C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 5

[Daximus]

60 pts would be a disaster lol

I think 60 points is very very far from a disaster for an 18 year old kid. Even if he just scored 60 points it would be a top 15 season all time for an U19 player.


I think anyone expecting him to come in a blow the doors off the NHL needs to check themselves. A lot is going to be dependent on where he ends up, what kind of minutes he's given and how he gels with his linemates. While I agree 60 is a good floor it is certainly not bad by any stretch of the imagination.

I think given what we have seen and if he truly is generational as some would suggest a 60-70 point season is a really f***ing good starting point for any 18 year old. If he gets up into the 70-80 point area we are looking at a top 5 season all time for U19 players. If he's in the 90-100 point area as an 18 year old rookie then yeah he's pretty much as close to generational as they come.

 

[ello]

I think 60 points is very very far from a disaster for an 18 year old kid. Even if he just scored 60 points it would be a top 15 season all time for an U19 player.


I think anyone expecting him to come in a blow the doors off the NHL needs to check themselves. A lot is going to be dependent on where he ends up, what kind of minutes he's given and how he gels with his linemates. While I agree 60 is a good floor it is certainly not bad by any stretch of the imagination.

I think given what we have seen and if he truly is generational as some would suggest a 60-70 point season is a really f***ing good starting point for any 18 year old. If he gets up into the 70-80 point area we are looking at a top 5 season all time for U19 players. If he's in the 90-100 point area as an 18 year old rookie then yeah he's pretty much as close to generational as they come.

I think a lot depends on his landing spot as well. An 80+ point season in Arizona would basically be generational lol

 

[daver]

I think given what we have seen and if he truly is generational as some would suggest a 60-70 point season is a really f***ing good starting point for any 18 year old. If he gets up into the 70-80 point area we are looking at a top 5 season all time for U19 players. If he's in the 90-100 point area as an 18 year old rookie then yeah he's pretty much as close to generational as they come.

What is your Top 5 list for this?

1. Wayne
2. Crosby (6th in scoring)
3. McDavid 3rd in PPG
4. Dale Hawerchuk 12th in scoring
5. ?

70-80 points gets him into the Top 40/50 scoring range.

 

[Daximus]

I think a lot depends on his landing spot as well. An 80+ point season in Arizona would basically be generational lol

Yeah it's crazy that people would suggest that 60 points is a disaster. McDavid was only on a what 87 point pace his rookie season?

 

[TheDoldrums]

Yeah it's crazy that people would suggest that 60 points is a disaster. McDavid was only on a what 87 point pace his rookie season?

That was an 87 point pace in a much lower scoring league though. Given the current scoring environment, I do think 60 points would be a disappointment for Bedard considering the hype. Disaster is a bit hyperbolic tho.

 

[Realgud]

Yeah it's crazy that people would suggest that 60 points is a disaster. McDavid was only on a what 87 point pace his rookie season?

I don't care about the 60 points being a disaster or not discussion, but just want to point out that in McDavid's rookie season, only Patrick Kane finished above 90 points. Last season, there were 16 players above 90 points. Scoring is much higher.

 

[Daximus]

What is your Top 5 list for this?

1. Wayne
2. Crosby (6th in scoring)
3. McDavid 3rd in PPG
4. Dale Hawerchuk 12th in scoring
5. ?

70-80 points gets him into the Top 40/50 scoring range.

If we go by PPG.

1. Gretzky - 1.73 ppg
2. Hawerchuk - 1.29 ppg
3. Crosby - 1.26 ppg
4. Bodnar - 1.24 ppg
5. Francis - 1.15 ppg
6. Yzerman - 1.09 ppg
7. McDavid - 1.07 ppg

If we go by pure points

1. Gretz - 137
2. Hawerchuk - 103
3. Crosby - 102
4. Yzerman - 87
5. McDavid - 87 point pace.

So I'd say an 70-80 point season is pretty damn good. That likely gets him into the top 10 all time. Anything more and he's going bananas.

I don't care about the 60 points being a disaster or not discussion, but just want to point out that in McDavid's rookie season, only Patrick Kane finished above 90 points. Last season, there were 16 players above 90 points. Scoring is much higher.

Can't argue that but it has been much higher at other points in the leagues history and the top 5 is the top 5 is the top 5.

That was an 87 point pace in a much lower scoring league though. Given the current scoring environment, I do think 60 points would be a disappointment for Bedard considering the hype. Disaster is a bit hyperbolic tho.

Point remains though. If Bedard puts up 87 points next year he's a top 5 all time U19 player.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

I think 60 points is very very far from a disaster for an 18 year old kid. Even if he just scored 60 points it would be a top 15 season all time for an U19 player.


I think anyone expecting him to come in a blow the doors off the NHL needs to check themselves. A lot is going to be dependent on where he ends up, what kind of minutes he's given and how he gels with his linemates. While I agree 60 is a good floor it is certainly not bad by any stretch of the imagination.

I think given what we have seen and if he truly is generational as some would suggest a 60-70 point season is a really f***ing good starting point for any 18 year old. If he gets up into the 70-80 point area we are looking at a top 5 season all time for U19 players. If he's in the 90-100 point area as an 18 year old rookie then yeah he's pretty much as close to generational as they come.

I mean this just isn’t true lol and I expect a lot more out of one of the best prospects of all time

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

And it wasn't any more dominant than Matthews/Eichel, both of whom were not touted as being "generational" (e.g. McDavid/Crosby tier) nor have done anything to reach that level in the NHL.

That is the reasonable comparison to make rather than hypothetically placing Hughes in the WHL.

The best comparison to what he is doing in the W is McDavid in the O. It is statistically disingenuous to deny that. Crosby was more dominant vs. his peers but I would say this was a bit inflated due to a lack of high end talent in those specific years in the Q.

He was solid against the Czechs in their first game and would not have been in the position to have an off-game in the Gold Medal game if not for his heroics.

Who said it needed to be more dominant than Matthews to be on par with Bedard's? Matthews' performance in the Swiss league was every bit as impressive as what Bedard is doing in the WHL.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Hughes' domination in his draft year is real data, that actually happened. And projecting that to the NHL is no more hypothetical than projecting Bedard's NHL numbers. The WHL isn't the end all be all. When two prospects play in different leagues you have to compare them somehow. Hughes' numbers in the UDNTDP were just as impressive as Bedard's in the WHL using that method, so that supports my opinion.

Your opinion that he is on McDavid and Crosby's level is not supported by his WHL production. The only thing that supports that comparison is that 3 game sample in the round robin where he dropped 17 points. You also continue to fail to recognize that Bedard does have some risk to him becoming generational, just like Tavares. If he struggled to get to the middle of the ice against the Czech defense, he very well could struggle more than expected vs NHL defensemen.

No comment on Hughes playing on the single most dominant team we’ve seen in a very long time? That’s very clearly had an impact on his point totals.

The same thing can be said for Crosby/McDavid in their draft year. Both teams they were on were some of the best in the CHL while Bedard plays on a team that’s likely to get pumped in the first round.

His point totals would be much better if he ever got to play on an elite team with elite players.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Yeah it's crazy that people would suggest that 60 points is a disaster. McDavid was only on a what 87 point pace his rookie season?

That 87pt pace would have been third in league scoring, so it’s not really comparable at all.

Bedards point totals will definitely depend on who he ends up with. Landing on Arizona or even worse Chicago would be very, very hard to hit PPG

 

[Daximus]

I mean this just isn’t true lol and I expect a lot more out of one of the best prospects of all time

What isn't true?

That 87pt pace would have been third in league scoring, so it’s not really comparable at all.

Bedards point totals will definitely depend on who he ends up with. Landing on Arizona or even worse Chicago would be very, very hard to hit PPG

And like I said before that's the top 5 all time. Not just one season all time. It's a rare feat for an 18 year old to even hit 60 points.

 

[nbwingsfan]

What isn't true?



And like I said before that's the top 5 all time. Not just one season all time. It's a rare feat for an 18 year old to even hit 60 points.

What’s more impressive:
60pts and let’s say 30th in league scoring
Or
65pts and 60th in league scoring.

You need context in overall numbers over various years.

 

[Daximus]

What’s more impressive:
60pts and let’s say 30th in league scoring
Or
65pts and 60th in league scoring.

You need context in overall numbers over various years.

But even in the highest scoring years there's very few 18 year olds to ever accomplish that, The only context you really need is it's rarely ever done.

 

[daver]

Who said it needed to be more dominant than Matthews to be on par with Bedard's? Matthews' performance in the Swiss league was every bit as impressive as what Bedard is doing in the WHL.

Based on what?

 

[nbwingsfan]

But even in the highest scoring years there's very few 18 year olds to ever accomplish that, The only context you really need is it's rarely ever done.

Yes rarely done, but prospects like Bedard rarely arrive either. 60pts would have also placed him like 85th in league scoring last season, even worse in PPGif he had just 60pts.

For reference Crosby was like 5th in league scoring and McDavid was 3rd in PPG.

Rookie seasons are fairly meaningless in the grand scheme of things, but depending on where he’s drafted I would expect him in the top 50 in scoring at the bare minimum

 

[Daximus]

Yes rarely done, but would have also placed him like 85th in league scoring last season, even worse in PPGif he had just 60pts.

For reference Crosby was like 5th in league scoring and McDavid was 3rd in PPG.

Rookie seasons are fairly meaningless in the grand scheme of things, but depending on where he’s drafted I would expect him in the top 50 in scoring at the bare minimum

That I could see even based on last season that's around 70 points. Which I think could be a fair assessment. Gonna be a big difference in going to a team like Montreal where there is a decent young core to work with and going to Chicago where there is far less. Even the Pens and Oilers had more to work with compared to what Chicago looks like right now. Especially after they likely move Toews and Kane.

Based on what?

Not to detract from the Bedard convo but Matthews season in the NLA was damn impressive. Best season for an U19 player in that leagues history. Most goals, assists and points. He had a very very good season there.

 

[daver]

The same thing can be said for Crosby/McDavid in their draft year. Both teams they were on were some of the best in the CHL while Bedard plays on a team that’s likely to get pumped in the first round.

His point totals would be much better if he ever got to play on an elite team with elite players.

Crosby's was not a great team. He clearly lead that team above its punching weight. McDavid was outscored as a 16 year old by a teammate.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Based on what?

Based on him being the best player in the Swiss league as a draft eligible prospect? That's a much better league than the WHL and Matthews dominated it. He missed 28% of the season and still nearly led the league in goals.

Had Matthews gone to play with the Slivertips I don't think it's unreasonable to think he would also be lapping guys like Andrew Cristall.

 

[daver]

Based on him being the best player in the Swiss league as a draft eligible prospect? That's a much better league than the WHL and Matthews dominated it. He missed 28% of the season and still nearly led the league in goals.

Had Matthews gone to play with the Slivertips I don't think it's unreasonable to think he would also be lapping guys like Andrew Cristall.

Matthews is a generational goalscorer, not player. He is not as elite a playmaker as Bedard.

 

[nbwingsfan]

That I could see even based on last season that's around 70 points. Which I think could be a fair assessment. Gonna be a big difference in going to a team like Montreal where there is a decent young core to work with and going to Chicago where there is far less. Even the Pens and Oilers had more to work with compared to what Chicago looks like right now. Especially after they likely move Toews and Kane.



Not to detract from the Bedard convo but Matthews season in the NLA was damn impressive. Best season for an U19 player in that leagues history. Most goals, assists and points. He had a very very good season there.

Chicago (without Bedard) might be one of the worst non expansion teams in NHL history next season without Kane/Toews.

 

[Daximus]

Chicago (without Bedard) might be one of the worst non expansion teams in NHL history next season without Kane/Toews.

Yeah they will be bad. Even with Bedard they will be bad. As we've seen with McDavid even a generational talent isn't enough to make a franchise a contender overnight. And Bedard would have no where near the supporting caste there and likely won't for some time.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Crosby's was not a great team. He clearly lead that team above its punching weight. McDavid was outscored as a 16 year old by a teammate.

Rimouski was 1st in the Q, lost one single playoff game, and went to the memorial cup finals, only losing to possibly one of the best Junior teams ever assembled.

Had great junior players in Pouliot, Roussin, Scalzo, Coloumbe.

Crosby was a big reason for them being so good, but they were a night and day difference to the disaster Bedard is stuck playing with

 

[prongertheman9]

That is real data. There's a very real chance that Hughes would have put up Bedard like numbers if he played in the CHL instead of the USNTDP.

I don't see Bedard on the Crosby or McDavid tier either. That's an unrealistic expectation as his numbers aren't as good and he lacks the dynamic ability of those 2. With his lack of elite skating ability, his size is a serious question mark, just as much as Tavares skating was. We saw that how much he struggled to get to the middle of the ice at 5v5 vs that big, mobile Czech defense. That's what NHL defenses are going to look like every night.

I see him on the Hughes / Matthews / Eichel level. The data and eye test support that. The only data point that suggests he's above that tier is a 3 game round robin sample in the WJC where he scored 17 points.

Literally all the data so far points to Bedard being on the McDavid/Crosby tier, with the exception of the WJC's - which was a tier above. You have been harping that Bedard's production since his slow start but he's 2.41 ppg now, which is comparable to both Crosby and McDavid's draft years given leagues and teammates. If he averages 3ppg post WJC to finish at around 2.7 ppg, will that finally make you admit he is generational or will you move the goalposts? Because that is exactly what I think Bedard will do.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Literally all the data so far points to Bedard being on the McDavid/Crosby tier, with the exception of the WJC's - which was a tier above. You have been harping that Bedard's production since his slow start but he's 2.41 ppg now, which is comparable to both Crosby and McDavid's draft years given leagues and teammates. If he averages 3ppg post WJC to finish at around 2.7 ppg, will that finally make you admit he is generational or will you move the goalposts? Because that is exactly what I think Bedard will do.

When was I harping on Bedard? Go to his prospect thread I was one of his biggest supporters early in the season.

But his points alone don't make him generational, so him lighting it up in the backend, while impressive, still doesn't address the fact that he lacks the ability to create time and space for himself vs elite defenses to the extent that 87 and 97 can. I think he's going to be a tremendous scorer regardless, but I think he'll be easier to shut down than those 2.