Brady Tkachuk vs Mitch Marner

[Golden_Jet]

My fav part of these threads are holding Marner accountable for only being PPG in the playoffs while ignoring Brady can't sniff the playoffs and assuming if he got there he will be a playoff GOAT.

Let us know when he gets to PPG.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

My fav part of these threads are holding Marner accountable for only being PPG in the playoffs while ignoring Brady can't sniff the playoffs and assuming if he got there he will be a playoff GOAT.

Marner is not ppg in the playoffs though

 

[Korpse]

I'm talking about xGoals for in this specific section, not share.

You claimed Tkachuk's netfront prescense would create better quality chances for his teammates that the models cannot pick up.

I showed you that this has not been the case. If it was the case, Tkachuk's teammates would be outscoring their expected goals metrics. They have not.

The discussion started with you mentioning his goal share would drop. Yes it’s likely as it’s an element that is not accounted for in xG. Your making big assumption that the models test at 100% we know that they do not. xG is a measure of individual unblocked shot attempts. Subtracting a players ixG from their on ice xG to determine their value to their linemates is so far beyond its design and an egregious misuse of stats. It’s insane.

 

[Sasso09]

Can't think of a more insecure fanbase than the Sens. Just enjoy Brady Tkachuk.

Habs and Leafs both got them beat tbh

 

[dgibb10]

The discussion started with you mentioning his goal share would drop. Yes it’s likely as it’s an element that is not accounted for in xG. Your making big assumption that the models test at 100% we know that they do not. xG is a measure of individual unblocked shot attempts. Subtracting a players ixG from their on ice xG to determine their value to their linemates is so far beyond its design and an egregious misuse of stats. It’s insane.

Blatant mischaracterization of what I've said but sure.

I claimed Brady Tkachuk is a poor finisher based on him consistently underperforming his INDIVIDUAL expected goal metrics.

I have also pointed out his struggles in terms of generating quality offensive chances this year. I have also acknowledged his excellence in this area in previous years

You then claimed the models overrate Brady Tkachuk's individual chance quality, but underrate his teammates chance quality with him based on his "netfront prescence".

So those are 2 claims.

I responded to both:

With your claim that the models are overrating his individual chance quality, I said, sure, let's go with that assumption. In that case, his chance generation is worse than I had previously thought, and his on ice xGoals share is inflated by your own admission. If a "perfect" model should value brady tkachuks chances less, then the share of quality chances ottawa gets with him on the ice is less than the current models show. Simple. He can be a better finisher and worse play driver than I previously thought if that makes you happy.

Claim B: Brady Tkachuk's netfront prescense causes these models to underrate the quality of chances of his teammates when he's on the ice.

I disproved this claim by showing, that throughout his career, Brady Tkachuk's teammates have NOT outperformed what the models say their chances should generate in terms of goals.


At no point did I ascertain Tkachuk's value to his linemates in this. I simply disproved the claim that Brady Tkachuk's netfront presence is causing expected goals models to underrate the quality of his teammates chances with him on the ice.

 

[geebster]

Im not Leafs fan and I absolutely have a lot of questions about how Marner has played when it's mattered but ... these two players aren't in the same class or tier. Marner is clearly better.

Unless you bring in contracts or a specific scenario where your team already has a lot of soft skill and needs

 

[Xspyrit]

I voted Marner since it's only for this season and Ottawa needs to make the playoffs so I'd hope that Marner creates more offense with his playmaking (+ PP ability)

Going forward or contracts included it's easily Tkachuk though

 

[HarryLime]

Tkachuk

Marner is a *****

 

[The Professional]

So far this season:

Tkachuk
GP G A PTS PPG
11 7 8 15 1.36

Marner
GP G A PTS PPG
12 2 11 13 1.08

 

[elmaco]

Brady cause he's cheaper.

 

[dirtydanglez]

Worse with the habs , especially this summer.

habs and leafs are worse but they have much larger fanbases. sens and nj have to be near the top.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

Marner is quick and nimble but undersized. Brady is a bull on skates. Pick your weapon. It's hard to compare them. Brady, IMO, is the more well rounded player. He's physically imposing and brings an offensive touch. Marner is smart with soft, playmaker hands but arguably a one dimensional player. It's which ever player you'd prefer. I can see an argument for both.

 

[dgibb10]

Marner is quick and nimble but undersized. Brady is a bull on skates. Pick your weapon. It's hard to compare them. Brady, IMO, is the more well rounded player. He's physically imposing and brings an offensive touch. Marner is smart with soft, playmaker hands but arguably a one dimensional player. It's which ever player you'd prefer. I can see an argument for both.

How is brady more well rounded?

Offense: Marner
Defense: Marner
PP: Marner
PK: Marner

 

[BoardsofCanada]

How is brady more well rounded?

Offense: Marner
Defense: Marner
PP: Marner
PK: Marner

You're not as knowledgeable about the NHL game as you think you are. I'm also guessing you never watch Brady Tkachuk and the Ottawa Senators. If you did, you'd have a better appreciation of what he brings.

 

[dgibb10]

You're not as knowledgeable about the NHL game as you think you are. I'm also guessing you never watch Brady Tkachuk and the Ottawa Senators. If you did, you'd have a better appreciation of what he brings.

#HITZ

He's not better offensively and he's not better defensively.

 

[Xspyrit]

#HITZ

He's not better offensively and he's not better defensively.

Since 2022-23, among 390 forwards with at least 1000 ES minutes

CF/60 : Brady 7th - Marner 84th
SF/60 : Brady 6th - Marner 97th
GF/60 : Brady 44th - Marner 27th
xGF/60 : Brady 8th - Marner 43th
SCF/60 : Brady 12th - Marner 17th
HDCF/60 : Brady 11th - Marner 27th

CA/60 : Brady 126th - Marner 80th
SA/60 : Brady 179th - Marner 59th
GA/60 : Brady 333th - Marner 181th
xGA/60 : Brady 221th - Marner 233th
SCA/60 : Brady 230th - Marner 89th
HDCA/60 : Brady 208th - Marner 141th

Why isn't clearly in Marner's favor? Is it because Tkachuk has better linemates? Want to dig into goal scoring and ES production vs salary?

 

[dgibb10]

Since 2022-23, among 390 forwards with at least 1000 ES minutes

CF/60 : Brady 7th - Marner 84th
SF/60 : Brady 6th - Marner 97th
GF/60 : Brady 44th - Marner 27th
xGF/60 : Brady 8th - Marner 43th
SCF/60 : Brady 12th - Marner 17th
HDCF/60 : Brady 11th - Marner 27th

CA/60 : Brady 126th - Marner 80th
SA/60 : Brady 179th - Marner 59th
GA/60 : Brady 333th - Marner 181th
xGA/60 : Brady 221th - Marner 233th
SCA/60 : Brady 230th - Marner 89th
HDCA/60 : Brady 208th - Marner 141th

Why isn't clearly in Marner's favor? Is it because Tkachuk has better linemates? Want to dig into goal scoring and ES production vs salary?

Those defensive ones don't quite check out. Marner has had a better xGA/60.

Now, it is closer than many think offensively due to tkachuk's play driving, but I'll still give the edge to marner, primarily because of his individual production and better finishing results. (the same reason I don't put Bratt ahead of Marner as an EV offensive weapon)

Defensively, on the PP, and on the PK it is not close.

 

[umma gumma]

Those defensive ones don't quite check out. Marner has had a better xGA/60.

Now, it is closer than many think offensively due to tkachuk's play driving, but I'll still give the edge to marner, primarily because of his individual production and better finishing results. (the same reason I don't put Bratt ahead of Marner as an EV offensive weapon)

Defensively, on the PP, and on the PK it is not close.

Nor is it close when it comes to physical play and willingness/ability to play in the dirty areas of the ice.

Both have their warts.

 

[dgibb10]

Nor is it close when it comes to physical play and willingness/ability to play in the dirty areas of the ice.

Both have their warts.

Brady Tkachuk USES his physical play to put up the defensive results and offensive results that he does. So, when I look at his offensive and defensive results, the physicality is already included in that.

There is no reason to double count it after that.

 

[DueDiligence]

Can't think of a more insecure fanbase than the Sens. Just enjoy Brady Tkachuk.

you are delusional

 

[Golden_Jet]

Can't think of a more insecure fanbase than the Sens. Just enjoy Brady Tkachuk.

I’d say the habs this summer.

 

[Reality Czech]

He’s a -58, Marner is a +110

Tkachuk would have to score over 2.0 ppg over his next 140 games to catch Marner in points, and that would only be possible if Marner retired tomorrow.

Marner has 9 short handed goals

Tkachuk? Has he ever played while short handed?

Marner has never missed the playoffs

Tkachuk has never made the playoffs

Tkachuk averages 65 points per 82

Marner averages 90+ per 82

It’s not at all remotely close

And yet Brady is heavily leading this poll just like the last one. It's common sense that players on stacked offensive teams get a boost in their individual stat totals. Replace Marner with Tkachuk on Toronto and the Leafs aren't any worse off and might even be better.

At least you're pointing out real stats instead of fancy advanced stats that are often misleading. Put Brady on a better team and he'd be a force. Let's see if people change their tune once Brady scores 40+ and helps the Sens get into the playoffs this year.

 

[Xspyrit]

Those defensive ones don't quite check out. Marner has had a better xGA/60.

Now, it is closer than many think offensively due to tkachuk's play driving, but I'll still give the edge to marner, primarily because of his individual production and better finishing results. (the same reason I don't put Bratt ahead of Marner as an EV offensive weapon)

Defensively, on the PP, and on the PK it is not close.

Tkachuk is one of the best forwards around the net, he creates havoc which leads to plenty of scoring chances for his line. As evidenced below, he's also a pretty good goal scorer, much better than Marner who is a great playmaker but as you can see, the separation is not as huge as it is in goal scoring ability

Goals/60 : Tkachuk 40th with 1.19, Marner 187th with 0.65
ixG/60 : Tkachuk 3rd with 1.38, Marner 314th with 0.63

Points/60 : Tkachuk 32nd with 2.64, Marner 12th with 2.91
First Assists/60 : Tkachuk 25th with 1.01, Marner 3rd with 1.42
Second Assists/60 : Tkachuk 155th with 0.44, Marner 29th with 0.64

Tkachuk is better at scoring goals and creating high danger chances, Marner produces more points but makes 2.7 AAV more per season.

Note : and I verified again regarding xGA/60, Tkachuk is at 2.90 and Marner at 2.93

Marner is better defensively but really not the level made out to be in the medias. It doesn't take into account how bad the Sens goaltending has been and the quality of the team these 2 players were playing for. Now and going forward, the tune might start to change

 

[dgibb10]

Tkachuk is one of the best forwards around the net, he creates havoc which leads to plenty of scoring chances for his line. As evidenced below, he's also a pretty good goal scorer, much better than Marner who is a great playmaker but as you can see, the separation is not as huge as it is in goal scoring ability

Goals/60 : Tkachuk 40th with 1.19, Marner 187th with 0.65
ixG/60 : Tkachuk 3rd with 1.38, Marner 314th with 0.63

Points/60 : Tkachuk 32nd with 2.64, Marner 12th with 2.91
First Assists/60 : Tkachuk 25th with 1.01, Marner 3rd with 1.42
Second Assists/60 : Tkachuk 155th with 0.44, Marner 29th with 0.64

Tkachuk is better at scoring goals and creating high danger chances, Marner produces more points but makes 3.3 AAV more per season.

Note : and I verified again regarding xGA/60, Tkachuk is at 2.90 and Marner at 2.93

Marner is better defensively but really not the level made out to be in the medias. It doesn't take into account how bad the Sens goaltending has been and the quality of the team these 2 players were playing for. Now and going forward, the tune might start to change

xGA/60

ixG/60 : Tkachuk 3rd with 1.38, Marner 314th with 0.63

Brady Tkachuk has underperformed his expected goals metrics every single year.
Marner has outperformed his every single year.

Also marner is at 0.84 goals/60 EV since 22-23???

Again, your numbers simply appear to be WRONG.

 

[luiginb]

Even Berube would vote Tkachuk here