C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 5

[My3Sons]

S

When was I harping on Bedard? Go to his prospect thread I was one of his biggest supporters early in the season.

But his points alone don't make him generational, so him lighting it up in the backend, while impressive, still doesn't address the fact that he lacks the ability to create time and space for himself vs elite defenses to the extent that 87 and 97 can. I think he's going to be a tremendous scorer regardless, but I think he'll be easier to shut down than those 2.

There will always be something of a disconnect between evaluating numbers and evaluating skillsets. Your point about his lack of ability to create quiet as much time and space as two hall of fame players may very well be valid even if it is a subtle one. I'm sure you'd consider Bedard should be near the top of the list for guys below the McDavid/Crosby tier for doing that sort of thing. I am not sure why folks get so worked up about small distinctions. You are clear that you think he's a great prospect but maybe prefer a few other guys to him in a stratosphere few will ever reach. That's hardly an insult.

 

[Daximus]

When was I harping on Bedard? Go to his prospect thread I was one of his biggest supporters early in the season.

But his points alone don't make him generational, so him lighting it up in the backend, while impressive, still doesn't address the fact that he lacks the ability to create time and space for himself vs elite defenses to the extent that 87 and 97 can. I think he's going to be a tremendous scorer regardless, but I think he'll be easier to shut down than those 2.

Doesn't create time and space for himself? What do you call slipping past defender for tap ins? What do you can deking out some of the best young defenders on the planet not in the NHL and scoring a goal?

I mean he's not a speed demon like McDavid and he's not a puck protector machine like Crosby but he really doesn't need to be. His shot is better that either of theirs at the same age. He's just as good of a stickhandler and he can wheel and snipe better than either of them could at 17. He may not have an insane top speed but he has a deceptively good first step and coupled with his lateral ability he finds space for himself well. Unlike McDavid and Crosby at 17 he is a massive threat from a distance and he's every bit as good at finding open teammates.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

S

There will always be something of a disconnect between evaluating numbers and evaluating skillsets. Your point about his lack of ability to create quiet as much time and space as two hall of fame players may very well be valid even if it is a subtle one. I'm sure you'd consider Bedard should be near the top of the list for guys below the McDavid/Crosby tier for doing that sort of thing. I am not sure why folks get so worked up about small distinctions. You are clear that you think he's a great prospect but maybe prefer a few other guys to him in a stratosphere few will ever reach. That's hardly an insult.

Oh yeah for sure, he's just below that 87/97 tier, which includes guys like Matthews & Hughes. It is surprising people are taking that as an insult but I had a feeling hype fever would take over in Canada and we'd start seeing these sort of over the top reactions to reasonable projections.

I mean I literally said he could be a 60g 120p player yet somehow I'm underrating him lol.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Doesn't create time and space for himself? What do you call slipping past defender for tap ins? What do you can deking out some of the best young defenders on the planet not in the NHL and scoring a goal?

I mean he's not a speed demon like McDavid and he's not a puck protector machine like Crosby but he really doesn't need to be. His shot is better that either of theirs at the same age. He's just as good of a stickhandler and he can wheel and snipe better than either of them could at 17. He may not have an insane top speed but he has a deceptively good first step and coupled with his lateral ability he finds space for himself well. Unlike McDavid and Crosby at 17 he is a massive threat from a distance and he's every bit as good at finding open teammates.

But he has to be able to get his shot off, and against big, mobile defenders, its not so easy to "sneak" by them. We saw that in the gold medal game where he was almost completely neutralized at 5v5. It's not going to be easy for him to find the space necessary to get off that generational release without elite quickness or power.

 

[Daximus]

He has to be able to get off that shot, and against big, mobile defenders, its not so easy to "sneak" by them. We saw that in the gold medal game where he was almost completely neutralized at 5v5. It's not going to be easy for him to find the space necessary to get off that generational release without elite quickness or power.

They also were double covering him pretty much the whole game which opened up a lot of space for his teammates to get in some work. Even when he isn't able to create space for himself, he's creating space for others.

He's every bit as good of a skater as Patty Kane IMO. Not a speedster but doesn't need to be. Not elite at protecting the puck, but doesn't need to be, Their ability to manuever through the zone and high IQ and vision mean that people give them space. The main thing he has over Kane is his shot is lethal from anywhere on the ice. Top of the blueline, bad angle from goaline, slot, circles. Doesn't matter where he is, if he gets a look he's lethal. And I'm pretty confident it's only going to get better.

Everyone always compares people to McDavids speed and they look slow. Well no shit sherlock. Bedard is anything but slow though.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Yeah it's crazy that people would suggest that 60 points is a disaster. McDavid was only on a what 87 point pace his rookie season?

To be fair, McDavid was on pace to finish 3rd in the scoring race that year. Crosby finished 6th in his rookie season.

A generational talent like Bedard will need to do better than 60 points. He likely has to hit 90-100. It's the standard of any rookie generational prospect since the bar is much higher from day one.

It's not a failure if he hits 60 points but it likely means he's not a generational talent.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

They also were double covering him pretty much the whole game which opened up a lot of space for his teammates to get in some work. Even when he isn't able to create space for himself, he's creating space for others.

He's every bit as good of a skater as Patty Kane IMO. Not a speedster but doesn't need to be. Not elite at protecting the puck, but doesn't need to be, Their ability to manuever through the zone and high IQ and vision mean that people give them space. The main thing he has over Kane is his shot is lethal from anywhere on the ice. Top of the blueline, bad angle from goaline, slot, circles. Doesn't matter where he is, if he gets a look he's lethal. And I'm pretty confident it's only going to get better.

Everyone always compares people to McDavids speed and they look slow. Well no shit sherlock. Bedard is anything but slow though.

He's as fast as Kane, but not as agile and not as good with the puck (though obviously he's still friggen crazy with the puck).

I don't find Kane and Bedard to be all that dissimilar in terms of prospects, especially if Bedard plays more on the wing. Bedard's shot is a difference maker but Kane's hands and elusiveness can back off defenses like nobody else.

 

[Daximus]

To be fair, McDavid was on pace to finish 3rd in the scoring race that year. Crosby finished 6th in his rookie season.

A generational talent like Bedard will need to do better than 60 points. He likely has to hit 90-100. It's the standard of any rookie generational prospect since the bar is much higher from day one.

It's not a failure if he hits 60 points but it likely means he's not a generational talent.

I'm not going to say one way or another if he is. But if he gets 60 points and all the sudden people start calling him a bust, Those people are f***ing morons.

He's as fast as Kane, but not as agile and not as good with the puck (though obviously he's still friggen crazy with the puck).

I don't find Kane and Bedard to be all that dissimilar in terms of prospects, especially if Bedard plays more on the wing. Bedard's shot is a difference maker but Kane's hands and elusiveness can back off defenses like nobody else.

He's every bit as agile as guys like Kane and Marner. Which is one of the hallmarks to making it in the NHL as a smaller player. Without that agility they'd likely get lit up by bigger players. The problems for the bigger players is they can't line them up if they wanted to because their to fast to be able to do that.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'm not going to say one way or another if he is. But if he gets 60 points and all the sudden people start calling him a bust, Those people are f***ing morons.



He's every bit as agile as guys like Kane and Marner. Which is one of the hallmarks to making it in the NHL as a smaller player. Without that agility they'd likely get lit up by bigger players. The problems for the bigger players is they can't line them up if they wanted to because their to fast to be able to do that.

I think he's a bit heavier on his feet then them. Which makes sense because he's built like a truck compared to those guys. He's stronger on pucks as a result.

 

[prongertheman9]

When was I harping on Bedard? Go to his prospect thread I was one of his biggest supporters early in the season.

But his points alone don't make him generational, so him lighting it up in the backend, while impressive, still doesn't address the fact that he lacks the ability to create time and space for himself vs elite defenses to the extent that 87 and 97 can. I think he's going to be a tremendous scorer regardless, but I think he'll be easier to shut down than those 2.

McDavid had 65 goals 169 points in only 67 games during his draft year. Crosby 80 goals 199 points in 75 games.

Bedard is nowhere near that. He's just not on that level.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

@prongertheman9 TIL that saying a player is worse then the two best players in the last 20+ years is "harping on them".

 

[J bo Jeans]

Hughes' domination in his draft year is real data, that actually happened. And projecting that to the NHL is no more hypothetical than projecting Bedard's NHL numbers. The WHL isn't the end all be all. When two prospects play in different leagues you have to compare them somehow. Hughes' numbers in the UDNTDP were just as impressive as Bedard's in the WHL using that method, so that supports my opinion.

Your opinion that he is on McDavid and Crosby's level is not supported by his WHL production. The only thing that supports that comparison is that 3 game sample in the round robin where he dropped 17 points. You also continue to fail to recognize that Bedard does have some risk to him becoming generational, just like Tavares. If he struggled to get to the middle of the ice against the Czech defense, he very well could struggle more than expected vs NHL defensemen.

Except it is???? Mcdavids ppg in his draft year was 2.55, all while playing on the most stacked team in the CHL and being outscored by his own teammate granted with more games played.

Bedards ppg this year is 2.41 and honestly I'd argue its more impressive than 2.55 considering who hes playing with.

Crosby blows them both out of the water.

 

[nbwingsfan]

But he has to be able to get his shot off, and against big, mobile defenders, its not so easy to "sneak" by them. We saw that in the gold medal game where he was almost completely neutralized at 5v5. It's not going to be easy for him to find the space necessary to get off that generational release without elite quickness or power.

You’re using a 1 game sample, where against the same team earlier on he was by far the most dangerous player on the ice (including scoring) and he had no trouble against US, Sweden, Finland, Slovakia as well.

 

[prongertheman9]

@prongertheman9 TIL that saying a player is worse then the two best players in the last 20+ years is "harping on them".

You have been harping on his production as a reason he is not in their level for quite some time now. Just curious what production is needed to change your mind and consider him generational, since you continuously bring it up.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

If chicago wins him man will everybody be pissed off
I know i will!

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Except it is???? Mcdavids ppg in his draft year was 2.55, all while playing on the most stacked team in the CHL and being outscored by his own teammate granted with more games played.

Bedards ppg this year is 2.41 and honestly I'd argue its more impressive than 2.55 considering who hes playing with.

Crosby blows them both out of the water.

After his 6 point game, his pace is closer. But still behind Kane, let alone McDavid and Crosby.

But like I said earlier, it's not just points that are keeping him out of that tier IMO:

But his points alone don't make him generational, so him lighting it up in the backend, while impressive, still doesn't address the fact that he lacks the ability to create time and space for himself vs elite defenses to the extent that 87 and 97 can. I think he's going to be a tremendous scorer regardless, but I think he'll be easier to shut down than those 2.

You have been harping on his production as a reason he is not in their level for quite some time now. Just curious what production is needed to change your mind and consider him generational, since you continuously bring it up.

I already answered this.

 

[93LEAFS]

If he's truly generational, he should probably be benchmarked against Crosby and McDavid, who either finished top 10 in scoring their rookie years or were on track too. Both won the Hart Trophy on their ELC's. Ovi you can't really benchmark against as he entered the league in his D+2 season, managed to win a Hart on his ELC, but it was his d+4 year.

If you want to give him more leeway, and think he's in that tier slightly below, a fair benchmark is likely Matthews (20th in pts his rookie year, while 2nd in goal scoring), Patrick Kane (32nd), Eichel (59th) and MacKinnon (35th). Kane is a winger, and MacKinnon broke in as one and had some lumps transitioning back after. Eichel is the lowest of the 4, but also was a full-time center (like Matthews, McDavid, I believe Crosby got brief spells on the wing as a rookie), and was on an absolutely horrific team roster-wise.

I personally think he's closer to the latter than the former. But, it will be interesting to watch play out.

 

[prongertheman9]

After his 6 point game, his pace is closer. But still behind Kane, let alone McDavid and Crosby.

But like I said earlier, it's not just points that are keeping him out of that tier IMO:



I already answered this.

So why do you keep being up points then????

 

[daver]

When was I harping on Bedard? Go to his prospect thread I was one of his biggest supporters early in the season.

But his points alone don't make him generational, so him lighting it up in the backend, while impressive, still doesn't address the fact that he lacks the ability to create time and space for himself vs elite defenses to the extent that 87 and 97 can. I think he's going to be a tremendous scorer regardless, but I think he'll be easier to shut down than those 2.

So far they do. He is putting up "generational" numbers. That you think he won't be at Crosby/McDavid level in the NHL is not an excuse to downplay his pre-draft resume.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So far they do. He is putting up "generational" numbers. That you think he won't be at Crosby/McDavid level in the NHL is not an excuse to downplay his pre-draft resume.

Was Patrick Kane a generational prospect? Because his numbers are even better than Bedard's.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So why do you keep being up points then????

1. Because it's not a totally irrelevant factor. If he was already at 100 points I think some of the the stuff I mentioned can be more easily overlooked.

2. To highlight how he really hasn't separated himself all that much from the draft years of guys like Hughes, Matthews, Kane, Eichel etc.

 

[Love]

Was Patrick Kane a generational prospect? Because his numbers are even better than Bedard's.

This is why people call you out then you’re like “What??? What did I do?? I never said that!!”

 

[prongertheman9]

1. Because it's not a totally irrelevant factor. If he was already at 100 points I think some of the the stuff I mentioned can be more easily overlooked.

2. To highlight how he really hasn't separated himself all that much from the draft years of guys like Hughes, Matthews, Kane, Eichel etc.

Despite your contradictions we are starting to make progress, as you finally admit that there is a production level that would help overlook your concerns. What is the production level needed? (For the 3rd time). Just trying to get something in writing here so you can’t move the goalposts and play victim in the future.

So far we have from you: “until Bedard averages 3.5 ppg a game over a 25 game sample like Crosby, he isn’t on that level”.

 

[Bubbles]

That doesn’t rhyme, sound good or particularly make sense. Back to the drawing board?

How bout “Go full Pejorative Slur for bedard”

I'll stick with my slogan under my username, which I've had since around 2018.

Although TSN appears to be using the very lame "On Guard for Bedard".

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

This is why people call you out then you’re like “What??? What did I do?? I never said that!!”

Yeah, how dare I ask questions.

Despite your contradictions we are starting to make progress, as you finally admit that there is a production level that would help overlook your concerns. What is the production level needed? (For the 3rd time). Just trying to get something in writing here so you can’t move the goalposts and play victim in the future.

So far we have from you: “until Bedard averages 3.5 ppg a game over a 25 game sample like Crosby, he isn’t on that level”.

Like I said, there isn't a number, because no amount of production fundamentally changes the type of prospect he is.