60% o-zone starts. He has 9 seasons below 50%
- Highest PK TOI in a season was 2 minutes a game and his career average is 1:45 per game (1784 minutes in 1065 games)

 

[norrisnick]

I'm just talking about from a talent evaluation perspective...not a "season achievement" (or whatever) perspective. I don't think we need another Crosby vs Ovechkin debate to break out here. You don't see it my way, that's fair enough. This has been litigated to death, I saw it all, I've heard it all, I know the numbers, and the awards and all that...I got it.

Talent evaluation leads to you weird shit like Mario being the best player in the world in '94-'95 or after he retired.

If you don't play, you're not a player that's there to be ranked.

 

[tabness]

as always another topic which has nothing to do with Crosby becomes about Crosby lol...

 

[Lara Emily]

as always another topic which has nothing to do with Crosby becomes about Crosby lol...

I mean it's not nothing to do with

But fair enough lol

 

[jigglysquishy]

I mean it's not nothing to do with

But fair enough lol

The thread title lists 5 players.

None of them are Crosby.

 

[Lara Emily]

Talent evaluation leads to you weird shit like Mario being the best player in the world in '94-'95 or after he retired.

If you don't play, you're not a player that's there to be ranked.

Ohhh can we have the conversation about Mario being raw talent and skill greatest of all time

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

The thread title lists 5 players.

None of them are Crosby.

True, but a good amount of folks have Crosby at 5, so it makes sense that there's a debate on if McDavid has passed him since he'd have to in order to break up the Big 4

 

[norrisnick]

Ohhh can we have the conversation about Mario being raw talent and skill greatest of all time

Knock yourself out.

 

[Beljavskij]

No possible window of a reign for Crosby starts before 2013. Ovechkin was solidly ahead from the start of their careers through 2010 and then Crosby was promptly hurt for most of three seasons. There is no amount of mental gymnastics that vaults a player with 63 out of a possible 164 games played as the top player in the league. And then '16-'17 is when McDavid started his run. There simply isn't a 10 year window unless you ignore runs of dominance by other players at the start and end of that 10 year span.

That's not really true. At least not after Crosby sweeping the awards in '07. I remember it as Crosby generally being considered the better player, even though Ovechkin had a couple better seasons in that 10-year span. Since Crosby also won the cup in '09 and Olympics in '10, the debate was generally between Crosby and Ovechkin, but Crosby was so consistent it was hard to argue that anyone else was better if you look at that whole span between '07-'17.

 

[finchster]

That was 6 years ago, and Crosby has added almost 500 points since then, a 2nd place in Hart voting, as well as a 4th place. All after his age 32 season. Shouldn't that move him up a bit or is he the exact same player he was 6 years ago?

I mean, maybe? But guys who have claims just getting into the top-10 of all time are guys like Hasek, Bourque, Harvey, Lidstrom, Roy, Richard etc. I will listen to arguments about why Crosby is better than these guys. I wouldn't find it egregious if someone had Crosby in their top-10

I think with these guys, you are kind of splitting hairs as to who is top-10 and who isn't.

 

[MadLuke]

Crosby gets a definite edge over McDavid for defense, and those others, and will get a larger edge likely as McDavid ages. But the bigger edge is deployment vs. those three as Crosby was not necessarily deployed in an all offense mode but more in a role like Bergeron.

Bergeron seem pushing it, wonder how more Crosby would have deployed offensively without Malkin, which for obvious reason team could tend to maximize offensive deployment for him more. Since Crosby line become more the clear number 1 line with a Guentzel instead of Dupuis-Kunitz type he did get quite good offensive deployment.

- Lowest o-zone start % in his career was 55.9% and only has 2 seasons below 60% o-zone starts.

Sidney Crosby - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

48.35 in 2013 ?, short lock-out season too.. but 2011-2014 was probably peak 2-way Crosby.... when he had his grown men strength, good at faceoff, experience, but still skating-energy to do it and linemates that would be natural for it, while Malkin had Neal-Jokinen type winger.

 

[norrisnick]

That's not really true. At least not after Crosby sweeping the awards in '07. I remember it as Crosby generally being considered the better player, even though Ovechkin had a couple better seasons in that 10-year span. Since Crosby also won the cup in '09 and Olympics in '10, the debate was generally between Crosby and Ovechkin, but Crosby was so consistent it was hard to argue that anyone else was better if you look at that whole span between '07-'17.

There was always an attempted narrative, but it didn't align with the play on the ice. '06 clearly Ovechkin. '07 clearly Crosby, '08-'10 clearly Ovechkin. After 2010, Ovechkin dipped, yes, but Crosby also barely played for three seasons. So again, no prolonged reign can start before 2013 because prior to that others were better and by 2017 he's running into McDavid.

If you slide far enough forward to avoid McDavid and ignore that Ovechkin was better their first five seasons, sure... 10 years.