Brady Tkachuk vs Mitch Marner
- Thread starter The Professional
- Start date
Blatant mischaracterization of what I've said but sure.
I claimed Brady Tkachuk is a poor finisher based on him consistently underperforming his INDIVIDUAL expected goal metrics.
I have also pointed out his struggles in terms of generating quality offensive chances this year. I have also acknowledged his excellence in this area in previous years
You then claimed the models overrate Brady Tkachuk's individual chance quality, but underrate his teammates chance quality with him based on his "netfront prescence".
So those are 2 claims.
I responded to both:
With your claim that the models are overrating his individual chance quality, I said, sure, let's go with that assumption. In that case, his chance generation is worse than I had previously thought, and his on ice xGoals share is inflated by your own admission. If a "perfect" model should value brady tkachuks chances less, then the share of quality chances ottawa gets with him on the ice is less than the current models show. Simple. He can be a better finisher and worse play driver than I previously thought if that makes you happy.
Claim B: Brady Tkachuk's netfront prescense causes these models to underrate the quality of chances of his teammates when he's on the ice.
I disproved this claim by showing, that throughout his career, Brady Tkachuk's teammates have NOT outperformed what the models say their chances should generate in terms of goals.
At no point did I ascertain Tkachuk's value to his linemates in this. I simply disproved the claim that Brady Tkachuk's netfront presence is causing expected goals models to underrate the quality of his teammates chances with him on the ice.
- Oct 26, 2019
- 2,078
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Im not Leafs fan and I absolutely have a lot of questions about how Marner has played when it's mattered but ... these two players aren't in the same class or tier. Marner is clearly better.
Unless you bring in contracts or a specific scenario where your team already has a lot of soft skill and needs
Unless you bring in contracts or a specific scenario where your team already has a lot of soft skill and needs
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
I voted Marner since it's only for this season and Ottawa needs to make the playoffs so I'd hope that Marner creates more offense with his playmaking (+ PP ability)
Going forward or contracts included it's easily Tkachuk though
Going forward or contracts included it's easily Tkachuk though
The Professional
Registered User
So far this season:
Tkachuk
GP G A PTS PPG
11 7 8 15 1.36
Marner
GP G A PTS PPG
12 2 11 13 1.08
Tkachuk
GP G A PTS PPG
11 7 8 15 1.36
Marner
GP G A PTS PPG
12 2 11 13 1.08
dirtydanglez
Registered User
- Oct 30, 2022
- 5,443
- 5,502
habs and leafs are worse but they have much larger fanbases. sens and nj have to be near the top.
BoardsofCanada
Registered User
Marner is quick and nimble but undersized. Brady is a bull on skates. Pick your weapon. It's hard to compare them. Brady, IMO, is the more well rounded player. He's physically imposing and brings an offensive touch. Marner is smart with soft, playmaker hands but arguably a one dimensional player. It's which ever player you'd prefer. I can see an argument for both.
How is brady more well rounded?
Offense: Marner
Defense: Marner
PP: Marner
PK: Marner
BoardsofCanada
Registered User
You're not as knowledgeable about the NHL game as you think you are. I'm also guessing you never watch Brady Tkachuk and the Ottawa Senators. If you did, you'd have a better appreciation of what he brings.
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
Since 2022-23, among 390 forwards with at least 1000 ES minutes
CF/60 : Brady 7th - Marner 84th
SF/60 : Brady 6th - Marner 97th
GF/60 : Brady 44th - Marner 27th
xGF/60 : Brady 8th - Marner 43th
SCF/60 : Brady 12th - Marner 17th
HDCF/60 : Brady 11th - Marner 27th
CA/60 : Brady 126th - Marner 80th
SA/60 : Brady 179th - Marner 59th
GA/60 : Brady 333th - Marner 181th
xGA/60 : Brady 221th - Marner 233th
SCA/60 : Brady 230th - Marner 89th
HDCA/60 : Brady 208th - Marner 141th
Why isn't clearly in Marner's favor? Is it because Tkachuk has better linemates? Want to dig into goal scoring and ES production vs salary?
Those defensive ones don't quite check out. Marner has had a better xGA/60.
Now, it is closer than many think offensively due to tkachuk's play driving, but I'll still give the edge to marner, primarily because of his individual production and better finishing results. (the same reason I don't put Bratt ahead of Marner as an EV offensive weapon)
Defensively, on the PP, and on the PK it is not close.
umma gumma
Registered User
- Apr 8, 2005
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Nor is it close when it comes to physical play and willingness/ability to play in the dirty areas of the ice.
Both have their warts.
Brady Tkachuk USES his physical play to put up the defensive results and offensive results that he does. So, when I look at his offensive and defensive results, the physicality is already included in that.
There is no reason to double count it after that.
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
- 26,308
- 13,622
Reality Czech
Registered User
- Apr 17, 2017
- 5,862
- 9,463
And yet Brady is heavily leading this poll just like the last one. It's common sense that players on stacked offensive teams get a boost in their individual stat totals. Replace Marner with Tkachuk on Toronto and the Leafs aren't any worse off and might even be better.
At least you're pointing out real stats instead of fancy advanced stats that are often misleading. Put Brady on a better team and he'd be a force. Let's see if people change their tune once Brady scores 40+ and helps the Sens get into the playoffs this year.
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
Tkachuk is one of the best forwards around the net, he creates havoc which leads to plenty of scoring chances for his line. As evidenced below, he's also a pretty good goal scorer, much better than Marner who is a great playmaker but as you can see, the separation is not as huge as it is in goal scoring ability
Goals/60 : Tkachuk 40th with 1.19, Marner 187th with 0.65
ixG/60 : Tkachuk 3rd with 1.38, Marner 314th with 0.63
Points/60 : Tkachuk 32nd with 2.64, Marner 12th with 2.91
First Assists/60 : Tkachuk 25th with 1.01, Marner 3rd with 1.42
Second Assists/60 : Tkachuk 155th with 0.44, Marner 29th with 0.64
Tkachuk is better at scoring goals and creating high danger chances, Marner produces more points but makes 2.7 AAV more per season.
Note : and I verified again regarding xGA/60, Tkachuk is at 2.90 and Marner at 2.93
Marner is better defensively but really not the level made out to be in the medias. It doesn't take into account how bad the Sens goaltending has been and the quality of the team these 2 players were playing for. Now and going forward, the tune might start to change
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xGA/60
ixG/60 : Tkachuk 3rd with 1.38, Marner 314th with 0.63
Brady Tkachuk has underperformed his expected goals metrics every single year.
Marner has outperformed his every single year.
Also marner is at 0.84 goals/60 EV since 22-23???
Again, your numbers simply appear to be WRONG.
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
- 26,308
- 13,622
5 on 5
Under new coach Brady has better xGA/60,
Team wise good for sixth in the league today.
24/25
23/24 until today
22/23 until today
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Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
You're set up on 5v5
Is it supposed to be a negative? Tkachuk's game is exhausting for opposing D-men and goalies
He is a volume shooter/everything. He keeps coming at you until it goes in.
My numbers come from Natural Stat Trick. I don't know where you're taking this but it's not even on the same filters as in your first table... lol
You're set up on 5v5
Is it supposed to be a negative? Tkachuk's game is exhausting for opposing D-men and goalies
He is a volume shooter/everything. He keeps coming at you until it goes in.
My numbers come from Natural Stat Trick. I don't know where you're taking this but it's not even on the same filters as in your first table... lol
A) I'd recommend using evolving hockey
B) if you are using NST, use 5v5. NST includes empty net situations in their EV numbers
Which in this case is what is skewing the totals massively.
