peconcan
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- Apr 24, 2020
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Would like to see Bedard play a top 6 role at the world championships. Laine put up 12 points as a 17 year old, Bedard could beat that if he got the right opportunities with Canada.
C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 5
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NYIschremp44
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That doesn’t rhyme, sound good or particularly make sense. Back to the drawing board?
How bout “Go full Pejorative Slur for bedard”
LePerilsofPerreault
Registered User
No it wouldn't. That should be viewed as the floor for him.
A PPG forward is Top 40 in today's league, McDavid and Crosby, his closest peers as prospects, were Top 10 point producers in their first years. I think Bedard has Top 20 (100 points) potential.
He is trending towards being a player who produces regardless of who is on his line. Crosby produced at his best pace as a rookie with Colby Armstrong and Andy Hilbert on his line.
Not sure why Hughes is being touted as a comparison. He was not on Bedard's level as a prospect when looking at pre-draft offensive numbers, He was similar to Matthews/Eichel.
- Apr 27, 2005
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Hughes' draft year NHLe was actually slightly ahead of what we've seen so far from Bedard, according to Bader's NHLe model.
Matthews's was even higher:
Pretty hard to discount the fact that Hughes played with the single most talented NTDP team in history that produced 7 of the first 15 picks that year. I think Hughes is a phenomenal player in his own right, but lets not pretend that Bedard's numbers wouldn't be higher in this model if he was playing with similar players as Hughes did in his draft year.
Let's go with real data. Hughes did not do anything in the U18 program as a 16 year old that Matthews and Eichel did not do themselves. All three were the clear best offensive players on those teams and certainly established themselves as "Franchise player" prospects.
Noone views Matthews and Eichel as being on McDavid/Crosby level. If anything, Hughes' ceiling was lower given the size difference between him and Matthews/Eichel.
Bedard is producing at a pace that is closer to McDavid/Crosby level than any other CHL prospect we have seen in the past 30 years and has clearly shown an "it" factor along with no obvious question marks (e.g. Tavares' skating).
Breakfast of Champs
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NHLe is so dumb to take as the gospel or even anything more than one of many ways to evaluate a player.
Bedard is clearly a tier ahead of Jack Hughes, who was also an amazing prospect, same for Matthews.
Bedard is routinely garnering the generational tag now , from scouts , media , fans , everyone. Button just labelled him as the first generational since McDavid, the athletic had an article that said basically every scout agrees he's a generational talent and that they can see McDavid/Crosby level impact. The others were great, but not like this
Bedard is clearly a tier ahead of Jack Hughes, who was also an amazing prospect, same for Matthews.
Bedard is routinely garnering the generational tag now , from scouts , media , fans , everyone. Button just labelled him as the first generational since McDavid, the athletic had an article that said basically every scout agrees he's a generational talent and that they can see McDavid/Crosby level impact. The others were great, but not like this
- Apr 27, 2005
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That is real data. There's a very real chance that Hughes would have put up Bedard like numbers if he played in the CHL instead of the USNTDP.
I don't see Bedard on the Crosby or McDavid tier either. That's an unrealistic expectation as his numbers aren't as good and he lacks the dynamic ability of those 2. With his lack of elite skating ability, his size is a serious question mark, just as much as Tavares skating was. We saw that how much he struggled to get to the middle of the ice at 5v5 vs that big, mobile Czech defense. That's what NHL defenses are going to look like every night.
I see him on the Hughes / Matthews / Eichel level. The data and eye test support that. The only data point that suggests he's above that tier is a 3 game round robin sample in the WJC where he scored 17 points.
Not sure you know the difference between real and hypothetical.
You are basing this on your opinion that he is not on Crosby or McDavid tier despite unprecedented WHL numbers by a 17 year old and a WJC performance that point to him being on their level. The data, not hypothetical scenarios, supports this.
Whether he doesn't do as well in the NHL as his numbers would indicate is another thing but to position him on a Hughes / Matthews / Eichel level is not reasonable.
Mathieukferland
Registered User
I don’t particularly care what boffins say, just on pure eye test Bédard destroyed the WJC and WHL in manner that has never been seen ever by any prospect. Even taking away the Germany and Austria games, 10pts in 5 games. Now I don’t think he will be as good as McDavid at the NHL level, but to suggest Hughes or Matthews were as dominant as prospects based on hot dogs consumed perX60 is very off base
SwedishFire
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Hughes' domination in his draft year is real data, that actually happened. And projecting that to the NHL is no more hypothetical than projecting Bedard's NHL numbers. The WHL isn't the end all be all. When two prospects play in different leagues you have to compare them somehow. Hughes' numbers in the UDNTDP were just as impressive as Bedard's in the WHL using that method, so that supports my opinion.
Your opinion that he is on McDavid and Crosby's level is not supported by his WHL production. The only thing that supports that comparison is that 3 game sample in the round robin where he dropped 17 points. You also continue to fail to recognize that Bedard does have some risk to him becoming generational, just like Tavares. If he struggled to get to the middle of the ice against the Czech defense, he very well could struggle more than expected vs NHL defensemen.
- Apr 27, 2005
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How would you propose comparing performance in different leagues?
And it wasn't any more dominant than Matthews/Eichel, both of whom were not touted as being "generational" (e.g. McDavid/Crosby tier) nor have done anything to reach that level in the NHL.
That is the reasonable comparison to make rather than hypothetically placing Hughes in the WHL.
The best comparison to what he is doing in the W is McDavid in the O. It is statistically disingenuous to deny that. Crosby was more dominant vs. his peers but I would say this was a bit inflated due to a lack of high end talent in those specific years in the Q.
He was solid against the Czechs in their first game and would not have been in the position to have an off-game in the Gold Medal game if not for his heroics.
Tavares had been dropped from the "generational tier" by his draft year.
Again, Hughes played for the most dominant NTDP team in history. Put 6 other top 15 picks on Regina and imagine Bedard's production. He has points on 50% of his team's goals.
What is the source for this?
Here is what I found: Updated Translation Factors - Hockey Abstract
It says it doesn't use USHL numbers.
Mathieukferland
Registered User
It’s not ideal but international competition is a good barrier. I know in Hughes’ case he was playing not at 100% during his WJC, but I doubt fully healthy he does the things even Matthews did at his draft year WJC, let alone Bédard.
Another good barometer for NTDP prospects vs CHL prospects is major Junior statistics. It’s hard to judge how their (NTDP) games against NCAA games would transfer over to Canadian Major Junior, but USHL stats let’s say (even though the CHL leagues are stronger) are good starting point. Hughes and Matthews both had 2 PPG their last season against USHL competition (Matthews admittedly is slightly different because he is a late) , which Bédard is currently blowing out of the water at 2.41 PPG, all whilst playing for an awful Regina whilst the other two were playing for an all star team. It’s not an exact science but that’s how I would compare them.
Maple Leaf
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Hughes was only two months older. Bedard is on the early side.
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